20230714_华创证券_航运行业深度研究报告:大物流时代内贸集运投资格局享受潜力_47页.pdf
2009 1210 2023 07 14 21+1*20192021 13.7%10.0%12.2%22 4.1%2 CR3 80%3 a b 1 1 20172022 CAGR 20%2 3 2022 21.4 34.2%4 22 70%10%23-25 60%2 1 2 2019 3 1 2022 76.7%56.3%2023 7 2.78 TEU 22.9%5.6%2 2022 27.4 23.4 20212022 22.7%25.5%1 2-3 2 a b 9-10 021-20572539 S0360516090002 S0360522100002 玥 010-63214633%()15 0.00()4,328.20 0.47()3,330.31 0.47%1M 6M 12M 8.6%5.6%1.8%7.7%9.5%15.7%2023 VLCC 2023-05-20-21%-8%4%16%22/07 22/09 22/11 23/02 23/04 23/072022-07-082023-07-07 300 2009 1210 21 1 CR3 80%2 1 2 3 1 2-3 2 a b 9-10 4 XVAZyRnQtQrQpRnOrMqPnM6MaOaQoMpPnPsRkPnNpQkPnMsOaQoPsRxNtQwOvPmQoR 2009 1210 3+.7.7 1.7 2.9.13.16 1.17 2.20.22“”.22 1.22 2.27 3.29.32 1.32 2.35.39.43.43 1.43 2.43.44.44 2009 1210 4 1.7 2.7 3.8 4 TEU.9 5.9 6.10 7 700TEU TEU%.10 8 TEU.11 9 TEU.11 10 PDCI CCFI.12 11 PDCI%.12 12 2019%.13 13.14 14.14 15 2023.15 16“FAX2”.16 17 GDP%.16 18 TEU%.17 19%.17 20 2021%.17 21“”.18 22.19 23/.19 24%.19 25.20 26%.20 27.20 28.21 29 TEU%.22 30.22 31.23 32.23 33.24 2009 1210 5 34 2022%.24 35%.25 36%.25 37%.25 38%.26 39%.26 40 ROE.26 41.26 42%.26 43.27 44.27 45 TEU%.27 46.28 47%.28 48 CNPI.28 49.28 50/TEU%.29 51%.30 52 TEU%.30 53%.31 54/TEU.31 55.32 56%.33 57%.33 58%.34 59%.34 60%.35 61%.35 62%.35 63.36 64.37 65.37 66%.38 67%.38 68 TEU%.38 2009 1210 6 69 TEU%.38 70 TEU/TEU.39 71 2022.39 72 2023 7 TEU.39 73.40 74.40 75%.40 76%.40 77%.41 78%.41 79%.41 80.41 81.41 82.42 83.42 84.42 85.42 86.43 87 PDCI.44 2009 1210 7+1 D-D CY-CY CY-D D-CY 1 2 2009 1210 8 3 3 2022 2.60 TEU 0.35 TEU 2009 1210 9 4 TEU Wind 5 Wind 2*0500010000150002000025000300002012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 TEU TEU 800900100011001200130014001500160017001800100012001400160018002000220024002600280030002013-032013-062013-092013-122014-032014-062014-092014-122015-032015-062015-092015-122016-032016-062016-092016-122017-032017-062017-092017-122018-032018-062018-092018-122019-032019-062019-092019-122020-032020-062020-092020-122021-032021-062021-092021-122022-032022-062022-092022-122023-03 TEU PDCI 2009 1210 10 6 1 2 a 2018 2021 2018-19 2020 2021 700TEU 78.8 TEU 1.2%2022 7 700TEU TEU%Wind 44.8 50.3 49.2 55.2 58.2 60.5 71.6 77.1 79.7 78.8 83.0 12.3%-2.2%12.3%5.4%4.0%18.3%7.7%3.4%-1.2%5.3%-5%0%5%10%15%20%01020304050607080902012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 700TEU TEU YOY 2009 1210 11 b 2022 Clarkson Alphaliner 2022 3 TEU 8 TEU 18 4600TEU 87.3%83.0 TEU 10%8 TEU 9 TEU PDCI 7 7.0 4.6 1.8 3.0 7.8 5.7 9.9 2.4 2.5 4.7 3.0 1.5 1.4 2.3 8.0 2.9 2.7 0.8 1.0 6.2 5.1 0.4 0.9 0.5 1.1 0.9 0.9 3.6 4.2 4.3 0246810122015H1 2015H2 2016H1 2016H2 2017H1 2017H2 2018H1 2018H2 2019H1 2019H2 2020H1 2020H2 2021H1 2021H2 2022E TEU TEU 1.025.482.241.981.159.480123456789102016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 TEU 2009 1210 12 10 PDCI CCFI Wind PDCI 2016 PDCI 20192020 PDCI-1.6%-1.4%-1.7%PDCI 11 PDCI%Wind=/20212022 3 05001,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,0002015-072015-102016-012016-042016-072016-102017-012017-042017-072017-102018-012018-042018-072018-102019-012019-042019-072019-102020-012020-042020-072020-102021-012021-042021-072021-102022-012022-042022-072022-102023-012023-042023-07 PDCI CCFI-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022PDCI 2009 1210 13 2019 30.3%14.1%9.3%12 2019%1 20 2001 2013 2015 30.3%14.1%8.6%9.3%3.7%1.6%2.8%1.6%2.5%2009 1210 14 13 Alphaliner 2023 7 84.5%91.1%14 TEU 1 767 5,154,789 19.0%2 681 4,138,024 15.2%3 625 3,489,142 12.8%4 463 2,928,005 10.8%5 256 1,856,090 6.8%6 213 1,673,600 6.2%7 ONE 214 1,620,453 6.0%8 HMM 72 792,074 2.9%9 93 705,614 2.6%10 139 605,784 2.2%11 124 434,227 1.6%12 90 297,133 1.1%13 101 160,562 0.6%14 66 153,261 0.6%15 X-Press Feeders 84 138,083 0.5%16 30 137,604 0.5%17 27 124,977 0.5%18 89 121,430 0.4%19 Unifeeder 73 113,418 0.4%2009 1210 15 20 74 103,985 0.4%21 87 86,593 0.3%22 TS LINES 40 78,562 0.3%23 Global Feeder Shipping 30 75,969 0.3%24 36 71,758 0.3%25 34 69,992 0.3%Alphaliner 2023 7 2 CR3 80%2023 5 3 40.2%20.6%15.8%CR3 80%15 2023 Clarkson 2021 FAX1 2022 FAX2 2022 3 FAX2 31 113 370 2022 40.2%20.6%15.8%23.5%2009 1210 16 16 FAX2 FAX2 8 31 135 FAX2 8 28 122 FAX2 7 22 58 FAX2 4 19 39 FAX2 4 13 16 31 113 370 2021 2021 2018 1921 22 8767.0 TEU 4.1%GDP 17 GDP%15.5%0.7%-2.8%4.2%8.0%7.4%13.7%10.0%12.2%-4.1%7.8%7.4%7.0%6.8%6.9%6.7%6.0%2.2%8.4%3.0%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 GDP 2009 1210 17 18 TEU%Wind 1 2018 20.7%50%80%19%20 2021%Wind-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%0100020003000400050006000700080009000100002012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 TEU YOY18.6%18.9%19.3%19.6%20.1%20.7%18.0%18.5%19.0%19.5%20.0%20.5%21.0%2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018%33.0%57.7%60.7%68.1%78.0%0%20%40%60%80%100%2009 1210 18 21 2023 1 2023-2025 2022 12 2025 150 85%2020 0.5 15%2022 4 2016 6 2018 80%10%10%2018 10 2018-2020 3C 2009 1210 19 22 2021 74%16%9%2016 2017 77%2020 72%23/24%Wind Wind Clarksons 3.1%2.9%2022 85.5 0.03 0.10 0.49 3.05 0.000.501.001.502.002.503.003.50/78%75%75%75%76%77%77%73%72%74%11%14%14%15%15%14%14%16%16%16%10%10%9%8%8%8%8%9%10%9%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2009 1210 20 3.8%25 26%Wind 2 27 1 0.9 5 14 159 175 1800 0200400600800100012001400160018002000/45.6 49.3 59.6 62.1 63.4 66.6 69.9 74.7 76.2 82.4 85.5 8.2%20.8%4.2%2.1%5.1%5.0%6.9%1.9%8.2%3.8%0%5%10%15%20%25%01020304050607080902012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 YOY 2009 1210 21 2022 1 2021-2025 15%28 2017 1 2017 5 2020 2018 8 80%90%15%20%2021 12 2021-2025 2025 2020 10%12%15%2022 1 2022 12 2025 150 85%2020 0.5 15%2023 1 2023-2025 20132022 25.3%5%30%2009 1210 22 29 TEU%Wind 1 2003 2016 2020 30 40%2023 3 31 39.9%2003 40.6 45.9 59.3 72.4 87.9 118.1 165.0 210.9 292.2 307.3 350.1 13.0%29.2%22.1%21.5%34.3%39.8%27.8%38.6%5.2%13.9%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%0501001502002503003504002012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 TEU YOY 2009 1210 23 31 2023 3 31 32 60 30 160 25 50 15 2009 1210 24 33 34 2022%20172022 CAGR 20%2022 142.1 15.6%2022 87%4.2pcts 13.1%8.13%6.76%6.39%5.29%5.26%4.80%4.10%3.63%3.60%3.54%48.48%2009 1210 25 35%36%53%53%37%2022 27.4 14.0%21.4 34.2%20172022 CAGR 48.7%2022 22.6%2018 13.0pcts ROE 15%18.224.231.140.856.080.899.0104.2122.9142.10%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%50%0204060801001201401602013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 YOY90%84%76%77%78%83%87%10%16%24%23%22%17%13%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 54%66%70%67%60%53%46%34%30%33%40%47%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2009 1210 26 38%39%40 ROE 41 2022 1.4 42%0.6 0.51.34.63.85.58.610.224.127.4-50%0%50%100%150%200%250%300%0510152025302013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 YOY4.53.76.47.915.921.4-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%05101520252017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 YOY36%18%36%54%22%25%29%20%25%29%11%-1%10%38%26%17%22%15%16%23%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 ROE ROE4%3%6%14%14%10%12%14%21%23%3%2%4%11%7%7%9%10%20%19%0%5%10%15%20%25%2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 6.610.712.317.420.231.839.60%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%0510152025303540452016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 YOY 2009 1210 27 22 70%10%20202022 58.9%59.8%73.5%2022 1.42/10%23-25 60%2 Alphaliner 2023 7 9 18 2022 18 56.3%43 TEU 1 463 2,928,005 10.8%2 89 121,430 0.4%3 87 86,593 0.3%Alphaliner 2023 7 9 44 45 TEU%2021 18 4600TEU 2022 10 2022 4 20222024 14.8%38.8%4.7%67%13519123926325026149105130155147 1470%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%0501001502002503002017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 1153.01308.01326.01213.0-10%-5%0%5%10%15%1,0501,1001,1501,2001,2501,3001,3502019 2020 2021 2022 YOY 2009 1210 28 46 DWT 2022 4 4600 18400TEU/356800DWT 2,761,530 14.8%2023 12 4600 55200TEU/1070400DWT 3,831,930 38.8%2024 2 4600 9200TEU/178400DWT 4,010,330 4.7%47%48 CNPI Wind Maritime economics 1000TEU 5%49 Maritime economics 16.124.828.734.022.841.6-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%010203040502017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 YOY6007008009001,0001,1002014-062014-122015-062015-122016-062016-122017-062017-122018-062018-122019-062019-122020-062020-122021-062021-122022-062022-122023-06(CNPI)115 61 37 28 24 21 220182147134 134 13331325327327123720601002003004005006007001200 2600 4300 6500 8500 11000 TEU 2009 1210 29 2018 50/TEU%3 1 2022 2023 2021 7.65 1620188918341764-5%0%5%10%15%20%1,4501,5001,5501,6001,6501,7001,7501,8001,8501,9001,9502017 2018 2019 2020/TEU YOY 2009 1210 30 51%Wind 2022 10 18 4600TEU Clarksons 20 CAGR 6.9%CAGR 5.9%52 TEU%Clarksons 2022 17.0%11.5pcts 6.106.616.756.37 6.357.186.237.777.487.658.4%2.1%-5.6%-0.3%13.0%-13.2%24.7%-3.7%2.3%-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%01234567892012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 YOY-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%0123456 TEU YOY 2009 1210 31 53%2 2020 1764/TEU 3.8%2018 6.6%4600TEU 54/TEU 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 26120025428718822088 208820521620188918341764-2002006001000140018002200260030002017 2018 2019 2020 2009 1210 32 1 2020 12 19 55 Wind 2023 6 6 2021 2022+61.2%+17.7%2022 89.2%8.3%2.5%2009 1210 33 56%57%2022 30.6%1.4%pcts 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 22.7%25.5%411%-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%0204060801001202017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 YOY67%64%74%79%85%89.2%22%22%5%4%2%8.3%11%14%21%17%12%2.5%0%20%40%60%80%100%2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2009 1210 34 58%59%2019 112.3%2022 25.8%2019 1.82 2022 43.68 13.73 29.95 183%2019 3.48 2020 2.14 2022 0.02 0.03%0.7 1.6 2.5 2.7 4.0 5.5 4.9-43.7 12.9 17.7 23.44.2%7.2%8.8%8.6%10.6%8.2%4.9%-86.6%26.7%22.7%25.5%-100%-80%-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%-50-40-30-20-1001020302012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022%16.4%18.3%21.7%22.6%22.8%16.1%11.7%-21.4%-5.2%29.2%30.6%4.4%5.8%7.6%8.5%9.4%7.2%3.3%-74.6%-13.7%21.0%20.0%-80%-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022%2009 1210 35 60%61%2015 2015 62%2015 2 1 94 138 80 31 2022 FAX2 2 2000 82.1%86.3%99.6%75.8%63.2%65.5%68.9%112.3%31.2%30.8%25.8%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022%1.30 1.36 1.90 4.40 10.06 8.87 5.23 1.82 29.59 16.09 13.730%20%40%60%80%100%120%140%160%180%200%051015202530352012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022%0.771.372.212.462.371.912.743.482.140.590.020%1%2%3%4%5%6%7%8%9%0.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.54.02012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022%2009 1210 36 3 15 329 477 832 32 273 63 2019 2020 2021 2022 67 69 82 74 56 47 50 49 174.95 183.12 212.66 212.61 96 93 94 94 183 129 130 138 27 20 31 31 23 14 10 15 2009 1210 37 64 65 mm mm mm(OT)6058 2438 2591(HQ)6058 2438 2896(RH)12192 2438 2896(TK)6058 2438 2591(FR)6058 2438 2591 2022 12 31 74 212.6 49 163.1 76.7%Alphaliner 2023 7 21 2009 1210 38 66%67%2022 243.9 TEU 6.9%1358.2 TEU 3.6%68 TEU%69 TEU%2015 2015 2019 2022 TEU 3762/TEU 26.4%2018 2021 TEU 2107/TEU 4.1%2018 17.9%2022 TEU 37.3 58.5 87.1 92.2 103.3 136.2 203.2 175.0 183.1 212.7 212.6-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%0501001502002502012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 YOY39 40 4257 564750 49293759511122322577.3%74.5%65.8%77.8%76.7%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%0204060801001202015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 56.486.8119.7133.9172.1245.1346.1260.9231.6261.9243.9-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%0501001502002503003504002012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 TEU YOY203.3 343.5 537.3 650.7 786.5 1147.1 1650.6 1341.6 1182.5 1311.2 1,358.2-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%0200400600800100012001400160018002012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 TEU YOY 2009 1210 39 70 TEU/TEU=/20212022 2022 76.7%56.3%2023 7 2.78 TEU 22.9%0.49 TEU 5.6%71 2022 72 2023 7 TEU Alphaliner Alphaliner 2022 142 15.6%91.8 17.7%464 462 512 521 503 443 339-414-109 869 1150 2828 2529 2359 2307 2207 2759 2906 1936 2088 2975 37622364 2066 1847 1785 1705 2315 2567 2350 2197 2107 2612-600-10040090014001900240029003400390044002012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 TEU TEU TEU 21326116314776.7%56.3%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%050100150200250300安通控股 中谷物流 8.6612.140.492.785.6%22.9%0%5%10%15%20%25%02468101214安通控股 中谷物流 2009 1210 40 2022 27.4 14.0%23.4 32.6%73 74 2022 30.6%22.6%8 22%20212022 22.7%25.5%75%76%2020 2021 2022 1.6 67.6100.650.548.477.991.856.080.899.0104.2122.9142.10204060801001201401602017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 5.5 4.9-43.712.917.723.43.85.58.610.224.127.4-50-40-30-20-100102030402017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 16.1%11.7%-21.4%-5.2%29.2%30.6%13.9%9.6%12.2%14.0%21.3%22.6%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 8.2%4.9%-86.6%26.7%22.7%25.5%6.7%6.8%8.7%9.8%19.6%19.3%-100%-80%-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2009 1210 41 77%78%79%2021 87.1%2022 1.35 2.16 80 81 0.23%0.46%0.48%0.19%0.42%0.28%0.23%0.21%0.22%0.21%0.22%0.20%0.0%0.1%0.2%0.3%0.4%0.5%0.6%2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2.57%2.16%5.13%6.12%6.43%3.16%6.49%1.44%1.28%1.36%1.53%1.51%0%1%2%3%4%5%6%7%2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2.82%2.72%6.89%4.43%0.76%0.03%0.00%1.43%1.74%2.02%1.71%0.32%0%1%2%3%4%5%6%7%8%2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 30.0 33.8-9.7 60.4 77.8 95.8 17.3 22.1 29.7 52.0 97.3 93.4-200204060801001202017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2.89 3.22-8.11 1.45 1.44 1.35 2.74 3.02 2.80 2.22 1.78 2.16-10.0-8.0-6.0-4.0-2.00.02.04.02017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2009 1210 42 2022 2 20192020 20192020 82 83 84 85 0.88 1.03 0.54 0.58 0.78 0.76 1.52 1.42 1.32 1.05 0.85 0.76 0.00.20.40.60.81.01.21.41.62017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2.52 2.86 4.70 4.70 4.06 5.422.61 2.98 3.06 3.40 3.24 3.360.01.02.03.04.05.06.02017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 34.08 43.53 82.48 39.79 27.00 26.3215.90 16.52 15.50 15.60 14.15 13.9001020304050607080902017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 51.82 52.30 103.50 90.22 46.54 54.65 67.10 63.21 65.66 68.60 70.84 82.20 0204060801001202017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2009 1210 43 86 Wind 1 18 4600TEU 2023 5 2026 2-3 2026 12 4250TEU 11 2 1 2023 4600TEU 2 财务指标 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022营业收入(亿元)56.0 80.8 99.0 104.2 122.9 142.1 67.6 100.6 50.5 48.4 77.9 91.8归母净利润(亿元)3.8 5.5 8.6 10.2 24.127.45.5 4.9-43.7 12.9 17.723.4毛利 率(%)13.9%9.6%12.2%14.0%21.3%22.6%16.1%11.7%-21.4%-5.2%29.2%30.6%净利 率(%)6.7%6.8%8.7%9.8%19.6%19.3%8.2%4.9%-86.6%26.7%22.7%25.5%销售 费用 率(%)0.23%0.21%0.22%0.21%0.22%0.20%0.23%0.46%0.48%0.19%0.42%0.28%管理 费用 率(%)6.49%1.44%1.28%1.36%1.53%1.51%2.57%2.16%5.13%6.12%6.43%3.16%财务 费用 率(%)0.00%1.43%1.74%2.02%1.71%0.32%2.82%2.72%6.89%4.43%0.76%0.03%净资产(亿元)17.3 22.1 29.7 52.0 97.3 93.4 30.0 33.8-9.7 60.4 77.8 95.8权益乘数 2.7 3.0 2.8 2.2 1.8 2.2 2.9 3.2-8.1 1.5 1.4 1.4资产周转率 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.1 0.9 0.8 0.9 1.0 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.8存货周转天数 2.6 3.0 3.1 3.4 3.2 3.4 2.5 2.9 4.7 4.7 4.1 5.4应收账款周转天数 15.9 16.5 15.5 15.6 14.2 13.9 34.1 43.5 82.5 39.8 27.0 26.3应付账款周转天数 67.1 63.2 65.7 68.6 70.8 82.2 51.8 52.3 103.5 90.2 46.5 54.7单箱 收入(元/T E U)1882 2088 2088 2052-2759 2906 1936 2088 2975 3762单箱 成本(元/T E U)1620 1889 1834 1765-2315 2567 2350 2197 2107 2612中谷物流 安通控股 2009 1210 44 2023 PDCI 1233.6 22 24.9%2021 7.6%9-10 35 40 PPI 3 5-6 9-10 87 PDCI Wind 6008001000120014001600180020001月 2月 3月 4月 5 月 6月 7月 8 月 9 月 10月 11月 12 月2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 2009 1210 45 2016 2021 21 2020 21 2019 2018 2017 2020 2020 21 2021 玥 2021 2021 2023 2009 1210 46 010-63214682 0