深度报告-20230223-开源证券-绿能慧充-600212.SH-公司首次覆盖报告_剥离亏损业务轻装上阵_直流充电桩黑马迎风起_29页_1mb (2).pdf
/1/29 600212.SH 2023 02 23 2023/2/17()8.98()10.64/4.02()45.95()45.95()5.12()5.12 3(%)224.64 S0790522080001 2022 2022-2024-0.85 1.00 3.13 EPS-0.17 0.20 0.61/PE-54.3 45.8 14.7 2024 PE 2023-2024 PS 4.3 1.8+=2023 2021-2025 48%71%87%10%30%BP 2020A 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E()277 243 432 1,078 2,625 YOY(%)6.0-12.3 77.9 149.6 143.5()20-20-85 100 313 YOY(%)105.6-202.7-321.4 218.6 211.7(%)18.3 14.3 25.3 30.2 31.0(%)7.1-8.3-19.6 9.3 11.9 ROE(%)7.7-8.6-57.0 40.3 55.7 EPS(/)0.04-0.04-0.17 0.20 0.61 P/E()235.2-228.9-54.3 45.8 14.7 P/B()18.2 19.7 30.9 18.5 8.2-40%0%40%80%120%160%2022-02 2022-06 2022-10 300 2/29 1.4 1.1.4 1.2.4 1.3.5 1.4.6 1.5.8 1.6.8 1.7.9 2.11 2.1.11 2.2.13 2.3.14 2.4.15 2.4.1.15 2.4.2.15 2.5.16 3.20 3.1.20 3.2.21 3.3.23 3.4“”.23 3.5.24 4.25 4.1.25 4.2.26 5.26.27 1.4 2 2022.5 3 2.5.5 4.5 5 70%.6 6 2021 113%.6 7 2022.6 8.7 9.7 10 2022.7 11.9 12 2015-2017.11 3/29 13 2019.11 14 2018.12 15 2022 12.13 16 720KW 1 24.14 17.15 18.16 19.20 20.20 21.20 22 2022 10.21 23.22 24 60KW.23 25 60kW TV.23 26.23 27.23 1 2021.7 2.8 3.8 4.9 5.12 6.14 7.16 8 2021-2025 CAGR 48%.16 9 2021-2025 CAGR 71%.18 10 2021-2025 CAGR 87%.18 11.21 12 1.06.22 13.24 14.25 15 2024 PE.26 4/29 1 1.1 1999 2022 1 8300 100%2022 4 7950 2012 2017 2018 2019 2020 2022 1 1.2 2019 11 2019 12.83%2022 14.8%60%5/29 2 2022 Wind 1.3 2017-2021 2.5 2018/2019/2021 1.72/3.52/0.2 3 2.5 4 Wind Wind 2022 2019-2021 2 70%2022 2022 1.71 3.4%2.52 2.452.61 2.77 2.43-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%2.22.32.42.52.62.72.82017 2018 2019 2020 2021 YOY-4.0-3.0-2.0-1.00.01.02017 2018 2019 2020 2021 6/29 5 70%Wind 1.4 1 2021 2019/2020/2021 0.47/0.64/1.36 2019-2021 CAGR 70%2020/2021-0.02/0.06 2 EPC 2020 2021-0.09-0.40 0.34 2022 EPC 6 2021 113%7 2022 3 2020 2020 2021 2850 2579 2021 19.53%39.86%2022 2022 2.061.792.062.04 1.80.460.460.530.72 0.630%20%40%60%80%100%2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 0.470.641.360%20%40%60%80%100%120%0.000.501.001.502019 2020 2021 YOY-0.6-0.4-0.200.20.42020 2021 2022Q1-Q3 7/29 1 2021 1465.88 9599.78 2850 2579 0.51 3.72 19.53%39.86%2021 26.83%36.12%13.55%2022 Q1-Q3 9.69%23.67%0.91%4.21%8 9 Wind Wind 10 2022 Wind 0%10%20%30%40%50%2019 2020 2021 2022H1 0.641.360.000.501.001.502.002.503.002019 2020 2021 9.69%23.67%0.91%4.21%-10.00%0.00%10.00%20.00%30.00%40.00%50.00%8/29 1.5 2 2017 20 2015 2019 2019 10 10 25 10 10 2020 4 863 1.6 BP CPO 3 BP 9/29 1.7 7KW 720KW 1 7kW 30kW 40kW 60kW 80kW 2 120kW 360kW 3 180kW 720kW 4 320kW 360kW HPC 60/120KW CCS2 CHAdeMO 11 4 7kW 7kW IP55 30/40kW 60/80kW 120/180kW 300-1000V 360kW 300-1000V OTA 10/29 360kW 300-1000V HPC OTA 720kW 60/120kW CCS2 CHAdeMO)APP 30kW/64kWh 107kW/215kWh 11/29 2 2.1 2015 2019 1 2015 2012 2015 2015-2018 12 2015-2017 2 2019 2018 12 2019 2020 13 2019-4.0-3.0-2.0-1.00.02015 2016 2017050001000015000200002014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 12/29 5 2020 0.6/kWh 2022 200 300 50 5 2022/9/29 600 300 2022 30%2022 A 50%:A 2022/1/26 150/300/:0.14/1000/;1500/:2022/4/2 0.2/14 2018 13/29 2022 CR3 53.7%15 2022 12 2.2 OBC 7KW 30 40 60 120KW 1 2 OBC BOM OBC 2000 3,20.19%,19.07%,14.43%,10.93%,5.21%,3.07%,27.10%14/29 6 20KW IP65 10%100%5 100KWH 4 75KWH 7KW 2.0 10%100%14 100KWH 11.5 75KWH 2.3 16 720KW 1 24 60KW 120KW 15/29 2.4 2.4.1 2022 1310 521 2.51:1 35%65%/3:1 2022 12 17 Wind 2025 2 1 2.4.2 12 1 2022 18 1 2021 EAFO 27 23.7%19.1%17.0%60%2022 7.3:1 0%20%40%60%80%100%120%140%02004006008001000120014002016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 有序发展 期 16/29 18 Wind EAFO ACEA 2021 11 75 2030 50 7 2022/06/09 AFCs 50 1 DCFC 4 4 DCFC 150kW 7 24 2022/09/14 9 35 8.5 2022/09/27 50 7.5 12.07 mckinsey 2.5 2023 432 2021-2025 CAGR 48%1 2023-2025 30%2 2023-2025 7.0/6.9/6.8 3.5/3.0/2.5 3 2023-2025 3%/4%/5%2023-2025 10%/15%/20%8 2021-2025 CAGR 48%2021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E 352 687 893 1,161 1,510 0.0%5.0%10.0%15.0%20.0%25.0%17/29 2021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E YOY 157.6%95.2%30.0%30.0%30.0%784 1,310 1,941 2,714 3,681 YOY 59.3%67.1%48.2%39.8%35.6%6.84 7.29 7.00 6.90 6.80 1,146,956 1,797,488 2,773,371 3,933,994 5,413,740 YOY 42.0%56.7%54.3%41.8%37.6%339,373 650,532 975,883 1,160,623 1,479,746 YOY 16.5%91.7%50.0%18.9%27.5%100.0%98.0%97.0%96.0%95.0%339,373 637,521 946,607 1,114,198 1,405,759 4.00 3.90 3.80 3.70 3.60 135.75 248.63 359.71 412.25 506.07 0.0%2.0%3.0%4.0%5.0%0 13,011 29,277 46,425 73,987 13.00 13.00 13.00 13.00 0.00 16.91 38.06 60.35 96.18 135.75 265.55 397.77 472.61 602.26 5.33 3.84 3.50 3.00 2.50 1,470,044 3,412,143 5,546,743 9,048,187 14,725,373 YOY 68.2%132.1%62.6%63.1%62.7%596,044 1,942,099 2,134,600 3,501,444 5,677,186 YOY 248.6%225.8%9.9%64.0%62.1%100.0%95.0%90.0%85.0%80.0%596,044 1,844,994 1,921,140 2,976,227 4,541,749 0.15 0.15 0.14 0.13 0.12 8.94 27.67 26.90 38.69 54.50 0.0%5.0%10.0%15.0%20.0%0 97,105 213,460 525,217 1,135,437 0.40 0.38 0.36 0.34 0.32 0.00 3.69 7.68 17.86 36.33 8.94 31.36 34.58 56.55 90.83 2,617,000 5,209,631 8,320,114 12,982,181 20,139,113 YOY 55.6%99.1%59.7%56.0%55.1%935,417 2,592,631 3,110,483 4,662,067 7,156,932 YOY 102.4%177.2%20.0%49.9%53.5%145 297 432 529 693 YOY 21.5%105.2%45.6%22.4%31.0%Wind 2023 56 2021-2025 CAGR 71%1 2023-2025 30%/30%/20%18/29 2 2023-2025 11/10/9 3 2023-2025 14%/16%/18%9 2021-2025 CAGR 71%2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 226 245 319 414 497 YOY 65.7%8.4%30.0%30.0%20.0%405 585 813 1,104 1,441 YOY 82.7%44.5%39.0%35.8%30.5%12.49 12.37 11.00 10.00 9.00 32 47 74 110 160 YOY 75.7%45.8%56.4%49.4%45.0%91.0%88.0%86.0%84.0%82.0%29 42 64 93 131 13 12 22 29 39 0.40 0.40 0.40 0.38 0.36 5.29 4.84 8.78 11.10 13.87 9.0%12.0%14.0%16.0%18.0%3 6 10 18 29 1 3 5 7 11 11.00 11.00 10.00 10.00 9.00 7.94 30.30 46.74 73.22 100.37 13 35 56 84 114 YOY 165.5%58.0%51.9%35.5%ACEA EAFO 2023 31 2021-2025 CAGR 87%1 2023-2025 70%/50%/30%2 2023-2025 14/13/12 3 2023-2025 21%/23%/25%10 2021-2025 CAGR 87%2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 63.0 100.0 170.0 255.0 331.5 YOY 114.3%58.7%70.0%50.0%30.0%202.0 261.6 379.3 558.4 778.2 YOY 16.1%29.5%45.0%47.2%39.4%15.72 15.00 14.00 13.00 12.00 12.8 17.4 27.1 43.0 64.9 YOY 20.3%35.7%55.3%58.6%51.0%2.2 4.6 9.7 15.9 21.9 YOY-0.3%112.0%110.2%64.4%38.0%19/29 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 82.7%81.0%79.0%77.0%75.0%1.8 3.7 7.6 12.2 16.4 0.40 0.40 0.40 0.38 0.36 0.72 1.49 3.05 4.64 5.91 17.3%19.0%21.0%23.0%25.0%0.4 0.9 2.0 3.6 5.5 15.00 15.00 14.00 14.00 13.00 5.62 13.09 28.38 51.08 71.17 6.3 14.6 31.4 55.7 77.1 YOY 130.1%115.6%77.3%38.3%IEA AFDC 20/29 3 3.1 10%线路 占用 严重。环形功 率分配 虽能降 低成 本，但 每个终 端的功 率调 取路径 很少，一旦有 线路 损坏就 会大幅 降低分配能 力。19 30%20 21 21/29 1-40-50 IP65 2“”3 OTA 3.2 13 8 2022 10 11 1 2 100%2 100%3 100%4 V2G V2G 5 22 2022 10 2022 8 1.06 2021 2023 0.50 47%10 2 4-12 1,528 675 619 1,653 1,005 2,607 1,639 1,766 2,307 1,723 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000/22/29 12 1.06/1 240kW 4,200.0 2021-11 2022-11 2 7kW 469.5 2021-10 2022-06 3 40kW/60kW/120kW/360kW 347.2 2021-11 2022-10 4 720kW 14 570.0 2021-11 2022-12 5 120kW 675.0 2021-12 2022-11 6 120kW/60kW/40kW/30k W/360kW 1,223.5 2021-12 2022-11 7 40kW/120kW/180kW/240kW/360kW 676.4 2021-12 2022-11 8 400kW/160kW 303.9 2021-11 2022-10 9 360kW 572.0 2022-04 2022-12 10 40kW/120kW/180kW/240kW/360kW 1,339.9 2022-04 2023-03 11 720kW 12 265.0 2022-06 2023-05 10642.4 BP 2022 16.14%110 2019 4 23 23/29 100 3.3 CE CE UL 60kW 2022 7 120kW CCS2 CHAdeMO)24 60KW 25 60kW TV 3.4 V2G 26 27 24/29 3.5 1.535 4.5 2022 9 12 2024 1 35%13 1 50,700,000.00 14,956.50 2 50,800,000.00 14,986.00 3 52,000,000.00 15,340.00 153,500,000.00 45,282.50 25/29 4 4.1 2022 65 92%194 226%1.06 2022 3.40 2023-2024 7.46 15.02 31.4%33.3%4-12 2023-2024 540%250%3.2 11.2 2023-2024 28%28%2021 2023-2024 0.13 0.04 15%15%2022 14 2019 2020 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 340 746 1502 YOY 119%101%245 512 1002 95 234 500 28%31.4%33.3%50 320 1120 YOY 540%250%36 230 806 14 90 314 28%28%28%53.47 72.18 63.03 31.51 12.61 3.78 YOY 16%35%-13%-50%-60%-70%44.95 52.95 49.96 26.79 10.71 3.21 8.51 19.23 13.07 4.73 1.89 0.57 15.9%26.6%20.7%15%15%15%206.31 204.19 179.57 10.44 YOY 15%-1%-12%-94%200.70 172.61 158.00 15.29 5.61 31.58 21.57-4.86 2.7%15.5%12%-46.5%1.39 0.43 YOY-69%26/29 2019 2020 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 0.43 0.45 0.96-0.01 69.2%-3.2%Wind 4.2 2022-2024 4.32 10.78 26.25-0.85 1.00 3.13 EPS-0.17 0.20 0.61/PE-54.3 45.8 14.7 2024 PE 2022-2024 PS 10.6 4.3 1.8 2023 2024 15 2024 PE EPS PE PS 2022E 2023E 2024E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2022E 2023E 2024E 300693.SZ 64.61 0.90 1.42 1.99 71.7 45.6 32.4 132.63 14.75 23.23 33.65 9.0 5.7 3.9 002518.SZ 50.08 1.10 1.75 2.43 45.4 28.6 20.7 291.69 42.62 71.81 101.87 6.8 4.1 2.9 002837.SZ 31.75 0.53 0.77 1.03 59.5 41.2 30.7 137.98 26.65 36.05 47.71 5.2 3.8 2.9 58.8 38.5 27.9 7.0 4.5 3.2 600212.SH 8.98-0.17 0.20 0.61-54.3 45.8 14.7 45.95 4.32 10.78 26.25 10.6 4.3 1.8 Wind Wind 2023 2 17 5 27/29()2020A 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E()2020A 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E 137 137 183 413 938 277 243 432 1078 2625 52 27 0 0 183 226 208 323 753 1811 26 81 43 92 127 4 4 6 16 39 21 26 61 155 282 0 0 26 52 118 1 1 8 16 31 27 45 35 81 184 4 2 70 145 307 0 0 15 38 79 33 0 3 4 6-0-0 8 21 26 167 177 182 194 221 0-2-93 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 121 128 82 87 93 0 0 0 0 0 25 23 30 38 50 1-0 0 0 0 21 25 70 70 79 0 0 0 0 0 303 314 365 607 1159 20-20-100 118 368 43 42 164 268 408 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 75 81 0 1 0 0 0 0 18 18 36 91 212 20-20-100 118 368 25 24 53 96 197 0 0-15 18 55 8 39 52 90 189 20-20-85 100 313 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 8 39 52 90 189 20-20-85 100 313 51 81 216 358 597 EBITDA 31-8-80 142 380 0 0 0 0 0 EPS()0.04-0.04-0.17 0.20 0.61 512 512 512 512 512 468 468 468 468 468 2020A 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E-732-752-836-736-424 252 233 148 249 561(%)6.0-12.3 77.9 149.6 143.5 303 314 365 607 1159(%)105.7-200.3-399.3 218.6 211.7(%)105.6-202.7-321.4 218.6 211.7(%)18.3 14.3 25.3 30.2 31.0(%)7.1-8.3-19.6 9.3 11.9()2020A 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E ROE(%)7.7-8.6-57.0 40.3 55.7 20-28-84 8 231 ROIC(%)7.0-8.4-34.6 29.1 50.3 20-20-85 100 313 13 13 18 19 12(%)16.8 25.7 59.3 59.0 51.5-0-0 8 21 26(%)-19.6-4.3 61.5 43.9-22.0-1 0 0 0 0 3.2 3.3 1.1 1.5 2.3-12-29-0-132-120 3.1 3.2 0.6 0.9 1.5 2 9-25 0 0-25 4-22-30-37 1.0 0.8 1.3 2.2 3.0 18 8 22-3-37 18.1 4.6 7.0 16.0 24.0-18 13 0 0 0 12.4 11.7 12.1 11.9 12.0 11-0-1-33-74 0-1 19 1 71()0.04-0.04-0.17 0.20 0.61 0 0 75 6-81()0.04-0.06-0.16 0.02 0.45 0 0 0 0 0()0.49 0.46 0.29 0.49 1.10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 P/E 235.2-228.9-54.3 45.8 14.7 0-1-57-5 152 P/B 18.2 19.7 30.9 18.5 8.2-5-25-87-21 264 EV/EBITDA 147.9-553.2-58.9 33.2 11.8 28/29 2017 7 1 R3 C3 C4 C5 C3 C4 C5 Buy 20%outperform 5%20%Neutral 5%5%underperform 5%overweight Neutral underperform 612 A 300 500 29/29 1788 1 10 200120 2030 1 45 518000 18 C2 9 100044 1 B 5 710065
