20230521-华创证券-贵州茅台-600519.SH-跟踪分析报告_系统化能力升级_稳健进取更值得溢价_9页_1mb.pdf
2009 1210 2023 05 21 600519 2600 1699.50 5 19 i 21 1 1935 2 1363 10 162 i 3 C 55.1 50 40%/30%/30%6%22 1524 2.5%6%8 GP i 230 5 19 i 4000 230 22 65.7%9.6pcts C i S0360520070001 S0360521050001 S0360522090005 021-20572598 S0360518040001()125,619.78()125,619.78()21,349.08()21,349.08(%)12.36()173.76 12/2,045.00/1,350.00(12)600519 2023 2023-04-26 600519 2023 Q1 2023-04-17 600519 2022 2023-03-31-23%-10%3%16%22/05 22/08 22/10 22/12 23/03 23/052022-05-232023-05-19 300 600519 2009 1210 2 23-25 EPS 58.91/69.67/81.22 24 PE 24 2600 ReportFinancialIndex 2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E()127,554 148,048 173,846 201,028(%)16.5%16.1%17.4%15.6%()62,716 74,004 87,518 102,032(%)19.6%18.0%18.3%16.6%()49.93 58.91 69.67 81.22()34 29 24 21()10.8 8.9 7.4 6.2 2023 5 19 55.1 50 90.74%1000 40%/30%/30%20 5 5 1 6 5 5/4 6%80%20%Co-GP 1 100%1,000 0.18%()51%()49%1,000 0.18%600519 2009 1210 3-500,000 90.74%100%48,300 8.77%(99.9993%0.0007%700 0.13%100%-551,000 100%2 100%50,000 9.07%()51%()49%1,000 0.18%-500,000 90.74%-551,000 100%/+/3/0.45%0.45%/0.45%0.45%600519 2009 1210 4 4 2021/11/30 A A 2021/8/15 D+E 2022-11 2021/6/22-2020/6/11 B 2020-12 2020/5/12 IPO 2022-09 2019/4/30 IPO 2022-03 2019/2/27 2019/1/1 IPO 2019-07 2018/11/26 IPO 2021-02 2018/2/14 IPO 2021-05 2017/11/9 2017/9/28 IPO 2019-12 2017/5/11 B AI 2021-05 5 2022 2023 6 600519 2009 1210 5 7 i 8 i 9 i 10 i i i 11 PE Band 12 PB Band Wind Wind 0500100015002000250030003500收盘价 56.7X 47.7X38.7X 29.7X 20.7X0500100015002000250030003500收盘价 17.6X 14.8X12.0X 9.2X 6.4X 600519 2009 1210 6 Table_ValuationModels2 2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E 2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E 58,274 83,575 134,471 198,595 127,554 148,048 173,846 201,028 105 105 105 105 10,199 10,730 11,250 11,606 21 2 4 6 18,496 21,378 25,241 29,237 897 897 897 897 3,298 3,887 4,574 5,298 38,824 38,429 40,937 42,665 9,012 9,501 11,248 12,951 0 0 0 0 135 157 185 214 118,490 137,348 137,373 137,422-1,392-1,433-1,434-1,431 216,611 260,356 313,787 379,690-15-15-15-15 5 5 5 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 19,743 21,769 26,554 31,906 64 41 54 53 2,208 5,125 6,058 2,473 25 40 40 40 7,083 7,506 7,786 8,138 87,880 103,895 122,861 143,232 8,715 8,683 8,661 8,643 70 71 71 71 37,754 43,088 49,064 51,165 249 100 100 100 254,365 303,444 362,851 430,855 87,701 103,866 122,832 143,203 0 0 0 0 22,326 25,967 30,708 35,801 0 0 0 0 65,375 77,899 92,124 107,402 2,408 2,200 2,319 2,520 2,659 3,895 4,606 5,370 0 0 0 0 62,716 74,004 87,518 102,032 15,472 17,948 21,120 24,463 NOPLAT 64,338 76,825 91,049 106,329 4,544 4,544 4,544 4,544 EPS()49.93 58.91 69.67 81.22 109 109 109 109 26,533 28,014 30,509 33,056 49,066 52,815 58,601 64,692 2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 16.5%16.1%17.4%15.6%334 300 280 300 EBIT 17.3%18.7%18.5%16.8%334 300 280 300 19.6%18.0%18.3%16.6%49,400 53,115 58,881 64,992 197,507 238,976 288,011 344,534 91.9%92.6%93.4%94.2%7,458 11,353 15,959 21,329 52.7%54.1%54.4%54.7%204,965 250,329 303,970 365,863 ROE 31.8%31.0%30.4%29.6%254,365 303,444 362,851 430,855 ROIC 44.4%42.7%41.3%39.9%19.4%17.5%16.2%15.1%2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E 0.2%0.2%0.1%0.1%36,699 62,225 75,127 91,866 4.4 4.9 5.4 5.9 65,594 78,735 93,153 108,828 3.6 4.2 4.7 5.2-5,430 395-2,508-1,728-635 19-2-3 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 818-208 119 201 0 0 0 0-23,649-16,716-15,635-15,433 79 78 73 76-5,537-7,605-8,439-4,958 1,288 1,312 1,285 1,312-4,643-7,634-8,462-4,977()0 0 0 0 49.93 58.91 69.67 81.22-894 29 23 19 29.21 49.53 59.81 73.13-57,425-29,319-15,792-22,784 157.23 190.24 229.27 274.27 5 0 0 0-57,370-40,520-47,912-55,858 P/E 34 29 24 21 0 0 0 0 P/B 11 9 7 6-60 11,201 32,120 33,074 EV/EBITDA 24 20 17 15 600519 2009 1210 7 6 2020 2021-2022 4 2019 2020 2021 4 2020 2020 2022 2022 3 2020 14 2013 2022 600519 2009 1210 8 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-66500808 010-66500821 010-63214682 0755-82828570 0755-83715428 0755-82756804 0755-82871425 0755-83024576 0755-82871425 021-20572536 021-20572555 021-20572257-2552 021-20572506 021-20572585 021-20572560 021-20572509 021-20572548 021-20572573 0755-82756805 021-20572559 021-20572559 0755-82756805 021-20572559 玙 021-25072549 600519 2009 1210 9(300)6 20%6 10%20%6-10%10%6 10%20%3-6 5%3-6-5%5%3-6 5%600519 3.97%26 C 3A 1061 A 19 33 12 100033 518034 200120 010-66500801 0755-82027731 021-20572500 010-66500900 0755-82828562 021-20572522
