20230915_国海证券_工商业储能深度行业报告：海内外多重利好发展有望提速_52页.pdf
()()()S0350521120006 S0350522010002 S 2023 09 15 2 4 2023 2*2023-08-13 3 2023 1*2023-05-17*2022-12-21*2022-05-18 300 2023/9/14 1M 3M 12M-8.22%-5.53%-19.84%300-3.88%-3.40%-9.19%ZXBYyRtOsRoPsMsRrMsNrQbR8Q8OoMrRmOpMiNoOxOfQrQyQaQmNtPxNmMxPvPpPzR3 2023/9/14 EPS PE 2022 2023E 2024E 2022 2023E 2024E300982.SZ 33.19 1.83 2.83 3.91 32.91 11.73 8.49 300693.SZ 29.65 1.09 1.20 1.72 49.84 24.71 17.24 300118.SZ 19.37 1.06 1.70 2.30 23.43 11.39 8.42 002335.SZ 30.87 0.54 1.71 2.14 92.72 18.05 14.43 003035.SZ 5.96 0.15 0.22 0.30 38.81 27.09 19.87 300510.SZ 6.58 0.06 0.23 0.33 91.92 28.61 19.94 301046.SZ 26.23 0.17 0.98 1.37 198.53 26.84 19.12 300286.SZ 27.35 0.82 1.12 1.59 37.43 24.45 17.24 603105.SH 13.67 0.38 0.52 0.68 38.45 26.29 20.11 600452.SH 13.18 0.67 0.68 0.78 22.52 19.51 16.91 Wind 4 4+1 2023 5 19 2 2 2 2 2 1/+1/2/10 2023 8 24 0.7/kWh 5 2023 9 14 2023 51.00/18.85/63%2023 7 2 1 1.47/Wh 7 1.123/Wh 23.6%1MWh 6000 300 1.58/Wh 90%92%2 2 1.5 IRR 22%4.5 LCOS 0.49/kWh 1 1 IRR 8.86%13 LCOS 0.72/kWh 2023-2025 5.9%4.5%4.5%0.05%0.11%0.21%1 300 2 2023-2025 8GWh/13GWh/21GWh 300.0%62.5%/61.5%2022-2025 3 CAGR 119%2022-2025 1.4/Wh 1.3/Wh 1.2/Wh 1.2/Wh 2025 252 2022-2025 3 CAGR 108%2022 84%/4%/12%35%/43%/47%6 1 IRA 2 ITC 70%3 WoodMackenzie 2023 43%2022 48%46%6%1 2 3 781.1 60%-70%+2012 60 120 360 91.2+1 2 90%:10%85%:15%10+3+4+1.2 111.3=+VPP 121.4 OLiPower 131.5 4 EPCO 4 EPCO 141.5 151.5 AI AI 1 2 3 4 AI BMS EMS 16 172.1 1 1 2 5 19 182.1/+2 2 2 10 2 2 PV-info 2023 6 1 2 2 2 2 4 2 2 1/+1/2/10 2023 7 19 11:3012:30 10 36 CNESA PV-info 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 7 1 2 6()9:0017:00 8 9:0017:00 8 9:0017:00 8 10:0015:00 5 10:0015:00 5 14:0016:00 4 12:0015:00 3 11:0013:00 2 11:0013:00 2 11:3012:30 1192.1 8 24 0.7/kWh 2023 8 24 0.7/kWh 6 5 1.5:1:0.5 1.6:1:0.4 2023 8 24 0.7/kWh 1.2218/kWh 1.2158/kWh 1.1758/kWh 8 109.07%36 CNESA 2023 8 00.20.40.60.811.21.4 0.7/kWh20 2.1 2023/6/5 1.5:1:0.5 1.6:1:0.42023/5/30 315 11:00-15:00 20%315 7 8 14:00 15:00 20:00 21:00 17:00 18:00 12 1 9:00 11:00 18:00 20:00 20%2023/5/17 7 8 16:00-24:00 0:00-9:00 9:00-16:00 9:00-12:00 17:00-22:00 23:00-8:00 2023/5/15 1.8:1:0.3 1.6:1:0.4 20%24 8 7 8 1 12 3 2023/5/13 2023 3 0.10/kWh 0.18/kWh 0.28/kWh 11:00 17:00 20:00 22:00 00:00 08:00 08:00 11:00 17:00 20:00 22:00 24:002023/4/28 10:00-12:00 15:00-21:00 7:00-10:00 12:00-15:00 21:00-23:00 23:00-7:00 7 8 15:00-17:00 1 12 19:00-21:00 2022/12/16 7 8 9 1 12 80%60%25%1 7 8 9 8:00-15:00 18:00-21:00 6:00-8:00 15:00-18:00 21:00-22:00 22:00-6:00 7 8 12:00-14:00 2 8:00-11:00 18:00-21:00 6:00-8:00 11:00-18:00 21:00-22:00 22:00-6:00 1 12 19:00-21:00 2022/12/6 1 0.55 0.30 1-10 0.50 0.27 0.05 0.30 8:00-22:00 22:00-8:00 2022/12/1 36 2022/11/29 2023+70%70%100%90%2-5 9-11 5 5 14 1 6-8 12 6 6 12 1095 2022/11/7 1 7 8 12 1.71:1:0.47 1 7 8 12 1 12 18 19 7 8 12 14 20 21 20%212.2 Wind 2023 9 14 2023 51.00/18.85/63%60%2023 7 2 1 1.47/Wh 7 1.123/Wh 23.6%2023 7 2 EPC 1.604/Wh 1 3.4%2022-2023 7 2/Wh 2020-2023 9/01020304050602020/01 2020/07 2021/01 2021/07 2022/01 2022/07 2023/01 2023/07 99.5%/11.11.21.31.41.51.61.72022/12 2023/01 2023/02 2023/03 2023/04 2023/05 2023/06 2023/07222.3 LCOS=+=+LCOS 232.3 2 2 IRR 22%1 1 IRR 9%玥 1MWh 6000 300 1.58/Wh 2%90%92%2 2 1.5 IRR 22%4.5 LCOS 0.49/kWh 2023 6/kWh)1.2481 1.0424 0.3333-0.812 IRR/-1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 55 54 53 52 50 49 48 47 46 45 100%98%96%94%92%90%88%86%84%82%80%(55 54 53 52 50 49 48 47 46 45/kWh 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 MWh 730 715 700 686 671 656 641 626 611 596/kWh 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 MWh 863 845 828 810 792 775 757 740 722 704 158 12 12 12 11 11 11 11 10 10 10 1(158 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5-6 9 9 9 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 43 42 41 40 39 38 38 37 36 35-158 43 42 41 40 39 38 38 37 36 35 IRR 21.89%-158-115-74-33 7 47 85 123 159 195 230-158 40 37 34 32 29 27 25 23 21 20-158-118-81-46-14 15 42 67 90 111 131 4.5 240 11.56 10.66 9.82 9.04 8.32 7.65 7.04 6.46 5.93 5.44 MWh 4,934 689 637 588 543 501 462 426 393 362 333 LCOS/kWh 0.49 IRR MW 0.5 MWh 1 300 100%/Wh 1.58 2%100%4.20%10 10 25%6.00%3.00%2.00%90%92%92%1.5 h 224 1MWh 6000 300 1.58/Wh 1%90%92%1 1 IRR 8.86%13 LCOS 0.72/kWh 2.3 2 2 IRR 22%1 1 IRR 9%2023 6/kWh)1.2481 1.0424 0.3333-0.812 IRR/-1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 21 21 21 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 18 18 100%99%99%98%97%97%96%95%94%94%93%92%92%91%90%90%89%88%87%87%86%(21 21 21 21 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 18 18/kWh 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 MWh 247 245 243 241 240 238 236 234 233 231 229 228 226 224 222 221 219 217 215 214/kWh 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 MWh 291 289 287 285 283 281 279 277 275 273 271 269 267 265 263 261 259 257 254 252 158 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 1(158 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 3 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5-6 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 19 19 19 19 19 18 18 18 18 18 14 14 14 14 14 14 13 13 13 13-158 19 19 19 19 19 18 18 18 18 18 14 14 14 14 14 14 13 13 13 13 IRR 8.86%-158-139-120-101-82-64-45-27-9 9 27 42 56 69 83 97 110 124 137 150 163-158 18 17 16 15 14 13 12 11 11 10 7 7 7 6 6 5 5 5 4 4-158-140-123-107-93-79-66-53-42-31-21-14-7-0 6 12 17 22 27 31 35 13 194 1.91 1.77 1.64 1.52 1.41 1.30 1.20 1.11 1.03 0.95 2.89 2.71 2.54 2.38 2.23 2.09 1.96 1.83 1.72 1.61 MWh 2,678 233 218 204 191 179 168 157 147 138 129 121 113 106 99 93 87 81 76 71 67 LCOS/kWh 0.72 IRR MW 0.5 MWh 1 300 100%/Wh 1.58 1%100%4.20%10 10 25%6.00%3.00%0.70%90%92%92%1 h 1 玥 252.4 2025 44GWh 3 CAGR 119%2025 44GWh 2023-2025 5.9%4.5%4.5%0.05%0.11%0.21%1 300 2 2023-2025 8GWh/13GWh/21GWh 300.0%/62.5%/61.5%2022-2025 3 CAGR 119%2022-2025 1.4/Wh 1.3/Wh 1.2/Wh 1.2/Wh 2025 252 2022-2025 3 CAGR 108%2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E 86372 91500 95618 99920 5.9%4.5%4.5%65%64%64%64%=56000 58560 61195 63949 4.6%4.5%4.5%0.01%0.05%0.11%0.21%=6 30 69 132 300 300 300 300 h 2 2 2 2=()GW 1.00 5.00 11.50 22.00=GWh 2.00 10.00 23.00 44.00 GW 1.00 4.00 6.50 10.50(GWh)2.00 8.00 13.00 21.00 300.0%62.5%61.5%2022-2025 CAGR 119%/Wh 1.40 1.30 1.20 1.20 28.00 104.00 156.00 252.002022-2025 CAGR 108%262.5 0-1 GGII 3-6 0cube Scopio Powercube B0OST SMART-ONE PowerStack/0SN-P120B274-U-R1M01 PowerPILLAR magic PowerOcean/PowerStar LUNA2000 PowerCube/Enerone CPSES LABEL,PowerCell BalancePower KAC50DP-BC100DM NREnergyLink Allin0ne eBlock PowerON WIT SINY-BANK CE Aqua Aero Tensorpack EnerHexon()iDPS100 6S+EDR PowerCombo/YLESS XCUBE SunGiga UPowerTM STORION/Powermax,Enerwow ALLINONE.BOOST ESS 1000-1500V FLEX CENTRIC Edge 27 283.1 EnergyTrend EIA Wood Mackenzie 2023 5 16.14/kWh 12.31/kWh 7.75/kWh 2022 84%/4%/12%+35%/43%/47%WoodMackenzie 2022 4.8GW/12.2 GW+34%/12%4GW+35%0.195GW+43%0.593GW+47%84%/4%/12%2023Q1 WoodMackenzie 2023Q1 554MW/1553MWh-21%/-33%69.1MW/203.3 MWh+119%/145%155.4MW/388.2MWh+7%/14%2020-2022 MW/MWh 2023Q1 MW/MWh 2020-2023 5/kWh+14%293.1 EnergyTrend WoodMackenzie InfoLink SMM IRA 2023 5 IRA IRA(ITC)(PTC)ITC PTC+ITC PTC ITC ITC PTC 1 100%2 40%2023-2025 45%/50%/55%10%IRA 2022 IRA 40%IRA IRA 2023 5 12 1MWAC()*1MWAC()*ITC PTC ITC PTC ITC PTC 30%2.75/kWh 6%0.5/kWh 6%0.5/kWh 24%2.25/kWh 10%0.3/kWh 10%0.3/kWh 2%0.3/kWh 10%0.3/kWh 10%0.3/kWh 2%0.3/kWh 5MWAC 10%10%10%20%20%20%*1MW 60*1MW 60 PTC 10%20%303.1 LGC WoodMackenzie Lazard 2023 6 11 CAISO 2.893.41/kWh Lazard 2023 4.818.5/kWh 2023 5 12.31/kWh 7.75/kWh ITC 70%MISO 100kW MISO 2022 6 MISO 2030 2023 6 11 CAISO/MWh 2023/MWh 27121722273237424752 1:00 AM 4:00 AM 7:00 AM 10:00 AM 1:00 PM 4:00 PM 7:00 PM 10:00 PMPGAE SCE SDGE VEA313.1 2023 1 WoodMackenzie WoodMackenzie 2023 43%2023 2022A-2027E GW GWh 323.2 2022 6%2022 48%46%6%EASE/Delat-EE 2022 3.98GWh 3.86GWh 0.5GWh 2018-2022 4 CAGR 77%71%42%2022 48%46%6%2018-2022 MWh EASE/Delta-EE 333.2 1 IEA Analog Devices 2010-2027E GW 343.2 2 1991 1993 7 23 EPEX SPOT EPEX SPOT 353.2 3 2029 2023 2030 6/2020 4600 2022 1 2026 2502 2027 2503 2029 2023 2030 6/2022 1 30 2 15KW 3 VAT 2020 4600 4750 3.76 2020 2000 2018 1.7 2000 2018 1 1 20%30%363.2 EASE 2023-2030 MW 2023-2030 MW 2023-2030 MW 2023-2030 MW 2023-2030 MW 37384.1 EPCOS 2022 Wind 2007 EPCOS 2023H1 30%2022 PCS EPC 2022 4300+100+30+2022 4 PCS EPC 2018-2023H1%2017-2020H1%2018-2023H1%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%05101520252018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023H1(%)0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023H1 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%2017 2018 2019 2020H1 394.2 2022 Wind 2022 70%2018-2023H1%2022%2018-2023H1%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%051015202530352018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023H1-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%01234562018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023H1%404.3 2022 Wind()2023H1 90.84%7.85%1.05%500KW/1MWh+282KWh 2018-2023H1%2018-2023H1%-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%012345672018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023H1%-100%-50%0%50%100%150%200%00.20.40.60.811.22018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023H1(%)414.4 PCS 2022 EESA Wind 2007 PCS 2023H1 11 19%35%8%35%PCS 2012 EESA 2022 PCS 5 7 30-1000KW CEC ENA 50250kW UL CPUC HECO 2022 PCS MWh 2018-2023H1%2018-2023H1%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%02468101214162018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023H1%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%140%160%180%0.000.501.001.502.002.502018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023H1(%)424.5+EESA Wind 1988 UPS 2007 2009 2023H1 34 38%47%14%+PCS 2022 6.3GW/5.4GWh EESA 2022 20 13 2022 PCS 30kW 2 2 400MWh 2022 9 260MWh 30MWh 100MWh 2020-2023H1%2018-2023H1%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%01020304050602020 2021 2022 2023H1 IDC%-100%-50%0%50%100%150%200%0.000.501.001.502.002.503.003.504.004.505.002018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023H1(%)43 Wind 2017 2020 2021 2023H1 4.39 PCS 2022 4GWh PACK PACK 2023H1%2018-2023H1%4.5-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%024681012142018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023H1(%),30.61%,17.71%,13.41%,11.93%,26.34%444.7 2021 2022 EESA Wind 2018 2018 2022 9 1500V 280Ah UL9540A 2022 GWh MW 2018-2023H1%2018-2023H1%-20%0%20%40%60%0501001502002503003502018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023H1-500%0%500%1000%1500%2000%2500%-20246810122018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023H1(%)454.8 2022 Wind-2023H1 5.38 89%EMS2.0 2022 EMS2.0 18 6-9 100 EMS3.0 EMS 2018-2023H1%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%0246810122018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023H1%464.9 2022 Wind 2008+EPC+2023H1 3.32 86%GW GW 100 1200+PCS 2018-2023H1%2018-2023H1%-80%-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%012345672018 年 2019 年 2020 年 2021 年 2022 年 2023H1%-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%0.000.501.001.502.002.502018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023H1(%)474.10 Wind 2022 1999 2011 2016 2023H1 17.17 EMC 2018-2023H1%2018-2023H1%-5%0%5%10%15%20%05101520253035402018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023H1%-50%-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%012345672018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023H1(%)4849 50,300 300 300 300 20%300 10%20%300-10%10%300 10%4 4 51 R3/国 海 28F 518041 0755-83706353 C1 200023 021-61981300 168 25F 100044 010-88576597
