2009 1210 2023 09 21 1970-1990 1990-2010 20 1 70S-80S 2 70S-80S 3 4 5 1 90 2 3 4 8 1 1970-1990 2 1970S-1980S 70%3 4 5 1+/2+/3/4/EPS PE PB 2023E 2024E 2025E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2023E 98.15 5.05 5.91 6.82 19.44 16.62 14.39 3.31 24.27 1.45 1.71 1.98 16.74 14.22 12.23 3.06 18.92 1.44 1.73 2.02 13.13 10.93 9.39 3.31 27.66 2.18 2.68 3.18 12.66 10.31 8.69 1.71 41.28 2.57 3.04 3.53 16.05 13.57 11.69 3.55 21.48 1.42 1.79 2.17 15.10 12.01 9.92 2.09 38.29 2.14 2.61 3.12 17.85 14.65 12.29 3.92 Wind 2023 9 20 S0360521050002%()51 0.01()3,256.76 0.36()2,474.61 0.36%1M 6M 12M 1.9%-8.6%0.7%3.5%-0.8%6.6%Beta Alpha 2023-07-14 2023-07-10 2023-06-30-18%-5%8%20%22/09 22/12 23/02 23/04 23/07 23/092022-09-212023-09-21 300 2009 1210 1 2 1970-1990 1990-2010 20&1+/2+/3/4/WUAZwPqNmPrQqOpMrMoRmNbRdN9PoMqQmOtQfQoOvMlOtRtNbRrQtOvPmMtQMYsRnP 2009 1210 3.6.6 1 70S-80S.6 2 70S-80S.7 3.8 4.10 5.11.12 1 90.12 2.12 3.13 4.14.15.17.17.18 1.18 2.18 3.20.22 1.23 2.24.25.27.28 2009 1210 4 1.6 2 1970S(%).6 3 1999 80%+.6 4.6 5 GDP.7 6 GDP.7 7 25-44 24%32%.7 8 1970S.7 9.8 10 1970-1990.8 11 1970-1990 5pcts.8 12 1970-1990.9 13 1970-1990.9 14.9 15 1970-1990.10 16 1970-1990.10 17.10 18.11 19 1990.11 20.11 21 2020.11 22 1990.12 23 1990-2010.12 24 1990S.12 25 1970-2000.12 26.13 27 1990-2010.13 28.13 29.13 30 1990-2000.14 31 1990-2000.14 32.15 33 1990.15 2009 1210 5 34.15 35.16 36 2022%.17 37 2022 4 70%.17 38.18 39 70%.18 40%.18 41.18 42 750/.19 43 2025.19 44.19 45 50%.20 46 1%-2%.20 47.20 48 2019.21 49 CAGR 2017-2022-1.49%.21 50.21 51 2022 26%.21 52.22 53.22 54.22 55 2020-2022 CAGR 1.15%.23 56.23 57().23 58.23 59 2018.24 60.24 61.25 62.25 63.26 64+.27 2009 1210 6 1 70S-80S 70S-80S 1970-1980S 65 1 1970-1973 2 1974-1975 3 1976-1979 4 1980-1983 5 1984-1989 1 2 1970S(%)Wind Wind 1970-1980S 1999 80%70-80 3 1999 80%+4 Wind Wind 6267727782城市化率:美国0%20%40%60%80%100%1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021美国新房 销售 美国成屋 销售01002003004005006007008001999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020美国成屋 销售（千套）家具耐用 品新订 单（千 万美元）2009 1210 7 2 70S-80S 1960S 1970-1990 8.9%GDP 3.4%5 GDP 6 GDP Wind Wind+1 1970-1990 25-44 24%32%2 6 GDP 3 1970S 7 25-44 24%32%8 1970S Wind Wind-4%-3%-2%-1%0%1%2%3%4%5%6%197019711972197319741975197619771978197919801981198219831984198519861987198819891990个人消费 支出 国内私人 投资总 额商品和服 务净出 口 政府消费 支出和 投资总 额58%59%60%61%62%63%64%65%012345197019711972197319741975197619771978197919801981198219831984198519861987198819891990个人可支 配收入（万亿 美元）个人消费 支出（万亿美 元）个人消费 支出/GDP（%）0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%1970 1975 1980 1985 19900-4 岁 5-13 岁 14-17岁18-24 岁 25-44岁 45-64岁25-44 岁 人口 占 比显 著提 升05001,0001,5002,0002,50019681969197019711972197319741975197619771978197919801981198219831984198519861987198819891990美国:消费 循环信 贷:季调(亿美 元)2009 1210 8 9 3 1970-1990 8.9%7.6%49%39%28%33%31%24%10 1970-1990 11 1970-1990 5pcts Wind Wind 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990个人消费 支出:商品 个人消费 支出:服务0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990耐用品 非耐用品 2009 1210 9 12 1970-1990 13 1970-1990 Wind Wind 14 Wind 1970-1980S 1970-1990S CAGR 3%1000-2000 SUV 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990其他耐用 品 娱乐商品 和车辆 机动车辆 及零部 件 家具和家 用设备-2%0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%16%0204060801001201401970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990家具和家 用设备 个人消 费支出（十亿 美 元）YOY（右轴）同比增速 家具和家用设备 机动车辆及零部件 娱乐商品和车辆 其他耐用品1971 6%25%7%7%1972 12%14%18%9%1973 13%10%12%17%1974 8%-11%5%13%1975 4%9%14%14%1976 11%29%13%15%1977 13%17%10%10%1978 11%12%11%11%1979 11%1%10%7%1980 4%-6%1%10%1981 5%10%7%7%1982 0%8%3%1%1983 11%23%14%12%1984 11%20%16%14%1985 7%16%9%9%1986 9%10%12%14%1987 6%0%11%11%1988 5%7%9%10%1989 5%3%4%6%1990 0%-1%2%7%2009 1210 10 15 1970-1990 16 1970-1990 1 1 Wind 4 1970-1980/1981-1990 CAGR 4.5%/4.7%CAGR 4.5%/1.3%1970-1990/CAGR 3.4%/4.0%20 17 Wind 2 1 2021 SEMA Market Report 8.6%00.511.521970 1975 1980 1985 1990美国机动 车保有 量(亿辆）020004000600080001000012000140001971-19751976-19801981-19851986-19901971-19801981-1990美国机动 车个人 消费支 出/机动 车销售 量（美元/辆）2009 1210 11 5 2 1 1970S-1990S 2 1990S-18 19 1990 statista Furniture Today Stationary sofas)Motion sofas Recliners 2020 1000-1999 60%20 21 2020 statista-6%7%-13%27%24%-12%3%44%-4%1%2%-4%0%24%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%020406080100120140200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021美国家庭 平均床 垫支出（美元）YOY10%18%16%56%丝涟 舒达 席梦思 其他品牌-14%-14%1%10%9%0%7%31%-10%20%-2%-5%6%38%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%050100150200250200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021美国家庭 平均沙 发支出（美元）YOY36%27%10%9%3%2%2%2%1%1%7%Ashley IKEA LAZBOYLane Crate&Barrel BassettArticle Furniture Room&Board Jordans FurnitureAmerican Leather Others 2009 1210 12 1 90 90 1960S 1990 80%22 1990 23 1990-2010 Wind Wind 24 1990S 25 1970-2000 Wind 2 20 90 20 GDP 4000600080001000012000140001600019751978198119841987199019931996199920022005200820112014201720202023日本:景气 动向指 数:领 先指数:住房新 开 工总面积（千平 方米）00.20.40.60.811.21.41.61.80204060801001201401601801988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 2021日本:新屋 开工:户数（万单元）日本:新屋 住宅开 工面积（亿平 米，右 轴）52%54%56%58%60%62%64%66%68%70%72%01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,0008,0009,00010,000日本:15岁 及以上 人口:15 到64 岁（万 人）日本:15-64 岁人 口占比505560657075808590951949 1955 1961 1967 1973 1979 1985 1991 1997 2003 2009 2015 2021日本：城 镇化率(%)2009 1210 13 26 27 1990-2010 Wind Wind 3 1990-2010 4%3.5%28 29 Wind Wind-4%-2%0%2%4%6%8%10%020,00040,00060,00080,000100,000120,000140,000160,0001980 1986 1992 1998 2004 2010 2016日本零售 额（十 亿日元）YoY-6%-4%-2%0%2%4%6%8%10%0501001502002503003504004501978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018年度家庭 消费支 出（万 日元）YOY0%20%40%60%80%100%1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010食品 居住支出 水电光热 费 家具-家事 用品服装和鞋 类 医疗保健 交通通讯 教育文娱 其他消费 支出 2009 1210 14 30 1990-2000 31 1990-2000 Wind Wind 4 1 1960-1975 1960-1975 GDP 35%2 1976-1989 GDP 3 1990-2010 1990S 20 GDP 4 2011-2010S 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000公共交通 私人交通 通信-10%-5%0%5%10%15%0.00.51.01.52.02.51990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000汽车维持 消费支 出（万 日元）汽车购置 消费支 出（万 日元）YOY（右轴）2009 1210 15 32 Wind 3 95 33 1990 34 Wind Wind 1970-1990 1990-2010 20 0204060801001201401601801990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017日本:CPI:家具及 家用器 具（2020=100）2009 1210 16 35 2009 1210 17 21 22 27%11.5 8 36 2022%37 2022 4 70%Wind Wind-60-40-2002040608010020072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023中国:商品 房销售 面积:住宅:累 计同比-8-6-4-2024681012142011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 202370大中城 市新房 住宅价 格指数 当月同 比 2009 1210 18 1 2022 3.69 5.0%1970S-1980S 38 39 70%Wind Wind 2 2009-2020 20%60%12-16 2017 40%41 Wind 10 7=/+9%0%2%4%6%8%10%12%0.05,000.010,000.015,000.020,000.025,000.030,000.035,000.040,000.02013 2015 2017 2019 2021中国:居民 人均可 支配收 入（元）-20%0%20%40%60%80%0.00.51.01.52.02.53.02013 2015 2017 2019 2021中国居民 人均消 费支出（万元）YOY（右轴）占可支配 收入比 重（右 轴）0204060801001947 1957 1967 1977 1987 1997 2007 2017杠杆率:居 民部门:美国 杠杆率:居 民部门:中国杠杆率:居 民部门:日本 2009 1210 19=+2=-+=+750/42 750/90/00 80%+/7.2%/6.3%/5.5%43 2025 44 2025 2025 2 7 21 人均可支配收入（万元）人均可支配收入同比人均财产净收入（万元）其他净收入其他净收入同比人均贷款余额（万元）贷 款 余 额/其他净收入平均住房贷款利 率（%）利息支出（万元）利息收入（万元）2013 1.83 0.14 1.69 5.26 3.1 6.37%0.34 0.482014 2.02 10.1%0.16 1.86 10.0%5.93 3.2 6.71%0.40 0.562015 2.20 8.9%0.17 2.02 8.9%6.79 3.4 5.32%0.36 0.532016 2.38 8.4%0.19 2.19 8.4%7.66 3.5 4.56%0.35 0.542017 2.60 9.0%0.21 2.39 8.8%8.58 3.6 4.88%0.42 0.632018 2.82 8.7%0.24 2.58 8.3%9.70 3.8 5.62%0.55 0.782019 3.07 8.9%0.26 2.81 8.8%10.86 3.9 5.60%0.61 0.872020 3.22 4.7%0.28 2.94 4.6%12.23 4.2 5.43%0.66 0.942021 3.51 9.1%0.31 3.21 9.0%13.64 4.3 5.49%0.75 1.062022 3.69 5.0%0.32 3.37 5.0%15.16 4.5 4.68%0.71 1.032 0 2 3-假 设 杠 杆 率 下 行 3.99 8.1%0.45 3.53 5.0%13.43 3.8 4.30%0.58 1.032 0 2 3-假 设 杠 杆 率 持 平 3.88 5.2%0.35 3.53 5.0%15.92 4.5 4.30%0.68 1.03人均可支配收入差值（万元）0.11 假设消费支出占比稳定在70%左右，预计杠杆率下行将为消费支出让出空间约750元/年 2009 1210 20 3 52%2001-2022 22 0.1pct 2%2.4%2001-2022 2001 9.6%2022 30%2.6pcts 4%-11/-9/-3/-9pcts 45 50%46 1%-2%Wind Wind 47 Wind 1 2000-2010 CAGR 24%2011 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2018 2019 2020 2021 2022服务消费 占比 货物消费 占比0%20%40%60%80%100%2001 2005 2009 2013 2017 2021化妆品类 服装鞋帽 及针纺 织品类 汽车类粮油食品 类 日用品类 金银珠宝中西药品 饮料类 石油及制 品体育、娱 乐用品 烟酒类 文化办公 类通讯器材 类 家电及音 像类 家具及建 材类消费拆分 化妆品类服装鞋帽及针纺织品类汽车类粮油食品类日用品类 金银珠宝 中西药品 饮料类石油及制品体育、娱乐用品烟酒类文化办公类通讯器材类家电及音像类家具类建筑及装潢材料类家具及建材类合计2001 2.9%19.2%9.6%0.0%7.9%2.6%13.7%2.6%13.7%1.0%5.5%2.6%1.4%15.3%1.0%1.0%2.0%2002 2.7%18.0%13.6%0.0%7.3%2.3%12.6%2.5%13.4%1.0%5.4%2.5%1.9%14.8%1.0%1.1%2.1%2003 2.2%14.0%15.6%13.5%5.6%1.7%9.5%2.1%12.7%0.8%4.2%2.0%2.2%12.0%0.8%1.0%1.8%2004 2.3%13.6%16.0%13.2%5.1%1.8%8.2%2.0%15.2%0.8%4.0%2.0%2.6%11.2%0.8%1.1%1.9%2005 2.1%12.5%19.7%12.2%4.4%1.6%7.0%1.6%17.9%0.7%3.4%2.4%2.8%9.9%0.8%0.9%1.7%2006 1.9%11.9%20.7%11.2%4.2%1.6%6.0%1.5%20.7%0.7%3.2%2.4%2.8%9.5%0.8%0.9%1.7%2007 1.9%11.8%22.3%11.2%4.2%1.8%5.9%1.5%19.6%0.7%3.2%2.3%2.4%9.3%0.9%1.1%2.0%2008 1.9%11.9%22.5%10.7%3.9%2.0%5.4%1.5%22.1%0.6%3.2%2.2%2.0%8.5%0.9%0.8%1.7%2009 1.8%11.3%28.2%9.9%3.9%2.0%5.5%1.4%19.1%0.6%2.8%2.1%1.6%7.7%1.1%1.1%2.1%2010 1.6%10.6%30.2%9.0%3.7%2.3%5.4%1.4%18.9%0.5%2.9%2.0%1.4%7.4%1.3%1.4%2.6%2011 1.5%10.7%28.1%9.5%3.7%2.5%5.0%1.4%19.6%0.5%3.1%2.2%1.4%7.3%1.6%1.9%3.5%2012 1.5%10.8%27.3%9.4%3.8%2.4%5.5%1.4%19.2%0.5%3.0%2.5%1.7%6.9%1.8%2.4%4.2%2013 1.5%10.6%28.0%9.4%3.8%2.7%5.7%1.5%18.0%0.4%3.0%2.4%1.9%6.7%1.9%2.5%4.4%2014 1.6%10.5%28.5%9.8%3.7%2.4%5.9%1.5%17.2%0.4%2.9%2.2%2.3%6.6%2.0%2.5%4.5%2015 1.6%10.5%28.5%10.6%3.8%2.3%6.3%1.6%14.8%0.4%3.0%2.4%2.9%6.7%2.0%2.5%4.5%2016 1.6%10.3%29.6%10.8%4.0%2.1%6.2%1.6%13.8%0.5%3.0%2.5%2.8%6.7%2.1%2.6%4.6%2017 1.7%10.0%29.6%10.7%3.8%2.0%6.5%1.6%13.7%0.5%3.0%2.6%3.0%6.7%2.1%2.4%4.5%2018 2.0%10.3%29.9%10.3%4.1%2.1%4.4%1.6%15.2%0.5%2.8%2.6%3.3%7.0%1.8%2.0%3.9%2019 2.2%10.0%29.9%10.7%4.6%1.9%4.5%1.6%15.1%0.5%2.8%2.5%3.6%7.0%1.5%1.6%3.1%2020 2.6%9.5%31.3%11.1%5.0%1.8%4.0%1.7%13.1%0.6%2.9%2.7%4.2%6.8%1.3%1.4%2.7%2021 2.7%9.2%29.6%11.1%5.0%2.0%4.0%1.9%14.5%0.7%3.1%2.8%4.2%6.5%1.2%1.4%2.6%2022 2.5%8.2%29.8%12.0%4.8%1.8%4.4%1.9%15.3%0.7%3.1%3.0%4.0%6.0%1.1%1.3%2.4%2009 1210 21 32%3%CAGR 2010-2022 3.4%2018-2020 3 2022 2 226/3 CAGR 7%48 2019 49 CAGR 2017-2022-1.49%Wind Wind 2023 50 51 2022 26%Wind Wind 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%0501001502002502004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019 2022中国汽车 千人保 有量（辆/千人）YOY（右轴）-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%05001,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5002000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020中国汽车 销量（万辆）YOY（右轴）-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%0246810121416182000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020中国汽车 均价（万元/辆）YOY（右轴）0%1%2%3%4%5%5%13%26%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%2014 2016 2018 2020 2022新能源车 销量渗 透率（%）2009 1210 22 52 2014-2015 53 54 2018-2020 2021-2022-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%05,00010,00015,00020,00025,00030,00035,00040,00045,00050,0002000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020中国汽车 零售额（亿元）YOY（右轴）0204060801001201999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019洗衣机 冰箱 空调0204060801001201401601999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019洗衣机 冰箱 空调 2009 1210 23 55 2020-2022 CAGR 1.15%56 Wind Wind 1 1 2 90%57()58 Wind-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%05001,0001,5002,0002,5003,0002001 2005 2009 2013 2017 2021家具类零 售额（亿元）YOY（右轴）-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%02,0004,0006,0008,00010,00012,00014,0002012 2015 2018 2021全国规模 以上建 材家居 卖场销 售额（亿 元）YOY（右轴）0%5%10%15%20%25%30%02,0004,0006,0008,00010,00012,00014,00016,00018,00020,0002019 2020 2021 2022 23H1索菲亚品 牌工厂 端客单 价（元）YoY 2009 1210 24 2 5%/26%1-3 8 3 2014 59 2018 60 Wind+2009 1210 25 61 62 2021 2020-2021 1970-1990 1970S-1980S 70%1 2 2009 1210 26 63 2009 1210 27+1+/2+/3/4/64+2009 1210 28 2009 1210 29 2021 2022 2022 2009 1210 30 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-66500808 010-66500821 010-63214682 0755-82828570 0755-83715428 0755-82756804 0755-82871425 0755-83024576 0755-82871425 021-20572536 021-20572555 021-20572257-2552 021-20572506 021-20572585 021-20572509 021-20572548 021-20572573 0755-82756805 021-20572559 021-20572559 0755-82756805 021-20572559 玙 021-25072549 2009 1210 31 A 300 500/6 20%6 10%20%6-10%10%6 10%20%3-6 5%3-6-5%5%3-6 5%26 C 3A 1061 A 19 33 12 100033 518034 200120 010-66500801 0755-82027731 021-20572500 010-66500900 0755-82828562 021-20572522