20230902_招商证券_机械行业船舶专题报告：解析船舶产业链把握船市上行周期全景图_25页.pdf
|2023 09 02/1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 1 2 4 3 5 1 2 3 4 5 21EPS 22EPS 23EPS 22PE 23PE PB 28.4 0.05 0.04 0.24 738.8 120.1 2.7 4.2 0.01-0.1 0.06-42.4 73.1 1.1%466 9.0 3723.3 4.6 2992.0 4.3%1m 6m 12m%1m 6m 12m-3.4-5.3-0.1 1.8 2.9 6.1 1 20230827 2023-08-27 2 7 20230820 2023-08-20 3 7 2023 1-7 2023-08-16 S1090522050002 S1090523080001-15-10-50510Sep/22 Dec/22 Apr/23 Aug/23(%)机械 沪深300 2.4 1.4 2.4 1.4 2.6 3.8.9 1.9 2.11 1.11 2.13 3.14 4.14 5.15.16 1.16 2.16 1.16 2.18 3.20 4.21 5.22.24.24 1.4 2 10mm 20mm.5 3.10 WUDWvMqNoNmNtNpMnQrOmN6M8Q9PnPoOsQmPeRpPxOlOnNqM6MrQsONZrRnRwMsOmO 3 4 2022.10 5.11 6.16 7.17 8 2020 2022.17 9.19 10.19 11.20 12 2022.20 13.24 1.5 2.7 3.8 4.10 5.12 6.13 7.13 8.14 8.14 10.15 11.15 12.17 13.19 14.20 15.21 16.22|2023 09 02 1 20%30%40%5%1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 1 2 1 70%“”7.6 1.1 40 5 2-3 2021 2 5 2022 50%90%LNG LNG 2 10mm 20mm iFinD 1%ROE%600010.SH 721.72 52%12%10%8%17%1%-14.45 7.73-2.00-1.34 600019.SH 3690.58 33%25%4%3%6%28%140.29 5.84 3.81 6.33 000932.SZ 1686.37 19%16%15%10%8%5%4%4%19%76.75 10.32 4.57 13.42 01000200030004000500060007000800010mm钢板平均价格 20mm钢板平均价格 6 000709.SZ 1434.70 62%14%11%5%4%3%1%15.80 9.30 1.10 2.64 iFinD 2022 2 2023 1 7 74 243.9 24.1%2022(FGSS)1000 1-3 3-6 1 2023 1 7 8 8884 1.4%886.2 19.7%IMO 2 2022 279.3 77.53 3 GMDSS 7 AIS 4 5 6 2%ROE(%)600482.SH 382.98 33%25%11%8%8%:3%1%1%3.70 12.84 0.97 0.82 000880.SZ 34.55 51%27%11%10%1.41 13.25 4.07 8.01 600482.SH 382.98 33%25%11%8%8%:3%;1%1%3.70 12.84 0.97 0.82 002151.SZ 38.16 52%25%19%4%0.73 30.23 1.92 3.32 5G 8 300065.SZ 7.24 74%24%2%-8.03 18.25-110.85-39.65(UDC)300600.SZ 2.74 62%33%5%-0.02 35.41-0.63-0.05 601890.SH 15.16 73%26%1%1.52 26.01 10.02 4.66 002552.SZ 13.81 54%29%14%3%-0.45 8.94-3.23-3.35,iFinD 2022 3 IMO+3%ROE%600072.SH 33.49 81%16%2%1%1.09 11.82 3.25 2.76 300008.SZ 27.55 87%5%3%2%1%1%1%1.43 9.62 5.20 8.06,2022 9 1 2023 8 5535 47%2019 104 8900 22 2023 8 2078 37.5%“”LNG 2023 8 570 10.3%1956 2007 600 LNG LEG LPG 2023 8 617 11.1%“”2023 8 371 6.7%1979“”2004 400 7-32 5-32 2023 8 308 5.6%10 3 4 2022 Clackson 2023 8 wind 4()()(%)(%)ROE%600150.SH 595.58 83.94%8.36%4.60%8.72 7.60 1.46 0.37 601989.SH 441.55 31.34%19.71%18.38%:18.18%9.88%-24.33 7.79-5.51-2.68 600685.SH 127.95 61.59 11.99%14.79%8.4%1.57%7.10 6.86 5.55 4.43 BS6.SG 207.05 88.73%6.68%4.59%26.13 15.44 12.62 15.98 2022 1 2 2023 8 4573/1927/1262/481 3 1591,29%2078,37%570,10%617,11%371,7%308,6%其他船厂 中国船舶集团船厂 中远海运重工船厂扬子江造船 招商工业集团船厂 新时代造船-1000100200300400500600700中国船舶 中国重工 中船防务 扬子江船业营业收入(亿元)净利润(亿元)11 5 Clarkson 2023 8 2 1“”TOP5 2022 74/700.61 499.91 85.5%1865“”1999 FPSO/PSV 12 5 2022 LNG VLGC LPG 2 580 73 333 19 147.2 VLOC VLCC VLGC 2 740 95.9 264.4 15 262.8 MR VLOC(VLCC)(VLGC)4 490 53.6 207.6 19 134.5(VLCC)(VLGC)5 330 51.6 137.1 17 125 Clarkson 2023 8“”2022 59/560.5 441.55 50“”“”30 LNG FPSO LNG 1934 6 6 3 LPG 1898 FPSO 300 212 500 4 13 6 2022;VLCC VLOC LNG 5 550 113.2 144.1 9 188.3 DCV5000 LPG-11.6 28.2 15 6.8 VLOC 5 530 25.4 142.7 7 148.5 Clarkson 2023 8“”2022 32/62.8 127.95“”LNG 7 2022 5 360 57.1 119.5 25 65.2 LNG 1 360 64.6 486.6 8 101.3 Clarkson 2023 8 2 2022 72/626.5 14 8 2022 VLOC VLCC LNG/LPG 2 500 45.2 151.5 22 148.2 VLOC VLCC 2 700 47.4 164.8 26 182.5 VLOC VLCC 3 580 42.9 138.1 11 212.4 10 LNG 4 340 16.1 53.8 8 41 LR2 3 537 38.4 52.6 3 41.5 Clarkson 2023 8 3 4 2022 72/432.6 207 8 2022 1 543 79.1 278.3 16 157 LNG LEG LPG 2 440 99.5 225.1 43 177.9 LNG LEG LPG 1 220 23.7 113.2 12 97.2-70 6.8-1 0.5 Clarkson 2023 8 4 2022 40/101 15 10 2022 VLCC VLOC LNG OCV 1 530 17.3 150.6 4 11.4 2 320 51.1 119.1 20 75.6 1 389 13.2 55.2 4 3.2 2-11.1 41.5 11 8.8 Clarkson 2023 8 5 50 800 4 11 30 50 2022 21/318.5 11 2022 VLOC(VLCC)3 588 88.2 308.2 21 318.5 Clarkson 2023 8 16 1 1 2 3 4 5 6 Wind 2 1 17 2020 2022 2023 7 8 2020 2022 M 12%ROE%601919.SH 3910.58 98.2%2.51%1313.38 44.26 33.59 59.56 1308.HK 286.48 99.7%0.3%135.42 48.12 47.40 90.42;600179.SH 91.76 89.17%8.28%2.54%23.42 30.58 25.52 26.90 603565.SH 142.09 47%53%27.43 22.55 19.31 28.36 601022.SH 47.69 81.2%14.15%6.70 20.75 14.05 17.66 02,0004,0006,0008,00010,00012,000德路里世界集装箱运价指数 18%ROE%(872351.BJ)21.15 86.61%8.59%4.79%0.55 6.73 2.62 17.87 2603.TW 1455.31 70%30%759.64 63.52 54.07 78.04 2609.TW 881.6 410.49 61.23 46.67 62.10 Wind 2 2022 52.52 43.76%60%1-4 4-8 8 20 2022+2023 IMO 19 9 10 13%ROE%601872.SH 297.08 39.58%23.95%23.66%50.67 21.92 17.06 17.11 50%CLNG LNG 603162.SH)20.46 61.48%32.40%6.71 39.76 32.82 40.19 000520.SZ)10.42 92.66%7.34%0.36 8.97 3.48 6.75 600798.SH)20.73 77.53%22.33%1.83 17.20 8.81 2.94 Wind 0%20%40%60%80%100%2017 2018 2019 2020 2021铁矿石 煤炭 粮食 小宗干散货 20 3 80%1-5 6-8 8-12 12-20 VLCC 20-30 ULCC 30 VLCC 2023 2022 2021-2022 2022 VLCC 39 42 3 2 2023 11 12 2022 Port of hamburg Wind 14%ROE%600026.SH 186.58 61.07%42.02%11.53%7.53%31.7%17.13%13.98%17.85 18.56 9.57 4.73 05001,0001,5002,0002,5003,0002020-01-02 2021-01-02 2022-01-02 2023-01-02原油运输指数(BDTI)成品油运输指数(BCTI)21%ROE%601872.SH 297.08 39.58%23.95%23.66%50.67 21.92 17.06 17.11 50%CLNG LNG 601975.SH 62.64 80.62%6.74%2.65%14.4%14.47 30.02 23.09 21.78 Wind 4 20 80 15%ROE%600705.SH)181.55 59.99%16.35%11.39%9.8%0.28%29.17 37.30 25.94 4.02 601866.SH 256.34 30.68%;:80.98%;:0.66%39.22 28.20 15.33 13.87 22%ROE%000415.SZ 319.22 79.72%19.2%0.63%-23.7 37.55-7.43-7.45 3877.HK 29.25 81.89%16.33%1.78%15.05 90.56 54.06 14.63 1606.HK 159.82 32.47%30.88%26.26%6.79%3.59%33.51-13.39 9.77 Wind 5 20 70 20 80 90 21 IMO MEPC80 16%ROE%(600150.SH)595.58 83.94%8.36%4.60%8.72 7.60 1.46 0.37 23%ROE%(601989.SH)441.55 31.34%19.71%18.38%:18.18%9.88%-24.33 7.79-5.51-2.68(0317.HK)127.95 18.26%5.28%38.05%11.99%14.79%8.4%1.57%6.88 6.72 5.56 4.42 Wind|2023 09 02 13 1 2 3 4 5 25 6-12 A 300 500 20%5-20%5%5%
