20230922_西部证券_房地产行业城中村改造如箭在弦：从深圳等城市经验看城中村改造的方式与影响_27页.pdf
1|1 3 12-4.01 3.11-15.86 300-2.28-4.96-5.09 S0800523050001 13828881824 8 2023-09-18 2023 37 09090915 2023-09-17 2023 36 09020908 2023-09-10 2023 7 21 8 8 17 8400/2020 19 19 16.7%19 1416 13-17 5 1000 PSL 3.04 30 1400 4.2 5 280 8400 1 2 5 1 2 3-20%-16%-12%-8%-4%0%4%8%2022-09 2023-01 2023-05 300 2023 09 22|2023 09 22 2|.4.5.7 3.1.8 3.1.1.10 3.1.2.11 3.2.12 3.2.1.12 3.2.2.13.14.15 5.1.18 5.2.19 5.3.21 5.4.22 5.5.24 5.6.25.26 1.4 2.8 3-.9 4-.9 5-.10 6.10 7.12 8.13 9.18 10.19 11.19 12 2023H1.19 13.19 XVEVxOqNoNnMtNtQqNsNrQbR8Q6MoMqQnPpMiNoOuNkPoMqO7NpOqNMYrRtRMYqRqO|2023 09 22 3|14.20 15.20 16 TOD.20 17.21 18.22 19.22 20.22 21.23 22.23 23 2023H1.23 24.24 25.25 26.25 27.25 28 2022.26 29.26 1.5 2.7 3.11 4.13 5.14 6.15 7.17 8.17|2023 09 22 4|1978 30 2023 7 21 7 24 8 8 17 1 21|2023 09 22 5|19 2020 19 1 2023 2000 1200 300 100 1000 600 20 2023-2025 30 10 2023 130 4000 2023 12 0.4 28;10 20232025 46()2000 2023 40 4.9()5.2()5502 2023 235 165 155 110 2023 200 50 2023 2025 8.3 112 2069 2025 30 7 23 2023 127 46 12 69 983 49%2030 183:2023 2000 60%2035 297 281 259 22 16 6800 2022-2025 31 2023 2448 3062 616 2022-2025 173 101 2023 616 1500 7 410 2023 26 5 260 600 2023 2023 30 17;|2023 09 22 6|13 242 2023 4 28 202 5 57.11 2 60 7000 2023 88 68 49:19 1 2 3 13 2023 698 1.89 5084.94 2023 60 20 1000 2023 33 20.3 2021-2035:23.7 7.27 2025 63 55 8 933 3.01 2023 120 3000 2023 8012 2023 104 2023 1800 1100 2023-2025 1122:2023 800 2024 322 2025 300 2023 85 175 19 31 1.46;66 144 1995.40 1296 2023 15031 2021-2035:74 15.54 493 200 1500 2023 1500 1005 1100 2000 6 19 16.7%19 1416|2023 09 22 7|2013-2017 5 1000 PSL 3.04 30 1400 4.2 5 280 8400 2 1 2 3 3,548,571 34.28%1,216,473 3,315,054 33.87%1,122,717 3,857,040 33.28%1,283,687 4,948,453 25.20%1,247,150 4,191,418 23.80%997,609 3,580,492 23.76%850,575 4,133,568 21.42%885,613 8,068,465 20.23%1,632,181 4,955,002 20.01%991,427 442,610 16.37%72,467 3,600,088 16.30%586,912 3,931,138 13.96%548,647 8,007,681 12.66%1,013,374 5,057,386 9.21%465,679 12,627,668 3.96%499,472 9,137,928 2.74%250,750 5,464,620 2.32%126,908 7,487,150 2.17%162,114 A A 10,466,847 2.01%209,973 106,821,179 16.71%14,163,729 2020 2009 12 1 1 2 3 1 PSL|2023 09 22 8|2 3 3.1 336 91 1044()35 1.2 49%2020 1082 507 189 183 97 55 51 2 2019-2025|2023 09 22 9|3-4-|2023 09 22 10|5-3.1.1 8000 35 29 504 29 75/1.3 1100 6|2023 09 22 11|3.1.2 3 10 10+3 45.9 350 237 478 590 22 51 90 68 925 279 1500 200 68.5 280 386 108 4.7 15 50 60 100 165 2.28 16 10.5 7.6 3.1 4.1 12.8 4.6 14 13 1998 2006 2011 12 1998 2009 2010 8 2002 2007 2010 2007 60%1 1 1 1 1 1.2 30 1 3.5 1 0.9 1 0.9 1 1 60%1 1 40%1 1 1 3 480 28000/23800 0.9=21420/12800 0.9=11520/11000/6500/480 100/60/(3%)120 35/120 30/60/30/1000/(),500 18/80/|2023 09 22 12|3.2 3.2.1 24 27 270 4 539 8500 1 4 1.5 15 7-|2023 09 22 13|8 3.2.2 2009 2009-2014 2014-2018 2018 CBD 4 24.8 686(16/670/17 330 1400 32.91 27.88 51.99 26.74 63.75 90.49 32.7 4 4 3/3 6 6 1:1 1:1 3 1:1.2 4 1:1.1 5/6 1:0.94 3.5 3000/15000/13000/15000/5/6 8000/|2023 09 22 14|19 5 5 8 27 2022 6 20 8%3 12|2023 09 22 15|90%2023 9 7 2025 4 14 1 2 12 10%3 90%4 2022 12 2023 6 1 2023 2 6 1 2 19 3 6 002208.SZ 59.35%600376.SH 52.65%|2023 09 22 16|600658.SH 45.49%600683.SH 40.00%600791.SH 45.26%601588.SH 34.48%0588.HK 35.82%600159.SH 47.70%600266.SH 41.86%600463.SH 49.32%600743.SH 46.40%000402.SZ 31.14%000797.SZ 54.89%1908.HK 55.99%0123.HK 63.23%600684.SH 32.06%000006.SZ A 36.99%000011.SZ A 50.57%000014.SZ 34.02%000029.SZ A 62.13%000090.SZ 39.57%600383.SH 7.79%000002.SZ A 27.18%0604.HK 62.33%2202.HK 27.18%0152.HK 44.35%002314.SZ()68.44%600185.SH 44.95%600325.SH 27.76%600515.SH 22.06%000886.SZ 25.93%600716.SH 52.44%600510.SH 53.33%600064.SH 34.74%600533.SH 17.00%601512.SH 13.25%600736.SH 39.41%600665.SH 57.52%600639.SH,49.37%600649.SH 46.46%600675.SH 67.03%600708.SH 52.39%600748.SH 38.21%600848.SH 44.77%|2023 09 22 17|600606.SH 46.37%0337.HK 22.59%0363.HK()47.77%600692.SH 32.51%600604.SH 37.88%600773.SH 47.78%600648.SH 53.64%600663.SH 63.47%600895.SH 50.75%000558.SZ 29.90%600082.SH 29.20%600322.SH 26.28%000897.SZ 6.28%000965.SZ 51.45%600239.SH 20.26%000909.SZ ST 39.16%000514.SZ 63.19%iFinD 2023 8 17 7()()2021 2022 2023H1 2021 2022 2023H1 2021 2022 2023H1 2021 2022 2023H1 2121.1 2070.6 729.7 324.0 280.9 137.4 27.0%26.2%25.7%15.3%13.6%18.8%573.8 724.2 321.0 35.9 39.5 21.8 21.8%20.5%17.8%6.3%5.5%6.8%320.5 315.4 60.6-27.2 20.9-1.2 38.8%33.9%34.4%-8.5%6.6%-1.9%232.7 264.6 128.0 19.3 19.5 9.3 19.7%20.4%17.1%8.3%7.4%7.3%69.4 105.5 48.4 3.8 3.4 0.3 22.7%24.8%11.4%5.4%3.2%0.6%75.6 40.3 29.8 8.8 3.3 1.7 28.3%26.7%15.9%11.6%8.3%5.8%8()(,)EPS(/)PE()2023E 2024E 2025E 2023E 2024E 2025E 1109.HK 31.9 2274.77 4.26 4.69 5.26 7.00 6.35 5.66 0123.HK 9.26 372.75 1.10 1.25 1.43 7.90 6.89 6.03 0604.HK 1.28 113.90 0.40-3.01-000090.SZ 6.26 116.97 1.12 1.19 1.29 5.58 5.24 4.87 600665.SH 4.04 34.91 0.59 0.71 0.81 6.85 5.66 4.97 002208.SZ 6.7 53.82-iFinD 2023 9 21 1HKD=0.9340CNY EPS iFinD|2023 09 22 18|5.1 85 3+1 2022 CRH(Land)Limited Commotra Company Limited 59.55%100%9 iFinD 2022 2021 2022 3013 4.6%2022 42.3%2023H1 1702 40.6%2023H1 797 109.7%/2023H1 60%2022 12pct 8 2023H1 3.56%2022 0.19pct 85%2023H1 90%2023H1 93%/|2023 09 22 19|10 11 12 2023H1 13 5.2 1+4 2022 39.78%2019 19.9%89.1%100%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%05001000150020002500300035002018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023H1()-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%050010001500200025002018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023H1()49%44%7%0.0%0.5%1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%3.5%4.0%4.5%5.0%2019 2020 2021 2022 2023H1|2023 09 22 20|14 iFinD 2022 2021 2022 1250 8.6%47.7%2023H1 836 71.0%55.2%TOD 2022 42.3%2023+TOD 2022 TOD 221 23.6%2019-2022 CAGR 63.2%2023H1 TOD 185 53.3%15 16 TOD 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%02004006008001000120014002018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023H1()()-50%0%50%100%150%200%250%0501001502002502019 2020 2021 2022 2023H1TOD()|2023 09 22 21|5.3 2022 62.33%100%17 iFinD 2022 2023 64%2022 192 0.6%2023H1 148 192.1%64%2021 322 410.5%2023H1 27 22.0%2023 6 65%15%19%1%|2023 09 22 22|18 19 20 2023 2023 6 30 5.4 2023 6 30 23.47%16.10%100%-50%0%50%100%150%200%250%0501001502002502018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023H1()0501001502002503003502018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023H1()65%15%19%1%|2023 09 22 23|21 iFinD 2023 2023H1 71 89.7%2023H1 37 51.8%/16/8 22.0%/10.9%115 2023 2022 84 2022 22 23 2023H1-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%140%0204060801001201401601802019 2020 2021 2022 2023H1()51.8%22.0%10.9%5.5%5.3%3.6%0.7%0.2%|2023 09 22 24|5.5 2023 6 30 57.52%100%24 iFinD 2023 2018 52 2021 122 CAGR 32.8%2022 108 11.4%2023H1 60 2.1%57%2022 25 2022 67%|2023 09 22 25|25 26 5.6 2023 6 30 36.92%22.43%100%100%59.35%27 iFinD 2023 2022 59-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%0204060801001201402018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023H1()01020304050607080902019 2020 2021 2022 2023H1()|2023 09 22 26|2022 3 35.7 250.9%2022 28 2022 29 1 2 3 020406080100120140160180 2022()-100%-50%0%50%100%150%200%250%300%05101520253035402019 2020 2021 2022()|2023 09 22 27|6-12 10%6-12-10%10%6-12 10%6-12 20%6-12 5%20%6-12-5%5%6-12 5%6-12 A 300 500 276 12 28 513 6008 10C 021-38584209/QQ BBS 91610000719782242D
