20230821_平安证券_支付行业研究报告：格局篇账户侧双鹏并翼商户侧群雄逐鹿_23页.pdf
支付行业系列研究（二）格局 篇：账户侧 双鹏 并翼，商户侧 群雄逐 鹿 行业深度报告 行业报告 银行 与金融科技 2023 年 08 月 21 日 强 于 大 市（维 持）*20230525 喆 S1060520080003 YUANZHEQI S1060523070003 HUANGWEIHAN S1060123020012 XUMIAO 平安观点：C Worldpay 2022 80%+10%50%30%90%5 CAGR+7.2%2022 61%10%10 19%7 2010 53%128 22 18.6 AH 22 4.5/2.2/2.4/2.6 1 2 3 4 证券研究报告 2/23 正文目录 一、用户侧：技术革新 推动格局重塑，线上巨头引领移动支 付.5 1.1.6 1.2.8 1.3.10 二、商户侧：红海市场 格局分散，看好头部机构突围.12 2.1.12 2.2.14 2.3.20 三、风险提示.22 YWCXxOnQmPqRtNsRsPsNmN6MaO8OoMoOoMtQkPnNvMfQqRrQ9PqRrOvPqQxPvPpMsN 3/23 图表目录 1.5 2.6 3.7 4.7 5 2015 15.8pct.7 6 80%10%.8 7.8 8 14Q2.8 9 20Q2.8 10.9 11 GMV.9 12 GMV 3.9 13 vs.9 14 15 13%.10 15.10 16 2022.11 17 2022.11 18 10 2022.11 19.13 20.13 21.14 22 CR10 60%.14 23.14 24.15 25 2022.16 26 2022.16 27.16 28.16 29.17 30.17 31.17 32 vs 2022.18 33 vs 2022.18 4/23 34.18 35 SaaS.19 36 KOL.19 37 GMV 7.19 38.20 39 2021.20 40 2021.20 41.21 42.21 43 vs.21 44.22 5/23 一、用户侧：技 术 革新推 动格 局重 塑，线 上巨 头引 领移动 支付/Worldpay 2022 80%+10%50%30%90%5 CAGR+7.2%2022 61%10%10 19%7 C2B+1 6/23 1.1 C/1/2 SIM/SIM NFC 3 App 2 1 21 2013 2018 App 7/23 3 2 2022 12 8.5 13.8 2012 2.4 9.4 2023 26.6%2015 15.8 4 5 2015 15.8pct Worldpay 2022 80%+10%50%+30%1.21 1.58 2.03 2.47 3.12 3.80 4.60 5.00 5.33 5.70 7.32 7.89 8.42 8.45 0246810121416012345678920092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022:10.8 12.6 15.0 18.4 20.7 24.9 24.5 27.2 26.6 051015202530024681012142015201620172018201920202021202223H1%8/23 6 80%10%7 WorldPay WorldPay 1.2 1.2.1 CR290%90%1 2 3 4 8 14Q2 9 20Q2 1.2.2 58%62%72%81%0%20%40%60%80%100%2015 2017 2020 2022 50%56%14%18%16%15%13%8%7%3%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%2020 2022 9/23 GMV GMV 2020 GMV 2021 2022 220%76%/3 CAGR+12%3 CAGR+19%3 CAGR+125%3 CAGR+55%3 CAGR+49%10 11 GMV 12 GMV 3 2020 2022 GMV 13 vs-0%20%40%60%80%100%120%140%160%180%200%2019202020212022 GMV-YoY GMV-YoY GMV-YoY GMV-YoY/GMV-YoY 30%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%140%0123456789/GMV 2022 3 CAGR 10/23-1.3 5 CAGR+7.2%2007-2022 13.1%2023 1 95.7 87.8 15 CAGR+12.9%YoY+3.1%7.9 15 CAGR+15.6%YoY-1.4%14 15 13%15 1 2022 61%10%2 10 19%7 020406080100120200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021202223Q1:():()CAGR(2007-2022)13.1%12.9%15.6%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021202223Q1:YoY:YoY:YoY 11/23 16 2022 17 2022 2020 18 10 2022 1 2 21H1 020,00040,00060,00080,000100,000120,000140,000(2022)8%14%13%14%17%20%17%20%11%20%17%20%19%28%29%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%02,0004,0006,0008,00010,00012,00014,00016,00018,000(2022)10 GAGR 12/23 二、商 户 侧：红 海 市场 格 局分 散，看好头 部机 构突围 2010 53%128 22 18.6 AH 22 4.5/2.2/2.4/2.6 2015 83 1 2 3 2023 7 2 2.1 1 1 2 2002 POS 1.J.,2022(7):57-62.13/23 19 2021 3 20 2021 14/23 50%60%21 22 CR10 60%2022 2022 2.2 2.2.1 188 128 59 106 47 39 23 59.58%67.47%66.45%0.0%0.5%1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%3.5%4.0%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%POS CR10 2021 188128591064739050100150200 2023 7 31 15/23 1 2 POS 75%10%3 24 2022()1-85%4.52 10.9%2 100%81%2.23 5.4%3 80%77%-4 95%96%-5 100%25%+71%2.58 6.2%6 60%45%+30%2.40 5.8%7 100%11%-8 98%77%1.72 4.2%9 100%-10 100%-2022 45%10.9%6.2%5.8%5.4%30%16/23 25 2022 26 2022=/2.2.2 2022 0.1%2015 83 27 28=/2017 259 2022 2023 18.6 4.5 2.6 2.4 2.2 02468101214161820 2022 0.08%0.10%0.12%0.14%0.16%0.18%0.20%20182019202020212022 45%56%67%74%76%81%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%2016 2017 2018 2019-17/23 5 29 2013/7/5 2013/7/5 2013 9 2015/6/29 2015/6/29 2015199 2016/9/30 2016/9/30 2016261 2017/1/22 2017/1/22 201721 2017/2/21 2017/2/21 201745 2017/12/15 2017/12/15 2017281 2017/12/22 2017/12/22 2017242 2017/12/25 2018/4/1 2017296 2019/3/25 2019/3/25 201985 2021/1/20/2021/10/13 2022/3/1 2021259 2023/5/19 2023/5/19 202381 2015 83 2016 2022 23 2023 13 188 30 31 2023 7 31 2.2.3-300%-200%-100%0%100%200%300%400%500%2019202020212022 101197250269 269 267247238 2372332242011880501001502002503000204060801001202011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023()18/23 32 vs 2022 33 vs 2022 1+2 3 POS+4 34 010203040506070809010005101520253035(%)(%)01020304050607080(%)(%)支付业务85%科技服务业务7%其他8%电子支付产品及信息识读产品45%商户运营及增值服务40%行业应用与软件开发及服务15%产品制造25%收单及增值服务71%审核服务1%其他3%一站式支付服务81%到店电商10%商户解决方案9%19/23 SaaS 2019 SaaS SaaS SaaS 2022 SaaS 8.74 55.4 GMV3.96 35 SaaS 2020 App GMV 1500 22H1 2022 40 SKU 3700 GMV 33 2021 7 139%3.54 36 KOL 37 GMV 7 4.033.01.48 3.54 0.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.54.0051015202530352021 2022 GMV 20/23 B2B SaaS 38 2.3 2 39 2021 40 2021 2022 2022 21/23 2016 500 41 42 QFPay 43 vs POS POS POS to App to to-.22/23 2012 2021 62 2015-2016 2022 2 POS 2013 10 2020 1 44/2014.12()3.15 68.7%2015.7()6 65%2016.5()6.8 100%2016.9()13.5 100%2016.9 4 100%2017.12 3 100%2020.9()4.16 100%2021.11 1.18 65.5%2022.6 4.49 100%2022.12 2.66 90.01%三、风险提示 1 2 3 4 平 安 证 券 研 究 所投资 评级：股票投资评级:6 20%6 10%20%6 10%6 10%行业投资评级:6 5%6 5%6 5%公司 声明及风险提示：免责条款：2023 平安证券研究所 4008866338 5023 B 25 518033 1333 26 200120 4 1 B 25
