|1935 1618+24 24 PET 24 C 24+(600519)(000858)(000568)(600809)(600779)(00291)(600600)(09633)(603711)(605337)(605499)B(300997)(600887)(02319)(002946)/2023 11 21 S0860517090002 021-63325888*6079 S0860519080001 021-63325888*6084 S0860520010002 BTB487 2023-09-24 2023-09-17 2023-09-10 2024 2.7.9 2.1.9 2.2.16 2.2.1 16 2.2.2 19 2.3.22+.22 3.1.22 3.2.25 3.3.27 3.4.28.29 4.1.29 4.2.32 4.2.1 32 4.2.2“”35 4.3.36.37 5.1.37 5.2.39 5.3.41 5.4.43.44 ZXDWxOtOsRmNqOtQqNtMqR7NbPbRtRnNpNnOlOnMqRfQnPtRaQoPmQvPrRsQwMtQzQ 3 1 GDP.7 2 20.7 3 GDP.7 4/.7 5.10 6.10 7.10 8.10 9.10 10 2004.11 11 2015 300.12 12 PE.13 13 PE.13 14 PE TTM.14 15.15 16.15 17.15 18.15 19.15 20/.16 21.17 22.17 23.17 24.17 25.17 26.17 27/.18 28 1935.18 29/.18 30 22.18 31/.19 32.19 33/.19 34 20 30/.19 4 35 M2%.20 36 LPR%.20 37%.20 38%.20 39 PMI%.20 40%.20 41%.21 42%.21 43.21 44%.21 45.23 46.23 47.23 48.23 49 17-22 CAGR.24 50 23.24 51.24 52.24 53.25 54.25 55.25 56.25 57.26 58.26 59 23.27 60 23.27 61.27 62.27 63.28 64.28 65.28 66.28 67.29 68.30 69 PE.30 70.31 71.31 72 2023.31 5 73 2023.31 74 PET.32 75.32 76 2021.33 77.33 78.34 79.34 80.34 81.34 82.35 83.35 84.35 85 2022.35 86.36 87.36 88.37 89.37 90 PE TTM.37 91%.38 92.39 93.39 94.39 95.39 96.40 97.40 98.40 99/.40 100.41 101.41 102.42 103.42 104.42 105 2023.43 106 2023.43 107 2023.43 1 7.7 6 2 2024.12 3.13 4.14 5.24 6.30 7.31 8.38 7 2023Q3 GDP 4.9%2023Q2 2023 7 8 9 2.5%4.6%5.5%15.8%12.4%13.8%9 1 GDP 2 20 2022 GDP 52.8%2022 2.0 4.9 14-22 CAGR 8.5%6.9%3 GDP 4/23 7 1 7/8 28 2027-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%15Q115Q316Q116Q317Q117Q318Q118Q319Q119Q320Q120Q321Q121Q322Q122Q323Q123Q3GDP-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%2020/062020/082020/102020/122021/032021/052021/072021/092021/112022/022022/042022/062022/082022/102022/122023/032023/052023/072023/09 0.0%20.0%40.0%60.0%80.0%100.0%010,00020,00030,00040,00050,00060,0002013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 8 8 30 3 7 24 7 27 8 1 16 8 25 8 31 20%30%10%-40%LPR 60BP LPR 20BP 40BP 8 2 4 2027 8 2 6 2027 8 22 8 23 8 27 8 27 IPO 10 31 10 24 2023 10000 EPS 9 1935 1618+24 24 PET 24 C 24+2.1 2022 2202 yoy+29%2017 2022 16%2017 18.2%2022 33.2%3.0pct 10 5 资料来源：国家 统计局、东方 证券研 究 所 6 资料来源：国家 统计局、东方 证券研 究 所 23 3-6 35%7-9 20%7 资料来源：国家 统计局、东方 证券研 究 所 23 15.1%17.7%8 9-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%05001,0001,5002,0002,500-4%-2%0%2%4%6%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%/-50.0%-40.0%-30.0%-20.0%-10.0%0.0%10.0%20.0%30.0%0.020.040.060.080.0100.0120.0140.02021-022021-032021-042021-052021-062021-072021-082021-092021-102021-112021-122022-032022-042022-052022-062022-072022-082022-092022-102022-112022-122023-032023-042023-052023-062023-072023-082023-09白酒当月产量（万吨）同比 11 Wind Wind 89 02 03 14 15 2020 2021 2022 22 12 23 2 10 2004 Wind 300 1 15 17 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%02004006008001,0001,2001,400 0%20%40%60%80%100%0100200300400500600 12 300 13%25%56%2 18 18Q3-1.6%3 19 56%4 20 20H1 20H2 93%5 21 300 2%6 22,300 9%7 23 1-10 300-3%11 2015 300 资料来源：Wind、东方证券 研究所（注：收盘价 时间为 2023 年 10 月 31 日）2024 2 2024 1 2 2 2 3 月底 3 4 23 24 5 月下旬 至6 月初 8 9 初至10 月 10 10 11 25 资料来源：上海 兴壹文 化传播 公司官 网、东方证 券研究 所-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%140%300 13 PE 15 1 15 17 2 18 PE 3 19 4 20 PE 20Q1/Q2 Q3 5 21 PE 6 22 PE 7 23 PE 15 23 11 9 PE(TTM)16.7 71.4 32.6 30.6 23 11 9 2015 20%1 15 18 159%127%PE 15%2 19 20 PE 292%37%PE 185%3 21-2%20%PE-19%4 22 14%19%PE 28%5 23 1-11 11 9 4%19%PE 19%Wind 11 14 24 25 22 19 12 PE 13 PE Wind 23 11 9 Wind 23 23 11 9 2019 20%PE(12)18 2019 10%3 12 26 18 19 23 17 19 26 15 2019 59 54 63 1 0 3 78 57 98 42 19 12 13 15 13 16 14 14 31 22 27 35 25 24 29 21 18%14%12%9%6%7%14%3%2014 59 54 63 1 0 3 1 7 0 91 98 42 8 5 6 8 12 16 14 7 01020304050607080010,00020,00030,00040,00050,00060,00070,0002014/122015/062016/012016/082017/032017/092018/042018/112019/062020/012020/082021/022021/092022/042022/112023/06()PE TTM-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%PE 14 29 21 25 33 27 25 29 20 35%26%24%16%3%4%15%22%2009 59 54 63 1 0 3 1 7 0 91 98 42 8 5 6 8 11 12 10 6 27 21 23 31 27 24 30 20 35%26%24%16%4%10%18%23%资料来源：Wind、东方证券 研究所（注：估值时 间为 2023 年 11 月 14 日）2019 40%PE 20 4 12 25 18 14 21 24 24 26 28 2019 52 40 25 36 54 40 71 71 13 12 11 12 16 10 13 13 35 21 16 22 33 24 31 28 31%21%22%34%22%47%23%26%2014 52 40 58 70 54 40 71 71 11 12 11 12 12 9 12 13 31 21 17 22 29 23 32 28 34%21%7%14%29%49%23%26%2009 69 40 58 70 54 44 82 71 10 12 11 12 11 9 12 13 30 21 17 22 26 23 32 28 26%21%7%14%30%43%20%26%资料来源：Wind、东方证券 研究所（注：估值时 间为 2023 年 11 月 14 日）14 PE TTM 010203040506070 15 资料来源：Wind、东方证券 研究所（截止 2023 年 11 月 15 日）2021 2018 15 资料来源：Wind、东方证券 研究所（截止 2023 年 11 月 15 日）23Q3 2022 Q2 2023Q3 1.3%6.0%23Q2 0.1%0.7%16 17 Wind Wind Q3 18 19-100%-90%-80%-70%-60%-50%-40%-30%-20%-10%0%2008 2012-2014 2018 2021-0.0%2.0%4.0%6.0%8.0%10.0%2015Q12015Q32016Q12016Q32017Q12017Q32018Q12018Q32019Q12019Q32020Q12020Q32021Q12021Q32022Q12022Q32023Q12023Q3 0.00%0.50%1.00%1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%2015Q12015Q32016Q12016Q32017Q12017Q32018Q12018Q32019Q12019Q32020Q12020Q32021Q12021Q32022Q12022Q32023Q12023Q3 16 Wind、Wind、2.2 2.2.1 23 11 1 20%2018 1935 1935 1935 20/Wind 3000 2023 1032.68 18.5%23Q3 114.0 23H1 55.4%0.00%0.20%0.40%0.60%0.80%1.00%2015Q12015Q32016Q12016Q32017Q12017Q32018Q12018Q32019Q12019Q32020Q12020Q32021Q12021Q32022Q12022Q32023Q12023Q3 0.00%0.10%0.20%0.30%0.40%0.50%2015Q12015Q32016Q12016Q32017Q12017Q32018Q12018Q32019Q12019Q32020Q12020Q32021Q12021Q32022Q12022Q32023Q12023Q3 218 268 308 358 438 499 619 819 969 1163 02004006008001,0001,2001,400 53,500ml 17 21 22 Wind Wind 1573 23 625.36 12.1%23Q3 170.30 17.0%Q3 Q2 23Q3 39.49 H1 8.2%23 24 Wind Wind 23 219.43 25.2%23Q3 73.5 25.4%1573 23Q3 29.6 H1 53.2%25 26 0%5%10%15%20%0200400600800100012001400 020406080100120140160180 0%5%10%15%20%25%050100150200250300350 0204060801001201400%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%01020304050607080 0510152025303540 18 Wind Wind 1935 1935 22 52 23 100 1935 1935 23Q3 23 9 500-800 27/28 1935 23 11 15 Wind 1618 99.99%2000 1618 29/30 22 05001,0001,5002,000 1935/57%4%8%2%30%1618 19 23 11 15 21 40%31/32 23 11 15 30 20 20 2023 20 33/34 20 30/23 11 15 Wind 2.2.2 0%20%40%60%80%100%120%0510152025302019 2022 2023E 01002003004005006007008009002022/1/12022/2/72022/3/132022/4/162022/5/202022/6/232022/7/272022/8/302022/10/32022/11/62022/12/102023/1/132023/2/212023/3/272023/4/302023/6/32023/7/72023/8/102023/9/132023/10/17 20 30 20 LPR 2023 M2 10%23 3 9 5 LPR 4.2%2023 10 35 M2%36 LPR%Wind Wind 23 9 9%37%38%iFind iFind Q4 23 10 PMI 49.5%50.6%9 0.7%1.1%PMI 2023 Q4 39 PMI%40%0.002.004.006.008.0010.0012.0014.002017/1/312017/6/302017/11/302018/4/302018/9/302019/2/282019/7/312019/12/312020/5/312020/10/312021/3/312021/8/312022/1/312022/6/302022/11/302023/4/302023/9/30:M2:3.844.24.44.64.850.005.0010.0015.0020.002018/1/312018/5/312018/9/302019/1/312019/5/312019/9/302020/1/312020/5/312020/9/302021/1/312021/5/312021/9/302022/1/312022/5/312022/9/302023/1/312023/5/312023/9/30:(LPR):5 0.005.0010.0015.0020.002017/1/312017/6/302017/11/302018/4/302018/9/302019/2/282019/7/312019/12/312020/5/312020/10/312021/3/312021/8/312022/1/312022/6/302022/11/302023/4/302023/9/30:-40.00-30.00-20.00-10.000.0010.0020.0030.0040.002017/1/312017/6/302017/11/302018/4/302018/9/302019/2/282019/7/312019/12/312020/5/312020/10/312021/3/312021/8/312022/1/312022/6/302022/11/302023/4/302023/9/30:21 Wind Wind 23 23 7-9 3.8%3.9%4.0%5.2%5.0%5.6%41%42%Wind Wind 23Q2 Q3 6%23 7 23 10 7.6%9 2.1pct 43 44%-10.00-5.000.005.0010.0015.00 PMI PMI-30.00-20.00-10.000.0010.0020.0030.0040.002017/2/282017/6/302017/10/312018/3/312018/7/312018/11/302019/4/302019/8/312019/12/312020/5/312020/9/302021/2/282021/6/302021/10/312022/3/312022/7/312022/11/302023/4/302023/8/31:-20.00-10.000.0010.0020.0030.0040.002017/1/312017/6/302017/11/302018/4/302018/9/302019/2/282019/7/312019/12/312020/5/312020/10/312021/3/312021/8/312022/1/312022/6/302022/11/302023/4/302023/9/30:-10.00-5.000.005.0010.0015.0020.0025.002017/2/282017/6/302017/10/312018/3/312018/7/312018/11/302019/4/302019/8/312019/12/312020/5/312020/9/302021/2/282021/6/302021/10/312022/3/312022/7/312022/11/302023/3/312023/7/31:22 Wind Wind 2.3 11 23 200 1935 100 1618 20 20 2023 30%20+3.1 23Q3 0.001.002.003.004.005.006.007.00%-15.00-10.00-5.000.005.0010.0015.0020.00:23 2013 2020 3,411 7.0%21 3,562 5.6%22 1.1%3569 23 2.1%7-9 3.4%5.8%8.0%24 24 45 46 1 99 04 CAGR 8.1%0.3%2 05 13 CAGR 8.3%5.2%3 14-17 CAGR-1.8%3.9%4 18 2018 2022 1.1%8.9%2018 2022 0.2%4.7%47 48-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,000-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%01002003004005002020/032020/052020/072020/092020/112021/032021/052021/072021/092021/112022/032022/052022/072022/092022/112023/032023/052023/072023/09-10.0%-5.0%0.0%5.0%10.0%15.0%20.0%25.0%-4.0%-2.0%0.0%2.0%4.0%6.0%8.0%10.0%99-04 05-13 14-17 18-22 CAGR CAGR 24 2017 2022 CAGR-1.3%0.3%-1.9%CAGR 4.8%4.1%6.9%2023 23 6.2%1.9%5.5%3.8%49 17-22 CAGR 50 23 20-22 2022 1%8%PE 6%23 1-10 19%18%PE 31%23 11 2 PE 29 Wind 11 2 2023 2024 PE 28 23 51 52 Wind 11 2 Wind 2019 10%5 12 34 23 21 21 38 2019 95 49 1 0 0 56 81 32 20 21 21 37 58 25 36 34 47 4%9%0%2%4%-4.0%-2.0%0.0%2.0%4.0%6.0%8.0%10.0%CAGR CAGR0.00%1.00%2.00%3.00%4.00%5.00%6.00%7.00%020406080100020004000600080001000012000 PE(TTM)-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%PE 25 2014 95 2 3 0 1 0 0 56 81 20 20 21 19 37 54 26 35 33 48 19%1%0%5%4%2009 95 2 3 0 1 9 9 56 81 13 20 21 18 17 51 26 36 31 46 26%1%0%8%33%资料来源：Wind、东方证券 研究所（注：估值时 间为 2023 年 11 月 2 日）3.2 2024 23 9 27%8 4 24 12-15%5%0.6-0.75%23 10 18%9 10 24 53 54 Wind Wind 11 2023 1-10 2%11 2024 23 23 1-10 13%24 55 56-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%0501001502002503003504004502015/012015/072016/012016/072017/012017/072018/012018/072019/012019/072020/012020/072021/012021/072022/012022/072023/012023/07/-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%05001,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5002018/1/312018/5/312018/9/302019/1/312019/5/312019/9/302020/1/312020/5/312020/9/302021/1/312021/5/312021/9/302022/1/312022/5/312022/9/302023/1/312023/5/312023/9/30/26 Wind Wind 2024 2024 2015 23H1 29.4%1.4pct 57 58 Wind Wind 1 24 2 3-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%05,00010,00015,00020,00025,0002018/1/312018/5/312018/9/302019/1/312019/5/312019/9/302020/1/312020/5/312020/9/302021/1/312021/5/312021/9/302022/1/312022/5/312022/9/302023/1/312023/5/312023/9/30/-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,0002015/012015/072016/012016/072017/012017/072018/012018/072019/012019/072020/012020/072021/012021/072022/012022/072023/012023/07/0%10%20%30%40%14H114H215H115H216H116H217H117H218H118H219H119H220H120H221H121H222H122H223H1 0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%2008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023Q1-Q3 27 59 23 资料来源：Wind、东方证券 研究所 60 23 资料来源：Wind、东方证券 研究所 3.3 23Q3 24 2019 2022Q4 5%23Q3 7.5%2023H1-0.35pct+1.96pct+5.08pct+0.62pct 23 Q1-Q3 11.0%2.7%-11.3%Q3 10 61 62 2020 2021 5.4%2023H1-1%-1%0%1%1%2%23-1%-1%0%1%1%2%2%23-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%19Q119Q219Q319Q420Q120Q220Q320Q421Q121Q221Q321Q422Q122Q222Q322Q423Q123Q223Q3-10.00%-5.00%0.00%5.00%10.00%15.00%20.00%2022H1 2022H2 2023H1 28 144 26.4%22.0%yoy+3.8pct 23H1 60%23Q3 63 64 23H1 9.8 yoy-51.2%4.0 22H1 41%1 21 2 1/3 10 650/2024 65 66 23H1 3.4-10%-5%0%5%10%15%0%5%10%15%20%25%020406080100120140160-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%05101520253035402019 2020 2021 2022H1 2023H1 yoy-100%-50%0%50%100%150%200%250%300%350%024681012142019 2020 2021 2022H1 2023H1 yoy 29(600600)ASP 24 11 2 2019 2%(00291)4+4 superX 23 4.1 1 90 03 2 03 08 3 08 15 4 2015 2020 5735 15-20CAGR 3.2%67()-3%-2%-1%0%1%2%3%4%5%6%7%01000200030004000500060007000800090002015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2025E 30 2023 1-10 10 27 12%28%PE 13%2023 11 6 PE 28 Wind 11 6 2023 2024 PE 27 23 68 69 PE Wind 2023 11 3 Wind 886044.WI 2023 1-10 10 27 PE 2019 15%PE 2014 15%PE 6 12 39 30 20 12 16 19 24 2019 99 82 50 22 18 35 1 1 0 35 23 15 11 9 11 16 46 35 21 13 14 20 37 5%1 1%13%1 1%77%34%9%2014 99 82 50 35 21 49 1 1 0 35 23 15 11 9 11 15 42 33 19 13 13 19 37 5%1 1%13%5%54%22%9%2009 99 82 50 45 21 49 1 1 0 35 23 15 11 9 11 15 40 31 18 15 12 16 34 5%1 1%13%4%54%22%9%资料来源：Wind、东方证券 研究所（注：估值时 间为 2023 年 11 月 6 日）NFC 010203040506070020004000600080001000012000140002014/122015/052015/102016/042016/092017/032017/082018/012018/072018/122019/062019/112020/042020/102021/032021/082022/022022/072023/012023/06 PE(TTM,)-100%-50%0%50%100%150%200%250%300%PE 31 7 N FC NFC R I O 资料来源：东方 证券研 究所整理 2022 199.6 15-22 CAGR 37%2015 1.8 2022 14 70 71 18-30 72 2023 73 2023 0%20%40%60%80%100%120%050100150200250300350400450 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%02468101214162015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 32 PET 23 4 23 11 7000/4 11%23 10 32%PET 23 PET Covrig Analytics Czarnikow 2023/24 2024 PET 74 PET 75 Wind Wind 4.2 4.2.1 34.0%35.1%22.4%6.2%2.3%18-23 24-30 31-40 41-50 51 71.4%21.3%3.9%2.2%1.2%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%02,0004,0006,0008,00010,0002020/1/312020/4/302020/7/312020/10/312021/1/312021/4/302021/7/312021/10/312022/1/312022/4/302022/7/312022/10/312023/1/312023/4/302023/7/312023/10/31:PET():/-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,0008,0009,0002020/1/312020/4/302020/7/312020/10/312021/1/312021/4/302021/7/312021/10/312022/1/312022/4/302022/7/312022/11/302023/2/282023/5/312023/8/31/33 2011 2021 2021 2164 21 11.8%8.1%4.8%3.0%2.4%76 2021 2020 2021 2022 2022 1139 5.0%2023 2018 0.5 2022 4.5 77 2022 332.4 yoy+11.9%2023H1 204.6 yoy+23.3%23H1 11.7%21H2 50%23H1 32.2%C100 NFC 11.80%8.10%4.80%3.00%2.40%69.90%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%140%010000200003000040000500002018 2019 2020 2021 2022 34 78 79 2023Q1 Q2 Q3 34.3%37.0%42.3%Meco C 80 81 23 23Q1-Q3 5.3pct 5.7pct 3.7pct 020406080100120 2022H1 2022H2 2023H1-40.0%-20.0%0.0%20.0%40.0%60.0%80.0%2022H1 2022H2 2023H1-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%051015202530354045-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%35 260g 1L 82 83 iFind Wind 4.2.2 2022 8885 17-22CAGR+11.3%2022 1/5 1/2 84 85 2022 Datayes 2023H1 35.76%01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0002020/012020/042020/072020/102021/012021/042021/072021/102022/012022/042022/072022/102023/012023/042023/072023/10 GDT/283032343638(%)0.0%10.0%20.0%30.0%40.0%50.0%60.0%70.0%02000400060008000100002010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022 52%11%8%7%6%16%36 2023 79.9 15.3%23 11 23 1 4 2023Q1-Q3 14.3%192.0%326.4%Q1-Q3 4.3%10.1%Q4 23Q3 86 87 4.3(09633)NFC(603711)(605337)260g 1L 0%50%100%150%200%250%300%350%00.511.522.533.52023Q1 2023Q2 2023Q3 84%86%88%90%92%94%96%98%100%2023Q1 2023Q2 2023Q3 37(605499)300(300997)ToB 5.1 24 2022 4717 1.1%2.0%0.9%2023 2024 88 资料来源：国家 统计局、东方 证券研 究 所 89 资料来源：国家 统计局、东方 证券研 究 所 2023 1-10 12%90 PE TTM 0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%01,0002,0003,0004,0005,000-10%0%10%20%30%40%38 Wind CI005331.WI 2019 30%2019 5%8 12 15 14 18 18 16 25 46 27 2019 35 34 43 60 31 68 88 79 14 13 15 17 14 19 23 11 19 19 22 23 20 29 33 25 4%4%9%2%16%12%36%24%2014 35 34 43 60 57 68 88 3 1 8 14 13 15 17 14 19 23 11 18 19 22 23 21 29 34 26 5%5%12%2%6%12%36%5%2009 35 34 59 60 57 68 88 3 1 8 14 13 15 17 14 19 6 11 19 19 23 23 21 29 33 25 6%5%7%2%6%12%49%5%资料来源：Wind、东方证券 研究所（注：估值时 间为 2023 年 11 月 8 日）2022 2023 11 13 5.9%3.8%91%02040608010012014005,00010,00015,00020,00025,00030,00035,0002014-12-052015-03-132015-06-192015-09-252015-12-312016-04-152016-07-222016-11-042017-02-102017-05-192017-08-252017-12-082018-03-162018-06-222018-09-282019-01-112019-04-262019-08-022019-11-082020-02-212020-05-