20231209_华创证券_环保行业2024年度投资策略：把握成长、价值、周期三条主线_26页.pdf
2009 1210 2023 12 9 2024 300 1 2023 132 2368.24 3.12%232.01 0.96%57 47 2023 300 7-8 300 2023 12 7 300 6.64%1 CCER 2024 2+2023 UCO 24 5 EPS PE PB 2023E 2024E 2025E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2023E 8.81 0.98 1.19 1.28 8.99 7.42 6.91 1.23 16.30 1.32 1.43 1.49 12.35 11.42 10.97 1.33 18.96 0.53 0.90 1.26 35.45 21.08 15.03 2.49 21.69 0.53 0.94 1.27 41.00 23.10 17.02 3.13 8.74 0.33 0.54 0.67 26.10 16.20 13.02 2.11 12.55 0.59 0.72 0.87 21.18 17.43 14.40 2.07 9.82 0.77 0.87 1.02 12.81 11.27 9.60 2.02 6.08 0.57 0.81 1.09 10.63 7.50 5.58 1.77 40.42 1.80 3.77 5.37 22.46 10.73 7.53 1.74 Wind 2023 12 1 010-63214656 S0360518070002%()156 0.02()9,511.26 1.07()7,631.23 1.11%1M 6M 12M 0.8%-2.2%-4.7%3.3%6.3%5.8%2023 43 2023M1-M10 2023-11-26 2023-11-23 2023 42 2023-11-19-12%-6%0%6%22/12 23/02 23/04 23/07 23/09 23/112022-12-052023-12-01 300 2024 2009 1210 2024 2024 WUAZvMqNtQrQpRtQsPsNrQ6MaOaQoMoOoMoNiNoPsQfQoPmR7NqQwONZsOpMwMtOnP 2024 2009 1210 3 2023 Q1-Q3.6 300.6.6“”.7 2023.7+.8.14“”.17.17 1.17 2.18 3.19.20“”.21.22.23 2024 2009 1210 4 1 2023 300.6 2 PE TTM.6 3 2023Q1-Q3.6 4 2023 Q1-Q3.6 5 2023 Q1-Q3.7 6 2023 Q1-Q3.7 7 2023 Q1-Q3.7 8 2023 Q1-Q3.7 9.8 10.8 11.8 12.9 13.9 14.9 15.10 16.10 17 36.10 18.10 19 2022/.11 20.12 21.12 22.13 23.13 24.13 25.14 26 2013-2022.14 27 100%.15 28.15 29 2019-2022.15 30 2022%.16 31 2022/.16 32 2018-2023Q3.16 33 2018-2022.17 2024 2009 1210 5 34 2018-2022.17 35 2018-2022.17 36 2022.17 37 2022.18 38 2022.18 39 2018-2022.18 40 2018-2022.18 41 2018-2022.19 42 2022.19 43 2022.19 44 2022.19 45 UCO.22 46 UCO/.22 47.22 48/.22 2024 2009 1210 6 2023 Q1-Q3 300 2023 300 7-8 300 2023 12 7 300 6.64%2017 1 2023 300 2 PE TTM Wind Wind 137 1 2023 3.12%2368.24 2 2023 0.96%232.01 2023 195.04 3.41%3 2023 1.33pct 26.93%0.62pct 10.41%3 2023Q1-Q3 4 2023 Q1-Q3 Wind Wind-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%300 0102030405060()801970.SI985 1,336 1,626 2,031 2,464 3,200 3,330 2,368 0.0%5.0%10.0%15.0%20.0%25.0%30.0%35.0%40.0%05001,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,500 143 186 120 149 204 253 245 232-40.0%-30.0%-20.0%-10.0%0.0%10.0%20.0%30.0%40.0%050100150200250300 2024 2009 1210 7 5 2023 Q1-Q3 6 2023 Q1-Q3 Wind Wind 2023 2.36%2022 0.03 6.45%2022 0.05 4.12%2022 0.26 2022 0.06pct 57.06%7 2023 Q1-Q3 8 2023 Q1-Q3 Wind Wind 2023 2023 1.28%300 13%2023.12.7 127 168 100 135 171 184 167 195-50.0%-40.0%-30.0%-20.0%-10.0%0.0%10.0%20.0%30.0%40.0%050100150200250 0.0%5.0%10.0%15.0%20.0%25.0%30.0%35.0%0.00%2.00%4.00%6.00%8.00%10.00%12.00%46.00%48.00%50.00%52.00%54.00%56.00%58.00%60.00%62.00%2024 2009 1210 8 9 10 Wind Wind 11 Wind 2024+1 20 90 2022 99.39%97.86%2000 2 2000-2010 19%2022 1045/38.85%2022 98.11%96.94%-10.00-5.000.005.0010.0015.0020.001992-031993-091995-031996-091998-031999-092001-032002-092004-032005-092007-032008-092010-032011-092013-032014-092016-032017-092019-032020-092022-032023-09 _GDP_ _ 0.00001.00002.00003.00004.00005.00006.0000 _ _10-15.00%-10.00%-5.00%0.00%5.00%10.00%15.00%20.00%300 2024 2009 1210 9 12 13 2022 2022 WIND 2010 2011 2020 24%2020 2022 14 Wind IWA 36 0.67%1.5%3%2024 2009 1210 10 15 16 IWA 2021 2023 12 8 7.15 3 3-5 0.3-0.45 2019 2017-2019 10 17 36 18 2022,Wind Wind 48.94 44.56 31.89 26.10 26.70 21.25 43.14 34.19 38.93 28.64 35.85 32.65 41.19 47.18 46.40 38.91 20.88 26.93 14.65 29.84 0.00 20.00 40.00 60.00 80.00 100.00俄罗斯 莫斯科加拿大 温哥华丹麦 奥尔堡丹麦 欧登塞丹麦 艾斯堡丹麦 奥胡斯美国 华盛顿挪威 奥斯陆美国 洛杉矶挪威 卑尔根 4.28 4.00 3.64 3.60 3.45 3.20 3.20 2.85 2.60 2.55 0.95 0.90 1.36 0.95 0.95 1.00 1.00 0.95 0.95 0.76 0 1 2 3 4 5 6石家庄天津北京长春郑州济南昆明西安哈尔滨银川 2024 2009 1210 11 19 2022/1998 2011+2004 2021 10 1 2 3 4 2024 2009 1210 12 20 6-817%60%21/2.25 3.32 11.62 17.19%2021.8.31 2021.11.1 8 2.7 3.5 5 58.82%2021.9.29 2021.11.1/2.95 3.85 5.70 18%2021.9.28 2022.1.1 7 2.57 3.82 10.04 33.85%2021.11.30 2022.1.1 6 2.6 3.25 5.78/2022.1.28 2022.2/2 2.4 3 21.21%2021.10.28 2022.5.1/0.5/-3/36 3.44/(SL72 2013)1.5%3%0.21%0.67%2024 2009 1210 13 22 Wind 2014 2018 2014 37.67%5.08 2018 2019 2019 29.48%8.74 2013 33.29%2022 41.60%23 24 Wind Wind A/4.89%/4.69%/4.83%60%02468102012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2024 2009 1210 14 25 Wind 2023.12.7 2022 2020 15 2022 2022 2.44 2019 2.42 10 2022 82.99%26 2013-2022 2022 99.89%2022 2.4445 2.4419 100%1.95 79.86%3043.20 12.46%2022 105.71/80.47/-6%-4%-2%0%2%4%6%8%0.005,000.0010,000.0015,000.0020,000.0025,000.0030,000.002013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2024 2009 1210 15 72.53%2021 71.95/11.83%27 100%28 Wind Wind 2022 3.98/2021 37.32%2022 93.7/2021 4.54%29 2019-2022 2019 2020 2021 2022 130 72 75 65/14 7.53 6.35 3.98 700 367 317 258/69.7 79.51 89.63 93.7 2021 75.84%56.6%100%2022 11 28 2025 2022/50%16 47.22/50%0.0050.00100.0005000100001500020000250002004200520062007200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022%0200000400000600000800000100000012000002005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022生活垃圾焚烧无害化处理 能力(吨/日)无害化处理能力:卫生填埋(吨/日)其他无害化方式处理能力（吨/日）2024 2009 1210 16 30 2022%31 2022/1 3-5 2 1 2 32 2018-2023Q3 Wind 2023 3%4%2%2%4%4%4%3%2%1%1%0%2%1%14%5%47%020,00040,00060,00080,000100,000120,000140,000160,000瀚蓝环境伟明环保旺能环境中国天楹绿色动力三峰环境上海环境城发环境圣元环保中科环保军信股份中环环保首创环保高能环境光大环境粤丰环保/2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 600323.SH 15.38 27.05 21.45 57.41 9.33-6.74 34.23 4.24 15.87 10.01-1.46 34.37 603568.SH 50.29 31.73 49.63 34.00 6.23 39.82 46.01 31.67 29.02 22.13 7.67 25.98 002034.SZ-40.47 35.69 17.65 74.75 12.87 3.06 30.44 34.32 26.93 24.10 11.39-4.35 000035.SZ 14.58 906.40 0.00-5.83-67.43-2.89-2.60 229.34-8.33 11.54-83.06 158.90 601330.SH 34.43 66.10 12.95 122.03-9.69-9.67 32.11 52.54 20.98 38.62 6.73-9.27 601827.SH 15.58 27.13 23.72 19.16 2.54 6.52 13.53 7.81 30.24 71.78-8.00 14.47 601200.SH 0.66 41.19 49.93 57.41-11.50 6.49 14.21 6.65 1.48 9.77-24.32 4.10 000885.SZ-57.04 11.58 16.37 65.98 12.86 13.59-3.38 7.15-1.60 56.77 9.70 5.64 300867.SZ 70.39 22.17 13.61 122.08-23.70-9.97 229.31 3.49 39.70 55.27-61.79-17.01 301175.SZ 37.99 13.08 10.59 119.93 5.76-4.75 300.71 45.86 38.08 29.67 22.98 18.43 301109.SZ 72.16 18.35 45.32 86.55-23.56 14.35 54.97 19.64 30.33 5.76 6.13 22.85 300692.SZ 67.78 67.59 28.96 22.67 20.57-33.96 19.25 60.66 62.43 27.99 2.83-33.17 600008.SH 34.14 19.69 0.00 15.65-0.34-7.02 17.55 33.22 53.42 55.58 37.87-60.74 2024 2009 1210 17 1 2022 94.57 2021 21.76%11.05 2021 17.68%2022 3.49 9.40%4.07 51.30%33 2018-2022 34 2018-2022 2022 27.09/2.71/2022 6 7 8 35 2018-2022 36 2022 20-30/0-10/2022 12%74.05 68.90 71.59 77.67 94.57 9.48 7.51 7.98 9.39 11.05 0.0010.0020.0030.0040.0050.0060.0070.0080.0090.00100.002018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2.86 2.64 2.76 3.19 3.49 2.02 1.84 1.79 2.69 4.07 0.000.501.001.502.002.503.003.504.004.502018 2019 2020 2021 2022 25.87 26.12 25.93 24.37 27.09 4.70 4.09 4.45 3.49 2.71 0.005.0010.0015.0020.0025.0030.002018 2019 2020 2021 2022/7.77 3.86 7.12 6.61 7.27 9.40 9.51 9.35 8.54 8.45 8.08 8.61 0.70 0.33 0.70 0.21 0.35 1.17 1.43 1.56 1.36 1.25 0.96 1.02 0.001.002.003.004.005.006.007.008.009.0010.001 月 2 月 3 月 4 月 5 月 6 月 7 月 8 月 9 月 10月 11 月 12 月 2024 2009 1210 18 37 2022 38 2022 2 2022 118.29 2021 13.21%8.42 2021 6.72%2022 1.65 6.45%2.62 69.75%39 2018-2022 40 2018-2022 2022 71.75/3.22/2022 6 7 8 0.005.0010.0015.0020.0025.0030.0035.0040.0045.002018 2019 2020 2021 2022/95.51 91.02 105.31 104.49 118.29 4.68 3.74 7.21 7.89 8.42 0.0020.0040.0060.0080.00100.00120.00140.002018 2019 2020 2021 2022 1.26 2.68 1.40 1.55 1.65 0.69 8.89 25.05 8.66 2.62 0.005.0010.0015.0020.0025.0030.002018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2024 2009 1210 19 41 2018-2022 42 2022 100/2020 2022 43 2022 44 2022 3 2022 2023 1 2023 6 13 7 11 2023 2025 2025 200 1000 200 75.71 33.91 75.37 67.55 71.75 6.73 0.42 0.29 0.91 3.22 0.0010.0020.0030.0040.0050.0060.0070.0080.002018 2019 2020 2021 2022/9.34 5.12 9.73 9.43 7.27 11.49 12.34 10.45 10.50 11.76 9.97 10.89 0.53 0.23 0.61 0.23 0.31 0.83 1.21 1.08 0.96 0.89 0.75 0.78 0.002.004.006.008.0010.0012.0014.001月 2月 3月 4月 5 月 6月 7月 8 月 9月 10月 11 月 12月 0.0020.0040.0060.0080.00100.00120.002018 2019 2020 2021 2022/2024 2009 1210 20 2(2023 2024)8 2023 8 17 2023 2024 1 2 3 4 5 3 2023 8 28 2023 41 11.5%2027 12 31 4 2023 9 3 2023 1 1 2027 12 31 5%985/211 2023 2 3 1&2023 2025 80%2&10 6 2 3 4 2021-2035 1.2024 2009 1210 21 2.2023-2025 2023 10 2022 27 2023 38 40.7%2023 2,469 21.2%6.1%2021-2035 2025 20%80%2023 11 14 15 60 2023 2 15 5 5 5 15+1 2023 UCO 2 2023 UCO 7500-8000/6000/8000 UCO 23Q3 3 2024 2009 1210 22 45 UCO 46 UCO/Wind Wind 47 48/Wind Wind 1 CCER 2024 2+050000100000150000200000250000UCO 出口量（吨）02004006008001000120014001600出口均价（美元/吨）0.00050000.000100000.000150000.000200000.000250000.000300000.000生物柴油 出口量（吨）020040060080010001200140016001800出口均价（美元/吨）2024 2009 1210 23 2023 UCO 24 5 2024 2009 1210 24 2017 2019 2022 2022 2023 2023 2024 2009 1210 25 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-66500808 010-66500821 010-63214682 0755-82828570 0755-83715428 0755-82756804 0755-82871425 0755-82871425 021-20572536 021-20572555 021-20572257-2552 021-20572506 021-20572585 021-20572509 021-20572548 021-20572573 0755-82756805 021-20572559 021-20572559 0755-82756805 021-20572559 玙 021-25072549 2024 2009 1210 26 A 300 500/6 20%6 10%20%6-10%10%6 10%20%3-6 5%3-6-5%5%3-6 5%26 C 3A 1061 A 19 33 12 100033 518034 200120 010-66500801 0755-82027731 021-20572500 010-66500900 0755-82828562 021-20572522
