20231208_国泰君安_医药行业2024年度投资策略：刚需驱动创新向上_58页.pdf
1 2024 DRG 2019-2023 2024 IP PEG 1-1.5 2024 A 2 3 4/01 2021*0.3*5 wind 6 2024 7 2018 5.2018-2021 50%80%50%2022-2024 25%2025 DRG 2023-2024 8 2024 OK IVD IVD IVUS 9-/=848 798+50 95%-65%A 40%50%30%50%30%-50%80%-40%50%100%-60%+200 100%-80%50%40%60%40%2 80%70%50%2 40%2 67%91%469798 730848 700 770 89%;49%A 70%95%20%-40%60%74%98%10 0.6 40%68%70%A B 60%22 4 20 0.6 40%70%30%A 80%16 13 40 0.5 50%90%A B C 8 6 HCG 2 HPV-DNA 100 11 12 13 DRG 14 15 Wind 16 17 IQVIA MAT 12 2022 2023 18 wind SW2021 19 20 2022,WHO,/21 22&23 KOL IVD 24 wind 25 Wind 26 27 PD-1GLP-1HER2EGFR-ADC CMC TIGITB7H3B7H4OX40 28 NMPA 29 Wind 30 Frost&Sullivan Frost&Sullivan 2023 31 12/31 31/12 39%/73%12 39%73%492/14384 346 2023 3-8 491.7 69.7%6 1.4 30%4300+2023 7 2023 4 2023 11 2021 2023 2023 7 2023 7 2023 8 32 Biotech 33 2024 34 Wind 2023 11 9 XBI SPDR(R)S&P(R)Biotech ETF Biotech 35 36 Wind 37*2023 12 Wind 38 2022Q3/2023Q3 2024H1 2023 2024 20%PRP 0%50%100%010202017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023E 2024E yoy 2023E 2024E 2023.11.15 Wind 39 Wind 40 CMH CMH 41 2023H1 OK 42 43+2023-2025 44 ROA 45+Wind 2023 11 30 46 47+Wind 48 2024&PEG=1 Wind 49 PEG Wind 2019 23-25 CAGR wind 50 Wind 2023H2 11.30 180 51 PE ttm 3-5 2024 PEG Wind 2023 12.06 52 Wind,EPS EPS 2023 12 7()(X)2023E 2024E 2025E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2023E 2024E 2025E600276.SH 0.72 0.86 1.03 17%20%20%62 52 43 6160.HK-0.92-0.59-0.03/-121-187-4287BTK Bcl-2 9926.HK 1.91-0.47 0.53/24-96 85 1801.HK-0.63-0.31 0.24/-65-130 169PD-1 GLP-1 1177.HK 0.14 0.16 0.19 6%15%16%24 21 18 BD 1093.HK 0.52 0.59 0.68 1%15%15%13 12 10 688443.SH-2.04-1.35-1.15/-19-28-33 IL17 603087.SH 0.60 1.10 2.00 177%85%81%92 50 28 53 Wind,EPS 2023 12 7()(X)2023E 2024E 2025E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2023E 2024E 2025E000963.SZ 1.68 2.04 2.40 18%21%18%24 19 17 002020.SZ 0.78 0.93 1.07 1%19%15%17 14 12 300015.SZ 0.38 0.49 0.62 40%29%27%42 33 26 301267.SZ 0.88 1.14 1.48 44%30%30%39 30 23 300832.SZ 2.06 2.69 3.49 22%30%30%34 26 20 300396.SZ 1.18 1.60 2.19 24%35%37%27 20 14 6078.HK 1.22 1.71 2.14 27%41%25%32 23 18 54 Wind,EPS 2023 12 7()(X)2023E 2024E 2025E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2023E 2024E 2025E603259.SH 3.49 3.81 4.57 18%9%20%22 20 17 TIDES 002821.SZ 6.90 5.00 6.22-23%-28%25%18 25 20 600161.SH 0.71 0.94 1.28 33%32%36%44 33 24 8 688236.SH 0.72 0.95 1.25-11%32%33%39 29 22 PRP 688212.SH 0.63 0.99 1.53 289%57%55%101 64 42AQ300 AQ300 301017.SZ 0.70 0.91 1.22 23%31%33%30 23 17 55 56 57
