20230720_西部证券_柔性直流海缆行业深度报告：顺应海风深远化潮流柔性直流海缆登上舞台_22页.pdf
1|1 3 12-1.81-3.38-27.83 300-1.87-6.37-10.11 S0800518020002 021-38584220 S0800521100001 18311033802 N 6 20230710-20230716 2023-07-16 2023 7 2023-07-14 6 20220703-20230709 2023-07-08 23 8GW 2022 49.83GW-11%5.16GW-64%22 15.76GW+427%23 68GW+36%8GW+55%1000MW 90km 90km 2000MW 70km H6 H10 H8 400kV 200kV 200kV 535kV 535kV(603606.SH)(600522.SH)600487.SH 220kV+(605222.SH)(600973.SH)(002498.SZ)(002300.SZ)(600869.SH)-31%-26%-21%-16%-11%-6%-1%2022-07 2022-11 2023-03 300 2023 07 20|2023 07 20 2|.4 1.1.4 1.2.6 1.3.7.9 2.1.9 2.2.10.12 3.1.12 3.2.14 3.3.16 603606.SH.17 600522.SH.18 600487.SH.18 605222.SH.19 600973.SH.19 002498.SZ.19 002300.SZ.20 600869.SH.20.21 1.4 2.6 3.7 4.7 5.7 6.11 7.11 8.12 9.15 10.15 11.16 ZXCXwPtOtQnMsMpMnQqPrQ7N8QbRpNqQnPnOiNnNqPiNmOrQbRqRrPvPpOtRwMmOoQ|2023 07 20 3|1.4 2.5 3.5 4 80km.8 5.8 6.9 7 2GW 80km 500kV.9 8.10 9.11 10.13 11 23 23 3.13 12 5 35 kV.15 13.17|2023 07 20 4|1.1 300 1.8 35 2050 5-50 100 5 150km 50 6 1 50-80 80 3.7 2.3 6 1 23 8GW 2021 2022 2022 2022 49.83GW-11%5.16GW-64%22 2022 15.76GW+427%23 68GW+36%8GW+55%|2023 07 20 5|2 2020 2021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E GW 58 56 50 68 77 89 YoY 111%-4%-11%36%13%15%GW 54 41 45 60 66 73 YoY 116%-24%8%34%10%10%GW 4 14 5 8 11 16 YoY 15%277%-64%55%38%45%GW 41 46 40 53 61 70 YoY 8%12%-13%33%15%15%GW 38 42 36 45 50 55 YoY 6%10%-13%24%11%10%GW 3 4 4 8 11 15 YoY 15%36%-11%113%38%36%GW 99 102 90 121 138 159 YoY 54%3%-12%35%14%15%GW 92 83 81 105 116 128 YoY 55%-10%-3%30%10%10%GW 7 19 9 16 22 31 YoY 15%169%-52%80%38%41%GWEC CWEA 2022 50 55 70km 30km 23 3 500kV GW 2 1 mm2 2500 1 2 km 70 km 185|2023 07 20 6|1.2(VSC)(IGBT)(PWM)2|2023 07 20 7|3 1.3 XLPE(PE)XLPE(PE)4 5 1 500kV 2GW 0.7GW 2GW 1 3 2 1 2 1 1|2023 07 20 8|3 4 80km 500kV 330kV 220kV GW 2 0.7 0.5 0.2 GW 2 2 2 2 1 3 4 10 2 1 1 1 2 3 4 10 1 3 3 3 mm2 2500 2400 2400 1900 km 80 80 80 80 km 160 240 320 800 5|2023 07 20 9|2.1 4 3050%220kV 5/330kV 220kV 2030%500kV 9.5/220kV 1012/1.61.7/500kV 500kV 330kV 220kV 313.55/309.77/282.44/240.49 500kV 330kV 220kV 6 500kV 330kV 220kV/km 22 21 21 16.6 6.9 6.9 6.9 6.9/km 151 145 145 115/km 9.5 10 6.3 5 5 5 5 5/km 47.6 50 31.3 25/km 20 20 15 12 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7/km 34 34 25.5 20.4/km 0 0.1 0.1 0.1 313.55 309.77 282.44 240.49 80km 500kV 1 2 160km 5 500kV 3 3 240km 7.4 7 2GW 80km 500kV km 80 80 km 160 240/km 22 21 6.9 6.9/km 151 145 24229 34882|2023 07 20 10|/km 9.5 10 5 5/km 47.6 50 7619 12000/km 20 20 1.7 1.7/km 34 34 5440 8160/km 0 0.1 0 24/km 80 80 12,800 19,200 50168 74346 313.55 309.77 2023 90-235km 900-2000MW 8/km/MW 1 DolWin6 2023 90 900 2 Doggerbank A 2023 131 1200 3 2024 92.5 2000 4 DolWin5 2024 135 900 5 BorWin5 2025 230 900 6 Doggerbank B 2024 131 1200 7 Doggerbank C 2025 196 1200 8 BorWin6 2027 235 980 9 Balwin1 2029/2000 10 Balwin2 2029/2000 11 Balwin3 2030/2000 2.2 2.2|2023 07 20 11|6 7 66kV 1000MW 100km 28 66.67%9/|2023 07 20 12|/320kV 1000MW 18 42.86%320kV 1000MW 10 23.81%320kV 2 1 1800mm2 100km 14 33.33%-42-500MW 100km 1000MW 90km 90km 2000MW 70km 8 3.1 H6 H10 H8 H6 H10 400MW H8 300MW 50-60 9-22 400 2 99|2023 07 20 13|15.11 10 2011 4MW 10kV 160kV 2013 200MW 160kV 2014 400MW 200kV 2021 1100MW 400kV 23 500kV 23 13GW 23 220kV 72%500kV 71 70 2 1000MW 1 500kV 500 2000 11 23 23 3(MW)2000 500kV 1000 500kV 1000 500kV PB 300 220kV 300 220kV BW 510 220kV U2 600 220kV BDB6#300 220kV A 700 220kV CZ2 1200 220kV CZ7 1503.5 220kV 500 220kV 400 220kV 2022 1000 220kV 2021 1650 330kV 250 220kV 13213.5 21 22|2023 07 20 14|23 21 28km 22 31km 25 500kV 10%330kV 500kV 40%220kV 50%3.2 2 2 6 MMC,MMC 2|2023 07 20 15|9 10 12 535 kV/mm 202/(kg m-1)103.8/MN 690/(kN m2)313.5/(kN m2)31/kN 864/kN 650/m 4.5 535 kV|2023 07 20 16|11 500kV 3.3 220kV 500kV 500KV 500KV EPC 500KV 500KV 500KV 500KV 500kV 500kV 200kV 200kV H6 H10 H8 400kV 160kV 200kV 320kV 535kV 535kV 500kV 500kV 220kV 500MW 220KV 500kV 220kV 200KV 200kV|2023 07 20 17|220KV 330kV BW 220KV 13 500KV 535kV 160KV 200KV 320KV 400KV 500KV 500KV EPC 330KV 500KV 535kV 535KV 200KV 160KV EPC 500KV 500KV 500KV 500KV 6 2 220KV 500KV 535kV 500KV 220KV V 500MW 220KV 500KV 500MW 220KV 220KV 200KV 200kV 220KV 330KV BW 220KV Wind 603606.SH 2022 2022 70.09 39.77 3.59%32%57%11%500kV 535kV 500kV 2023 3 7 91.30 57.50 21.67 12.13 220 50%20 500KV 23 23 200km 250km 150km 600km/|2023 07 20 18|600522.SH 2022 402.71 32.14 30.49%/22.69%/18.18%/12.47%/8.17%22 91.38+22.26%24.12%-4.16pct 22 ChatGPT AI NPO CPO 22 32.92+56.86%10.97%+1.65pct 22 80MW/200MWh 20MW/20MWh 30 23 3GWh Orsted Wind Power A/S Baltica 2 B 275kV 12.09 G7 2030 150GW 275kV 600487.SH 2022 464.64+12.58%/41.81%/17.42%/16.27%/6.42%/10.88%/7.20%500kV 535kV 330kV/220kV/66kV/500kV 40 2023 15 Repeater Branching Units|2023 07 20 19|j-fiber GmbH 100%605222.SH 2022 6 30 146 5 2022 206.44+9.36%65.10%/32.07%1.8GW 300MW 800MW 2022 1.8GW 25 22.5GW 20 2023 3 BW 220kV 220KV 220kV 23 1.8GW 900MW 400MW 800MW 600973.SH 2022 2022 414.82-3.51%0.65/58.69%/38.48%/1.05%/1.78%3 5 500KV 500KV 23 3 220kV 4 220kV 5 220kV 23 220KV 002498.SZ|2023 07 20 20|2022 98.42+9.58%/74.45%/9.86%/4.18%/2.03%/1.82%500kV 22 4 500kV 500kV 500KV 23 5 21 300MW 220kV 450MW 5 2.0 70kw 002300.SZ 2022 131.03+16.74%/49.58%/49.49%/0.93%22 7 TVR125-V0 H1Z2Z2-K 2 107 7 98 2 220KV 500KV 23 5 23 100km 10-35kV XLPE 66-220kV XLPE 1200km 2024 500KV 600869.SH 2022 216.8+3.87%|2023 07 20 21|90.83%/2.28%/6.62%VESTAS GE SiemensGamesa Nordex 48%+18650-3800mAh 21700-5500mAh 300Wh/kg 6GWh 1GWh 2019 2021 1.5 3 2023 2 2024 1 2 3|2023 07 20 22|6-12 10%6-12-10%10%6-12 10%6-12 20%6-12 5%20%6-12-5%5%6-12 5%6-12 A 300 500 276 12 28 513 6008 10C 021-38584209/QQ BBS 91610000719782242D
