20231120_银河证券_卫星通信行业系列报告：卫星互联网建设重要性提升需求增长催化行业边际改善_22页.pdf
5G-6G 5G-5.5G-6G 6G LEO MEO GEO 2022 63%LEO ITU 1.3 2034 2020 002402 300136 300762 301306 002115 300627 002465 T abl e _ R es earch-20%0%20%40%60%300.LEO.3.5.6 6G.7.8.10.10+.13.WUDWxOnQnOqRsMoNmRpQnM9PcM6MmOmMsQnOlOmNmNjMnPoPbRqRtOvPsPrMNZqMqQ ToC/100%2G-5G 20%6%5G 6076827237587948320.00%5.00%10.00%15.00%500 600 700 800 900 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023E YoY10.85%4.75%6.76%0.00%2.00%4.00%6.00%8.00%10.00%12.00%0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 2022 YoY LEO MEO GEO GEO MEO LEO GEO 35786 3-4 500-600ms MEO 2000-36000 6 27-500 LEO 2-27 LEO GSO IGSO SSO HAPS 5G 10-15 4G 10ms 5G 1ms LEO LEO GEO LEO GEO LEO MEO GEO OneWeb StarLink 2018-2022 CAGR 67.52%2022 YoY 58.85%LEO 2018-2022 CAGR 36.78%2018-2022 CAGR 15.42%2022 84%54 2021 57 LEO 50km 3002000 km 17.5 LEO 2023.9 StarLink 3803 7903 48.12%OneWeb 630 56.09%2022 63%LEO 020004000600080002018 2019 2020 2021 2022/2018-2022 CAGR 67.52%2022 YoY 58.85%LEO,84%/20 70 20 80 2005 1985 1994 2020 13.52%16.03%16.39%6.33%-4.20%6.30%-1.53%17.57%-21.23%5.88%1.17%-30.00%-20.00%-10.00%0.00%10.00%20.00%0 200 400 600 800 2021 2022 YoY 6G 2023 8 Mate60/Pro S22 Ultra Mate60/Pro Mate50 2023 10 SpaceX DirecttoCell 2024 2025 Data IoT LTE 6G 6G 5G URLLC eMBB mMTC 6G 6G 5G 6G 5G 4G 5G GW 12992 6G 4G/5G 6G 6G+6G 2022 2810 2022 2.5 10 143 StarLink StarLink StarLink1.5 306 1250 E TT&C 10 LEO V1.5 StarLink OISL RF StarLink O3b OneWeb GlobalStar ITU 7 90 2 10%5 50%7 GW 2020 12992 2027 2024 3000 2000 5.62%Platform/Bus Payload GNC 70%30%T/R 30%70%75%50%T/R 50%T/R T/R 13/55 1)(2)CCD(Charge-coupled Device)10(3)(4),(Payload Data)3 1 2 ASIC FPGA ICO S 163 3 T/R G60 StarLink V2.0 Mini 4 2 T/R 70%-80%T/R LEO LEO SpaceX 9 68%002402 300762 300136 301306 002115 300627 002465 T/R 1 3Q23 54.87 24.13%3.34 0.82%75.39%2 47.22%2024 T/R+&3 3Q23 0.2pct 0.3pct 2.8pct 41.75%1 3Q23 2.16 44.05%-0.63 170.28%2023-40-2002040600 20 40 60 80 2019 2020 2021 2022 3Q23 YoY%YoY%202530354045 2 4G 5G 1 3Q23 1.86 6.32%-0.16 134.57%2-200-150-100-50050100(2)0 2 4 6 8 2019 2020 2021 2022 3Q23 YoY%YoY%020406080100120140160180-200-1000100200(1)0 1 2 3 4 2019 2020 2021 2022 3Q23 YoY%YoY%3540455055606570+1+5G 2023 99.42 34.00%0.95 7.61%2 VSAT 7*24 3+AI 1H23 7571 10 AI 1+3Q23 55.94 9.45%5.17 13.97%+2023-5000-4000-3000-2000-100001000(50)0 50 100 150 2019 2020 2021 2022 3Q23 YoY%YoY%(10)0102030405060 2 2022 3 LCP LCP LCP FCCL UL Tier1 MLCC UWB/RTK+1 RTK RTK 2+3 3Q23 18.25 25.94%2.83 28.11%31.79%-60-40-20020400 20 40 60 80 100 2019 2020 2021 2022 3Q23 YoY%YoY%202530354045 1 RTK 2023 40.35 8.79%3.59 9.30%2 3+5G+5G 02040600 5 10 15 20 25 2019 2020 2021 2022 3Q23 YoY%YoY%30354045505560-20-1001020300 20 40 60 2019 2020 2021 2022 3Q23 YoY%YoY%2025303540455055 1 2 3 .“”.&2022 8 6 2018/2019 II-2020 Wind 2022 Choice 6-12 300 20%6-12 300 20%嫚
