1 请参阅附注免责声明XVDWzQtOtQoPoQpMtOoRnMbRbP8OpNqQpNsReRpOmNfQsQsOaQnMqMNZsQqOvPmMvM2 请参阅附注免责声明3 请参阅附注免责声明4 请参阅附注免责声明 2023 2023 5 4 28 11 23300-0.3%6.7%11 23-1.4%32 13-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%2023-1-1 2023-3-1 2023-5-1 2023-7-1 2023-9-1 2023-11-1SW 300 Wind29%26%16%12%9%5%5%5%4%2%0%-1%-1%-2%-2%-3%-3%-3%-6%-8%-9%-10%-11%-11%-12%-13%-17%-17%-18%-23%-25%-27%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%300 5 请参阅附注免责声明Wind-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%2023/1/1 2023/2/1 2023/3/1 2023/4/1 2023/5/1 2023/6/1 2023/7/1 2023/8/1 2023/9/1 2023/10/1 2023/11/1SW SW SW SW 300 6 请参阅附注免责声明 2023 2023 2023 11 22 PB 1.601.46 2017 24%1.141.31 2023 11 22 PB 1.0/2.3/1.6/1.2 201735%/69%/19%/25%WindWind0.51.52.53.54.55.56.52017/1/1 2018/1/1 2019/1/1 2020/1/1 2021/1/1 2022/1/1 2023/1/1SW PB SW PB SW PB SW PB0.00.51.01.52.02.53.02017/1/1 2018/1/1 2019/1/1 2020/1/1 2021/1/1 2022/1/1 2023/1/1SW PB SW PB/300PB7 请参阅附注免责声明 SW-12SWSWSW SWSW=SW-AWind020040060080010001200140016001800-100%0%100%200%300%400%500%SW%Q5500/020040060080010001200140016001800-500%-400%-300%-200%-100%0%100%200%SW%Q5500/Wind8 请参阅附注免责声明 202410 EPRWindERP=1/PE TTM-10 A0.0%1.0%2.0%3.0%4.0%5.0%2.0%2.5%3.0%3.5%4.0%4.5%2017-012017-032017-052017-072017-092017-112018-012018-032018-052018-072018-092018-112019-012019-032019-052019-072019-092019-112020-012020-032020-052020-072020-092020-112021-012021-032021-052021-072021-092021-112022-012022-032022-052022-072022-092022-112023-012023-032023-052023-072023-092023-1110%ERP%9 请参阅附注免责声明10 请参阅附注免责声明 20232024 1420232023 6%2023 6.4%2024202420242024 4.3%5.2%2024 142023 202411 请参阅附注免责声明 2025 16.320232025 2.9 202320250.8 0.81 0.790.56 0.65 0.09 0.0%0.093.68 3.76 0.08 10.0%40.0%0.070.053.65 5.30 1.65 95.0%0.083.93 8.00 4.07 100.0%0.000.59 1.16 0.57 0.0%0.5712 请参阅附注免责声明Wind2021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E83128 86372 91,554 96,132 100,458%10.5%3.9%6.0%5.0%4.5%83768 86941 92,157 96,765 101,12056463 57307 59,263 59,791 61,2894075 4178 4,339 4,578 4,88113401 13550 14,505 15,329 15,6776556 7624 8,397 9,550 10,4113270 4276 5,647 7,512 8,8563 6 6 6 6%9.1%1.5%3.4%0.9%2.5%11.3%2.5%3.9%5.5%6.6%-1.1%1.1%7.0%5.7%2.3%40.5%16.3%10.1%13.7%9.0%25.2%30.8%32.1%33.0%17.9%-6.7%114.3%0.0%0.0%0.0%23.77 25.64 28.62 31.25 34.107.9%7.8%11.6%9.2%9.1%12.97 13.32 13.92 14.72 15.720.53 0.56 0.57 0.61 0.653.91 4.14 4.18 4.27 4.383.28 3.65 4.30 4.80 5.303.07 3.93 5.60 6.80 8.000.01 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.0513 请参阅附注免责声明 2023 13Q23 56GW 20172020 2021+18.3%2022+28.4%2023 19 635+16.2%05101520253035401Q21 2Q21 3Q21 4Q21 1Q22 2Q22 3Q22 4Q22 1Q23 2Q23 3Q23 GW 0%2%4%6%8%10%-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023%14 请参阅附注免责声明 2022 2 1 5500570770/2-2023 11 2024 180%100%280%90%ppts/(%)%ppts/(%)88.40%26.87 0.51 18.04%88.53%-0.31 0.510 0.52%82.03%21.11 0.519 20.70%-0.518 0.28%93.16%30.06 0.439 22.63%93.50%1.46 0.438 0.67%80.88%14.71 0.461 18.37%83.97%-0.38 0.468 1.91%80.55%46.05 0.511 15.35%77.94%-2.12 0.525 3.75%96.29%34.18 0.367 18.70%97.14%0.81 0.347-5.76%15 请参阅附注免责声明16 请参阅附注免责声明2023 2023 5 2023 9 2023 2023202317 请参阅附注免责声明SO18 请参阅附注免责声明 2023 11 12 319 请参阅附注免责声明20 请参阅附注免责声明0.000.010.020.030.040.050.06050100150200250300/=/2022“”330/20242025 30%50%20221365 2022 9.3 1.47%2022102 0.13%21 请参阅附注免责声明100%0.37/=-2022 11.2 2022 4594100%0.37/1 20%1365 2 1 ppts 19022 请参阅附注免责声明 12“”“”0.015/23 请参阅附注免责声明 20“-”121040004200440046004800500052002013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 24 请参阅附注免责声明WindWind=(-)/-50%0%50%100%150%200%250%300%-200-150-100-500501001502002011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023%-100%0%100%200%300%400%-200-150-100-500501002011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%-200-10001002003004002011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%-200-150-100-500501001502016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023%25 请参阅附注免责声明 12 ROE ROE DDM26 请参阅附注免责声明ROE ROE ROEROE PB A ROE20032021 ROE 13.9%2010 A PB ROE2010 ROE 20162019 ROEWind2010 ROE0%4%8%12%16%20%2003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021ROE 0.00.51.01.52.02.520042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023 PB 2010WindPB=PB/A PB27 请参阅附注免责声明Wind2012 ROE 2012-3%0%3%6%9%12%15%18%200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021SW ROE 0.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.520042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023SW WindPB=SW PB/A PBROE ROE ROE2012 ROE 201220162010 ROE 0.78 20042010 1.25 201328 请参阅附注免责声明Wind2010 ROE 2010WindPB=SW PB/A PB-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021SW ROE 0.00.40.81.21.62.020042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023SW 20042010 PB 0.78 2013 PB 1.25 ROE ROE ROE2012 ROE 201220162010 ROE 0.78 20042010 1.25 201329 请参阅附注免责声明330/20242025 100/20242025 165/1 2330 请参阅附注免责声明 1Q22 7 ROA ROA=-/7 ROA 7 ROA ROA=-/PB MRQ 2023 11 10Wind A 0.51.01.52.02.5-0.5%0.0%0.5%1.0%1.5%2.0%7 ROA%PB MRQ31 请参阅附注免责声明32 请参阅附注免责声明SW ROE13Q23 ROE 2022/5.9%/-5.6%2023 9 2023 3Q23 15.4%+8.8 ppts/+2.1 ppts 10.3%+8.8 ppts/+2.7ppts ROE 3.6%+3.2ppts/+1.1 pptsWind Wind20230300600900120015001800 Q5500/-10%-8%-6%-4%-2%0%2%4%6%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%ROE%33 请参阅附注免责声明2016 20212022 2020Wind0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%20032004200520062007200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022%SW%34 请参阅附注免责声明Wind0.00.20.40.60.81.01.20.01.02.03.04.05.06.020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023SW PB SW PB/A PB 35 请参阅附注免责声明2021 ROE 122023 10 202236 请参阅附注免责声明Wind10Wind20212025 70%20132022 20172022 3.5%4.5%102022 4.1%10 1.3 ppts37 请参阅附注免责声明Wind20162022Wind 13Q23 94.3+204%2016 1 2023 940 GW 2.6 GW 15 GW2 3Q23 763+8.8%202338 请参阅附注免责声明2023 65 6 2*1211 22*1251 2 2*129 CAP10000246810121416 2021 3 2021 10203039 请参阅附注免责声明 2024 2028 123Q231 2 1 2()2024 1 2019.10 1212025 2 2020.9 12120267 VVER-1200 2021.5 1272021.7 1320273 VVER-1200 2021.7 1278 VVER-1200 2022.2 1273 CAP1000 2022.6 1254 VVER-1200 2022.8 12720284 CAP1000 2023.3 1251 CAP1000 2023.11 1292029 2 CAP1000-1291271()2024 4 2016.12 1182025 1 2019.12 1202026 2 2020.10 1202026 1 2020.12 1002027 5 2022.9 1202027 2 2021.12 1002028 6 2023.8 1207983Q2340 请参阅附注免责声明 2023 9/97.3%/98.2%8-0.5/-0.6 ppts 2023 10/151/103-50/-692%93%94%95%96%97%98%99%100%2021-052021-072021-092021-112022-012022-032022-052022-072022-092022-112023-012023-032023-052023-072023-09 201 214 251 215 156 179 122 127 151 050100150200250300M12 M3 M4 M5 M6 M7 M8 M9 M10 M11 M122019 2020 2021 2022 202391 121 112 120 123 122 127 110 103 020406080100120140M12 M3 M4 M5 M6 M7 M8 M9 M10 M11 M122019 2020 2021 2022 202341 请参阅附注免责声明20 2250 1%1550/4000/2h/20%1.5/30%3.5%敏 感 性 分析 弃电率（%）7.8%0.0%2.5%5.0%7.5%10.0%12.5%15.0%17.5%20.0%上网电价较基准价变动比例（%）0%10.6%9.9%9.2%8.5%7.8%7.1%6.4%5.7%5.0%-5%9.2%8.5%7.8%7.2%6.5%5.9%5.2%4.6%3.9%-10%7.8%7.1%6.5%5.9%5.3%4.7%4.1%3.4%2.8%-15%6.4%5.8%5.2%4.6%4.1%3.5%2.9%2.3%1.7%-20%5.0%4.5%3.9%3.4%2.8%2.3%1.7%1.2%0.6%-25%3.6%3.1%2.6%2.1%1.6%1.1%0.5%0.0%-0.5%-30%2.3%1.8%1.3%0.8%0.3%-0.2%-0.6%-1.1%-1.6%20 1250 1%1000/2000/2h/20%1.5/30%3.5%敏 感 性 分析 弃电率（%）6.6%0.0%2.5%5.0%7.5%10.0%12.5%15.0%17.5%20.0%上网电价较基准价变动比例（%）0%9.2%8.5%7.8%7.2%6.5%5.9%5.2%4.6%3.9%-5%7.8%7.2%6.6%6.0%5.3%4.7%4.1%3.5%2.9%-10%6.5%5.9%5.3%4.7%4.2%3.6%3.0%2.4%1.8%-15%5.2%4.7%4.1%3.5%3.0%2.4%1.9%1.3%0.8%-20%3.9%3.4%2.9%2.3%1.8%1.3%0.8%0.2%-0.3%-25%2.6%2.1%1.6%1.1%0.6%0.1%-0.4%-0.9%-1.4%-30%1.3%0.8%0.4%-0.1%-0.6%-1.1%-1.5%-2.0%-2.5%2.5 ppts IRR 0.50.7 ppts5%IRR 1.11.4 ppts IRR 1.01.3 ppts42 请参阅附注免责声明43 请参阅附注免责声明1 H234600795.SH 3.88 0.16 0.39 0.51 24 10 8600011.SH 7.52-0.47 0.83 0.86/9 91071.HK H 2.91 0.00 0.52 0.61/6 5600900.SH 22.62 0.87 1.43 1.55 26 16 15600674.SH 14.05 0.79 1.08 1.13 18 13 12601985.SH 7.01 0.48 0.56 0.64 15 13 11003816.SZ 2.94 0.20 0.23 0.25 15 13 12002053.SZ 9.79 0.32 0.60 0.99 31 16 10Wind 2023 11 23H 2023 11 23 0.91344 请参阅附注免责声明45 请参阅附注免责声明46