20231206_国泰君安_奢侈品行业龙头业绩跟踪：海外美奢龙头韧性仍显_21页.pdf
2010203040YBYwPmRpMoPrPnOqNtMoPbRbP7NtRoOtRoNfQpOpNlOrRpQbRpPwPwMpNmNNZmPtM323Q3 23Q3 2021-2022 2023Q3 23Q3/FY2018 FY2019 FY2020 FY2021 FY2022 FY2023 2023Q1 2023Q2 2023Q3 LVMH 10%15%-17%44%23%17%17%9%8%15%-7%41%29%23%28%16%26%16%-18%35%15%1%3%-9%3%27%2%-8%27%19%22%19%5%6%-3%-32%31%3%11%18%4%11%-6%15%18%13%14%11%16%9%-4%13%9%-10%-8%4%-11%9%3%-19%10%6%7%10%-2%7%2%-11%16%20%0%-3%-3%5%-8%4%21%13%-2%19%-2%3%0%-9%-1%30%18%10%-35%-2%3%-30%10%12%8%5%-1%-1%8%-5%12%28%18%7%3%0%10%-8%23%19%20%14%24%40118%13%-34%156%17%30%15%9%-9%76%38%36%-50%0%50%100%150%200%0500010000150002017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023H1LVMH LVMHyoy yoy YOY10%15%-17%44%23%17%13%1%8%15%-7%41%29%22%22%7%26%16%-18%35%15%2%2%-13%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%020000400006000080000100000LVMH LVMHyoy yoy YOY LVMH 2020 2022-2023H1 LVMH23H1 30%23Q3 Q3 16%LVMH Q3 9%2023H1 LVMH 50123 2021-2022 23Q3 LVMH Q3 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023Q1 2023Q2 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222-4%107%13%154 210 18%-28%-31%15 104-51%-23%-50%8665-15%32%8%2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023Q12023Q22023Q3-5%0%-2%0%10%0%-5%-16%2%9%-18%-23%6%10%12%-9%0%2%-8%-13%-13%18%8%11%1%1%-30%-31%49%-11%-11%8%4%8%4%19%65%-3%2%-8%4%18%-6%23%-10%21%34%-6%8%-13%13%29%0%-1%2%4%8%-0%4%-8%9%9%-9%-9%-13%20%9%-3%28%-46%74%87%37%-8%-12%-9%9%6%30%14%27%3%21%0%9%-15%28%28%59%4%34%-20%-19%-1%14%-7%17%0%24%,7%17%-1%15%9%-1%37%30%1502LVMH 2017-2021+LVMH 2022Q2 LVMH 0.001.002.003.004.005.00LVMH CAC400.000.200.400.600.801.001.201.401.60-DAX0.000.501.001.502.00 SMI 1602 2017-2021 2017-2020 2022 2023 22 0.000.200.400.600.801.001.201.401.60 100 0.000.501.001.502.002.503.003.504.00 5000.000.200.400.600.801.001.201.401.601.80 2251702 Pettm 35-40 x PEttm 35x 25-30 x LVMH PEttm 20 x PE 25x Q3 Pettm 35-40 x wind LVMH-2018/12/31 18%21%17%-17%-17%22%10%39%15%21%-3%-13%3%2%2019/12/31 39%13%23%-2%-29%8%32%-5%3%-13%-17%-11%-22%40%2020/12/31 31%39%10%6%-8%27%13%-21%5%6%46%21%1%23%2021/12/31 15%47%-7%54%-3%5%14%-15%22%6%7%1%7%-15%2022/12/31 5%4%-22%4%13%-10%-12%11%-10%-2%-16%3%7%4%2023/10/31-6%16%-24%-8%-7%14%-57%-44%-13%-15%-38%-16%-1%33%PE-ttmLVMH-2017/12/31 21.12 36.35 24.68 22.32 25.03 24.78 28.50 91.22 19.49 19.03 37.62 4.51 4.79 29.852018/12/31 19.16 34.80 17.98 11.14 14.53 26.96 24.89 43.04 19.85 23.56 31.14 4.37 5.00 17.172019/12/31 27.72 44.32 31.21 25.62 16.20 37.55 27.67 40.86 23.58 26.23 33.02 15.26 7.84 38.822020/12/31 52.74 65.21 32.43 172.17 475.10 46.87 56.91-59.56 140.92 82.16 11.95 10.56 77.452021/12/31 29.61 64.86 26.57 26.60 26.54 49.18 50.24 53.51 29.12 30.70 48.25 5.80 4.04 50.212022/12/31 24.05 44.57 15.82 21.97 16.55 30.88 47.06 75.25 22.27 19.19 25.81 4.19 2.82 39.232023/10/31 21.07 46.55 13.76 15.92 12.25 36.33 58.65 74.13 19.02 18.69 18.52 3.91 5.08 44.161803 wind 20231204 X 2023E 2024E 2025E 2023E 2024E 2025E600519.SH 1,750.7 58.67 69.8 82.06 30 25 21 000858.SZ 145.9 7.83 8.73 9.74 19 17 15 002304.SZ 114.8 7.02 8.02 9.17 16 14 13 000568.SZ 198.4 8.97 10.98 13.34 22 18 15 600809.SH 229.0 8.36 10.37 12.79 27 22 18 000596.SZ 244.1 8.16 10.11 12.28 30 24 20 603369.SH 51.8 2.56 3.19 3.81 20 16 14 603198.SH 71.8 2.84 3.64 4.55 25 20 16 603919.SH 25.3 0.73 1.03 1.32 35 24 19 603605.SH 98.492.86 3.52 4.2534 28 23 600223.SH 9.930.39 0.39 0.4525 25 222367.HK 32.431.34 1.73 2.1824 19 15 2145.HK 19.550.85 1.10 1.3823 18 14191 2 3 20 E-mail:03THANKS FORLISTENING
