1 2 3 4 4-60-40-200204060800100002000030000400002018-022018-072018-122019-052019-102020-032020-082021-012021-062021-112022-042022-092023-022023-07:%:%1 234数据来源：wind，国泰君安证券研究-60-40-200204060800500010000150002000025000300002018-022018-072018-122019-052019-102020-032020-082021-012021-062021-112022-042022-092023-022023-07%-40-200204060050001000015000200002018-022018-072018-122019-052019-102020-032020-082021-012021-062021-112022-042022-092023-022023-07%,%,-100-50050100010,00020,00030,00040,0002018-022018-072018-122019-052019-102020-032020-082021-012021-062021-112022-042022-092023-022023-07%5 5 6 6-500501001502002502016-022016-062016-102017-022017-062017-102018-022018-062018-102019-022019-062019-102020-022020-062020-102021-022021-062021-102022-022022-062022-102023-022023-06:%-20-100102030402016-012016-052016-092017-012017-052017-092018-012018-052018-092019-012019-052019-092020-012020-052020-092021-012021-052021-092022-012022-052022-092023-012023-052023-09工业增加值:累计同比（%）7 7 8 8 9 9-100010020030040005000100001500020000250002018-022018-072018-122019-052019-102020-032020-082021-012021-062021-112022-042022-092023-022023-07:%10 10 11 11 12 12 13 13 14 14 万吨 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023E 2023E 同比 2024E 2024E 同比 26,670 27,300 25,200 25,200 27,090 30,422 32,841 32,647 30,747 21,363 17,753-16.90%16,155-9.00%11,430 11,700 10,800 10,800 11,610 12,051 12,509 12,622 12,672 13,863 14,557 5.00%15,576 7.00%13,300 14,000 12,900 12,800 13,600 14,280 14,708 15,297 15,450 14,986 14,537-3.00%14,682 1.00%4,700 5,000 5,000 5,400 5,800 5,580 5,133 5,061 5,304 5,485 6,033 10.00%6,335 5.00%3,100 3,200 3,200 3,200 3,300 3,366 3,491 3,508 3,645 3,849 4,157 8.00%4,365 5.00%1,300 1,300 1,400 1,200 1,400 1,134 1,204 1,264 1,302 1,242 1,490 20.00%1,565 5.00%1,000 1,100 1,100 1,100 1,200 1,280 1,349 1,378 1,430 1,462 1,609 10.00%1,689 5.00%500 500 500 500 500 475 474 464 455 463 602 30.00%633 5.00%500 600 600 400 600 661 421 473 997 629 377-40.00%340-10.00%10,319 9,150 9,110 10,131 11,532 17,707 22,275 30,208 27,046 32,454 32,454 0.00%32,454 0.00%总内需 72,819 73,850 69,810 70,731 76,632 86,955 94,405 102,922 99,048 95,797 93,569-2.33%93,792 0.24%5,085 8,420 10,572 10,106 6,541 5,872 5,229 3,555 4,231 5,503 8,255 50.00%9,080 10.00%总需求 77,904 82,270 80,382 80,837 83,173 92,826 99,634 106,477 103,279 101,300 101,824 0.52%102,872 1.03%15 16 16 产能利用率下 行 产能利用率大幅提升 17 17 18 18 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023E 2024E77,904 82,270 80,382 80,837 83,173 92,826 99,634 106,477 103,279 101,300 101,824 102,872 8.72%5.60%-2.29%0.57%2.89%11.61%7.33%6.87%-3.00%-1.92%0.52%1.03%77,904 82,270 80,382 80,837 83,173 92,826 99,634 106,477 103,279 101,300 101,300 101,300 8.72%5.60%-2.29%0.57%2.89%11.61%7.33%6.87%-3.00%-1.92%0.00%0.00%-523-1572 19 20 20 21 22 22 23 23 24 25 25 26 26 2019 增速 2020 增速 2021 增速 2022 增速 2023E 增速 2024E 增速 80849 3.67%88898 9.95%86857-2.30%86383-0.55%87679 1.50%88556 1.00%149802 3.67%164714 9.95%160932-2.30%160055-0.55%162455 1.50%164080 1.00%47266-1.79%43138-8.73%48271 11.90%43756-9.35%43972 0.49%44330 0.81%87577-1.79%79928-8.73%89438 11.90%81074-9.35%81474 0.49%82137 0.81%7416 2.13%6778-8.60%7763 14.52%7986 2.88%8945 12.00%9839 10.00%13740 2.13%12559-8.60%14383 14.52%14797 2.88%16573 12.00%18230 10.00%7491-3.13%6160-17.76%7034 14.19%6415-8.81%6222-3.00%6222 0.00%13879-3.13%11414-17.76%13034 14.19%11885-8.81%11529-3.00%11529 0.00%5108-1.35%5191 1.63%5378 3.60%5161-4.03%5315 3.00%5422 2.00%9463-1.35%9618 1.63%9964 3.60%9562-4.03%9849 3.00%10046 2.00%2230-7.30%1832-17.85%2225 21.43%2100-5.60%2058-2.00%2058 0.00%4132-7.30%3394-17.85%4122 21.43%3891-5.60%3813-2.00%3813 0.00%全球铁矿需求 237378 1.59%244642 3.06%250370 2.34%241128-3.69%243929 1.16%246217 0.94%103408-6.71%104901 1.44%108248 3.19%107246-0.93%108750 1.40%110500 1.61%30198-21.49%30039-0.53%31493 4.84%30779-2.26%31500 2.34%31800 0.95%RIO TINTO 28119-3.30%28593 1.69%27656-3.28%28325 2.42%32750 15.62%32800 0.15%BHP 24011-0.17%25519 6.28%25450-0.27%25582 0.52%25500-0.32%25500 0.00%FMG 21080 9.51%20750-1.57%23650 13.98%22560-4.61%19000-15.78%20400 7.37%134187 7.06%127409-5.05%139440 9.44%146412 5.00%150805 3.00%153821 2.00%全球铁矿供给 237595 0.60%232310-2.22%247689 6.62%253658 2.41%259555 2.32%264321 1.84%供 给-需 求 216-12332-2681 12530 15626 18104铁矿供需平衡表（万吨）27 27 020040060080010001200140016002011-072012-032012-112013-072014-032014-112015-072016-032016-112017-072018-032018-112019-072020-032020-112021-072022-032022-112023-07 02004002011-032011-102012-052012-122013-072014-022014-092015-042015-112016-062017-012017-082018-032018-102019-052019-122020-072021-022021-092022-042022-112023-06 28 28 29 30 30 31 31/HRB400/Q235B/61.5%/6-8mm(/)(/)2013 3,555 3,775 932 1,603 2,352 228 2482014 3,048 3,356 657 1,262 1,983 367 4752015 2,135 2,307 412 993 1,293 51 222016 2,412 2,826 444 1,317 1,317 111 3262017 3,807 3,862 542 2,055 1,674 945 8002018 4,119 4,178 502 2,370 2,313 1100 9592019 3,882 3,849 699 2,168 2,518 628 3952020 3,716 3,903 796 2,122 2,538 328 3142021 5,046 5,409 1,100 3,096 3,357 603 7662022 4,397 4,479 837 3,204 3,057 351 2322023E3910 4075 883 2409 2796213 178 2024E 4223 4401 971 2602 2964 271 250 32 33 33 0.01.02.03.04.05.06.02000-122001-072002-022002-092003-042003-112004-062005-012005-082006-032006-102007-052007-122008-072009-022009-092010-042010-112011-062012-012012-082013-032013-102014-052014-122015-072016-022016-092017-042017-112018-062019-012019-082020-032020-102021-052021-122022-072023-022023-09申万行业指数:市净率:钢铁 宝钢股份(600019):市净率PB1(/)34 35 35()20231120()(X)2022 2023E 2024E 2022 2023E 2024E000932.SZ 5.68 0.77 0.86 0.93 7.38 6.60 6.11600019.SH 6.18 0.50 0.57 0.63 12.36 10.84 9.81000959.SZ 3.71 0.16 0.24 0.32 23.19 15.46 11.59600507.SH 4.88 0.38 0.43 0.50 12.84 11.35 9.76600782.SH 3.90 0.39 0.49 0.59 10.00 7.96 6.61000778.SZ 3.94 0.48 0.50 0.54 8.21 7.88 7.30002443.SZ 7.30 0.60 0.74 0.90 12.17 9.86 8.11601686.SH 6.27 0.62 0.74 0.85 10.11 8.47 7.38 36 36 2021A 2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E171,575 168,637 161,148 165,076 168,798%47%-2%-4%2%2%11,805 8,419 7,114 7,884 8,542%39%-29%-15%11%8%9,680 6,379 5,343 5,968 6,419%51%-34%-16%12%8%1.40 0.92 0.77 0.86 0.93 37 37 0102030405060708090100:-100-500501001502002503000100020003000400050006000700080002018-022018-052018-082018-112019-022019-052019-082019-112020-022020-052020-082020-112021-022021-052021-082021-112022-022022-052022-082022-112023-022023-052023-08:()%38 38 2021A 2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E98,593 98,345 110,057 113,679 122,897%29%0%12%3%8%10,305 8,170 7,624 8,602 9,117%26%-21%-7%13%6%7,778 7,105 6,055 7,091 7,524%29%-9%-15%17%6%1.54 1.41 1.20 1.41 1.49 39 39 2021A 2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E7,414 7,815 8,239 9,804 11,072%18%5%5%19%13%925 412 474 680 831%47%-55%15%43%22%783 197 422 583 720%42%-75%115%38%24%0.40 0.10 0.21 0.30 0.37 40 40 2021A 2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E698 1,032 1,191 1,389 1,626%28%48%15%17%17%159 249 400 522 660%48%57%61%31%26%181 255 354 465 590%66%41%39%31%27%0.46 0.64 0.89 1.18 1.49 41 41 2021A 2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E685 872 957 1,263 1,638%14%27%10%32%30%46 84 119 181 227%-34%81%42%52%25%46 80 100 158 194%-25%74%25%57%23%0.20 0.34 0.43 0.68 0.83 42 42 2021A 2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E1,063 1,212 1,398 1,625 1,865%49%14%15%16%15%144 165 204 226 252%66%14%24%11%11%121 141 187 207 230%77%17%32%11%11%1.62 1.89 2.50 2.77 3.08 43 43 2021A 2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E2,737 3,367 4,801 5,821 6,380%51%23%43%21%10%242 196 275 418 500%4%-19%41%52%20%176 103 138 235 311%2%-42%34%70%33%0.82 0.48 0.64 1.10 1.45 44 44 2021A 2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E1,933 2,526 2,973 3,622 4,345%49%31%18%22%20%225 321 371 478 618%32%43%16%29%29%178 298 305 406 525%25%67%2%33%29%0.53 0.89 0.92 1.22 1.57 45 45 2021A 2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E31,366 39,555 39,005 42,563 44,031%53%26%-1.39%9%3%907 866 773 891 1,005%57%-5%-11%15%13%591 487 424 511 584%43%-18%-13%21%14%1.55 1.28 1.11 1.34 1.53 46 46 010002000300040005000600070002011-012011-082012-032012-102013-052013-122014-072015-022015-092016-042016-112017-062018-012018-082019-032019-102020-052020-122021-072022-022022-092023-04:47 47 2021A 2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E726 1,066 1,066 1,538 1,928%46%47%0%44%25%143 239 310 388 501%18%68%30%25%29%120 193 252 317 411%13%61%30%26%30%0.61 0.97 1.27 1.59 2.07 48 48 2021A 2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E403 428 615 769 837%57%6%44%25%9%105 99 143 186 200%73%-6%44%30%8%89 99 133 165 179%71%11%35%24%8%1.04 1.15 1.56 1.93 2.09 49 49-30-20-100102030405060702004-022004-122005-102006-082007-062008-042009-022009-122010-102011-082012-062013-042014-022014-122015-102016-082017-062018-042019-022019-122020-102021-082022-062023-04:%146 6030 080 0 04 4510802468101214162008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 50 50 2021A 2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E5,974 6,537 7,754 8,365 8,686%21%9%19%8%4%801 809 1,174 1,508 1,686%-2%1%45%28%12%794 1,288 1,588 1,472 1,534%3%62%23%-7%4%0.81 1.32 1.62 1.51 1.57 51 51 2021A 2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E4,226 6,223 7,728 8,154 8,968%7%47%24%6%10%31 447 1,083 1,268 1,445%-93%1361%142%17%14%136 471 852 1,004 1,152%10%247%81%18%15%0.15 0.53 0.96 1.13 1.29 52 52 2021A 2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E1,123 1,207 1,787 1,964 2,182%27%7%48%10%11%48 84 226 292 392%-31%74%169%29%34%52 73 200 260 352%0%40%172%30%35%0.48 0.67 1.82 2.37 3.20 53 53 05001,0001,5002,0002,5003,00014-02 15-02 16-02 17-02 18-02 19-02 20-02 21-02 22-02 23-02出厂价:钛精矿(攀46):TJK4605,00010,00015,00020,00025,00015-03 16-03 17-03 18-03 19-03 20-03 21-03 22-03 23-03现货价:钛白粉(金红石型):国内 54 54 55 55 2021A 2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E2,303 1,996 2,025 2,772 5,225%41%-13%1%37%89%1,483 1,208 1,157 1,235 1,517%87%-19%-4%7%23%1,435 1,095 1,027 1,096 1,335%105%-24%-6%7%22%3.58 2.73 2.56 2.73 3.33 56 56 2021A 2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E14,060 15,088 14,925 16,429 16,822%33%7%-1%10%2%1,626 1,388 1,170 1,565 1,811%222%-15%-16%34%16%1,328 1,344 1,138 1,507 1,734%249%1%-15%33%15%0.14 0.14 0.12 0.16 0.19 57 57 020040060080010001200140016001800:PB(61.5%,/)0100000200000300000400000500000600000:(99.5%,/)58 58 2021A 2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E7,199 15,579 12,584 11,840 12,790%45%116%-19%-6%8%949 7,527 4,612 3,402 4,009%166%693%-39%-26%18%887 6,320 3,907 2,964 3,486%244%612%-38%-24%18%1.65 11.72 7.25 5.50 6.47 59 59 2021A 2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E4,895 4,058 4,453 6,489 7,632%96%-17%10%46%18%2,072 1,238 1,664 2,085 2,362%121%-40%34%25%13%1,625 977 1,279 1,594 1,797%174%-40%31%25%13%1.08 0.65 0.85 1.06 1.19 60 60 2021A 2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E6,567 5,053 6,798 8,709 10,414%11%-23%35%28%20%2,679 1,110 2,052 2,941 4,016%29%-59%85%43%37%1,301 666 1,245 1,745 2,277%34%-49%87%40%30%1.99 1.02 1.91 2.67 3.49 61 61 62 62()20231121()(X)2023E 2024E 2025E 2023E 2024E 2025E600507.SH 4.90 0.38 0.43 0.50 12.89 11.40 9.80000932.SZ 5.66 0.77 0.86 0.93 7.35 6.58 6.09600019.SH 6.26 0.50 0.57 0.63 12.52 10.98 9.94000959.SZ 3.71 0.16 0.24 0.32 23.19 15.46 11.59600782.SH 3.90 0.39 0.49 0.59 10.00 7.96 6.61600010.SH 1.60 0.00 0.01 0.02#DIV/0!160.00 80.00001203.SZ 10.98 0.85 1.06 1.19 12.92 10.36 9.23000923.SZ 16.74 1.91 2.67 3.49 8.76 6.27 4.80002756.SZ 47.05 7.25 5.50 6.47 6.49 8.55 7.27600516.SH 5.84 0.19 0.25 0.32 30.74 23.36 18.25300855.SZ 30.65 0.89 1.18 1.49 34.44 25.97 20.57603995.SH 22.07 1.11 1.34 1.53 19.88 16.47 14.42000708.SZ 14.36 1.20 1.41 1.49 11.97 10.18 9.64600399.SH 9.86 0.21 0.30 0.37 46.95 32.87 26.65688186.SH 20.45 0.64 1.10 1.45 31.95 18.59 14.10002318.SZ 19.13 1.62 1.51 1.57 11.81 12.67 12.18300881.SZ 27.95 2.00 2.60 3.52 13.98 10.75 7.94000778.SZ 3.95 0.48 0.50 0.54 8.23 7.90 7.31002443.SZ 7.25 0.60 0.74 0.90 12.08 9.80 8.06601686.SH 6.25 0.62 0.74 0.85 10.08 8.45 7.35002978.SZ 33.80 2.56 2.73 3.33 13.20 12.38 10.15000629.SZ 3.54 0.12 0.16 0.19 29.50 22.13 18.630581.HK 1.20 0.35 0.41 0.47 3.43 2.93 2.550826.HK 2.36 0.33 0.36 0.38 7.06 6.48 6.28688786.SH 44.24 1.56 1.93 2.09 28.36 22.92 21.17300811.SZ 63.69 1.27 1.59 2.07 50.15 40.06 30.77603191.SH 15.60 0.92 1.22 1.57 16.96 12.79 9.94002478.SZ 6.01 0.96 1.13 1.29 6.26 5.32 4.66300963.SZ 13.27 0.43 0.68 0.83 30.86 19.51 15.99301160.SZ 43.48 2.50 2.77 3.08 17.39 15.70 14.12 63 64 64 65 65 66