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20231123_华创证券_环保及水务行业深度研究报告:为什么高股息策略要配置水务资产?_36页.pdf

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20231123_华创证券_环保及水务行业深度研究报告:为什么高股息策略要配置水务资产?_36页.pdf

2009 1210 2023 11 23 A 1 2022 2.5%2 5 40%99%98%/21%/57%/22%2021 2000 3 2000 8 2022 2021 13%+A 2023 10 30 15.3x 2010 6.57%2010 1 A/5.14%/4.86%/4.69%2023.10.30 60%A A A A/H 1 2 3 EPS PE PB 2023E 2024E 2025E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2023E 8.69 0.98 1.19 1.28 8.86 7.32 6.81 1.21 2.73 0.23 0.25 0.28 11.75 10.82 9.74 0.76 Wind 2023 11 17 010-63214656 S0360518070002%()113 0.01()6,255.56 0.70()5,146.52 0.74%1M 6M 12M 2.2%-5.9%-6.0%4.2%4.0%0.5%2023-07-19 2023-05-26-13%-5%3%11%22/11 23/02 23/04 23/06 23/09 23/112022-11-212023-11-17 300 2009 1210 A/+100%A A/H A/H 1 2 3 WUCXyRmRoNrQoQoNrMrOrQ8OcM9PnPpPpNnOeRoPnMlOsQnR8OrQrNvPnPqNvPmMnP 2009 1210 3.7 2023.7.7.9.9.10+A.12.12.12.14 A.15.17.17.20+.22.24.24.26.29.32.33 2009 1210 4 1.7 2.7 3.7 4 2000-2022.8 5 2014-2023.8 6.9 7.10 8.10 9.11 10.11 11.11 12.12 13.12 14 PE TTM.12 15.13 16 A.13 17.13 18.14 19 A.14 20.14 21 2009.15 22 TTM.15 23.16 24 EPS/.16 25.16 26 PE TTM.16 27.17 28.17 29 2010 2022.17 30.18 31.19 32.19 33.19 2009 1210 5 34 2022&.19 35.20 36 ROIC.20 37 2022.20 38 2022/.20 39.21 40.21 41.21 42.21 43 ROE.22 44.22 45 10.23 46 10.23 47 ROE.23 48 O&M Efficiency Ratio.24 49 ROIC.24 50.24 51.24 52 2022.25 53 2022.25 54.25 55.25 56.26 57.26 58 36.26 59.26 60 2022/27 61.28 62.28 63.29 64.29 65.29 66 2022.30 67.30 68 2022.30 2009 1210 6 69 2022.30 70 ROE.31 71/.31 72.32 73.32 74.32 2009 1210 7 2023 2023 1.28%300 10%+2023.10.26 1 2 Wind Wind 3 Wind 5.23%5.01%4.59%4.14%3.77%5 1 114.93%99.04%64.03%61.59%58.91%5 1 2009 1210 8 4 2000-2022 Wind 5 2014-2023 Wind 2009 1210 9 1 2 20%50%1 2022 2.5%2 5 40%32 6+1 2 3 4 2009 1210 10+1 2 3 4 4 7 8 20 90 2022 99.39%97.86%2000 2002 2000-2010 19%2022 1045/38.85%2022 98.11%96.94%2009 1210 11 9 10 2022 2022 2000 2022 4707 1003 21%2677 57%1028 22%2022 139.64 2000 32.46 3 4695 2000 481 8 11 2022 WIND 2010 2011 2020 24%2020 2022 2009 1210 12 12 Wind+A 2010 2015 2016 2016 2017 PE 50 x 2023 10 30 2010 77.28%15.28x 2010 6.57%2015 2016 2016 2019 2023 10 30/8.6x/9.7x/15.2x 13 14 PE TTM Wind Wind 2022 3.13 27%2010-2021 A 2009 1210 13 15 16 A Wind Wind 15-40 15-20 2000 2022 9%2010 1 2022 1.1 17 30-40 7-28 6-12 5-12 8-40 5-15 8-15 25-40 5-12 15-30 10-15 5-8 25 5 15-50 5-10 5-10 20 5 20-30 10 6 15 5 5-50 3-20 10-50 3-22 20-35 5-25 5-10 30 5 20-40 10-30 5-15 3-5 35-45 5-12 5-10 15-45 10-20 4-12 15-20 25-40 5-15 5-7 10 50 10 20 5 10 20 15 5-6 15 5-8 15-50 5-10 35 40 5-7 30-40 10 6 15 5-10 15-40 5-18 5-10 5 20-30 5-10 4-5 10-30 3-5 8-35 5-18 6 15-20 5-10 2009 1210 14 18 19 A Wind Wind 2023 1 2023 4 2023 7 A/9.5%/5.1%/4.9%/4.7%60%20 ROE PE PB 2023E 2024E 2022 2022 2022 TTM TTM MRQ 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 0371.HK 167 29.48 31.91 39.4%10.5%3.7%9.5%7.6 0.5 39%38%39%38%115%601158.SH 267 18.06 19.96 35.7%24.7%11.5%4.9%16.0 1.6 95%74%69%59%68%600461.SH 92 10.67 11.98 29.4%14.0%13.5%5.1%8.6 1.4 40%50%60%63%50%000605.SZ 21-23.0%2.0%0.7%0.3%178.5 1.0 12%19%35%62%45%000544.SZ 70 9.52 11.46 23.2%7.7%6.5%2.1%8.1 1.0 59%52%49%48%34%600283.SH 48-38.0%13.3%8.1%1.1%23.3 2.1 0%0%38%35%31%600008.SH 203 23.17 26.95 32.8%19.7%11.5%4.7%17.3 1.1 63%47%35%32%30%601368.SH 47-36.4%7.3%3.6%1.1%34.5 1.0 30%30%32%31%30%000685.SZ 108 15.72 18.91 20.3%29.0%7.0%3.0%9.7 0.7 30%35%30%30%30%600874.SH 90-34.0%18.0%9.9%2.5%11.5 1.1 30%30%30%30%30%601199.SH 50 3.27 3.79 43.1%22.1%8.3%1.7%14.8 1.4 34%32%31%30%30%2009 1210 15 0855.HK 81-20.96 38.3%22.9%16.1%6.8%4.4 0.6 32%33%29%29%29%003039.SZ 105-45.2%25.0%10.3%0.6%43.4 4.0 0%0%29%29%29%603291.SH 66-31.9%11.3%9.9%0.4%42.9 4.6 0%0%0%0%23%000598.SZ 168 17.43 19.32 38.5%22.2%11.5%2.0%9.7 1.1 20%25%23%20%21%603817.SH 33-39.8%13.5%6.6%0.9%19.0 1.3 20%20%20%20%20%000809.SZ 28-36.1%-16.3%-1.3%0.0%-99.4 1.0 0%0%0%0%0%600168.SH 43-20.2%0.1%0.1%0.0%18.8 0.8 30%29%28%29%0%600187.SH 44-23.7%-41.6%-3.6%0.0%49.8 1.4 0%0%0%0%0%600769.SH 36-33.0%20.8%14.7%0.0%267.8 44.0 0%0%0%0%0%603759.SH 39-44.2%18.1%9.4%0.0%17.4 1.7 0%0%30%30%0%Wind 2023 10 30 A A A 2013 2 CAC 2018 11 2009 2 2023 10 213%80.23%2022 2014 17 21 2009 22 TTM Wind Wind 400%2022 2.57 8.9%2013 2021 9 50%2009 1210 16 23 24 EPS/2010 2023 H1 746%251%2010-2022 9.77%PE(TTM)2011 20.89 2021 44.93 2022 21.03 2010 2021 9 964%401%2022 A 25 26 PE TTM Wind Wind 2010 2009 1210 17 2022 1.11 0.97 0.46 0.44MWh 2716 2022 428.85 7.16 2021 27 28 Wind Wind 2010 2011 2013 Environmental Services 2013 29 2010 2022 2011 2009 1210 18 2014 10 2022 13 2013 2014 30 2022 30 6.9%2022 29.16 6.7%MIB SARPI&IWS VNS ES Alaron SEDE SADE 60%20%20%2010 2012-2017 0.35%2018 IFSR16 2022 36.7 45.02%2002-2014 10.4%2009 1210 19 31 32 2010 industrial investment 2014 2014 91 58 2022 97.8 72 2022 13%33 34 2022&2013 2013 2021 17.63 31.47 7.5%2010 15%2.5%2010 ROIC 2012 0.79%2019 2.46%2020 ROIC 2009 1210 20 35 36 ROIC Wind Wind American Water Works Company,AWK.N 1886 2008 14 24 Regulated Businesses 2022 91%7%55%37 2022 38 2022/2010 2022 13.84 12.45 1.58/2.58/4.2%2009 1210 21 39 40 2006 2021 4.3%2022 37.92 3.5%2010 2017 2022 2022 8.2 35%2010 2021 15%41 42 Wind Wind 2022 33.57%2010 10.91pct 2010 2022 2027 30%2022 21.62%ROE 2022 9.14%2009 1210 22 43 ROE Wind+Public Utilities Commission PUC PUC PUC Rate Base WACC+O&M Expense+44 American Water Investor Presentation Rate Base 2010 2022 2022 178 2022 Fourth Quarter and Year-End Earnings Call Presentation 2016 2032 8%-9%2015 2022 10%2009 1210 23 Regulated System Investments Regulated Acquisitions 2022 88.5%45 10 46 10 ROE WACC=ROE+1-ROE 47 ROE ROE$667,632 9.20%55.39%1/1/2021$1,642,200 9.78%49.00%1/1/2023$1,182,170 9.80%53.41%5/1/2020$443,654 9.70%48.90%6/28/2019$1,703,170 9.55%50.00%5/28/2021$4,146,492 9.60%54.56%9/1/2022$5,141,180 10.00%55.20%1/28/2023$132,015 10.00%34.38%11/1/2012$194,165 9.30%40.75%11/6/2020$734,028 9.80%47.97%2/25/2022 American Water Investor Presentation O&M Efficiency Ratio 2010 2022 2027 30%2021 6.56%2022 ROIC 3.97%2009 1210 24 48 O&M Efficiency Ratio 49 ROIC American Water Investor Presentation=/Wind+11.13%20.34%50 51 2009 1210 25 2022 32%/2022/23.8%/16.8%83%8%52 2022 53 2022 2016 2022 13.18%2020 2022 34.10%2016 2022 18.72%31.47%2023 3 268/45/2023 8.36 32.58%54 55 2021 2020 2009 1210 26 IWA 36 0.67%1.5%3%56 57 IWA 2021 2023 11 16 7.25 2021 3 3-5 0.3-0.45 2019 2017-2019 10 58 36 59 2022 Wind Wind 2009 1210 27 60 2022/1998 2011+2004 2021 10 1 2 3 4 2009 1210 28 61 6-8 17%60%62/2.25 3.32 11.62 17.19%2021.8.31 2021.11.1 8 2.7 3.5 5 58.82%2021.9.29 2021.11.1/2.95 3.85 5.70 18%2021.9.28 2022.1.1 7 2.57 3.82 10.04 33.85%2021.11.30 2022.1.1 6 2.6 3.25 5.78/2022.1.28 2022.2/2 2.4 3 21.21%2021.10.28 2022.5.1/0.5/-3/36 3.44/(SL72 2013)1.5%3%0.21%0.67%2009 1210 29 63 Wind 2023 10 20 2014 2018 2014 37.67%5.08 2018 2019 2019 29.48%8.74 2013 33.29%2022 41.60%64 65 Wind Wind 2022 30%2022 39.38%/38%2022 24.66%2022 63.52%/2009 1210 30 66 2022 67 Wind Wind A 2022 44.3%2019 11.1pct 2021 2020 9.4pct 68 2022 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 45.6%46.0%48.0%46.0%45.8%45.3%48.6%49.5%49.5%49.5%48.2%44.3%38.4%40.3%51.4%47.9%47.7%41.6%38.9%37.0%37.6%40.6%41.9%41.3%27.1%28.1%30.6%42.1%40.8%42.9%45.7%36.3%28.5%28.9%31.1%27.7%28.6%28.8%22.5%28.4%30.5%29.5%25.8%25.5%18.2%10.5%9.6%4.3%-1.9%-1.0%-21.4%69 2022 231373 93435 94683 306605 79785 96101 174965 16724/400 194 194 660 207 322 130 2009 1210 31 117119 47501 45324 152799 63060 49866 75701 32543 80%67%64%63%83%64%69%100315 39426 41669 136943 50556 45746 64321 31319 86%83%92%90%80%92%85%96%2.31 2.37 2.27 2.24 1.58 2.10 2.72 0.53 128926 54569 54738 212802 58193 74469 143138 20307 15.3%8.1%13.8%24.7%26.5%34.2%2.1%4.9%2.6%9.8%24.9%20.7%16.9%24.0%18.1%25.7%20.4%24.7%32.2%20.5%30.1%25.7%24.0%30.9%17.9%0.27 0.37 0.25 0.42 0.24 0.36 0.59 0.11 0.87 0.82 0.88 0.61 0.34 0.43 0.42-0.11 ROE 2022 ROE 9.15%2022 ROE 16.13%2022 0.25/0.53/0.43/0.35 70 ROE 71/Wind Wind 2022 35%3.7%/2022 67.9%/50.2%/30.7%2022 9.3%2009 1210 32 72 73 Wind 2022 Wind 2022 74 1 72.62 88.47 63.31 2-100.14 85.89 31.12 3 36.60 32.54 17.74 4 51.13 56.45 17.52 5 46.92 64.80 14.00 6 128.22 23.12 11.21 7 58.46 30.23 9.10 8 12.01 17.10 4.33 9 15.01 12.30 3.83 10 5.71 12.48 3.83 11 24.15 12.29 3.56 12 5.60 5.63 1.59 13 5.66 6.71 63.31 14 11.34 1.44 0.35 15-7.50-1.46 0.00 Wind A/H 1.2.2009 1210 33 3.3 2009 1210 34 2017 2019 2022 2022 2023 2023 2009 1210 35 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-66500808 010-66500821 010-63214682 0755-82828570 0755-83715428 0755-82756804 0755-82871425 0755-82871425 021-20572536 021-20572555 021-20572257-2552 021-20572506 021-20572585 021-20572509 021-20572548 021-20572573 0755-82756805 021-20572559 021-20572559 0755-82756805 021-20572559 玙 021-25072549 2009 1210 36 A 300 500/6 20%6 10%20%6-10%10%6 10%20%3-6 5%3-6-5%5%3-6 5%26 C 3A 1061 A 19 33 12 100033 518034 200120 010-66500801 0755-82027731 021-20572500 010-66500900 0755-82828562 021-20572522

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