20230427_国盛证券_食品饮料行业证券研究报告：如何看待2023年的啤酒行业？_20页.pdf
|2023 04 27 2023 2023 2023 2022 3-5-10.3%/-18.3%/-0.7%22Q2 23Q2 2023 5000 2023 2022 2023+2-3%&3 2023 2023 2022 2022 Beta Alpha 2022 PE 2023 Q2 2023 Beta Beta 2023 Beta 2023 Beta Alpha S0680519070001 S0680522080001 1 2023Q1 2023-04-24 2 2023-04-10 3 2023-04-01 EPS P E 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E 000729.SZ 0.08 0.12 0.24 0.35 169.88 113.25 56.63 38.83 600600.SH 2.31 2.72 3.28 3.88 51.49 43.73 36.26 30.65 00291.HK 1.80 2.20 2.60 34.22 28.00 23.69 600132.SH 2.41 2.61 3.13 3.85 43.98 40.61 33.86 27.53 002461.SZ 0.28 0.27 0.32 0.39 34.25 35.52 29.97 24.59 Wind-32%-16%0%16%32%2022-04 2022-08 2022-12 2023-04 300 2023 04 27 P.2 1 2023.4 1.1.4 1.2 2023.6 1.3.8 1.4&.10 2.13 2.1 2022.13 2.2 2023 Beta.16 3 Beta.17 3.1 U8+Alpha.17 3.2 Beta.17 3.3.17 3.4.18 3.5.18.18 1 1-3.4 2 1-3.4 3 1-3 2019.4 4 2020-2022.4 5.5 6.5 7 2022.5 8 Q2.5 9.6 10.6 11.6 12.6 13.7 14.7 15 2022.7 16.8 17.8 18.9 19.9 20.9 21/.9 22 2019.10 23/.10 24/.10 0YAZwPnQmPnMpRsRmRrOpO9PbP8OnPnNoMnOlOqQtPkPsQyQ8OoOwPvPrQrPvPtRtO 2023 04 27 P.3 25 2015-2022.11 26 2022.12 27 2022.12 28 2022.12 29.12 30 2022.13 31 2018.13 32 2015-2021.13 33 2015-2022Q2.14 34 2017-2022.14 35 2017-2022.15 36 2017-2022.15 37 2022 PE 2023.15 38 PE-TTM.16 2023 04 27 P.4 1 2023 1.1 2023 1-2 2022 1-2+10.1%/8.9%+10.2%/9.2%3 2019 60%2020-2022 2022 40.6%3 2023 1 1-3 2 1-3 Wind Wind 3 1-3 2019 4 2020-2022 Wind 2022 3+20.4%1-3+4.5%3/1-3-29.2%/-19.0%2022 2023 1-3/2021+8.0%/-26.2%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%050010001500200025002022-022022-032022-042022-052022-062022-072022-082022-092022-102022-112022-122023-022023-03:YoY-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%01000200030004000500060007000800090002022-022022-032022-042022-052022-062022-072022-082022-092022-102022-112022-122023-022023-03:YoY60%70%80%90%100%110%120%130%140%2022-022022-032022-042022-052022-062022-072022-082022-092022-102022-112022-122023-022023-03:-2019-2019 50%60.0%45.0%44.4%40.6%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 04 27 P.5 5 6 Wind Wind 2022 3 3-5-10.3%/-18.3%/-0.7%22Q2 2023 Q2 Q3 Q2 7 2022 8 Q2 Wind Wind 3900 11.4%2.2%2100 40.0%7.0%300 100%14.9%2014 2013 4983 2022 3569 2013 506 2020 346 CR5 2020 92%-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%2021-022021-042021-062021-082021-102021-122022-032022-052022-072022-092022-112023-02 YoY YoY-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%2022-022022-032022-042022-052022-062022-072022-082022-092022-102022-112022-122023-022023-03:-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%01002003004005006001-2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2021 2022 YoY-4%-2%0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%22Q1 22Q2 22Q3 2023 04 27 P.6 9 10 Wind 1.2 2023 5000 10 8 30%5250/3500/5-8 CAGR 5.2-8.4%11 12 Wind-8.0%-6.0%-4.0%-2.0%0.0%2.0%4.0%6.0%8.0%10.0%12.0%01000200030004000500060002010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022:YoY0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 10%15%20%25%30%35%40%2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2023 04 27 P.7 13/5 2500 20%5250 8 CAGR 5.2%6-8 4200 25%/8-10 5500 30%10-12 7000 15%12 10000 10%2022/+5.2%/4.8%/8.4%/6.0%/3.6%2020 CR5 92%14 15 2022 Wind 2023 2023 2023 2022 31.9%22.9%10.3%19.5%7.4%-3.0-2.5-2.0-1.5-1.0-0.50.00.50%1%2%3%4%5%6%7%8%9%pct 2023 04 27 P.8 16 1.3 2023 2023+2-3%17 Wind 2019-2022 498/419/571/250 17.2%/11.5%/17.6%/8.3%2022 2023 2800/2023 0%50%100%150%200%35-40%35-40%35-40%15%15%15%100-200%80-100%30%-5%0%5%10%15%20%2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 04 27 P.9 18 19 Wind Wind 2023 2-3%2024 2018 11 2020 5 73.6%2017 73.1%20 21/Wind Wind 2020 12 WTO 2023 4 11 4 13 4 14 2024-10.0%0.0%10.0%20.0%30.0%40.0%50.0%60.0%100012001400160018002000220024002600280030002021-012021-032021-052021-072021-092021-112022-012022-032022-052022-072022-092022-112023-012023-03/YoY-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%10000120001400016000180002000022000240002021-012021-032021-052021-072021-092021-112022-012022-032022-052022-072022-092022-112023-012023-03():/YoY0100200300400500600700 2015 2016 2017 20182019 2020 2021 2022050100150200250300350400 2013 2014 2015 2016 20172018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 04 27 P.10 1.4&2022 2019 4 A 3 2023 2019 2023 22 2019 Wind 23/24/Wind Wind 2018 2018 2022/2018-6.4/-0.5/-0.1/-1.1pct 9.4%/4.8%/12.5%/10.3%2023 26.2%30.4%33.5%38.6%51.6%47.8%22.5%18.8%58.9%56.9%56.1%50.9%30.7%32.8%72.1%76.4%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2019-2022-2019-2022-2019-2021-2019-2022-050100150200250300350400450500 2019 2020 2021 2022CAGR：10.0%CAGR：11.5%CAGR：-7.1%CAGR：-0.2%050100150200250300350400450 2019 2020 2021 2022CAGR：3.5%CAGR：2.9%CAGR：-0.2%CAGR：8.0%2023 04 27 P.11 25 2015-2022 Wind 2022 2023 2022/EBIT Margin+2.3/2.4pct 16.4%/12.0%2022/+2.5/+1.0/+5.4/-0.6/+3.9 12.6%/15.1%/9.2%/5.4%/1.4%2022-3.3pct 24.0%2022+1.7pct 4.2%10%2022 20.9%-13.2pct 2022 2023 2023 2022 2023 0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%16%18%2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 04 27 P.12 26 2022 27 2022 Wind 2021 Wind 28 2022 29 Wind Wind 0.0%0.5%1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%10%11%12%13%14%15%16%17%18%EBIT Margin YoY-1.00.01.02.03.04.05.06.00%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%16%YoY-0.50.00.51.01.52.00%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%16%YoY0%10%20%30%40%50%60%2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 04 27 P.13 2 2.1 2022 Q2 Q3 60%30 2022 31 2018 Wind Wind Q2 Q2 2015-2022 8 Q2 Q4 Q2 300 8 Q2 2018 Q2 Q2 32 2015-2021 2015-2022 2015-2022 300 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4-2.4%21.8%-8.6%11.6%-2.8%18.8%-5.3%7.2%-2.5%22.1%1.3%12.3%-2.8%19.1%4.6%7.9%2.1%33.6%-4.8%12.0%1.8%30.5%-1.5%7.6%0.4%5.3%-2.1%5.6%0.1%2.3%1.2%1.2%4.7%15.1%-9.4%6.4%4.4%12.0%-6.1%2.0%Wind 31.3%28.8%29.2%31.7%30.6%33.4%30.3%34.1%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%22Q4 22Q3 22Q2 22Q10.0%0.1%0.2%0.3%0.4%0.5%0.6%0.7%0.8%0.9%1.0%2011-062011-122012-062012-122013-062013-122014-062014-122015-062015-122016-062016-122017-062017-122018-062018-122019-062019-122020-062020-122021-062021-122022-06/A/A 2023 04 27 P.14 33 2015-2022Q2 Wind Q1 1 1 3 31 Q2 3 31 6 30 Q3 6 30 9 30 Q4 9 30 12 31 2017-2022 6 Wind PE 2022 2021 2020 beta/Wind PE 67/78/94x 2021 2020 2020 Wind 30 x 2020 2021 Beta Alpha 2022 PE Alpha 34 2017-2022 PE PE PE PE 2017 553.9 2017-12-26 41.2 37.6 396.5 2017-01-12 23.2 20.6 2018 761.8 2018-05-28 50.4 42.0 387.6 2018-10-29 25.7 22.3 2019 745.6 2019-11-14 42.0 35.3 447.0 2019-01-14 25.9 22.3 2020 1466.8 2020-12-14 66.6 55.5 509.1 2020-03-19 24.1 20.5 2021 1580.2 2021-06-29 57.1 47.1 1011.1 2021-03-15 37.6 32.0 2022 1519.1 2022-12-06 43.5 36.0 1005.0 2022-04-11 29.7 24.8 50.1 42.2 27.7 23.7 Wind 2023 04 27 P.15 35 2017-2022 PE PE PE PE 2017 782.1 2017-12-22 42.7 36.3 416.4 2017-01-19 20.0 17.7 2018 1046.0 2018-07-20 55.2 43.1 743.1 2018-02-06 37.3 38.2 2019 1313.0 2019-08-29 73.7 44.7 692.0 2019-01-04 26.2 21.8 2020 1966.7 2020-12-30 77.8 52.2 952.2 2020-03-23 37.1 26.4 2021 2041.4 2021-01-08 54.2 41.9 1509.4 2021-09-23 35.8 33.5 2022 2086.0 2022-02-21 47.8 37.7 1200.3 2022-10-31 28.6 22.7 58.6 42.7 30.8 26.7 Wind 36 2017-2022 PE PE PE PE 2017 121.4 2017-07-31 32.3 27.0 85.4 2017-01-16 23.2 20.4 2018 162.0 2018-05-28 38.3 32.3 93.3 2018-02-09 21.9 18.4 2019 282.3 2019-12-13 48.1 49.4 140.4 2019-01-14 28.6 24.4 2020 590.4 2020-12-14 93.5 74.5 198.3 2020-03-23 34.5 30.2 2021 992.3 2021-07-21 92.4 75.7 440.4 2021-03-15 54.7 47.0 2022 709.5 2022-06-30 49.4 39.7 423.1 2022-10-31 30.7 25.0 59.0 49.8 32.3 27.6 Wind 5 2023 Wind 2022 Wind PE 5 4 21/21.3%/29.7%/48.9%/55.9%/-7.1%2022 Beta Alpha 37 2022 PE 2023 1,591 1,998 369 512 205 2023 Wind 44.4 54.2 5.8 16.2 7.2 2022 PE 43.5 47.8 94.4 49.4 26.5 2023 1929.2 2591.8 549.7 799.0 190.1 21.3%29.7%48.9%55.9%-7.1%Wind 2023 4 27 2023 04 27 P.16 2.2 2023 Beta 2023 2022 2022 2023 22Q2 23Q2 2023 Beta 5 2022 Beta Alpha 2023 38 PE-TTM Wind 2023 04 27 P.17 3 Beta 3.1 U8+Alpha U8 U8 8 U8 2023 Wind PE 62x 23Q1 Q1 Q2 22H1/-12.2%/-30.6%17.4/2.3 23H1 U8 3.2 Beta 2022 3 2023 A Beta 3.3 150 2023 3+3+3 2023 Beta 2023 04 27 P.18 3.4 3.5 97 2023 04 27 P.19“”,“”“”6 A 300 500 15%5%15%-5%+5%5%10%-10%+10%10%26 3 100032 010-57671718 868 One56 1 10 200120 021-38124100 1115 330038 0791-86281485 100 24 518033 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