20231026_海通证券_锂行业证券研究报告：新能源车需求稳步增长Q4供给可关注非洲_27页.pdf
SAC S0850522120002 SAC S0850520010002 2023 10 26 Q4 2 Wind 2023 10 16 17.35/6%GFEX 16.89/1%1%2023 9 1.37 66%2.62/Q4 2023 9 Leo Lithium Premier MinRes Zulu Goulamina DSO MinRes Alita Bald Hill Bald Hill 2023Q4 Wind 2023 9 90.4+7%31.6%12.7 9.9%XVDWwPsPmPrQpRoNrMrOoP6MdN9PmOqQoMoNkPnMnNfQpNpR8OmNqMwMqNwONZpMmN3 Wind SMM ACEA 2023-10-16 17.40/-6%2023-9 1.31 32%2023-10-16 GFEX 15.20/-3%2023-9 1.10 1%2023-10-16 Wind 4592-2%2023-9 49.97 119%2023-10-16 2230/-3%2023-9 1.37-33%2023-9 22.88/-9%2023-9 36.40 GWh 4%2023-9 32.31/-6%2023-9 11.40 GWh 15%2023-9 2.62/-13%2023-9 90.40 7%2023-9 3.26/-31%2023-9 31.6%-1.1pct 2023-8 4.10/-34%2023-9 27.93 6%2023-9 4.17-7%2023-9 23.9%-5.3pct 2023-9 2.40-5%2023-9 13.22 4%2023-9 4.86-12%2023-9 9.9%-0.4pct 1.2.3.4.5.4 5 Wind 17.35/6%/2023.10.16 01020304050602021/10 2022/04 2022/10 2023/04 2023/10 1314151617182401 2402 2403 2404 2405 2406 24072023-09-16 2023-10-16/17.35-6%/16.40-16%/16.10-8%/9.45-13%/16.01-7%/6.38-7%GFEX/16.89-1%NCM811/20.85-4%/2230-13%/22.85-7%/134-12%/5.60 1%6 Wind 23/09 2.62/02040602021/03 2021/09 2022/03 2022/09 2023/03 2023/09 02040602021/03 2021/09 2022/03 2022/09 2023/03 2023/09 024682021/03 2021/09 2022/03 2022/09 2023/03 2023/09 024682021/02 2021/08 2022/02 2022/08 2023/02 2023/08 7 Wind*8 1 3/2230/*15.8/010203040020004000600080002021/10 2022/04 2022/10 2023/04 2023/10/*/020406001002003004002021/10 2022/04 2022/10 2023/04 2023/10 102030405051015202021/10 2022/04 2022/10 2023/04 2023/10 NCM111 NCM523 NCM622 NCM811 048121620304050602021/10 2022/04 2022/10 2023/04 2023/10 8 Wind 1%23 2023.10.16-35%-25%-15%-5%5%15%25%2023/01 2023/02 2023/03 2023/04 2023/05 2023/06 2023/07 2023/08 2023/09 2023/10 CS SW 9 Wind 2023.10.16 2023.10.16-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%ST-15%-10%-5%0%SQM Pilbara Livent Allkem MinRes IGO 1.2.3.4.5.10 11 SMM 23/09-6.6%4.86-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%024682021/03 2021/09 2022/03 2022/09 2023/03 2023/09 024682021/03 2021/09 2022/03 2022/09 2023/03 2023/09:12 SMM 23/09-3%-1%-40%-20%0%20%40%04812162021/03 2021/09 2022/03 2022/09 2023/03 2023/09-20%-10%0%10%20%30%24682021/03 2021/09 2022/03 2022/09 2023/03 2023/09 13 Wind 23/09 36.40GWh+4%-100%-50%0%50%100%0102030402021/03 2021/09 2022/03 2022/09 2023/03 2023/09 GWh 100%150%200%250%0204060801002021/03 2021/09 2022/03 2022/09 2023/03 2023/09 GWh/0%20%40%60%80%100%2021/03 2021/09 2022/03 2022/09 2023/03 2023/09-100%0%100%200%300%05101520252022/07 2022/10 2023/01 2023/04 2023/07 GWh 14 23/09 11.4GWh 2.3GWh GWh GWh 0246810122023/06 2023/07 2023/08 2023/09 01020304050602023/06 2023/07 2023/08 2023/09 15 Wind 23/09 90.4+7%0%10%20%30%40%0501001502002503002021/03 2021/09 2022/03 2022/09 2023/03 2023/09 0%20%40%60%80%100%2021/03 2021/09 2022/03 2022/09 2023/03 2023/09BEV PHEV 0204060801001 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2020 2021 2022 20230204060801001 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2020 2021 2022 202316 23/09 25.77 34.5%2023 9 2023 9 TOP10 0510152025 34.5%6.8%6.8%5.8%5.4%5.4%4.8%2.8%2.1%2.1%23.5%17 ACEA 23/09 9.9%+0.4pct 2%4%6%8%10%12%040801201602021/02 2021/08 2022/02 2022/08 2023/02 2023/08 024681012141 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2021 2022 202315%20%25%30%1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 2022 20230102030401 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 2022 2023 1.2.3.4.5.18 19 Wind SMM 23/09 1.31 3.19/024681001232020/02 2020/08 2021/02 2021/08 2022/02 2022/08 2023/02 2023/08/02468101200.40.81.22020/02 2020/08 2021/02 2021/08 2022/02 2022/08 2023/02 2023/08/01000200030004000500060000102030402020/02 2020/08 2021/02 2021/08 2022/02 2022/08 2023/02 2023/08/-100%-50%0%50%100%150%200%250%051015202020/03 2020/09 2021/03 2021/09 2022/03 2022/09 2023/03 2023/09 20 23/09 2.62/0%20%40%60%80%01232018/03 2018/09 2019/03 2019/09 2020/03 2020/09 2021/03 2021/09 2022/03 2022/09 2023/03 2023/09 024682018/03 2018/09 2019/03 2019/09 2020/03 2020/09 2021/03 2021/09 2022/03 2022/09 2023/03 2023/09 21 Wind 23/09 3.26/02468010002000300040005000600070002021/03 2021/09 2022/03 2022/09 2023/03 2023/09,/,/,024680200040006000800010000120002021/03 2021/09 2022/03 2022/09 2023/03 2023/09,/,02468010002000300040005000600070002020/02 2020/08 2021/02 2021/08 2022/02 2022/08 2023/02 2023/08,/1.2.3.4.5.22 23 Premier Leo Lithium Sigma Lithium Core Lithium MinRes Sigma Lithium 2023 13 2023-10-15 Liontown Resources 2023-10-2 Sigma Lithium Greentech 890 32/2023 13 2023-9-29 Premier Zulu 2023-9-27 60/2023-9-12 9000 Kings Mountain 2026 2023-9-8 Core Lithium 1 9 2023-9-6 Goulamina DSO 24Q2 LMSA 10%Leo MLBV 55%Goulamina 49.5%2023-9-4 Leo Lithium 2023-9-4 MinRes Alita Deed Administrators Implementation Agreement MinRes Alita Bald Hill 1.2.3.4.5.24 25 SAC S0850522120002 021-23219406 Email SAC S0850520010002 021-23154394 Email 26 021-23219383 Email 021-23219383 Email 1.6 6 2.A 500 10%-10%10%-10%6 10%-10%10%-10%27
