20231206_华创证券_AI PC行业深度研究报告:AI PC革新端侧AI交互体验PC行业有望量价齐升_28页.pdf
2009 1210 2023 12 06 AI PC AI PC AI PC AI PC AI 2023 10 24 AI PC 2024 9 AIPC Smart PC AIGC Smart PC Smart PC AI PC AIPC PC AI PC 2024 AI PC AI PC AI PC AI PC AI AI PC PC AIGC Copilot AI PC ChatGPT AI“”AIGC AIGC Copilot Office AIGC PC AI AIGC PC PC 2021 IDC 2023 PC 10.71%7.6%PC 2022 Q2 PC+AI PC AI AI PC PC AI PC PC 0755-82755859 S0360517100004 S0360521120002 S0360523080005%()94 0.01()13,347.17 1.54()11,243.23 1.67%1M 6M 12M-2.4%0.2%6.3%2.9%11.9%20.3%2022-06-08-14%-6%3%12%22/12 23/02 23/04 23/07 23/09 23/122022-12-062023-12-05 300 AI PC 2009 1210 AI PC AI PC PC AI PC AI 2023 10 AI PC AIPC AIPC 2024 AI PC AI PC AI PC AI PC 2023 12 AI AI PC PC AIGC Copilot AI PC ChatGPT AI“”AIGC Copilot Office AIGC PC AI AIGC PC PC 2021 2023 PC 10.71%7.6%PC PC AI PC PC AI PC PC 1ZBYxOmRmPrQqOsRsPsNoP7N8Q7NsQqQsQsReRnMoMkPmMrOaQqQwPwMmOqRvPnPxP AI PC 2009 1210 3 AI PC AI.5 AI PC 2024 9.5 Smart PC AI PC AIGC PC.7 AIPC.8 AI PC AI PC.9 AI.9 AI.11 AI AI PC AI PC.13 AIGC Copilot AI PC.13 ChatGPT AI AIGC.13 AIGC PC AIGC.14 Copilot AIGC PC.15.16.18 1.18 2.18 3.19 4.19 5.20 6.20 7.21 8.21 9.22 10.22 11.22 12.23 13.24 14.24.25 AI PC 2009 1210 4 1 AI Twin.5 2 AI Twin.5 3.5 4.6 5.6 6 AI.7 7 AI PC.7 8 10 ChatGPT.8 9 AI PC.9 10.9 11.10 12.10 13.10 14.11 15 AI.11 16 Stable Diffusion.11 17 A12.12 18 AI PC PC.12 19 Meteor Lake.13 20 AIGC.14 21 AIGC.15 22 Copilot.15 23 Copilot.15 24 AI.16 25 PC.16 26 PC.16 27 PC.17 28 PC.17 29 PC.17 30 PC.18 31 2023Q3 PC.18 AI PC 2009 1210 5 AI PC AI AI PC 2024 9 All For AI 2023 10 24 Lenovo Tech World 2023 CEO AI PC AI Twin AI Twin AI Twin 1 AI Twin 2 AI Twin Tech World 2023 Tech World 2023 AI Public FM(Private FM)(Personal FM)3 Tech World 2023 AI AI AI AI PC 2009 1210 6 1 2 3 AI Public FM Private FM bits bit PC AI AI 4 5 Tech World 2023 Tech World 2023 AI AI PC 9 AI AI AI AI AI AI PC 2009 1210 7 6 AI Tech World 2023 Smart PC AI PC AIGC PC Smart PC Smart PC PC Smart PC Always on Always PC 2.7 AI Smart PC AI PC AIGC Smart PC+PC Smart PC AI PC AI PC 7 AI PC PC AIPC PC PC AIPC AI PC 2009 1210 8+AI AIPC AIPC 2023 3 ChatGPT ChatGPT 3 ChatGPT 20 Cyberhaven ChatGPT 11%8 10 ChatGPT Cyberhaven AI AIGC AI PC AIGC AI AI PC 2024 PC PC AI PC CEO Enrique Lores AI PC PC AIGC AI Acer Acer CPU AIGC AI AI 2024 2025 2024 AI PC 2024 AI PC 1300 2025 2026 AI PC 2027 PC PC AI AI PC 0 50 100 150 200 250项目计划文件受监管的健康数据受监管的个人数据源代码客户数据机密文件 AI PC 2009 1210 9 9 AI PC AI PC AI PC AI AIGC 10 2023.3.21-Reddit BUG ChatGPT 2023.3.30 3 30 Economist ChatGPT“”“”ChatGPT Device Solutions A DB ChatGPT DS B ChatGPT DS C ChatGPT 2023.3.31 GDPR ChatGPT ChatGPT 3 20 ChatGPT Open AI 20 2000 4%2023.4.3 Ulrich Kelber ChatGPT AI OpenAI 2023.4.4 OPC 4 ChatGPT OpenAI“OpenAI”IT OPC 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%0204060801001201401602023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027EAI PC AI PC%AI PC 2009 1210 10 AI AI 11 AI AI AI 12 13 Prakhar Ganesh Knowledge Distillation:Simplified Song Han et.al Learning both Weights and Connections for Efficient Neural Networks AI AI PC 2009 1210 11 LLaMA-Adapter:Efficient Fine-tuning of Language Models with Zero-init Attention 70 LLaMA-Adapter 180 SOC Social Science 14 Renrui Zhang et.al LLaMA-Adapter:Efficient Fine-tuning of Language Models with Zero-init Attention AI 2023 2 23 Stable Diffusion Stable Diffusion 10 10 10 Stable Diffusion 15 15 AI 16 Stable Diffusion AI Siri Siri 2018 AI PC 2009 1210 12 A12 7nm NPU NPU A11 3.16 A12 iPhone XS Siri 17 A12 Tech Insights AI PC AI PC AI PC PC 18 AI PC PC PC NPU PC PC AI PC 2009 1210 13 AI AI PC AI PC AI Meteor Lake 14 2023 12 14(NPU)PC NPU CPU GPU NPU CPU GPU Intel4 Intel 7 408nm Intel 4 240nm 2 19 Meteor Lake AI PC AI PC“on”AI PC IHV ISV AI 2025 100 PC AI 12 14 Ultra AI AI PC AI PC AI PC AIGC Copilot AI PC ChatGPT AI AIGC AI“”1956 2012 AlexNet AI 1.0 2017 Google Transformer 2.0 2018 AI GPT ChatGPT AI“”ChatGPT AI PC 2009 1210 14 AI“”AI“”ChatGPT GPT4.0“”AI“”AI AIGC Game AI AIGC 20 AIGC ChatGPT AIGC ChatGPT“A I iPhone”iPhone Android ChatGPT iPhone 4 ChatGPT iPhone 4 ChatGPT iPhone 4 iPhone 4 ChatGPT AIGC PC AIGC AIGC AIGC AIGC AI PC 2009 1210 15 21 AIGC AIGC AIGC AI OpenAI 2023 3 17 GPTs are GPTs:An Early Look at the Labor Market Impact Potential of Large Language Models GPT 15%80%19%GPT 50%AIGC AIGC 1 2 Copilot AIGC PC Copilot Office 2023 9 Copilot Microsoft Copilot“AI”GitHub Microsoft 365 Bing Edge Windows Microsoft365 Copilot 22 Copilot 23 Copilot AI PC 2009 1210 16 AIGC AI AI PC AIGC 24 AI AI WPS AI Minimax AI AI GPT AI PC PC PC 2021 PC 2022 PC 2021 IDC 2023 PC 0.68 10.71%7.6%25 PC 26 PC IDC IDC PC PC 2022 Q2-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%01020304050607080901002014Q42015Q22015Q42016Q22016Q42017Q22017Q42018Q22018Q42019Q22019Q42020Q22020Q42021Q22021Q42022Q22022Q42023Q2 YoY(%)0501001502002503002015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 AI PC 2009 1210 17 27 PC 28 PC Wind Wind Canalys 2023 6 23 41%70%9 13%29 PC Canalys 2023 1 267 2023 6 243 PC 2023 PC 1600 12.68%720 35.85%Acer 0102030405060708090100 010203040506070 33%41%28%29%21%17%18%13%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2023 1 2023 6 9 AI PC 2009 1210 18 30 PC 31 2023Q3 PC IDC IDC 1 PC 0.008-0.015mm“”2 2015 0510152025联想 惠普 戴尔 苹果2021Q1 2021Q3 2021Q4 2021Q2 2022Q1 2022Q22022Q3 2022Q4 2023Q1 2023Q2 2023Q323.50%19.80%15.00%11%7.10%23.90%Asus AI PC 2009 1210 19 Digitimes 2023 ODM 3 Q3 LED Q3 2300 10.89 YoY+50.9%A+T+A Q3 OLED 5 MR Bot T A+T 21 22 23 2w+AI/23/24/25 24.97/35.1/45.08 20.17/27.95/35.34 T/2023 20 xPE 23.6“”4 AI PC 2009 1210 20 2022 XR AR/VR/MR 2022 XR“/”FDS 2022 2 2022 5 5&/22 11.81 YOY+166.32%2021 ARVR IDC 2023 VR/AR 1,280 2026 AR/VR 3,510+AR/VR AR/VR AR ARVR 6 EMI MR MR AI PC 2009 1210 21 AICG 2023 OpenAI ChatGPT AI AI“”7 PACK PACK PACK RACK PC PC 2022-2023 Techno Systems Research 2022 31.09%2021 3.92“”+“”8 SIP 2021 10 SIP SIP SIP IC AI PC 2009 1210 22 UWB 5G SIP SIP SIP 2022 3 75 20GWh 2023 4 9 PCIe Retimer MXC CKD CPU(HSDIMM)“”AI DDR5 PCIe Retimer MXC CKD 2022-2023 DDR5 CPU DDR4 DDR5 DDR5 CPU CPU 10 FORESEE Lexar()70%2023 10 1 70%“”11 AI PC 2009 1210 23 UDStore UDStore UDStore PCIe Gen4X4 M.2 12+MCU EC MCU EC Embedded Controller MCU/IO 2022 5 EC CSC2E101(E2101)Computex PC 32 EC 9 Intel PCL EC 2023 10 EC CSCE2010 32 EC CSC2E101 E2101 CSCE2102 EC PC PC PC EC PD USB Hub HapticPad BMS PC EC PD Intel PC PC+MCU PC EC PC PC EC EC AI PC 2009 1210 24 13 2006 2023 2 2023 140 CINNO Research 2020 AIGC PC 2023 3 17 AI Microsoft 365 Copilot LLM Microsoft Graph Microsoft 365 Teams Copilot PPT/Excel Zoom 2020 ChatGPT office 365 Teams PC 4K/8K 2023 PC PC 14“+”2005 USB/Type-C NAS 360 Ring Noise 3-Plus()LG Buffalo PC AI PC AIGC SSD AI SSD SSD PC AI PC SSD AI PC 2009 1210 25 1 AI PC 2 PC PC PC 3 AI PC AI PC 2009 1210 26 2019 2016 2017 2019 3 2020 1 2022 2022 2021 2021 2023 2023 AI PC 2009 1210 27 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-66500808 010-66500821 010-63214682 0755-82828570 0755-83715428 0755-82756804 0755-82871425 0755-82871425 021-20572536 021-20572555 021-20572257-2552 021-20572506 021-20572585 021-20572509 021-20572548 021-20572573 0755-82756805 021-20572559 021-20572559 0755-82756805 021-20572559 玙 021-25072549 AI PC 2009 1210 28 A 300 500/6 20%6 10%20%6-10%10%6 10%20%3-6 5%3-6-5%5%3-6 5%26 C 3A 1061 A 19 33 12 100033 518034 200120 010-66500801 0755-82027731 021-20572500 010-66500900 0755-82828562 021-20572522