|1 2023 10 23()SAC S1110522110001 1-:2023-08-16 2-:2023-04-24 3-:2022-03-08/30-3000/ODFL 21+1 2 22 9 3-22%-17%-12%-7%-2%3%8%13%2022-10 2023-02 2023-06 300|2 1.5 1.1.5 1.2.VS VS.7 1.3.9 2.12 2.1.12 2.2.VS.13 2.2.1.ODFL.13 2.2.2.UPSvsFedEx.16 3.18 3.1.18 3.2.+.20 4.22 4.1.22 4.2.24 5.29 5.1.29 5.2.30 5.3.“+”.32 6.34 1.5 2 GDP.6 3.6 4 vs vs.6 5+19.6 6 22.6 7/2020.8 8.9 9.9 10.9 11.9 12.9 13.9 14.10 15.10 16.11 ZXEVzQsPmPrQsMsRsPrOrQ9P9R6MoMmMmOnOkPmNmMfQmOmQ8OqQxOuOnQqPwMoNpQ|3 17.11 18.12 19 CR4.12 20.13 21 2022 CR5 52%.13 22 ODFL/.13 23 ODFL/.13 24.13 25.13 26 ODFL 2006-2022 CAGR.14 27 ODFL.14 28 ODFL 10%.14 29 ODFL.14 30 ODFL.15 31 ODFL.15 32 ODFL.15 33 FedEx UPS.16 34 UPS 3.7%2020.17 35 UPS.17 36.17 37 FedEx 6%ODFL 10%.17 38 FedEx ODFL UPS.17 39 GDP%.18 40 1999-2022.18 41 CR4 2016-2017.19 42 ODFL.19 43 CR10.20 44/22.20 45 ODFL/.20 46 22.21 47/.21 48.21 49 TOP10 21.23 50 TOP10 22.23 51“+”22.23 52.24 53.24 54.25 55.26 56/.26|4 57.26 58 22.27 59 23.27 60.28 61 22 5/.28 62.28 63.29 64.29 65 23H1 6%.30 66 22.30 67.31 68.31 69/.31 70.31 71.31 72 23H1 9.9%.32 73 23H1 191.2%.32 74.33 75.33 76.33 77“.33 1 vs vs.7 2 vs/.7 3 2022.8 4.11 5.15 6.19 7 FedEx Freight.20 8.22 9.23 10.24 11 20.24 12 21.25 13.25|5 1.1.1.30 3000 30-3000 30-500 500-3000 1 B2B GDP C|6 2 GDP 3 Wind Wind 4 vs vs Wind 1 2020 2 3+22 1.74 1.16%5+19 6 22 0%5%10%15%20%2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 YOY GDP:0%10%20%30%40%50%2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 YOY YOY|7(ATA Armstrong)Wind 1.2.VS VS 90%1 vs vs 30kg 500kg 10 300kg 500kg 8T B 90%90%80%2 vs/()0100020003000400050006000|8 20-30 2021 12 1 93 61 31 6.7%5.4%8.5%3 2022 21 4.01 1.23 3.45 2.79 2.53 2.53 157 132 136 80+100-2270 2900 2000 97000 22160 10200 3000 9600 61.46%100%100%29000 8801 30000 30000 21000 19000 1 157 2 4000+6200 3 2023 8 2023 1 90%7/2020 1006001,1001,6002,1002,600|9 8 9 1.3.22 1.74 25%1.16%23 3.36%2023 2022 5%8%10 11 15 2.9%20 6.1%22 1061 20-25 25-30 12 13 01000200030004000500060007000-10%-5%0%5%10%15%05101520252018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023E YOY|10 1=/2 2022 B2B C2M SKU B2B 2015-2020 5.57%0.60%14 15 0%1%2%3%4%5%6%7%0200400600800100012002015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2022 0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%15-20 CAGR 20-25 CAGR 25-30 CAGR|11 2022 58.2%14 47.2pcts 10 B2C 16 17 2C 18 4/2016 3 5-60kg 50kg 2019 3 2018 7+2018 7 3-60kg 2018 11 350 2018 20-100kg 2016 32kg-10%-5%0%5%10%15%2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E YOY YOY6%12%20%0%5%10%15%20%25%2015-2017 2018-20202020-0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%01000200030004000500060002017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022|12 2018 10-30kg 168(10-68kg)ToB 2.2.1.1980-2000 1980 1990 6 2 2000 Yellow Roadway Express Consolidated Freightways Con-Way Freight 18 19 CR4 Impact of Deregulation of the Trucking Industryon Small Businesses and Small Truck Owner/Operators-Batts Lana R.-2000-2022 1990s 2000s 1998-2001 FedEx Caliber System American Freightways 2002 Consolidated Freightways 2003-2004 Yellow Freight System Roadway Express Yellow Roadway USF 2005 UPS Overnite Transportation 2000 FedExFreight ODFL 22 CR5 CR10 52.21%76.68%20 0.53pcts 0.22pcts 5 0%1%1%2%2%3%3%4%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%1978 1987|13 20 21 2022 CR5 52%SJ Consulting SJ Consulting 2.2.VS 2.2.1.ODFL ODFL 1980 ODFL 2005 ODFL 2011 ODFL ODFL 2010 22 ODFL/23 ODFL/Wind Bloomberg Wind Bloomberg 2006-2022 ODFL SAIA 3.9%3.7%24 25 30.00%40.00%50.00%60.00%70.00%80.00%2019 2020 2021 2022CR5 CR10FedEx,17%ODFL,11%Yellow,9%XPO,8%Estes Express,8%其他,48%0200400600800100020062007200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022SAIA ODFL FedEx ArcBest20030040050060070080090020062007200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022SAIA ODFL FedEx ArcBest|14 Wind Bloomberg Wind Bloomberg YOY 2 2010 ODFL ODFL SAIA FedEx 26 ODFL 2006-2022 CAGR 27 ODFL Bloomberg Wind Bloomberg 2005 ODFL 10%ODFL ODFL(P&D)28 ODFL 10%29 ODFL-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%2007200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022SAIA ODFL-40%-20%0%20%40%60%2007200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022SAIA ODFL YOY4.5%3.7%5.4%3.9%4.1%3.8%0.0%1.0%2.0%3.0%4.0%5.0%6.0%SAIA ODFL FedEx-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%2007200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022SAIA ODFL FedEx ArcBest0%5%10%15%20%02004006008001,000/0%20%40%60%80%100%200520062007200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022|15 Bloomberg Bloomberg 5 2012 2022 YOY Yellow 419 308-26%FedEx Freight 366 373 2%XPO 303 294-3%ArcBest 277 239-14%TForce Freight 210 190-10%Saia 150 188 25%Total 1,725 1,592-8%ODFL 218 255 17%ODFL 2022 255 91%11274 44 30 ODFL 31 ODFL ODFL ODFL ODFL ODFL 32 ODFL 91%92%93%94%95%96%97%98%99%100%0.0%0.2%0.4%0.6%0.8%1.0%1.2%1.4%1.6%1.8%|16 Bloomberg ODFL 2.2.2.UPSvsFedEx FedEx UPS FedEx 1998 2001 Viking Freight American Freightways FedEx Freight UPS 2005 FedEx Overnite Transportation UPS 2006 2020 FedEx UPS CAGR 4.9%3.5%FedEx UPS 33 FedEx UPS Bloomberg 2021 UPS 8 36%2020 SJ Consulting FedEx Freight UPS Freight 17%7%()1 5 UPS 0%2%4%6%8%10%12%051015202530354045-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%02,0004,0006,0008,00010,00012,000FY2001FY2002FY2003FY2004FY2005FY2006FY2007FY2008FY2009FY2010FY2011FY2012FY2013FY2014FY2015FY2016FY2017FY2018FY2019FY2020FY2021FY2022FY2023FedEx Freight UPS Freight FedEx-YOY UPS-YOY|17 UPS Freight UPS 34 UPS 3.7%2020 35 UPS Bloomberg Bloomberg UPS UPS Teamsters 2000 Yellow Consolidated Freightways FedEx ODFL UPS UPS FedEx FedEx UPS 2000 FedEx 6%36 37 FedEx 6%ODFL 10%Bloomberg Bloomberg 38 FedEx ODFL UPS 63.2%18.8%14.2%3.7%0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%UPS 0%20%40%60%80%100%FY20 FY21 FY22 FY20 FY21 FY22YRC FedEx 0%5%10%15%20%FedEx ODFL|18 Bloomberg 3.3.1.GDP 39 GDP%Wind 40 1999-2022-20%0%20%40%60%80%FY2001FY2002FY2003FY2004FY2005FY2006FY2007FY2008FY2009FY2010FY2011FY2012FY2013FY2014FY2015FY2016FY2017FY2018FY2019FY2020FY2021FY2022FY2023FedEx UPS ODFL4681012141618|19 Wind 1 22 CR5 52.2%4.3%2 41 CR4 2016-2017 42 ODFL 5G 6 30KG-3T+-3%-2%-1%0%1%2%3%4%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%0%5%10%15%20%2014 2022 2014 2022 ODFL|20 68KG-4.5T-43 CR10 SJ Consulting 3.2.+FedEx ODFL OD OD OD OD 7 FedEx Freight/(LTL)1-3(LTL)3-6 1 2 3 50 1/2/3 FedEx 2022 4027 767 1844 45%ODFL 2012-2022 6.67%1.44%44/22 45 ODFL/30.0%76.7%2.6%2.9%2.9%3.5%4.2%4.4%5.7%5.9%34.4%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%1978 2022 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2030E|21 Bloomberg Bloomberg Wind+90%46 22 47/Wind Wind ODFL 48 050010001500200025003000350040004500XPO ODFL Yellow-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%010002000300040005000ODFL ODFL-YOY-YOY0%20%40%60%80%100%01002003004005002020 2021 2022ODFL SAIA|22 Wind Bloomberg 1 2 4.4.1.8 22 21 64%30%36%70%10-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%ODFL FedEx YELLOW SAIA|23+5000 49 TOP10 21 50 TOP10 22 1 2+1465 2015 2007 2017 2020 2022 89.76 66.5%22 303.7 21 13 9 2020 8 30 55%2022 7 89.76 66.50%51+22 1 TOP6 2 22 21 14%6%5%4%18%14%13%13%7%6%34%14%9%7%9%9%6%5%4%3%,52%,21%,15%,10%,2%|24 22 3 18 7 8 22 3 10 20kg+20kg 40+20-60kg 2/60kg+1.5/-30kg+30kh 96+1.4/-7 20kg+1KG+97 77+8 20kg+-17+4.2.52 53 Wind 11 20 2020 4 1:10000 2 2020 4 4 7 1.3 1.6 0.06/2020 2 7 6 2020 4 1 6000 1 9000 05001000150020002018 2019 2020 2021 2022-15.0%-10.0%-5.0%0.0%5.0%10.0%15.0%20.0%|25 2020 2 7 2020 2 5 Plus 2.5 2020 2018 0.29%0.05%0.35%0.07%86.1%87.1%0.001%2021 7 30 12 21 2021 9 2021 2022 9 2020 13 Mini 10-70kg 0-70kg 60kg 70-3000kg 70-300kg 60kg 300kg-1T 800kg 1T-3T 3-10T 3T-10T 2020-20%21 54|26 55 56/2022 23 57-30.0%-20.0%-10.0%0.0%10.0%20.0%30.0%2020 2021 2022 1.31.351.41.451.51.552018 2019 2020M4 2020 2021M4100200300400500600700800 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022|27 Wind 58 22 1 21 2 22 3 22 UPS FedEx 59 23-50.0%-40.0%-30.0%-20.0%-10.0%0.0%10.0%2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023H1|28 60 61 22 5/Wind 2002 2018 62 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%0204060801002017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 yoy 90%92%94%96%98%100%2020 2021 2022 2023H1 9%12%53%4%55%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%020406080100 2018 2022 18-22 CAGR|29 5.5.1.1996 2013 2015-2016 2018 22 7 89.76 66.50%8 5.43%22 9 71.93%100%()()()2019,9 2023 63 18 3-60kg 23 22.83 22 7.3%64|30 23 7 1.06 83 135 18300/2018 3.60 2022 200 65 23H1 6%66 22 Wind Wind 5.2.2010 2021 22 9 23H1 1.681.0522.836.860510152025 2022 2023E0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%050100150200250300350 YOY 0%1%2%3%4%5%012345678|31 1.1%0-70kg 17.5%23 94kg 13.8%23H1 854/13.1%67 68 20 23 69/70 23 6 28,000 2022 2023 95.7%98.2%71 8590951001051101150200400600800100012001400/-4%-2%0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%020040060080010002020 2021 2022 2023H1/YOY 01002003004005002018 2019 2020 2021 2022 23H1 0.000%0.010%0.020%0.030%0.040%0.050%0.060%0.000%0.001%0.001%0.002%0.002%0.003%21M1-4 22H1 23H1|32 23H1 9.9%45.5 191.2%1.59 3.7%72 23H1 9.9%73 23H1 191.2%Wind Wind 5.3.+2015 2018 3+23H1 0.7 C 23H1 201 16 23H1 30%22 279.17 2017-2022 44.7%2020-2022+23 GDP 15%94%95%95%96%96%97%97%98%98%99%99%2019 2020 2021 2022 2023H1-10%0%10%20%30%40%020406080100120 YOY-50%-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%-25-20-15-10-505|33 74 75 1 22 2 2022+0.28 104.75%1 2 23 76 2021(20KG)2021 2020 2021 22 8 77 0%20%40%60%80%100%0501001502002503002017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 23H1 YOY 05001,0001,5002,0002,5002019 2020 2021 2022/-9.08-5.820.28-10.00-8.00-6.00-4.00-2.000.002.002020 2021 2022|34 2022 6.|35/6 300 6 300 20%10%-20%-10%-10%-10%5%-5%-5%-5%B 11 100088 3 A 23 2301 570102(0898)-65365390 6 4 200086(8621)-65055515(8621)-61069806 5033 71 518000(86755)-23915663(86755)-82571995