20231023_安信证券_航天产业研究报告:卫星互联网蓄势待发_52页.pdf
1 2023 10 23-A Wind%1M 3M 12M 0.9-2.7-8.9-6.2-11.8-16.1 SAC S1450521060002 6G 2017 11 BT Neil McRae 6G 6G 5G+5G 2022 6G 6G 6G Statista 2023 7 64.5%28 Google Facebook SpaceX Starlink OneWeb 2023 7 Starlink 4800 550km 500+G60 35%COTS G60-19%-9%1%11%21%31%2022-10 2023-02 2023-06 2023-10 300/2 300 SIA 8.1%3600 1 2 3/3 1.7 1.1.7 1.2.8 1.3.8 2.9 2.1.9 2.1.1.9 2.1.2.9 2.2.9 2.2.1.9 2.2.2.9 2.2.3.10 2.2.4.10 2.3.11 2.3.1.11 2.3.2.11 3.12 3.1.12 3.2.30“”.12 3.3.OneWeb.13 3.3.1.13 3.3.2.Eutelsat Starlink.14 3.4.Starlink.14 3.4.1.Starlink.14 3.4.2.15 3.4.3.4800.16 3.4.4.16 3.4.5.17 3.4.6.18 3.4.7.SWARM.20 4.21 4.1.21 4.2.22 4.3.24 4.3.1.24 4.3.2.25 4.4.26 4.4.1.“”.27 4.4.2.“”.28 5.29 5.1.29 5.2.29 5.3.31/4 5.3.1.31 5.3.2.31 5.3.3.32 5.3.4.34 5.4.35 5.4.1.COTS.35 5.4.2.36 5.4.3.38 6.39 6.1.39 6.2.“6G=5G+”.42 6.2.1.“6G=5G+”.43 6.2.2.5G/6G.43 6.2.3.5G.43 6.3.45 6.3.1.45 6.3.2.45 7.46 7.1.46 7.2.47 7.3.48 8.49 9.50 1.7 2.8 3.8 4.8 5.10 6.10 7.10 8.Globalstar.11 9.Globalstar.11 10.Globalstar.11 11.Globalstar Sat-Fi.11 12.12 13.Oneweb.14 14.Oneweb.14 15.15 16.Starlink.15 17.Starlink.15 18.“”.16 19.“”.16/5 20.1.16 21.16 22.2023 9.17 23.18 24.18 25.19 26.19 27.Starlink.19 28.Starlink.19 29.V1.0.20 30.V2 mini.20 31.SWARM.20 32.SWARM.20 33.SWARM.21 34.SWARM.21 35.22 36.22 37.22 38.2019-2030.22 39.23 40.23 41.23 42.24 43.24 44.25 45.25 46.25 47.Mate 60 Pro.25 48.27 49.2023 7.27 50.“”.27 51.“”.27 52.”.28 53.“”“”.28 54.Oneweb.30 55.Oneweb.30 56.30 57.30 58.G60.31 59.31 60.SAMV71Q21RT.32 61.LEOLVDSRD 400Mbps LVDS.33 62.4M 8M 16M SRAM.34 63.CSOI.34/6 64.35 65.36 66.36 67.36 68.37 69.37 70.CFESat.38 71.COTS.39 72.1990-2031.40 73.2022.40 74.2022.41 75.2022.41 76.41 77.2021.41 78.42 79.42 80.“5G/6G”.43 81.5G.44 82.ITU 5G.44 83.3GPP 5G.44 84.45 85.2022.46 86.2022.46 87.46 88.47 89.48 90.48 1.7 2.7 3.9 4.13 5 Starlink.15 6.16 7.21 8.26 9.26 10.29 11.31 12 EDAC.35 13.37 14 COTS.38 15.45 16.46/7 1.1.1.Artificial Satellite 90%LEO MEO GEO LEO 500km2000km MEO 2000km36000km GEO 36000km 1 LEO 5002000km 1.5-2 MEO 200036000km 2-12 GEO 36000km 24 2 Landsat Meteor M/8 GPS 1.2.Satellite communication technology 20 90 2.1.3.IP 3.4.SpaceX/9 2.2.1.2.1.1.GEO GEO 2.1.2.60 1963 1964 SYNCOM 3 90 10.3 85%9298%5 10(-4)3 20 80-2000 Iridium Globalstar Orbcomm Teledesic Skybridge-2000-2014 Iridium Globalstar Orbcomm 2014-Starlink O3b OneWebx-2.2.2.2.1.77 785km 7 LEO 66 6 11 765KM 1.2m 2.3m 386.2kg 58 2.2.2./10 50 1990 6 1990 12 FCC 1992 9 FCC 15 2.4kb/s GSM 1998 2000 5.6.Marsat 2.2.3.Iridium Satellite LLC 2500 2001 3 28,2006 78 20 2.2.4.2007 Iridium Next 66 SpaceX 75 66 9 4.92 Iridium Next 128kbps 1.5Mbps Ka 8Mbps Iridium Next IP 5G 7.Iridium Satellite LLC/11 2.3.2.3.1.Globalstar LQSS Loral Qualcomm Satellite Service 1991 6 FCC 1997 12 16 1998 Globalstar 35 Globalstar 33 2.3.2.2010 Globalstar-2 2013 2 6 6 24 Globalstar-2 700kg 2 3 2.2kW 1.7kW 1414km 52 MSS GEO GPS 8.Globalstar 9.Globalstar Globalstar-2 WiFi Sat-Fi Sat-Fi APP Sat-Fi 8 100mW 30.5m 10.Globalstar 11.Globalstar Sat-Fi Globalstar Globalstar/12 3.3.1.3.2.30 Statista 2023 7 64.5%28 80%50%12.Statista/13 2010 Liberty Global O3b O3b Other 3 billion 30 OneWeb 2015 Google SpaceX 10 SpaceX Starlink 12000 2014 OneWeb 648 234 882 2015 SpaceX Starlink 1.2 2020 2017 Facebook PointV iew Tech LLC Athena Starlink 10 2019 4 Kuiper 3236 4 66+9 ATK 860kg 2007 2017 780km L Ka 50 O3b 16+26 700kg 2008 2014 8000km Ka 2010 12 LeoSat 108 1250kg 2015 2022 1400km Ka 36 OneWeb 648+234 OneWeb 150kg 2015 2019 1200km Ka Ku 34 Starlink 4425+7518 SpaceX 386kg 2015 2024 11101325km Ka Ku 100 4600-2015 2018 1500km V 2956-2016-1200km V Telesat 117-2016 2021 10001248km Ka Kuiper 3236-2019-590630km-Bing 3.3.OneWeb 3.3.1.OneWeb WorldV u Satellites Gregory Thane Wyler 2012 2014 OneWeb 648 234 882 1200km 2000 One Web One Web 2027 50Mbps 2016 1 OneWeb OneWeb 2017 6 25 OneWeb/14 2019 2 OneWeb 6 2020 3 OneWeb 2021 2022 12 OneWeb 450 OneWeb B2B 13.Oneweb 14.Oneweb Oneweb Oneweb 3.3.2.Eutelsat Starlink 2023 9 29 Eutelsat OneWeb(Starlink)Eutelsat Group Eutelsat 2027 20 2024 2030 7.25 8.75 Eutelsat(GEO)OneWeb(LEO)Eutelsat Group Eva Berneke:Eutelsat Group GEO-LEO 3.4.Starlink 3.4.1.Starlink 2015 SpaceX 1.2 2020 Starlink FCC 2018 3 SpaceX 4425 2018 11 FCC 7518 2020 5 SpaceX FCC 3 FCC 2022 12 7500/15 15.FCC Satellitetoday 4425 1150km 1600 2825 1110km 1130km 1275km 1325km 4425 83 5 Starlink 1600 2825 32 32 8 5 6 50 50 50 75 75 1150km 1110km 1130km 1275km 1325km 53 53.8 74 81 70 ITU SpaceX 2025 1Gbps 23Gbps 100 9 16.Starlink 17.Starlink SpaceX SpaceX 3.4.2.2018/16 SpaceX 2018 2 Microsat V0.9 V1.0 V1.5 SpaceX V2.0 6 Microsat 2018 2 386 V0.9 2019 5 Ku 227 V1.0 2019 11 V0.9 Ka 260 V1.5 2021 6 V1.0 295 V2 mini 2023 8 E 800 V2 25-3.4.3.4800 2023 7 15 5 15 G5-15 54 V1.5 V1.5 5 300 Ku 17 20 Gbps 2.1 2.5GB 2023 25 4822 2023 1156 18.19.ITU ITU 3.4.4.220 Mbps 25 Mbps 25-50 Starlink 599 110 20.1 21./17 shoshonenewspress 2022 5 SpaceX FCC 40 SpaceX 2022 14.5 2022 3 25 32 2023 22.2023 9 Starlink 3.4.5.2022 12 SpaceX Starshield SpaceX Starshield 1/18 2 3 SpaceX CNBC 2023 9 U.S.Space Force SpaceX 7000 Starshield 1 23.24.SpaceX SpaceX 3.4.6.1/19 25.26.Starlink Starlink 2 T-Mobile 2.0 2023 10 Starlink Direct to Cell LTE SpaceX T-Mobile 2024 2025 Data IOT 27.Starlink 28.Starlink Starlink Starlin T-Mobile SpaceX V2.0 V2.0 7 Starship 9 V2.0 V2.0 Ku Ka 25 PCS mid-band PCS spectrum PCS 2-4 Mbits/20 2023 8 11 22 V2 Mini V2 Mini V1.5 4 V1.5 V2 Mini E V2 Mini 800 V1.5 V2 Mini 4.1 V2 Mini 30 V2 Mini 116 V1.5 4 V2 V2 Mini 29.V1.0 30.V2 mini SpaceX Spaceexplored 3.4.7.SWARM 2021 8 SpaceX Swarm SpaceX Swarm FCC Swarm 11 x 11 x 2.8 400 31.SWARM 32.SWARM SpaceX SpaceX/21 Starlink Swarm IoT Swarm Swarm Tile 119 5 33.SWARM 34.SWARM Swarm Swarm 4.4.1.Oneweb SpaceX Google Facebook SpaceX Starlink 42000 31467 5001500km Ka Ku V 7 Ka 30 16158 LeoSat 100 OneWeb 648 Starlink 12000 O3b 27 Telesat 117 Kuiper 3236 Ku OneWeb 234 7753 Starlink 7518 V 2956 7556 4600 Bing/22 4.2.Cellular Mobile Communication 4G CSDN 2022 1083 87 5G 231.2 5G 88.7 21.3%4G 37.38.2019-2030 550km 506km 64/23 39.40.SpaceX Statista 50%70%90%41./24 4.3.4.3.1.2017 Ka 16 20Gbps 2016 1.2Kbps 384Kbps 42.43./25 4.3.2.2016 8 6 01 S 2020 11 12 2021 1 20 02 03 3 1740 44.45.2018 2023 8 Mate 60 Pro 46.47.Mate 60 Pro/26 S 2170-2200MHz 1980-2010MHz TDD-LTE Band 38 39 40 2570-2620MHz 1880-1920MHz 2300-2400MHz S 4.4.2016 12 2020 4 5G 2021 4 28 2023 7 9 2023 10 8 8 2016 12 2018 12 2020 4 5G 2021 4 2022 3 6 2023 7 2023 10 2018 80 2018 A IDG 1%9 300 2018 12 200 156 2018 12 100 80/27-1000 35-800 30 60 32 36 40 G60 1296 Bing 48.49.2023 7 4.4.1.1 300 200 50.51./28 2 2018 12 29 CAST5 L/Ka 4.4.2.1 156 1000km 2 2018 12 22 2022 3S AIS/ADS-B/DCS AIS ADS-B DCS 52.53./29 5.5.1.1997-1999 Iridium Globalstar Orbcomm 66 50 2007 2 IridiumNEXT 2 66 30 60%SpaceX 100/5000/9 60/SpaceX COO Starlink 50 1500 4.2 Starlink 210 105 10/kg 1998 5139 7 670 2017 3750 10 9 860 2000 3700 6 450 2010 1700/6-8 700 2019 OneWeb 50-100/36 125 2019 StarLink 50-100/60 9 227 5.2.1400 2600 4000 OneWeb OneWeb 16 648 2015 50/30 54.Oneweb 55.Oneweb Bing Bing 2021 11 26 G60 G60 120 20 300/35%2023 152 1 500 200 2021 1 40%240 56.57./31 2022 200 2019 58.G60 59.5.3.5.3.1.TID(Total Ionizing Dose)SEE(Single-Event Effect)SEU(Single-Event Upset)SEL(Single-Evcnt Latchup)11 TID()Rad SEE SEU(Single-Event Upset)SEU(softerror)SEL(Single-Evcnt Latchup)(1atch up)CMOS SEL(harderror)5.3.2.Radiation Harden By Process,RHBP Radiation Harden By Design,RHBD SOI SOS/32 5.3.3.1 Microchip Technology Inc.2019 Arm SAMV71Q21RT SAMRH71 COTS SAMV71 SAMV71Q21RT SAMRH71 Arm Cortex-M7 SoC SAMV71 COTS SAMV71Q21RT COTS COTS SAMV71Q21RT SAMRH71 SAMV71Q21 RT 30 Krad Si TID 60.SAMV71Q21RT 2 QML ESCC/33(STMicroelectronics)(LEO)2022 3 LEO 61.LEOLVDSRD 400Mbps LVDS 3 IP ASIC FPGA AD/DA SRAM 65nm IP SOI SOI ESD SOI SRAM 300krad(Si)0.18 m 0.35 m SOI CMOS SOI/34 62.4M 8M 16M SRAM SOI SOI 2022 SOI CSOI SRAM 9 Mrad(Si)99.8 MeV*cm2/mg SRAM 63.CSOI 5.3.4.Error Detection And Correction EDAC EDAC EDAC EDAC EDAC EDAC EDAC EDAC EDAC EDAC EDAC EDAC BCH RS/35 EDAC ECU EDAC EDAC 12 EDAC EDAC RS 5.4.5.4.1.COTS(Commercial-off-the-shelf COTS)COTS COTS/70 2021 BAE RAD 5545 45 nm SOI 64./36 1994 65.35 5.4.2.1 66 66.67.COTS COTS 采购价格低 COTS COTS 性能优越 COTS 资源广泛 COTS/37 2 67 3 FPGA 68 3 1 2 2 68.69.COTS COTS 4 69 5 COTS 13 COTS COTS SRAM FPGA DSP CPU 13 COTS COTS EDAC SRAM FPGA FPGA FPGA FPGA FPGA DSP CPU COTS/38 5.4.3.COTS COTS COTS COTS 90 COTS NASA COTS ARGOS TACSA T-2 CFESat CFESat 2007(560 km)SRAM FPGA FPGA Xilinx XQVR1000 SEL SEL LET 125 MeV/mg/cm2 TID 100 K Rad(Si)FPGA 70.CFESat On-orbitflight results from the reconfigurable cibola flight experimentsatellite COTS COTS 14 COTS COTS Alsat-1 2002/SRAM TMR+Hamming RS 256,252 SEU 3.67*10-7 SEU/bit/day MDS-1 2002 COTS64 Mb DRAM RS 16,12 SEU bit 2 bit 3 bit TacSat2 2006 SRAM FPGA DSP SDRAM FPGA FPGA FPGA DSP/39 ECC CFES at 2007 SRAM FPGA FPGA Half-Latch TMR 2.4SEU Sumbandilasat 2009 SRAM CPU SRAM EDAC Latch-up 2009 9 2011 7 1.04 COTS COTS 2015 2016 COTS COTS COTS PC104 COTS COTS 71.COTS COTS 6.6.1.Euroconsult 2022 1030 2021 9%2020-2021 550 54%2022 480 46%Euroconsult 2031/40 72.1990-2031 Euroconsult 2022 60%620 119 49 42 34 73.2022 Euroconsult Euroconsult Space Economy Report 2022 59%120 4%60%38%BtoB BtoC 2%/41 74.2022 75.2022 Space Economy Report 2022 Space Economy Report 2022 UCS 2019 5 SpaceX 2022 8 3009 2750 2021 1624 76.UCS 2021 2021 92.5%51 403.34 55 115 191.19 85.5%77.2021 2021 LEOMEO/HEO/GTO非地球轨道发射次数(次)载荷数量(个)载荷质量(吨)载人航天器空间探测器导航卫星通信卫星遥感卫星科学和技术试验卫星总数量(个)总质量(吨)美国 43 6 2 51 1335 403.34 8 3 1 1356 86 88 1542 448.26中国 41 14 55 115 191.19 5 17 61 34 117 191.20俄罗斯 21 4 25 340 139.82 8 2 5 3 18 95.48欧洲 3 2 1 6 29 29.36 1 2 19 18 38 78 32.62日本 1 2 3 11 9.84 1 6 18 25 5.02印度 1 1 2 20 2.40 1 5 6 2.10其他 4-4 6 1.75 11 14 35 60 3.02合计 114 29 3 146 1856 777.7 21 4 4 1405 191 221 1846 777.70运载火箭发射情况 航天器研制发射情况国 家/地 区/42 iiMedia Research 2015-2021 22.3%2020 1 3 20%2022 1.5 2024 2.3 78.6.2.6G=5G+90 IP 5G 6G 5G/6G 3GPP ITU 5G/6G 79.5G/43 6.2.1.6G=5G+2017 11 BT Neil McRae 6G 5G 5G 2020+5G+5G 6G 5G+2025 5G 6G 2018 11 ITU Network 2030 ITU-T FG on Network 2030 2030 Network 2030 Richard Li 2030 Starlink OneWeb 6.2.2.5G/6G 2018 11 2019 B5G/6G 5G/6G GEO LEO GEO LEO 5G/6G 80.5G/6G 6.2.3.5G 5G ITU International Telecommunication Union 5G 1 ITU 5G 5G ITU 5G 4 NFV Network Function V irtualization/SDN Software Defined Network/44 81.5G 82.ITU 5G Bing ITU 2 3GPP 5G 3rd GenerationPartnership Project 3GPP 2017 3GPP SA1 5G New Radio,NR Non-Terrestrial Network NTN NTN R14 R16 Study Item SI/Internet of Things IoT 5G NTN NTN 12 2019 5G Work Item WI R17 83.3GPP 5G 3GPP 5G 3 6G 2022 6G 6G 6G/45 84.6G 6.3.6.3.1.66 50 100 LeoSat 108 36 300 200 156 100 G60 300 15 66 50 Starlink 12000 100 OneWeb 882 34 O3b 42 12 Leosat 108 36 300 200 156 100 Bing 6.3.2.SIA 2022 3840 2810 73.18%1030 26.82%84%10%2%1%158 5.62%70 2.49%1450 51.60%1130 40.21%8.11%G60 300 3600/46 85.2022 86.2022 SIA SIA 7.7.1.SAR 87.16 10%7%/47 30%20%40%22%88.7.2.Wifi 2023 Mate 60 Pro/48 89.wind 7.3.G60 300 1908 1487 3600 5 5 20%90.SIA/49 8./50 9.1 2 3/51 6 300 10%6 300-10%10%6 300 10%A 6 300 B 6 300/52 19 33 518026 638 3 200080 2 15 100034