20231129_东方证券_社会服务行业2024年度投资策略：静待顺周期拐点聚焦细分成长方向_26页.pdf
|11 6 38.1%24 24 ADR OCC 23 beta 23 24 23 Price in-S/2023 11 29 S0860520070001 S0860522100001 S0860523080010 021-63325888*6069 S0860517020001 BSW124 2024 2.5.5.6.9.9 2024.11.14.14 2024.16.18.18 2024.19.20.20 2024.21.24.24 WUDWzQnQnOqRrPsRnQtMoPaQaO8OnPpPtRoNeRqRmNkPpMmMaQrQnMvPnOvMuOnRsN 3 1 2022 300.5 2 2023.5 3 2023.6 4 2023.6 5 2022.6 6.7 7/19.7 8 19.7 9 19.7 10.8 11 PMI PMI%.8 12.8 13.8 14.8 15.9 16.9 17.9 18.9 19.10 19.10 20.11 21.11 23.11 24 LV.12 25.12 26.13 27.13 28.15 29.15 30 RevPAR 2019.15 31 RevPAR 2019.15 32 2022.15 33 OCC/ADR PMI.16 34 RevPAR 7.16 4 35.16 36 50 50.16 37 2022 TOP10.17 38.17 39 19.18 40 Q3.18 25 2023.19 42 vs19.20 43 2018-2022.20 44 22/11/1.21 45.21 46.21 47.22 48 2018-2022 5.22 49.22 50.22 51.23 52.23 5 2023 38.1%23/11/6 2022 12 7 35.8%300 5.8%/8.5%22 300 2023-19.2%-22.4%-28.8%-40.5%-55.2%19.9%20%-30%1 2022 300 2 2023 wind 23/11/6 wind 23/11/6 2023 30-10.5%2022 6.4%6 1 2+/PE 3 AI+8-10-70%-60%-50%-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%A-S-S-50%-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%300()6 3 2023 4 2023 wind 23/11/6 wind wind 23/11/6 5 2022 wind 23/11/7 2023 36.74 75.5%3.69 114.4%18.39 1.21 2019 2023 7.1-8.31 1.3 19 7.4%19 16.9%19/19 104.1%/101.5%-60%-50%-40%-30%-20%-10%0%-80%-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%()()()()(wind)7 6 7/19 8 19 9 19 23Q4 PMI 10 49.5 0%20%40%60%80%100%120%010002000300040005000600070002019-12019-52019-92020-12020-52020-92021-12021-52021-92022-12022-52022-92023-12023-52023-9 19%-50%-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%01000200030004000500060002019-42019-62019-82019-102019-122020-22020-42020-62020-82020-102020-122021-22021-42021-62021-82021-102021-122022-22022-42022-62022-82022-102022-122023-22023-42023-62023-82023-10 19 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%110%120%&2020 2021 2022 2023-80%-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%140%010,00020,00030,00040,00050,00060,00070,000 yoy 8 10 11 PMI PMI%12 13 14-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%2014-102015-032015-082016-012016-062016-112017-042017-092018-022018-072018-122019-052019-102020-032020-082021-012021-062021-112022-042022-092023-022023-07 303540455055602013-102014-042014-102015-042015-102016-042016-102017-042017-102018-042018-102019-042019-102020-042020-102021-042021-102022-042022-102023-042023-10PMI PMI:607080901001101201301402010/1/12010/9/12011/5/12012/1/12012/9/12013/5/12014/1/12014/9/12015/5/12016/1/12016/9/12017/5/12018/1/12018/9/12019/5/12020/1/12020/9/12021/5/12022/1/12022/9/12023/5/1 30354045505560652010-32010-92011-32011-92012-32012-92013-32013-92014-32014-92015-32015-92016-32016-92017-32017-92018-32018-92019-32019-92020-32020-92021-32021-92022-32022-92023-3%345672018-12018-42018-72018-102019-12019-42019-72019-102020-12020-42020-72020-102021-12021-42021-72021-102022-12022-42022-72022-102023-12023-42023-7(%,)9 Q2 1 2 23Q1 19 19 100%110%10 19 98.1%110.1%15 16 数据来源：航班 管家 APP，美兰 机场官 微，东方 证券研 究所 数据来源：航班 管家 APP，三亚 机场官 微，东方 证券研 究所 23 Q1 Q1 168.7+14.8%223.6+27.0%22 Q2 94.2+46.3%-44.2%149.8+84.9%-33.0%Q3 86.2+43.6%-8.5%151+91.8%+1.3%Q3 17 18 数据来源：海口 海关，东方证 券研究 所 数据来源：海口 海关，东方证 券研究 所 23 1 8000 9 5400 Q1 21 22 0501001502002503002019 2020 20212022 20230501001502002502019 2020 20212022 2023010203040506070801 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2020 2021 2022 202301020304050607080901 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2020 2021 2022 2023 10 Q3 20-22 19 Q1 23Q2 150.89+38.8%-27.3%15.65+13.9%-32.0%Q3 149.79+27.9%-0.73%13.41+94.2%-14.3%20 数据来源：公司 公告，东方证 券研究 所 Q2 32.84%-1.1pct+3.8pct Q3 34.46%+9.77pct+1.63pct 20003000400050006000700080009000100001 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023-100%-50%0%50%100%150%200%(20)0204060801001201401601802001Q21 2Q21 3Q21 4Q21 1Q22 2Q22 3Q22 4Q22 1Q23 2Q23 3Q23 yoy yoy 11 Q2 14.8%+10.8pct+4.9pct Q3 17.80%+11.35pct+3.04pct Q2 3.7%-0.3pct+1.6pct Q3 3.62%-0.36pct-0.10pct Q2 Q3 Q2 10.8%-3.9pct-0.9pct Q3 8.9%+0.3pct-1.9pct 21 22 数据来源：Wind，东方证券 研究所 数据来源：Wind，东方证券 研究所 2024 77943 23-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%0%10%20%30%40%50%12 10 27 LV 600 9 LV Alexander Wang Buccellati Celine Dior Fred 13 90 Damiani,Giorgio Armani,Hublot,Loro Piana,Ralph Lauren Tod s 24 LV 11 2019 50%Qunar 2024 2019 0.59 2023 40%25 数据来源：航班 管家，东方证 券研究 所 20 2 13 26 2020 2 2021 3 2035 2021 12 2022 1 2022 4 1 5 2 16 180 5000 10 27 23 14 RevPAR 1 Q3 Q3 12 1035 2 23Q3/()/RevPAR 19 113%/117%/129%/125%Q2 Q3 19 98%/90%3 23Q3/313/337/545 196 197/81/406 23Q3/4071/2051/2935-47/+51/+127 1 23Q3 41.56 23.03 1.61 vs19 100%103%23Q2 38.84 19.53 55.30 1.25 vs19 105%96%193%23Q3 4.52 4.04 0.04 vs19 148%115%23Q2 3.93 2.03 10.15 0.16 vs19 144%69%166%RevPAR()23Q3 190 208*278 370 vs19 113%117%129%125%23Q2 175 181 250 351 vs19 109%109%121%117%ADR()23Q3 266 277*324 530 vs19 123%130%132%125%23Q2 255 257 305 478 vs19 121%123%129%109%OCC 23Q3 71.7%74.9%*85.9%69.8%vs19 91%90%98%100%23Q2 68.7%70.5%81.8%73.3%vs19 90%89%95%107%23Q3 313 337 545 23Q1-3 898 863 1181 23Q3 116 256 139 23Q1-3 320 628 564 23Q3 197 81 406 17 23Q1-3 578 235 617 30 Q3 10929 6242 9028 213 Q3 4071 2051 2935 175 Q2-47 51 127-2 vs19 19*RevPAR/OCC/ADR 23/11/6 Q3 RevPAR/OCC/ADR 15 28 29 30 RevPAR 2019 31 RevPAR 2019 2019 100%8 3 8 price in 32 2022 wind 23/11/6 051015202530354045锦江酒店 首旅酒店 华住1Q19 2Q19 3Q19 4Q19 1Q20 2Q20 3Q204Q20 1Q21 2Q21 3Q21 4Q21 1Q22 2Q223Q22 4Q22 1Q23 2Q23 3Q23(6)(4)(2)024681012 1Q19 2Q19 3Q19 4Q19 1Q20 2Q20 3Q204Q20 1Q21 2Q21 3Q21 4Q21 1Q22 2Q223Q22 4Q22 1Q23 2Q23 3Q230%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%110%120%130%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%140%2020-012020-032020-052020-072020-092020-112021-012021-032021-052021-072021-092021-112022-012022-032022-052022-072022-092022-112023-012023-032023-052023-072023-09-50%-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%16 2024 23Q4 PMI 10 RevPAR ADR OCC 33 OCC/ADR PMI 34 RevPAR 7 wind STR:/OCC/ADR STR 2022 1426 21 OTA 35.0%38.8%2022 TOP50 21 399 439 35 36 50 50 0501001502002503003504004505002019 2020 2021 202250 50 0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%02004006008001000120014001600180020002019 2020 2021 2022 48.549.049.550.050.551.051.552.052.5-10%-8%-6%-4%-2%0%2%4%6%8%10%OCC ADR PMI 17 37 2022 TOP10 38 24 ADR OCC 23 20.4%14.6%8.5%5.5%37.6%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%2019 2020 2021 2022 18 2023 36.74 15.80 75.5%2023 12.16 46.5%2023 11.68 86.9%2023 12.90 101.9%2023 3.69 1.97 114.4%Q2 Q2 Q2 Q3 23Q3 19 148%/128.6%/143.0%Q2 Q3 23Q3 19 95.7%/96.0%/69.2%Q3 Q2 19 Q2 Q3 Q2 Q3 Q3 19 130%120%100%Q3 Q3 19 79.2%/61.3%/94.1%39 19 40 Q3 4 6 0%20%40%60%80%100%120%140%A 2023Q1-Q323Q3-2.0-1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 10.011.012.013.014.0 A 19Q3 23Q3 19 41 2023 数据来源：wind，东方证 券研究 所 注：截至 23/11/3 2024 beta 15-25 23 24-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%A 20 3 19 148%42 vs19 43 2018-2022 CCFA/23H1 25%/52%/27%/25%/32%23H1 11.9%4.1pct 2023/16.83/2.03/1.60+35%/+131%/+122%2 18H1 18H2 19H1 19H2 20H1 20H2 21H1 21H2 22H1 22H2 23H1 73.55 96.43 117.18 149.01 97.92 189.11 201.63 211.26 168.12 143.29 189.63 8.74 10.19 12.37 14.50 9.50 17.65 20.21 21.58 19.01 21.08 29.33 2.15 6.03 8.68 9.68 8.74 6.86 7.10 11.80 18.78 21.26 21.71 20.45 22.47 25.94 283.79 293.75 304.41 307.82 258.83 280.33 323.52 304.68 321.88 344.56 402.55 21.41 26.19 27.25 33.36 19.38 35.55 30.66 31.22 21.74 25.87 28.59 6.46 10.00 9.11 14.34-9.65 12.74 0.95-42.58-2.66 16.41 22.58 0.51 0.18 0.93 0.72-0.86 2.10 1.86 1.54 0.58-0.08 2.22-0.19 0.89-0.25-2.05-3.04-12.97 1.57-0.74-1.27-43.21-2.03-2.54-2.15 0.66 28.52 20.07 27.50 22.24 13.73 37.42 26.55 36.57 12.28 18.50 35.12 2.09 2.53 1.64 1.24-2.55 2.57-0.50-2.43-2.80-0.74 0.02 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%110%120%130%140%150%vs19 vs19 0%5%10%15%20%25%30%2019 2020 2021 2022 21 8.8%5.9%7.8%5.4%-9.9%4.4%0.5%-10.3%-1.6%5.3%11.9%5.8%1.0%7.5%2.7%-9.0%7.7%9.2%3.7%3.0%-0.2%7.6%-8.6%10.8%-2.9%-11.2%-34.8%-83.2%22.2%-6.3%-4.2%-203.3%-4.7%-12.4%-5.0%2.5%10.0%3.5%9.0%3.6%5.3%6.9%8.2%5.8%3.8%2.8%8.7%9.8%5.3%6.0%2.0%-13.2%4.7%-1.6%-3.9%-12.9%-1.5%0.1%wind 2022 12 22 23 44 22/11/1 wind 23/11/6 2024 1 22 23 2&CCFA 45 46&CCFA 注：门店数 量口径-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%140%160%9999788637757882019 2020 2021 2022 20230312%13%15%18%19%2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 22 1 15 2021 2023 8 80%15 20 3.7%2&CCFA 3 2023 5059 9 13273 47 48 2018-2022 5&CCFA 注：门店数 量口径 49 50 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2021 2022 2023 8 10 10-15 15-20 20-25 25 15%3%5%9%4%7%8%5%5%2%2%0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%16%0%10%20%30%40%50%2018 2022 5 PP0%50%100%150%200%250%300%350%400%01020304050607080 yoy yoy-40%-20%0%20%40%-4-202468101214 23 51 52 3 23 3 11 23 23 8 3000 11 19 8 2 70 56 23 6 11 60 02000400060008000100001200014000-500050010001500200025003000 24 Price in-S(601888)-S(01179)(ATAT.O)(600258)(002159)(603099)(603136)(300144)(LK.O)(09987)(09922)Q3(300795)(300662)25 Tabl e_Disclai mer 12 A 300 500 15%5%15%-5%+5%-5%5%-5%+5%-5%HeadertTabl e_Discl ai mer HeadertTabl e_Address 318 26 021-63325888 021-63326786 Tabl e_Disclai mer
