20231203_华创证券_人形机器人行业2024年度投资策略：奇点时刻未来已来_35页.pdf
2009 1210 2023 12 03 2024+ASIMO ASIMO 8 3 BOM 20 2030 216 3500 2022/6/1 2023/11/27 4 AI DAY Tier 1 41%300 Tier 1 2022 147 2030 487 55%2024-2030 0.2 267.4 P 2013 RV 2017 Optimus 14*+14*+2 or 4*EPS PE PB 2023E 2024E 2025E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2023E 42.40 1.03 1.21 1.60 41.13 35.11 26.44 5.29 Wind 2023 12 1 S0360523050001 S0360522080001%()299 0.04()46,764.76 5.28()38,797.13 5.65%1M 6M 12M-3.5%-18.7%-28.9%-1.0%-10.2%-18.4%20231120-20231126 10 13.62GW 2023-11-27 15GW 2028 2023-11-23 20231113-20231119 10 2023-11-20-29%-17%-5%7%22/12 23/02 23/04 23/07 23/09 23/112022-12-052023-12-01 300 2024 2009 1210 ASIMO 2030 1ZAZuNrMpMqRrPoNmRtMqR7NdNbRmOpPpNnOiNmNoMjMmMsO9PpOrQxNrQoPwMnOnO 2024 2009 1210 3.6.6.7 ASIMO.9 Atalas 8 3.10.12 AI.12.13.14.16.16 1 18 2.19.20 1.22 2 RV.23.24 1.27 2.28.29 1.31.32 2024 2009 1210 4 1.6 2.7 3.8 4.8 5.9 6 ASIMO.9 7 ASIMO.9 8 ASIMO.10 9 ASIMO.10 10.11 11.12 12.12 13.13 14.13 15.14 16.14 17.14 18 Tier 1.15 19.16 20.16 21.17 22.17 23 MITSUISEIKI GSE100/200H.18 24.18 25.19 26.19 27.19 28.20 29.20 30 Optimus.21 31.21 32 2020/2021.22 33 2022.22 2024 2009 1210 5 34.22 35.23 36.23 37.24 38.24 39.24 40 Optimus.25 41 Optimus.25 42.25 43.25 44.26 45.26 46.27 47.27 48.27 49.27 50 2018-2022.28 51.28 52.29 53.29 54 Optimus.29 55 Optimus.29 56 2021.30 57.30 58.30 59 2018-2022.31 60.31 61.32 62.32 2024 2009 1210 6 1939 Elektro 1 W AP WL WABOT 2 2000 ASIMO 8 3 Optimus C 2023 ChatGPT 2023 1 Atlas Obscura CNET Japan Atlas IEEE Salvius Hanson Robotics 2024 2009 1210 7 4 1)Atalas 2)(Tora)+3)ASIMO+4)2 3D/2024 2009 1210 8 3 oerlikon Naver Labs+4 2024 2009 1210 9 ASIMO ASIMO ASIMO Advanced Step Innovative Mobility 5 ASIMO ASIMO 1.2m 57 3 7 13 2 6 9km/h ASIMO 6 ASIMO 7 ASIMO 2024 2009 1210 10 8 ASIMO 9 ASIMO ASIMO ASIMO 2018 6 ASIMO 1)ASIMO AI ASIMO 2000 2018 2023 ChatGPT 7 AI Robotic Transformer 2 RT-2 2)ASIMO 250 2002 2000(15.24)B B 3)SIMO Atalas 8 3 1)Raibert 1980 CMU leg lab 2)1992(DAROA)3)2013 Andy Rubin 8 Schaft spot 4)2017 Schaft 2024 2009 1210 11 5)2021 8.8 80%20%10 Boston Dynamics Tech 1)2)45km/h 3)1 4)SPOT 7.45 2024 2009 1210 12 AI AI Embodied AI AI AI AI 11 AI Day 2022 JackCrum 12 CARSCOOPS Analytics india magazine Eduporium Geeky Gadgets 2024 2009 1210 13 Optimus BOM 20 13/1 3.335 16.7%2 2.800 14.0%3/2.760 13.8%4 2.520 12.6%5 1.800 9.0%6 1.600 8.0%7 1.200 6.0%8 0.634 3.2%9 0.600 3.0%10 0.560 2.8%11 0.500 2.5%12 0.406 2.0%13 1.295 6.5%20.01 100%2030 3500 2030 45.9 16.2 65%216 3506 14 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 BOM 20.0 16.7 14.3 13.3 12.3 11.5 11.1 2.00 1.67 1.43 1.33 1.23 1.15 1.11%80%84%88%92%96%96%96%40%36%32%29%26%24%21%45.9 34.2 26.4 22.4 19.2 17.2 16.2/79 79 79 79 79 79 79/0.1 1 5 17 51 139 355/0.1 1 4 12 34 88 216 YOY 900%300%200%180%162%146%/0.000 0.001 0.006 0.022 0.064 0.2 0.4/5 34 106 269 644 1517 3506 YOY 646%209%154%140%135%131%结构件17%力矩传感器14%滚柱/滚珠丝杠14%谐波减速器13%空心杯电机9%无框力矩电机8%控制器6%驱动板3%精密行星齿轮箱3%交叉滚子轴承3%控制系统其他零件2%编码器2%其他6%人形机器 人成本拆分-2024 2024 2009 1210 14 15 16 4 1)2022 68 AI Day 2)2023 56 ChatGPT 3)2023 8 Tier 1 4)2023 11 17 0.1 1 4 12 34 88 216 0%200%400%600%800%1000%0.050.0100.0150.0200.0250.02024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030/YOY5 34 106 269 644 1517 3506 0%200%400%600%800%050010001500200025003000350040002024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030/YOY 2024 2009 1210 15 wind 2023/11/27 Tier 1 Tier 1 2022 6 1 2023 11 27 42%18 Tier 1 wind 2023/11/27)0%100%200%300%400%500%鸣志电器-50.00%0.00%50.00%100.00%2022-06-01 2022-09-14 2023-01-03 2023-04-24 2023-08-10减速器指数 机器人指数 三花智控 拓普集团 双环传动 2024 2009 1210 16 32%15%14%11%5%19 20 Super 2022 2030 55%2024 2009 1210 17 21 2022 A 5%P1 22 0501001502002503003504004505002019 2020 2021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E 2028E 2029E 2030E-2024 2009 1210 18 23 MITSUISEIKI GSE100/200H 1 2022 24 12 4.5 279 70 29 5 15 24.8 2024 2009 1210 19 15 2023 4 2023 11 28 Wind 23/24/25 13.78/17.69/22.43 26%/28%/27%2.8/3.6/4.5 23%/26%/27%PE 39.8/31.5/24.9 25 26 Wind Wind 2 27 14mm-86mm 0.01mm 0.0006mm 200KG 3D 0%5%10%15%20%25%30%0.005.0010.0015.0020.0025.002021A 2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E YOY0%5%10%15%20%25%30%0.000.501.001.502.002.503.003.504.004.505.002021A 2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E YOY 2024 2009 1210 20 14mm 0.005mm 20,000 90%14mm 0.005mm 20,000 90%0.0006mm 2,000N T Ra 0.2 0.002mm 0.1mm300mm T 0.02mm 300mm 0.01mm 500 150mm 2023 11 28 Wind 23/24/25 3.99/5.29/6.88 25%/32%/30%1.2/1.6/2.1 18%/35%/27%PE 37.7/27.9/21.9 28 29 Wind Wind Optimus 28 14 6 2 2 4+3 20Nm/110Nm/180Nm 2024 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%0.001.002.003.004.005.006.007.008.002021A 2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E YOY0%20%40%60%80%100%120%0.000.501.001.502.002.502021A 2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E YOY 2024 2009 1210 21 0 1 2024-2030 0.2 267.4 30 Optimus AI Day 2022 31 人 形 机 器人 谐 波减 速 器市 场 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E 2028E 2029E 2030E 单 价（元/个）1469 1416 1346 1211 1090 981 883 单 个机器 人用量（pcs）14 14 14 14 14 14 14 人 形机器 人 年销 量（万 台）0.1 1 4 12 34 88 216 市 场空间（亿元）0.2 2.0 7.5 20.3 51.3 120.9 267.4 YoY 864%280%170%152%136%121%2020-2021/37%/21%35.5%/24.7%MIR 2022 38%/26%/8%0%100%200%300%400%500%600%700%800%900%1000%0.050.0100.0150.0200.0250.0300.02024E 2025E 2026E 2027E 2028E 2029E 2030E YoY 2024 2009 1210 22 32 2020/2021 33 2022 MIR 1 LCD/LCS/LCSG/LHD/LHS/LHSG/P 2023H1 6 117 19 98 4 3 34 LCD/LCS/LCSG LCS 30%/LHD LHD-I LHD-III/FPD/0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2020 2021,38%,26%,8%,7%,6%,4%,11%2024 2009 1210 23 LHS/LHSG LHS 30%/2023 11 28 Wind 23/24/25 3.96/5.67/8.44-11%/43%/49%1.18/1.74/2.49-24%/48%/43%PE 222/150/105 35 36 Wind Wind 2 RV RV 1980 2013 RV 2017 2020 SHPR-E SHPR-C 50 3kg-1000kg-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%0.001.002.003.004.005.006.007.008.009.002021A 2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E YOY-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%140%0.000.501.001.502.002.503.002021A 2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E YOY 2024 2009 1210 24 37 2023 11 28 Wind 23/24/25 84.2/102.7/123 23.2%/21.9%/19.8%8.1/10.6/13.5 39%/31%/27%PE 28.9/22.1/17.3 38 39 Wind Wind Optimus 14*+14*+2 or 4*0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%50%0204060801001201402020 2021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E YoY0%100%200%300%400%500%600%02468101214162020 2021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E YoY 2024 2009 1210 25 40 Optimus 41 Optimus AI Day 2022 AI Day 2022 42 43 2024 2009 1210 26 44 1)OZ F OZ 2)F P O F F X Y Z Fx Fy Fz 3)(Fx Fy Fz)(Mx My Mz)F P Fx Fy Fz Mx My Mz 45 2024 2009 1210 27 1 2012 58%2022 19.1 2.0%1.93 37.2%1.78 38.4%2023 11 28 Wind 23/24/25 22.60/26.71/30.76 19%/18%/15%2.5/3.1/3.6 30%/22%/17%PE 106/87/74 46 47 Wind 48 49 Wind Wind-5%0%5%10%15%20%0.005.0010.0015.0020.0025.0030.0035.002021A 2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E YOY-50%-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%0.000.501.001.502.002.503.003.504.002021A 2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E YOY 2024 2009 1210 28 2 1995 OIML NTEP 2022 10.6 2.9%2.6 3.6%1.7 9.8%2023 11 28 Wind 23/24/25 12.18/14.91/18.21 15%/22%/22%3.15/3.94/4.86 21%/25%/23%PE 32/25/20 50 2018-2022 51 Wind 2024 2009 1210 29 52 53 Wind Wind Optimus 5 11 20 9KG 54 Optimus 55 Optimus AI Day 2022 Tesla Optimus Dr.F.Faulhaber 1958 0%5%10%15%20%25%0.002.004.006.008.0010.0012.0014.0016.0018.0020.002021A 2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E YOY-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%0.001.002.003.004.005.006.002021A 2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E YOY 2024 2009 1210 30 QY research Global Coreless DC Motors Market Research Report 2022 2021 55.43%56 2021 QY research Global Coreless DC Motors Market Research Report 2022 8mm 6V 13500rpm 6.6ms 0.60mNm Faulhaber 57 DCU08017P06-S002&PG08C-0016 Faulhaber 0816K006SR mm 8 8 V 6 6 rpm 13500 13500 ms 6.6 6.5 mNm 0.60 0.69 Faulhaber Maxon Maxon 2 58 Maxon ECX SPEED 16 L ECH16056H36-S001 V 36 36 mm 16 16 2024 2009 1210 31 W 80 75 mNm 15.4 14.3 2510 1358 Maxon 1 LED 2022 29.6 9.05%2.47 11.58%2.34 9.36%59 2018-2022 60 Wind 2023 11 28 Wind 23/24/25 32.60/41.10/52.23 10%/26%/27%2.3/3.7/5.4-7%/59%/47%PE 134/85/57 2024 2009 1210 32 61 62 wind wind 0%5%10%15%20%25%30%0.0010.0020.0030.0040.0050.0060.002021A 2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E YOY-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%0.001.002.003.004.005.006.002021A 2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E YOY 2024 2009 1210 33/2022 5 2 2022 2022 2 2022 1 2 2022 2022 2022 2023 2023 2024 2009 1210 34 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-66500808 010-66500821 010-63214682 0755-82828570 0755-83715428 0755-82756804 0755-82871425 0755-82871425 021-20572536 021-20572555 021-20572257-2552 021-20572506 021-20572585 021-20572509 021-20572548 021-20572573 0755-82756805 021-20572559 021-20572559 0755-82756805 021-20572559 玙 021-25072549 2024 2009 1210 35 A 300 500/6 20%6 10%20%6-10%10%6 10%20%3-6 5%3-6-5%5%3-6 5%26 C 3A 1061 A 19 33 12 100033 518034 200120 010-66500801 0755-82027731 021-20572500 010-66500900 0755-82828562 021-20572522
