2009 1210 2023 12 06 2024 2023 1 2023 2 2023 12 5 PE TTM 11.4 2024 1 2023 2024 210-220GW 14%-19%2 2023 2024 70-80GW 35%3 2023 IRA 2024 2024 45-55GW 38%69%4 2024 2024 420-455GW 13%-22%1 2024 1300-1500GW N 2024 N 900GW 65%2024 12.6-13.1/d 600+GW 2024 90-94 800GW 2 2024 550GW 2024 1080GW+560-600GW 2024 N 500-550GW P 2024 TOPCon HJT xBC 2024 TOPCon PERC 450GW 50%-60%HJT 40-50GW 5%2024 HPBC+ABC 40GW 5%N 60%2024 1 2 3 HJT S0360522080001 S0360522100003%()38 0.00()11,487.39 1.30()9,127.37 1.33%1M 6M 12M-6.8%-28.5%-45.1%-4.3%-19.9%-34.5%20231120-20231126 10 13.62GW 2023-11-27 20231113-20231119 10 2023-11-20 20231106-20231112 2023-11-13-44%-27%-10%7%22/12 23/02 23/04 23/07 23/09 23/112022-12-052023-12-01 300 2024 2009 1210 2023 2024 2024 2024 IRA 2024 6 5 11 2024 45-55GW 38%69%TOPCon HJT xBC 2024 N 60%1 2 3 HJT ZXEVuNsPsRrQqOmPqNtMrQ7NbP9PpNmMpNmPeRpOtRfQmMsN7NmMwPuOsQnNwMnOxP 2024 2009 1210 3 2023.6 2023.6.6 1 PE 16.4X 0.1%.6 2 PE 11.4X 0.05%.7 2024.9.9 1.9 2 2024.10.11 1.11 2.12 3.15 4.17 5.18 6 2024 420-455GW 13%-22%.19.20 1.20 2.21 3 P N.21 4.23 5.23 6.26 7 2024.27 TOPCon HJT xBC.28.28 2024 N 60%.29.30.30 2024 2009 1210 4 1 2023.6 2.7 3.7 4 PE-Band.8 5 PE-Band.8 6 PE-Band.8 7 PE-Band.8 8 PE-Band.8 9 PE-Band.8 10 10 13.62GW 141%.9 11 1-10 142.56GW 145%.9 12 2023Q1-3 52%GW.9 13 97GW 2023.10 14.10 15 2024 210-220GW+14%19%.11 16 10 20.6GW 48%.11 17 10 193.0 20%.11 18 10 16.0GW 17%.12 19 10 39.9 41%.12 20 9 2.87GW+21%.12 21 2023 1-9 22.6GW+30%.12 22 2022.13 23 4.75%.13 24 0.15$/W 1pct 0.85-0.95pct.13 25 2023 1-9 41.72GW+76%.14 26 2024 1MW 37.0GW.14 27 2024 45-55GW 38%-69%.15 28 2023 10 9.16-50%.15 29 2023 10 6.45GW-9%.15 30 2023 1-9 35GW.16 31 2023 10 1.23GW+73%.16 32 2023 1-10 11.71GW+84%GW.16 33 2023 1-9 3.3GW+3%GW.17 2024 2009 1210 5 34 2023 1-9 832MW+97%MW.17 35 2024 70-80GW+35%.17 36 2023 10 0.24GW-71%.18 37 2023 1-10 8.72GW-29%.18 38 2023 9 0.43GW-73%.18 39 2023 1-9 10.23GW+49%.18 40 2024 420-455GW 13%-22%.19 41 2023/2024 158/241.20 42 2024 20 43 2023/2024 616/750GW.21 44 2023/2024 376/505GW.21 45 2023/2024 451/589GW.22 46 2024 N 518549GW.22 47 2023/2024 510/635GW.23 48 2024 446GW.23 49.24 50 2024 12.6-13.1 t/d.24 51 2023 1-11 1.94/.25 52 2024 3389-3462 600GW.25 53 2024 9094.26 54 2024 72.974.7 800GW.26 55 2024 GW.27 56 2024.27 57 2024 GW.28 58 2024.28 59.28 60 2024 N 900GW GW.29 61 2024 TOPCon PERC GW.29 62 2024 N 60%.29 63.30 2024 2009 1210 6 2023 2023 2023 1 2023 1 2 2023 2 1 2023 Wind 2023/12/05 1 PE 16.4X 0.1%2023 12 5 PE TTM 16.4 0.1%PE TTM 35.6 55.4%2024 2009 1210 7 2 iFinD 2016 2023 12 05 2 PE 11.4X 0.05%2023 12 5 PE TTM 11.4 0.05%/II/II/PE TTM 30/38/19/24/19 86%/62%/4%/4%/0.05%3 iFinD 2016 2023 12 05 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%020406080100120140160180200 0.0%10.0%20.0%30.0%40.0%50.0%60.0%70.0%80.0%90.0%100.0%020406080100120140160180 2024 2009 1210 8 4 PE-Band 5 PE-Band iFinD iFinD 6 PE-Band 7 PE-Band iFinD iFinD 8 PE-Band 9 PE-Band iFinD iFinD 05,00010,00015,00020,00025,00030,00035,00040,00045,000 12.28X 28.26X44.24X 60.23X 76.21X05,00010,00015,00020,00025,00030,00035,000 18.34X 33.22X48.09X 62.97X 77.85X0.0020.0040.0060.0080.00100.00120.00 48.99X 39.43X29.87X 20.31X 10.74X0.0050.00100.00150.00200.00250.00300.00 38.67X 30.21X21.76X 13.30X 4.85X0.0050.00100.00150.00200.00250.00300.00350.00400.00 60.70X 48.76X36.81X 24.86X 12.92X0.0010.0020.0030.0040.0050.0060.0070.0080.0090.00 58.21X 48.25X38.29X 28.33X 18.37X 2024 2009 1210 9 2024 1 2023 10 13.62GW+141%-14%2023 1-10 142.56GW+145%10 10 13.62GW 141%11 1-10 142.56GW 145%2023 48%/52%2023Q1-3 61.79GW 258%67.14GW 90%2023Q1-3 32.98GW 99%34.16GW 82%12 2023Q1-3 52%GW-100%0%100%200%300%400%500%05101520252021/022021/032021/042021/052021/062021/072021/082021/092021/102021/112021/122022/022022/032022/042022/052022/062022/072022/082022/092022/102022/112022/122023/022023/032023/042023/052023/062023/072023/082023/092023/10 GW)0%20%40%60%80%100%120%140%160%180%200%0.020.040.060.080.0100.0120.0140.0160.01-2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2021 2022 2023 2023-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%140%160%0204060801001201402013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023Q1-3新增分布 式装机 新增集中 式装机 分布式占 比 装机增速 2024 2009 1210 10 2 2024 2023 2021 11 97GW 53GW 2023 7 2023 2022 2 455GW 13 97GW 2023 43.67GW-20.55GW 53.38GW-32.03GW 97.05GW 455GW 52.68GW 284GW 37GW 134GW 2023 11 2023 9 10 4 982MW 9 18 8.58GW 10 13 50MW 14/2023 9 18 8.58GW 2.6GW 2023 9 10 13 50MW 2023 9 10 4 982MW 2024 2023/160%/80%/85%2023 180-190GW 106%-117%2024/2024 2009 1210 11 0%/20%/40%2024 210-220GW 14%-19%15 2024 210-220GW+14%19%1 2023 1-10 209.7GW 36%10 20.6GW 48%7%2023 1-10 2713.5 3%10 193.0 20%20%16 10 20.6GW 48%17 10 193.0 20%2023 1-10 214GW 61%10 16GW 17%1-10 614.2 33%10 39.9 41%14%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%140%0501001502002502013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023E 2024E(GW)-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%140%0.005.0010.0015.0020.0025.0030.002019/012019/042019/072019/102020/012020/042020/072020/102021/012021/042021/072021/102022/012022/042022/072022/102023/012023/042023/072023/10(GW)-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%140%0.0050.00100.00150.00200.00250.00300.00350.00400.002019/012019/042019/072019/102020/012020/042020/072020/102021/012021/042021/072021/102022/012022/042022/072022/102023/012023/042023/072023/10()2024 2009 1210 12 18 10 16.0GW 17%19 10 39.9 41%2 EIA 2023 1-9 22.6GW+30%9 2.87GW+21%+7%UFLPA 2022 2023 20 9 2.87GW+21%21 2023 1-9 22.6GW+30%EIA EIA 2022 7 5.5%10 5 4.88%4.75%-50%0%50%100%150%200%250%0510152025302019/012019/052019/092020/012020/052020/092021/012021/052021/092022/012022/052022/092023/012023/052023/09 GW-100%-50%0%50%100%150%200%250%01020304050607080902019/012019/042019/072019/102020/012020/042020/072020/102021/012021/042021/072021/102022/012022/042022/072022/102023/012023/042023/072023/10-50%0%50%100%150%200%250%300%0.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.5 GW 0.0%5.0%10.0%15.0%20.0%25.0%30.0%35.0%40.0%45.0%50.0%0.005.0010.0015.0020.0025.0030.001 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2021 2022 2023 2023年增速 2024 2009 1210 13 22 2022 23 4.75%Wind Wind 2023 11 22/44%/47%/11%70%5.5%0.15$/W 1pct 0.85-0.95pct 1 0.33$/W+5.5%4.9%2 22 22 0.325$/W+0.5%8.2%1 0.13$/W+4.75%14.1%2 22 22 0.275$/W+0.5%9.9%0.25/W 1%/2%10.5%/9.8%5 11 24 0.15$/W 1pct 0.85-0.95pct$/W 0.10 0.15 0.20 0.25 0.30 0.35 0.40 0.45 0.5%21.08%16.62%13.38%10.92%8.98%7.41%6.10%5.00%1.0%20.53%16.15%12.96%10.54%8.63%7.09%5.80%4.71%1.5%19.99%15.67%12.54%10.16%8.29%6.76%5.50%4.42%2.0%19.45%15.20%12.12%9.79%7.94%6.45%5.20%4.14%2.5%18.92%14.74%11.71%9.42%7.61%6.13%4.91%3.86%3.0%18.39%14.28%11.31%9.05%7.27%5.83%4.62%3.59%3.5%17.86%13.82%10.91%8.70%6.95%5.52%4.33%3.32%4.0%17.34%13.38%10.52%8.34%6.62%5.22%4.05%3.05%4.5%16.82%12.93%10.13%7.99%6.30%4.92%3.77%2.79%5.0%16.31%12.50%9.75%7.65%5.99%4.63%3.50%2.53%5.5%15.80%12.07%9.37%7.31%5.68%4.35%3.23%2.27%0.00%1.00%2.00%3.00%4.00%5.00%6.00%7.00%8.00%2001/012002/012003/012004/012005/012006/012007/012008/012009/012010/012011/012012/012013/012014/012015/012016/012017/012018/012019/012020/012021/012022/012023/01:5:0.00%1.00%2.00%3.00%4.00%5.00%6.00%7.00%2001/012002/012003/012004/012005/012006/012007/012008/012009/012010/012011/012012/012013/012014/012015/012016/012017/012018/012019/012020/012021/012022/012023/01:()2024 2009 1210 14 6.0%15.31%11.65%9.00%6.98%5.38%4.06%2.96%2.02%6.5%14.82%11.23%8.64%6.66%5.08%3.79%2.70%1.77%IRA 2022 8 2022 ITC 10 2032 30%ITC PTC 2023 5 IRA IRA 2024 6 2022 6“”180 2023 1-9 41.72GW+76%EIA 2023 10 12 1MW 11.7GW 2024 37.0GW 25 2023 1-9 41.72GW+76%26 2024 1MW 37.0GW EIA 1MW 2023 2023 10 12 2024 2023 11 2030 3 IRA 24 2024 45-55GW 38%-69%-100%-50%0%50%100%150%200%250%0.001.002.003.004.005.006.002021/012021/032021/052021/072021/092021/112022/012022/032022/052022/072022/092022/112023/012023/032023/052023/072023/09 GW 05101520253035402023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030(GW)2024 2009 1210 15 27 2024 45-55GW 38%-69%EIA SEIA 3 2023 1 10 9.16-50.0%-27.0%1-10 187.77-8.2%2 10 6.45GW-8.7%-17.1%1-10 93.11GW+24.6%2022 28 2023 10 9.16-50%29 2023 10 6.45GW-9%1.2 2023 1-9 35GW-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%0.010.020.030.040.050.060.02015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023E 2024E(GW)-100%-50%0%50%100%150%200%0.005.0010.0015.0020.0025.0030.0035.0040.0045.0050.002019/012019/052019/092020/012020/052020/092021/012021/052021/092022/012022/052022/092023/012023/052023/09-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%140%160%180%0.002.004.006.008.0010.0012.0014.002019/012019/042019/072019/102020/012020/042020/072020/102021/012021/042021/072021/102022/012022/042022/072022/102023/012023/042023/072023/10(GW)2024 2009 1210 16 30 2023 1-9 35GW PVInfoLink IEA SPE Bundesnetzagentur REE SDES JPEA 1.2 Bundesnetzagentur 2023 10 1.23GW+73%+17%2023 1-10 11.71GW+84%8 2023 9GW 2023 8(Entwurf Solarpaket I)1 2023-2026 9GW/13GW/18GW/22GW 2 600W 800W 2024 800W 3 31 2023 10 1.23GW+73%32 2023 1-10 11.71GW+84%GW Bundesnetzagentur Bundesnetzagentur 0510152025303540051015202530 GW GW GW-100%-50%0%50%100%150%200%0.00.20.40.60.81.01.21.41.62020/032020/062020/092020/122021/032021/062021/092021/122022/032022/062022/092022/122023/032023/062023/09 GW 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%024681012141 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2021 2022 2023 2023 2024 2009 1210 17 REE 2023 1-9 3.3GW+3%2023 9 72MW+25%-1%2023 1-9 832MW+97%33 2023 1-9 3.3GW+3%GW 34 2023 1-9 832MW+97%MW REE 2022 5 REPowerEU 2030 45%2025 320GW 2030 600GW 40%-50%2023 55-60GW 40%2024 70-80GW 35%35 2024 70-80GW+35%SPE Bundesnetzagentur REE SDES 4 CEA 2023 10 72.0GW 2023 1-10 8.72GW-29%10 0.24GW-71%+39%2022 4 40%/25%-50.0%-40.0%-30.0%-20.0%-10.0%0.0%10.0%20.0%30.0%40.0%50.0%60.0%0.000.501.001.502.002.503.003.504.004.505.001 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2021 2022 2023 2023 0%20%40%60%80%100%120%140%160%180%01002003004005006007008009001 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2021 2022 2023 2023 0%20%40%60%80%100%120%01020304050607080902016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023E 2024E GW%2024 2009 1210 18 14(NEP14)2026 2027 185.6GW2031 2032 364.6GW 2023/2024 10-12/14-16GW-20%/+35%36 2023 10 0.24GW-71%37 2023 1-10 8.72GW-29%CEA CEA 5 Absolar 2023 9 34.2GW 2023 1-9 10.23GW+49%9 0.43GW-73%-63%2022 14.300 5MW 2023-2045 2023 TUSD 2023 13-14GW 30%2024 15-17GW 20%38 2023 9 0.43GW-73%39 2023 1-9 10.23GW+49%Absolar Absolar-200%0%200%400%600%800%1000%0.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.52020/012020/042020/072020/102021/012021/042021/072021/102022/012022/042022/072022/102023/012023/042023/072023/10 GW-45%-40%-35%-30%-25%-20%-15%-10%-5%0%02468101214161 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2021 2022 2023 2023-200%-100%0%100%200%300%400%500%600%700%800%900%0.00.20.40.60.81.01.21.41.61.82.02021/012021/032021/052021/072021/092021/112022/012022/032022/052022/072022/092022/112023/012023/032023/052023/072023/09 GW 0%100%200%300%400%500%600%700%800%900%0.002.004.006.008.0010.0012.001 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2021 2022 2023 2023 2024 2009 1210 19 6 2024 420-455GW 13%-22%2023 2023 2023/180-190/55-60/30-35GW 110%/40%/30%365-380GW 52%-58%2024 420-455GW 13%-22%40 2024 420-455GW 13%-22%/2021 2022 2023E 2023E 2024E 2024E 54.9 87.4 180 190 210 220 YoY 59%106%117%14%19%28.1 41.4 55 60 70 80 YoY 47%33%45%22%39%26.3 24.9 30 35 45 55 YoY-5%20%40%38%69%11.9 14.0 10 12 14 16 YoY 17%-28%-14%27%45%5.6 10.6 13 14 15 17 YoY 88%23%32%11%26%48.1 61.7 77 69 66 67 YoY 28%25%12%-10%-8%175 240 365 380 420 455 YoY 37%52%58%13%22%SPE IEA CEA Absolar Bundesnetzagentur REE SDES 2024 2023 2024 2009 1210 20 1 2021-2022 Solarzoom 300 Solarzoom 2023 240 120 2024 360-380 2024/172/241 41 2023/2024 158/241 2020 2021 2022 2023E 2024E 25.4 42.0 64.5 112 172 36.4 57.0 88.0 158 241 15 15 15 15 15 60.8 77.4 134.1 255 360380 YoY 27%73%90%41%49%CPIA Solarzoom 2023 2023 161+61%2.6g/W 2023 600GW 500GW 2023 2024 2023/2024 100/147 386/588GW 2023/2024 83%/107%2024 42 2024 2020 2021 2022 2023E 2024E 24 26 50 85 132 31 36 69 120 190 13 14 14 15 15 52.1 64.2 100.1 161.0 260280 YoY 23%56%61%61%74%g/W 2.8 2.7 2.7 2.6 2.5+(GW)129 146 237 386 588 83%107%+(GW)156 183 309 519 820 112%149%(GW)186 238 371 619 10401120 CPIA Solarzoom 2024 2024 2009 1210 21 2 2024 1400-1500GW Solarzoom 2023/2024 1113/1400-1500GW 616/750GW CR5 50%-54%43 2023/2024 616/750GW GW 2020 2021 2022 2023E 2024E 160 226 338 455 565 CR3 65%54%51%41%38%40%196 288 418 616 750 CR5 79%69%63%55%50%54%247 415 664 1113 14001500 YoY 68%60%68%26%35%CPIA Solarzoom 2023/2024 376GW/505GW 2023/2024 81%/92%2024 505GW 700GW 44 2023/2024 376/505GW GW 2020 2021 2022 2023E 2024E 117 147 193 289 382 62%69%137 183 260 376 505 81%92%168 233 381 557 672720 YoY 39%64%46%21%29%CPIA Solarzoom 2024 2024 2024 80%3 P N 2023 TOPCon HJT xBC N 2024 2023/2024 1173/1441GW+101%/23%2023/2024 NP 451/589GW CR5 40%2024 2009 1210 22 45 2023/2024 451/589GW GW 2020 2021 2022 2023E 2024E 77 118 184 290 380 CR3 31%28%32%25%25%27%107 185 269 451 589 CR5 43%44%46%38%38%41%249 424 583 1173 14311531 YoY 70%38%101%22%31%P 249 424 490 497 496 YoY 70%16%1%0%N-93 676 9351035 YoY 628%38%53%CPIA Solarzoom 2023/2024 279GW/425GW 2023/2024 60%/77%2024 N N 100%P 70%-80%20%-30%425GW 2024 880-930GW 2024 N 518-549GW 2023 N 676GW 148GW HPBC 15GW 2024 N 935-1035GW 518-549GW N 60%46 2024 N 518549GW GW 2020 2021 2022 2023E 2024E 61 83 119 194 281 42%51%84 117 182 279 425 60%77%163 224 366 513 880-930 YoY 37%64%40%72%77%P 163 224 350 365 362-382 YoY 37%56%4%-1%+5%N-19 148 518-549 YoY 684%250%271%N 5%29%59%60%CPIA Solarzoom 2024 N 100%P 70%-80%20%-30%HPBC N 2024 2009 1210 23 4 2023/2024 1125/1385GW 2023/2024 45%47 2023/2024 510/635GW GW 2020 2021 2022 2023E 2024E 95 150 220 335 415 CR3 30%32%32%30%29%31%131 219 302 510 635 CR5 41%47%44%45%44%48%320 465 683 1125 13351435 YoY 45%47%65%22%31%CPIA Solarzoom 2024 2023/2024 314GW/446GW 2023/2024 68%/81%2024 70%-80%20%-30%446GW 716-816GW 48 2024 446GW GW 2020 2021 2022 2023E 2024E 59 89 134 217 292 47%53%86 124 192 314 446 68%81%164 221 347 494 716-816 YoY 35%57%42%45%65%CPIA Solarzoom 2024 2024 2024 80%5 2024 2009 1210 24 49 2023 1-11 1.94/2023 10.6/d 10/d 2024 12.613.1 t/d 21%2024 66%50 2024 12.6-13.1 t/d t/d 2020 2021 2022 2023E 2024E 1.9 2.7 4.5 6.0 7.1 YoY 44%66%31%19%2.3 3.2 5.6 7.1 8.5 YoY 40%74%28%19%3.7 4.9 8.4 10.6 12.613.1 YoY 32%72%26%19%23%CR3 51%56%54%56%54%56%CR5 62%65%66%67%65%67%CPIA 2024 2009 1210 25 51 2023 1-11 1.94/(t/d)1 2023/1/5 1200 2 2023/1/9 900 3 2023/1/29 1000 4 2023/3/9 1200 5 2023/3/16 1000 6 2023/3/18 1250 7 2023/4/10 1000 8 2023/4/30 1000 9 2023/5/2 1200 10 2023/5/26 850 11 2023/6/28 1200 12 2023/7/2 1200 13 2023/8/20 1000 14 2023/9/8 1000 15 2023/9/20 1200 16 2023/9/28 1000 17 2023/10/28 1200 18 2023/11/12 1000 19400 2024 3389-3462 600GW 2023 2024 2024/1950/2269 349/407GW 2023/2024 64%/74%52 2024 3389-3462 600GW 2020 2021 2022 2023E 2024E 605 635 1023 1534 1950 726 749 1197 1731 2269 1009 1167 1785 2636 33893462 YoY 16%53%48%29%31%(GW)114 119 189 279 349 60%64%(GW)136 141 221 315 407 68%74%(GW)190 219 330 479 607620 105%100%110%103%110%113%CPIA 2024 80%2024 2009 1210 26 6 2020-2021 2024 90-94 53 2024 9094 2020 2021 2022 2023E 2024E 15.7 23.0 36.5 48.2 59.2 YoY 46%59%32%23%17.6 26.7 43.1 58.2 71.2 YoY 52%61%35%22%20 30 52 72 9094 YoY 54%73%39%25%31%CR3 81%77%70%67%63%66%CR5 90%89%83%81%76%79%PVInfoLink 2024 N 2024 72.974.7 800GW 58 641GW N 54 2024 72.974.7 80