1 WUEVvMsPtQqRoQsRnQqPpO7N9R8OnPoOsQsRiNpOoPjMmOmO8OmNnOxNqNnOMYqNnQ2 3 4 5 2003-2013 年收入 增速 与 产量 增速趋 势吻合：产量周期驱 动2014 年 以后收入 增速 与 价格 增速 趋 势吻 合：价格 周期 驱 动6 2021 11 20 PE TTM 26.87 2005 41%2005 41%7 8 1 2950-2980 2680-2710 2023 11 1 53%vol 20 2024 60 4%2 930 1218 3 880 60 20 4%-5%11 11 1 20%0.5 2950-2980 2680-2710 1.5 930 2 880 650 Q2 Q3 Q3+9 2023-2025 EPS 58.67 69.80 82.06 18%/19%/18%2312.92 2023-2025 EPS 7.83 8.73 9.74 14%/12%/12%217 Q2 2023-2025 EPS 8.97 10.98 13.34 27%/22%/21%290.61 1935 10 23Q3 11 2-3 2 20 370 30 790-820 23Q4 20 320 8 90-100 340-35023Q4 5 2 4-5 290-310 760-780 23Q3 23 11 FY24 6-8 2 320 450 23Q3 3 15 340-350 30 800Q4 20%11 23 23Q3 10 2 5 8 180-190 16 320-32023Q3 16 23 200 90%+2 6 115 9 190 160 300 9 23 20%+11 2+3+M3+420 M6+580 23Q3 M6+23 15%10 3 420+250+23Q3 23 8 2 20 370 30 650 23Q3 12 13 2014 2014 14 15 11 20 PE TTM 28.96 2005 1.8%2005 1.8%16 2024 3Q23-+2023 2024 23 23 8 23 24 2024 2024 15-20%17 RMB/2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 8922 9274 9269 9897 10085 9805 10852 5127 5722 5471 5489 4717 4769 5558+5299 5304 6357 6364 6186 5976 6016 4373 5167 4639 4853 4771 4999 4942 6511 6673 6358 6712 6291 6455 7528+6125 5756 5715 5964 5533 6196 7225 8811 9635 10128 10148 9087 9346 9896 8709 8274 7862 7970 7587 7173 6854 5431 5525 5319 5637 5035 5435 5899 20692 21696 20928 3260 3260 3267 3431 3496 3742 3928 2448 2516 2824 2903 2833 3020 3178 3270 3474 3544 3719 4384 4601 4795 2413 2510 2737 2817 2851 3090 3231 2947 2992 3118 3219 3386 3362 353718 2018 2020 2022 23H1+15%+26.4%+1.74%23 23 10+0.4%1-10+2.2%23H1+15%23H1 22%23H1+1.74%2021 2022 1 21 52+14%2 22 293+5%3 23H1 198+15%19-2%0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%0200040006000800010000120001953195619591962196519681971197419771980198319861989199219951998200120042007201020132016美国啤酒吨价（元/吨）yoy 1983 1979-1992 CAGR 5.3%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%0500010000150002000025000197019721974197619781980198219841986198819901992199419961998200020022004200620082010201220142016日本传统啤酒吨价（元/吨）yoy 1971-1985 1985 1.66/1983 14 15 20 2017 2023 2009-2010 2013-2014 2019-2020 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 yoy 3.9%11.3%-1.7%2.0%5.8%3.9%0.0%0.8%3.6%-4.6%1.7%5.2%2.9%-0.9%4.9%4.9%yoy 2.6%-15.6%-7.5%2.1%3.3%5.2%6.7%4.2%-0.5%4.8%8.7%yoy 3.3%8.1%0.0%-2.3%8.9%12.2%-1.1%3.6%3.8%-2.4%9.1%6.6%2.8%0.0%10.6%5.4%yoy 9.2%-1.9%2.2%2.4%-2.3%7.4%4.1%8.3%0.5%16.3%10.1%yoy 1.4%21.7%-1.0%7.7%6.4%12.3%-0.5%8.6%24.6%-1.1%6.6%0.8%2.2%-3.6%-0.1%4.8%yoy 6.0%3.3%-10.5%3.5%-16.2%-1.9%4.5%3.6%3.0%8.7%2.9%21 2013 2018 A 2022+5%5.2%4.2%4.6%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%01000200030004000500060002005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022国内啤酒产量（万千升）同比增速2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2364 2386 2464 2807 2979 2886 3244 3288 3584 3832 4023 4067 4013 4276 4501 4544 4643 5056 yoy 10.3%0.9%3.2%13.9%6.1%-3.1%12.4%1.3%9.0%6.9%5.0%1.1%-1.3%6.5%5.3%0.9%2.2%8.9%116 132 148 134 173 213 226 214 249 280 305 335 293 308 335 362 475 565 yoy 12.9%13.0%12.4%-9.4%28.7%23.2%6.3%-5.2%16.1%12.8%8.8%9.7%-12.3%5.1%8.8%8.0%31.1%18.9%39.2%39.3%39.5%38.6%41.5%42.3%41.5%39.7%40.0%39.4%38.3%40.4%38.8%38.0%39.5%42.5%40.5%40.0%12.8%13.5%14.6%14.6%15.4%16.2%16.5%16.3%16.9%16.9%18.2%19.2%18.5%16.2%16.4%17.2%14.2%13.7%26.4%25.8%24.9%24.0%26.1%26.1%25.0%23.4%23.1%22.5%20.1%21.2%20.2%21.8%23.2%25.3%26.3%26.3%22 1 2 2023 3 2023-2025 EPS 3.33 4.04 4.71 22%/21%/16%137.59 1 2024 2030 2 3-5 350 SuperX 23-24 30%2023-2025 EPS 1.68 1.96 2.24 25%/17%/14%1 23Q1 Q2 2 U8 23 U8 2023-2025 EPS 0.23 0.34 0.46 86%/44%/38%15.8 1 2H23 2 1664 2023-2025 EPS 3.13 3.57 3.95 20%/14%/11%124.9 1/2/2023-2025 EPS 0.89 1.13 1.44 80%/27%/27%31.64 23 24 25 26 2014 2014 27 11 20 PE TTM 31.51 2013 11.3%2013 11.3%28 2014 2000-2013 15 478 30 450 2014 2010 2 2013-14 2013-14 2018 2019 2021+29 Frost&Sullivan 1.2 2020-2025 7%1/6 1/4 1/2 1 2 Frost&Sullivan 1115%40%10%30%18%30%0 0.5 1 1.5 2()/()30 Frost&Sullivan/1 2 231 2 3 4 KA 1 BC 2 3 1+2 1 2 3 1 2 1 2 3 31 1 CVS CVS 2 7+产品结构 占比-20 23E yoy-2023E辣卤零食-休闲魔芋制品 12%60%辣卤零食-肉禽制品 10%70%辣卤零食-休闲豆制品 8%40%辣卤零食-其他 8%60%休闲烘焙 16%10%深海零食 15%15%薯类零食 8%40%蒟蒻果冻布丁 7%50%果干坚果 6%25%蛋类零食 5%430%其他（含组合装等）5%50%渠道结构 占比-2023E yoy-2023E直营KA 8%-10%电商 21%110%BC类商超 41%9%零食专营 20%130%定量流通 10%91%32 2023-2025 EPS 0.41 0.54 0.70 50%/31%/29%15.77 BC 23Q3 产品 占比-20 23E yoy-2023E鱼制品 69%31%其中：鱼制品大包 21%其中：鱼制品小包 34%其中：鱼制品散装 14%豆制品 11%23%禽制品 17%90%其他制品 3%16%渠道 占比-2023E电商 20%量贩渠道 5%CVS/KA 10%中小终端 35%BC 类超 30%33 核 心 逻 辑：冷链发 展叠加 下游需 求结构 变化。我们认为，餐饮供应链发展的核心逻辑在于：1）供给侧：食品工业技术、冷链物流体系快速发展。2）需求侧：中 长期 逻 辑-B 端提效降本、C 端便捷烹饪趋势明确，短期逻辑-门店扩张/产品创新加速。需求侧B 端C 端大B：连 锁餐 饮小B：餐 饮小 店中长期：提效降本、持续提升客户体验短期：疫后门店扩张(同 店 改 善+恢复拓 店)、产品创新加速中长期：便捷烹饪家庭消费供给侧食品工业技术、冷链物流体系日趋成熟餐饮供应链 34&202135 2023-2025 EPS 0.53/0.64/0.75+58%/21%/17%27.91+2022Q4 36 2023H1 2023-2025 EPS 1.74 2.33 2.98 48%/34%/28%70 2023H1+71.01%1 2022 2 3 7-9 B B 2023 2023 B B 2023H1 yoy 2022H1 390.88 23.99%315.25 159.13 19.15%133.55 185.24 64.75%112.44 112.12 31.29%85.40 3.47 59.77%2.17 589.65 44.87%407.02 243.98 6.10%229.96 17.21 45.43%11.83 380.01 71.01%222.21 467.36 10.12%424.43 850.84 31.14%648.81-50%-30%-10%10%30%50%0.01.02.03.04.05.020Q320Q421Q121Q221Q321Q422Q122Q222Q322Q423Q123Q2 yoy-50%-30%-10%10%30%50%70%0.00.10.10.20.20.30.30.420Q320Q421Q121Q221Q321Q422Q122Q222Q322Q423Q123Q2 yoy37 2023-2025 EPS 0.79/0.90/1.07+46%/14%/20%40.96 1+47 700 2/10%38 2023-2025 12%2023-2025 EPS 5.41 6.47 7.97 44%/20%/23%178.89 2023 1200 4.09%1143 3.90%106.03/40%30%30%1462 1 8 5 2 8 7 1457 1104.84 2023-2025 136.45 152.82 171.15 12%/12%/12%2018-2021 30%14%Q3 2023 2023 23XPE 8.00 0.67%0.03%8.00 0.67%0.03%8.00 0.67%0.03%7.00 0.58%0.02%7.00 0.58%0.02%1,457 1,104.84 92.07%3.77%57.16 4.76%0.19%1,200.00 100.00%4.09%2023 136.45 2023 12%2023-2024 289.27 2024 12%2023-2025 460.42 2025 12%2023-2024 289.27 2023-2025 460.42 39 2023-2025 EPS 0.89/1.13/1.44+80%/27%/27%31.64/C+0 2023 3-5-8 SKU 3-5-8 3:2:5 2022Q4 5 CAGR 20%CAGR=20%40 1 2023-25 15%23/24 6/10 2 9 1H23 3 2023-2025 EPS 0.98 1.60 2.04 165%/64%/28%53.06 1 10 28 3Q23 30%2024 33-35%11-13%2 10%2024 13%3Q23E 2023 年十一期间单店同比 低单位数下降 GMV 双位数（含线上）老店恢复程度（2019 年同期）持平正增长开店增速 10%-2023 4 23Q4 12 41 2023-25 EPS 1.76 2.15 2.58-9%/22%/20%47.3 1 2 23 23 24 24 Q3/23Q3 5%-13.5%20%23Q3 5pct 22Q3 10%12 23 2-4 10-11 42 2023/11/20 Wind 2023-2025 EPS 0.63 0.70 0.79 11%/10%/13%12.3 90%22 Q3 Q4 IL PET/+1.7 2 2020 5 16 2022 4 12 2021 4 12 2022 9 20 2600 2386.5 2.42%2.22%6.13-7.99/7.98-9.31/6.57/8.38/1.71 2.0 EPS CAGR PE PS 22A 23E 24E2022-2422A 23E 24E 22A 23E 24E 296 1.17 1.43 1.59 17%20 16 15 5.0 4.5 3.8 61 0.56 0.72 0.87 24%28 22 18 4.4 4.0 3.4 58 0.18 0.23 0.33 36%76 58 40 5.9 3.3 2.6 23 19 4.3 3.6 88 0.57 0.63 0.70 11%15 13 12 3.3 3.0 2.7 43 44 2005/2005 2023/11/20 69 4.9 5.1 2005-2007 2009-2012 2014-2017 2020/2008 2013 2018/2005-2023 2023 11 2017%296%169%-60%102%18%-1%2%-42%42%23%28%93%-23%102%96%-3%-15%-7%-15%74%118%-47%77%42%-30%-15%27%0%10%-12%1%-11%38%85%9%0%-26%-11%107%130%-51%94%21%-29%-3%33%6%41%-11%2%-16%29%67%-17%-20%-19%-8%130%97%-65%80%-14%-22%3%-7%53%9%-12%7%-25%22%14%5%-15%-1%45 EPS CAGR PEPEGPS 22A 23E 24E 2022-24 22A 23E 24E 22A 23E 24E600519.SH 22,140 49.93 58.67 69.80 18%35 30 25 1.4 17.4 15.0 12.8 000858.SZ 5,993 6.88 7.83 8.73 13%22 20 18 1.4 8.1 7.2 6.5 000568.SZ 3,075 7.04 8.97 10.98 25%30 23 19 0.8 12.2 9.8 8.1 600809.SH 2,884 6.64 8.36 10.37 25%36 28 23 0.9 11.0 8.9 7.4 600702.SH 361 5.06 5.52 6.80 16%21 20 16 1.0 6.0 5.1 4.2 000799.SZ 245 3.23 1.89 2.64-10%23 40 29-6.1 8.6 7.4 002304.SZ 1,766 6.23 7.02 8.02 13%19 17 15 1.1 5.9 5.1 4.6 603369.SH 683 2.00 2.56 3.19 27%27 21 17 0.6 8.7 6.8 5.5 000596.SZ 1,374 5.95 8.16 10.11 30%44 32 26 0.8 8.2 6.6 5.6 603198.SH 565 2.13 2.84 3.64 31%33 25 19 0.6 10.3 8.2 6.6 603589.SH 288 2.58 3.00 3.65 19%19 16 13 0.7 5.6 4.7 3.9 600197.SH 106 0.35 0.68 0.91 61%64 33 25 0.4 6.5 4.8 3.8 603919.SH 134 0.55 0.73 1.03 37%48 36 26 0.7 6.7 5.2 4.3 600779.SH 288 2.49 2.75 3.57 20%24 21 17 0.8 6.2 5.9 4.7 600559.SH 215 0.77 0.75 0.97 12%30 31 24 2.0 4.6 4.0 3.5 6979.HK 349 0.31 0.49 0.61 39%34 22 18 0.5 6.0 5.0 4.1 46 EPS CAGR PEPEGPS 22A 23E 24E 22A 23E 24E 2022-24 22A 23E 24E 600600.SH 1,064 2.72 3.33 4.04 22%29 23 19 0.9 3.3 3.2 3.0 0168.HK 685 2.72 3.33 4.04 22%18 15 12 0.6 2.1 2.0 1.9 0291.HK 1,186 1.34 1.68 1.96 21%27 22 19 0.9 3.3 3.1 2.9 600132.SH 361 2.61 3.13 3.57 17%29 24 21 1.2 2.6 2.3 2.1 000729.SZ 281 0.12 0.23 0.34 64%80 43 30 0.5 2.1 1.9 1.7 002461.SZ 182 0.27 0.34 0.39 21%30 24 21 1.0 3.7 3.4 3.1 002568.SZ 272 0.50 0.89 1.13 51%52 29 23 0.4 10.5 7.9 6.3 603517.SH 205 0.37 0.98 1.60 108%88 33 20 0.2 3.1 2.7 2.3 603057.SH 92 0.54 0.87 1.10 43%41 26 20 0.5 2.6 2.5 2.2 1458.HK 55 0.01 0.09 0.18 308%219 25 13 0.0 2.3 1.8 1.4 600887.SH 1,729 1.48 1.64 1.92 14%18 17 14 1.0 1.4 1.3 1.2 2319.HK 923 1.35 1.82 2.14 26%17 13 11 0.4 1.0 0.8 0.7 000848.SZ 88 0.57 0.63 0.70 11%15 13 12 1.1 3.3 3.0 2.7 605337.SH 61 0.56 0.72 0.87 24%28 22 18 0.7 4.4 4.0 3.4 603170.SH 75 0.54 0.79 0.89 29%35 24 21 0.7 3.7 3.1 2.6 603345.SH 334 3.75 5.41 6.47 31%30 21 18 0.6 2.7 2.2 1.8 001215.SZ 49 1.18 1.74 2.33 41%48 33 24 0.6 3.3 2.4 2.0 605089.SH 53 1.04 1.07 1.31 12%37 36 29 2.3 6.6 6.2 5.3 605338.SH 58 0.74 0.75 0.97 12%31 31 24 1.9 3.8 3.2 2.6 002216.SZ 126 0.91 1.01 1.13 11%16 14 13 1.1 1.7 1.5 1.4 300973.SZ 93 0.85 1.33 1.88 49%65 42 29 0.6 3.2 2.5 2.0 603288.SH 2,136 1.11 1.08 1.25 6%34 35 31 5.4 8.3 8.5 7.6 603027.SH 180 0.33 0.53 0.64 39%52 33 27 0.7 7.4 5.6 4.7 603317.SH 153 0.32 0.39 0.48 22%45 37 30 1.3 5.7 4.7 3.9 600872.SH 265-0.75 0.83 1.04-40 32-5.0 4.8 4.3 600305.SH 107 0.12 0.15 0.17 18%77 62 55 3.0 5.0 4.9 4.3 002507.SZ 184 0.78 0.72 0.79 1%20 22 20 23.9 7.2 7.4 6.8 600298.SH 303 1.52 1.64 2.03 15%23 21 17 1.1 2.4 2.1 1.8 002557.SZ 189 1.93 1.76 2.15 6%19 21 17 3.0 2.7 2.6 2.3 300783.SZ 76 0.32 0.57 0.73 50%59 33 26 0.5 1.0 1.1 0.9 603719.SH 83 0.84 0.78 0.95 6%25 27 22 3.4 0.9 0.9 0.8 003000.SZ 55 0.28 0.41 0.54 40%44 30 23 0.6 3.8 2.8 2.2 300755.SZ 82 0.88 0.62 0.98 6%22 32 20 3.5 0.9 0.8 0.7 47 48 1 2 3 4 4950