20231022_招商证券_存储产业链上游之CMP抛光材料行业深度报告：先进制程提振需求国产替代空间广阔_22页.pdf
|2023 10 22 CMP/3D 2D NAND 3D NAND CMP 3D 2022 PC AI DRAM NAND Flash 3D HBM AI NAND 3D 2023Q2 TrendForce DRAM NAND Flash 2023Q4 CMP CMP 2D NAND 3D NAND CMP CMP 3D 2024 CMP 80%CMP CMP 1 CMP CMP CMP 2 22EPS 23EPS 23PE PB 300054.SZ 20.5 0.41 0.53 41.3 4.8 688019.SH 17.0 4.04 3.99 43.0 8.8 Wind%405 7.7 3720.8 4.7 3152.3 4.6%1m 6m 12m-5.5-16.2-18.8-0.3-1.5-12.3 1 2023-10-18 2 2023 10 2 2023-10-15 3 2023 9 5 2023-10-08 S1090515120001 S1090520080002 S1090523090001 S1090511060002 S1090521060001-20-1001020Oct/22 Feb/23 Jun/23 Sep/23(%)化工 沪深300 2 3D.4 1 AI.4 2 3D.6.11 1.11 2.15.17 1 CMP.17 2 CMP.19.20 1.4 2.4 3.5 4.5 5.5 6.5 7.6 8 PC.6 9.6 10 AI.6 11.7 12.7 13 DRAM.8 14 HBM.8 15 NAND 2D 3D.9 16 3D NAND.9 17 3D NAND.9 ZXFUwPnQsRoPrPoNmRpQpO8ObPaQtRnNnPpMlOoPnNkPnPtQ8OpOoOuOoMoQNZsOyR 3 18 2023Q2 DRAM.10 19 2023Q2 NAND Flash.10 20 DRAM DXI.11 21 NAND.11 22 CMP.12 23 CMP.13 24 CMP.13 25 CMP.13 26.14 27 CMP.14 28.14 29 CMP.14 30 TSV.15 31.16 32.16 33.18 34.18 35.19 1.10 2 2023Q3.10 3 CMP.15 4.16 5.17 6 CMP.18 7.20 4 3D 1 AI SoC IP EDA WSTS 2016-2021 2767 4630 CAGR 10.8%2023 5768 5G 1 2 WSTS 36%50.56%13.44%CPU GPU ASIC FPGA MCU WSTS 33%33%15%19%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%010002000300040005000600070002016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022E 2023E全球集成电路市场规模（亿美元）同比增速（%）5 3 4 WSTS 2019 2019 31%10%1096 5220 2023 1658 6492 CAGR 10.9%5.6%PC 70%5 6 WSTS 2022 PC Canalys 2022 11.93 IDC 2023 11.5 2024 PC 2017 2021 2021 PC 3.49 15%2022 PC 16.3%2.92 2023 PC PC 2024 36%50.56%13.44%设计制造封测33%33%19%15%存储芯片逻辑芯片微处理芯片模拟芯片-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%010002000300040005000600070002018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023E全球存储芯片市场规模（亿美元）我国存储芯片市场规模（亿元）全球同比（%）我国同比（%）44.75%13.13%12.35%8.52%7.25%14%手机电脑服务器消费电子显卡其他 6 7 8 PC Canalys IDC IDC AI CPU I/O 2017 2022 1019 1423 6.9%2020 2023 CSP Trend Force 2023 1383.5 2.85%AI GPU FPGA ASIC CPU AI CPU 2019 2022 AI 99 183 23%AI DRAM NAND Flash 8 3 AI AI 9 10 AI Trend Force IDC 2 3D DRAM NAND Flash RAM CPU RAM-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%891011121314152018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023E全球个人手机出货量（亿台）同比（%）-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%11.522.533.542017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023E全球PC 出货量（亿台）同比（%）-5%0%5%10%15%20%020040060080010001200140016002017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023E全球服务器出货量及预测（万台）同比（%）0%5%10%15%20%25%30%0501001502002502019 2020 2021 2022 2023E全球AI服务器市场规模（亿美元）同比（%）7 DRAM SRAM DRAM SRAM ROM ROM Mask ROM PROM EPROM EEPROM Flash Flash NAND Flash NOR Flash NAND Flash ROM NOR Flash CPU DRAM NAND Flash 53%44%NOR Flash 1%11 12 DRAM 3D HBM AI DRAM TechInsighs SK Hynix DRAM DRAM 15nm(D/R)n+1 n+2 D1b 1 D1c 1 DRAM 53%44%1%2%DRAMNAND FlashNOR Flash其他 8 DRAM DRAM HBM HBM,High Bandwidth Memory GPU DRAM GPU GDDR HBM GDDR HBM TSV AI AI HBM DRAM 2D 3D 13 DRAM TechInsights 14 HBM NAND 3D 2D NAND 15nm Cell Vt Margin NAND WL Word Line WL NAND 20nm 9 Z NAND Die 3D NAND 2022 5 232 3D NAND 6 5 176 NAND Tech Insights-99%3D NAND 3D NAND/CTF IM Flash Technologies 3D NAND FG/P-BiCS Xtacking 15 NAND 2D 3D 16 3D NAND 17 3D NAND TechInsights DRAM NAND Flash DRAM SK 95%3.1%DRAM NAND Flash 0501001502002501 2 3 4 5 6美光产品3D NAND 层数（层）10 SK 95%18 2023Q2 DRAM 19 2023Q2 NAND Flash CFM CFM 2023Q2 2022 15%CFM 2022Q4 2023Q1 120 2022 9%2022Q4 NAND 2023 50%SK 2022Q4 DRAM NAND 30%2024 2023 1 30%2023 4 2023 2 CFM 2023Q2 NAND Flash DRAM 5%91.28 11.9%106.75 NAND Flash NAND Flash SK 2023Q2 26.4%DRAM 1 2023 NAND 20%NAND 40%2023 50%SK 22Q4 2023 50%NAND DRAM NAND 30%2024 2023 40%50%2023 1 30%2023 23 27 9 2022 12 25%2023 220 2 2 2023Q3 2023Q2 NAND Flash 2023Q2 DRAM 38.10%32.20%25%2.10%1%1.50%三星SK海力士美光南亚科技华邦电子其他30.20%20%18.30%15.10%11.10%5.30%三星铠侠SK 海力士西部数据美光其他 11 2023Q2 2023Q2 2755-6.10%4071 1.50%1830-1.20%SK 3447 48.90%SK 1666 26.40%2672-1.80%1377 5.30%229 8%1013 14.50%102 2.60%487 20.80%155 18.30%9128 5%10675 11.90%CFM DRAM NAND NAND Flash DRAM 2022 2023 9 18 DRAM DDR3 4Gb 512Mx8 1600MHz 2.696/Gb 1.007/Gb 63%DXI Trend Force 2013 DRAM 48%DRAM DRAM DDR3 4Gb 512Mx8 1600MHz DXI 4%7%2022 NAND NAND Flash 64Gb 8Gx8 MLC NAND Flash DRAM NAND Flash TrendForce 2023Q4 DRAM NAND Flash DRAM NAND Flash 38%8%13%AI 2024 20 DRAM DXI 21 NAND Wind Wind 1 CMP EDA IP-010,00020,00030,00040,00050,0000123452015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023现货平均价:DRAM:DDR3 4Gb 512Mx8 1600MHz（美元）DXI指数（点，右轴）01234562015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023现货平均价:NAND Flash:64Gb 8Gx8 MLC 美元现货平均价:NAND Flash:32Gb 4Gx8 MLC 美元 12-CMP 22 CMP CMP CMP CMP CMP CMP CMP 2.5D 3D IC CMP CMP IC 13 23 CMP CMP CMP 0.3 5 m 5-3nm CMP 24 CMP 25 CMP 14 CMP 7%38%13%CMP 7%CMP SEMI CMP CMP CMP CMP 85%26 27 CMP CMP CMP 2016 2021 6.5 11 11.3 18.9 11.7%11.4%CMP 2D NAND 3D NAND CMP CMP 3D 2024 CMP 28 29 CMP Cabot Microelectronics Mordor Intelligence TSV CMP through silicon via,TSV 2.5D/3D TSV Si TSV 35%8 40%TSV 38%13%13%7%7%5%2%10%硅片电子特气掩膜板光刻胶辅助材料CMP 抛光材料工学艺术品金属靶材其他49%33%9%5%4%抛光液抛光垫调节器清洁剂其他-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%051015202016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021全球CMP抛光垫市场规模（亿美 元）全球CMP抛光液市场规模（亿美 元）抛光垫同比（%）抛光液同比（%）02468101214162D NAND 3D NAND其他 钨 15 TSV TSV TSV CMP TSV CMP TSV 2D CMP MEMS CMP 30 TSV 2 3 CMP 16 TDL STI 3D TSV 130nm 10nm 4/10nm(TDL)(inter-layerdielectric,ILD)(inter-metaldielectric IMD)(STI)3D(TSV)(TSV)CMP 2%80%5%31 32 CABOT CABOT 33%13%10%9%2%33%CabotHitachiFujimiVersum安集科技其他79%5%4%2%1%9%DowCabotThomas WestFojiboJSR其他 17 IC1000 20 85%30 Cabot Fujibo 5 IC1000 Ikonic Optivision Optivision PRO Politex Suba Visionpad Cabot NexPlanar MEDEA Epic Epic Power Fujibo FP series FX seires FXA series Suede series TMI PuRa WestPad 1 CMP CMP 2018 2020 94%2021 CMP CMP 13%2023 19%2021 2022 CMP 63%66%2020 2023 55%CMP 18 33 34 CMP CMP CMP CMP CMP CMP 40 CMP 6 CMP CMP CMP CMP 1 30 2 20 2022Q3 2022Q4 CMP 40 CMP 2023 5000 2000 1 CMP 2 CMP 2023 CMP 2022 0%20%40%60%80%100%2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023H1打印复印耗材 CMP 抛光垫 其他-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023H1公司总体毛利率 打印复印耗材毛利率CMP 抛光垫毛利率 19 2 CMP CMP-CMP 0.3 5 m 30%Bumping RDL TSV 35 3D NAND 20 7 28nm 1 2 21 3 4 22 6-12 A 300 500 20%5-20%5%5%
