20231205_招商证券_机械行业2024年度投资策略：于踟蹰时看到希望机会将如雨后春笋_20页.pdf
|2023 12 05 2024/2023 2024 2023 300 5.9 11 2024%464 9.2 3532.7 4.5 2866.1 4.2%1m 6m 12m 5.6-0.4 1.3 8.1 8.1 11.9 1 10 20231112 2023-11-13 2 2023-11-08 3 20231105 2023-11-06 S1090522050002 S1090523080001-15-10-50510Dec/22 Mar/23 Jul/23 Nov/23(%)机械 沪深300 2 2024 0-1 2023 2024 1 2024 1 1ZEVwPnQtQnMtNoNmRqPrQaQbP8OpNmMtRnOfQpOoMeRrRtN8OqQzQwMpOmPxNmQsO 3 2023.5 2024.8 1.8 2.9 3.10 4.13.13 1.13 2.15.17.18 1 2023 2023 11 29.5 2.5 3 2023%.6 4 2023%.6 5 2023 50.6 6 2023 50 PB.6 7 10 PE-band.8 8 10 PB-band.8 9 10 PE.9 10 10 PB.9 11 PMI%.9 12 PMI%.9 13%.10 14%.10 15 A%.10 16 A CR3%.11 4 17 A CR3%.11 18 A CR3%.11 19 A CR3%.11 20 A CR3%.12 21 A CR3%.12 22 ROE%.12 23%.12 24%.12 25 2023 1 25%.13 26.14 27.14 28 9-12.14 29.15 30.15 31 PEBand.18 32 PBBand.18 1 2023 2023 11 29 50.6 5 2023 2022 11 22 2023 2023 1 2 3 A 300 2023 2023 11 29 10.15%11 300 5.9 1 2023 2023 11 29 wind 2023 2 wind 1 2023 2023 11 29 16.04%7.62%4.44%2.62%40.0510.15-18.66-30-20-1001020304050 2023 年初至20231130 涨跌幅-%-40%-35%-30%-25%-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%21-1121-1222-0122-0222-0322-0422-0522-0622-0722-0822-0922-1022-1122-1223-0123-0223-0323-0423-0523-0623-0723-0823-0923-10机械设备(申万)沪深300 6 2 21.70%19.71%18.62%3 wind 29.76%32.32%3 2023%4 2023%wind wind 1 50 9 TTM 20 5 2 5 2023 50 6 2023 50 PB wind wind 1 2023 2023 11 29 50 2023-%2023-%PE(TTM)-1 300606.SZ 203.07 47.55 137.90 2 603283.SH 163.11 73.43 32.86 3 300097.SZ 141.37 241.92-129.11 4 688160.SH 135.04-34.37 82.95 5 301255.SZ 125.43-13.81 59.05 6 300503.SZ 119.83-188.15-131.98 16.047.622.624.44024681012141618 2023年初至20231130 涨 跌幅-%21.7019.7118.6213.91 13.7711.788.92 8.85 8.507.16 7.165.852.62-4.51-7.96-10-50510152025 2023 年初至20231130 涨 跌幅-%-4-3-2-10123451.5 1.7 1.9 2.1 2.3 2.5log(涨跌幅)/log(前三季度盈利增速)02468101.5 1.7 1.9 2.1 2.3 2.5log(涨跌幅)/年初PB 7 2023-%2023-%PE(TTM)-7 301368.SZ 117.62-30.33 162.13 8 603662.SH 115.60 8.72 35.76 9 600520.SH 111.19-387.65-56.82 10 300669.SZ 108.07-1.07 62.20 11 300985.SZ 103.44 204.81-206.34 12 002559.SZ 102.85-5.30 4,286.39 13 688025.SH 98.28 64.12 76.10 14 301128.SZ 97.82 2.92 91.14 15 301070.SZ 97.64 8.38 89.03 16 603278.SH 96.51 162.73 237.17 17 688698.SH 93.95 36.90 45.95 18 002535.SZ 88.66 6,206.16 38.18 19 300293.SZ 88.17 7.61-100.48 20 000988.SZ 79.91 12.40 29.71 21 002527.SZ 75.08 282.58-7.56 22 002786.SZ 73.97-21.55-21.53 23 688328.SH 73.67-825.76-28.03 24 300084.SZ 73.47 104.26 49.39 25 603277.SH 73.24 9.76 23.90 26 603269.SH 72.38-6.09 33.01 27 603015.SH 70.11-22.92 116.50 28 002896.SZ 69.15 34.53 71.19 29 300161.SZ 68.79 37.62 206.70 30 688448.SH 68.73-9.17 61.13 31 301312.SZ 68.16-41.90 77.03 32 002849.SZ 68.08 10.95 74.19 33 688577.SH 67.47-55.69 131.27 34 300567.SZ 67.15-108.77 201.32 35 688017.SH 65.21-43.36 270.06 36 600114.SH 64.84 13.91 50.50 37 300549.SZ 63.11-18.98 106.73 38 600592.SH 63.02 590.78 23.35 39 603667.SH 61.71-13.52 61.02 40 600215.SH 60.45 216.16 19.12 41 688569.SH 59.67 55.94 17.05 42 300466.SZ 58.94 20.78 167.82 43 300818.SZ 58.49-45.77 48.42 44 300480.SZ 58.42 16.30 111.07 45 300461.SZ 57.39 114.07-159.78 46 300499.SZ 56.34-436.21 16.97 47 301083.SZ 56.24-29.85 64.13 48 002757.SZ 54.46 17.22 14.32 49 002833.SZ 54.05 24.24 13.91 50 300228.SZ 53.62 139.19-53.60 wind 2023 2024 8 2024 1 2024 PB 2023 12 1 PE 33.31 10 22.41%1.38 PB 2.26 10 24.63%1.35 7 10 PE-band ifind 8 10 PB-band ifind 10 120+PE PB 1 2 10 PB 100%3 10 PE PB 9 9 10 PE 10 10 PB wind PE 0%wind PB 0%2 2022 2023 PMI PMI PMI 2020 11 2021 5 36 29 11 PMI%12 PMI%wind wind 52.10 49.40 46485052545658 PMI%55.90 48.80 354045505560:PMI 10 13%14%wind wind 3 A 2020 2020 A CR10 45%2023 Q3 38%CR5 15 A%wind 1 2-505101520253035010000200003000040000500006000070000:%-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%0200040006000800010000:YoY(%)-0%10%20%30%40%50%2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 E机械行业收入CR10-%（剔除 第一 名后）机械行业收入CR10-%机械行业收入CR10-%（剔除 前五 名后）机械行业收入CR10-%（剔除 前三 名后）11 2020 16 A CR3%wind 17 A CR3%18 A CR3%wind wind 19 A CR3%wind 60%65%70%75%80%85%90%2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 E楼宇设备 激光设备 工程机械40%45%50%55%60%65%2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 E磨具磨料 机床工具20%25%30%35%40%45%50%2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 E机器人 其他通用设备0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 E工程机械器件 工控设备 轨交设备 12 20 A CR3%21 A CR3%wind wind/2018-2021 2021 22 ROE%wind 23%24%wind wind 45%50%55%60%65%70%75%80%2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 E印刷包装设备 纺织服装设备20%25%30%35%40%45%2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 E空调制冷 能源与重型设备 仪器仪表8.012.215.411.83.17.4 7.2 7.4-10010203040金卡智能 威星智能 真兰仪表先锋电子 秦川物联42.448.7 48.7 47.945.740.338.239.90102030405060金卡智能 威星智能 真兰仪表先锋电子 秦川物联11.419.422.318.91.38.810.311.5-30-20-100102030金卡智能 威星智能 真兰仪表先锋电子 秦川物联 13 4 1 2 3 4 1 2024 2023+2023 1-10 16.33-26%74871-43%2023 1 2020 2 2023 1-10-11.90%25 2023 1 25%wind 2024 50%70%-100-5005010015020025030035001002003004005006007008009002012-01-312012-04-302012-07-312012-10-312013-01-312013-04-302013-07-312013-11-302014-02-282014-05-312014-08-312014-11-302015-02-282015-05-312015-08-312015-11-302016-02-292016-05-312016-08-312016-11-302017-02-282017-05-312017-08-312017-11-302018-02-282018-05-312018-08-312018-11-302019-02-282019-05-312019-08-312019-11-302020-02-292020-05-312020-08-312020-11-302021-02-282021-05-312021-08-312021-11-302022-02-282022-05-312022-08-312022-11-302023-02-282023-05-312023-08-31销量（百台,左）同比（%，右）14 2020 2024 2029 25 26 wind 2017 2020 70%30%912 2023 1-10 53966+9%2024 2023 1-10 15+8%2 2023 10 101+14%2024 27 28 9-12 wind iFinD 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%0500001000001500002000002500003000002014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029小挖更新需求（台）中挖更新需求（台）大挖更新需求（台）更新需求占比（%）-60-40-200204060-100-50050100150挖机销量YOY（左轴）新开工面积YOY（右轴）-40-200204060-10001002003002008/12008/92009/52010/12010/92011/52012/12012/92013/52014/12014/92015/52016/12016/92017/52018/12018/92019/52020/12020/92021/52022/12022/92023/5挖机销量累计同比（左,%）基建投资增速滞后十二期（右,%）15 29 30 wind iFinD 2 2021 8 AI Day 0-1 2023 7 10 Optimus 11 2023 9 Agility Robotics 1 Digit 10 Digit OpenAI 1X Technologies 2022 1X technologies EVE NEO 2023 10 24-1024 5 PX5 8 A1 3C 2024-40-20020400481216新增中长期贷款累 计值（万 亿元，左）同比（%，右）040801201602002017-01-312017-05-312017-09-302018-01-312018-05-312018-09-302019-01-312019-05-312019-09-302020-01-312020-05-312020-09-302021-01-312021-05-312021-09-302022-01-312022-05-312022-09-302023-01-312023-05-312023-09-30 16 20 Unitree H1 1.5 11 17 GR-1 2024 2023 2024 100 4 10 2024 1 2024 1 2 Optimus 50 28 11 173cm/73kg/10kg/2 2022-09-30/2024 1 Agility Robotics Digit 20 175cm/65kg/16kg/2023-03-20 RoboFab 2024 2025 1X Technologies OpenAI NEO/167cm/30kg 4km/h 20kg/2023/CyberOne 21 177cm/52kg 3.6km/h 1.5kg 300Nm 60-70 2022-08-11/2023-10-24/PX5 11 7 150cm 3.6km/h 3kg/2023-10-24/17 Walker X 41 2X6 2X7 2X6 X3 130cm/63kg 3km/h 10kg/1.5kg 200Nm 10 2021-07-08/A1 49+12 5 175cm/55kg 7km/h 80kg/5kg 350Nm 20 2023-08-18 2024/GR-1 44 X3 X3 2X7 2X6 2X6 165cm/55kg 5km/h/230Nm/2023-07-06 2023 9 1000&Aelos 17 34.6cm/1.73kg 0.54km/h/2023-11-17/Unitree H1 19 4 X3 X1 X1 X1 180cm/47kg 5.4km/h/360Nm 9 2023-08-15 2023/S 26 121cm/28kg 5.4km/h 10kg/3kg/2023-08-12 2024/Max L 48 166.2cm/46kg 7.2km/h 15kg/5kg/XR-4 60 168cm/65kg 5km/h/2023-08-16 2024,2025/44 6 178cm/56kg/2023-03-23/E 18 2024 0-1 1 2 3 4 31 PEBand 32 PBBand 15x25x30 x40 x55x050010001500200025003000Dec/21 Jun/22 Dec/22 Jun/232.1x2.5x3.0 x3.4x3.9x020040060080010001200140016001800Dec/21 Jun/22 Dec/22 Jun/23 19 1 2023 2022/11/22 2023 20 6-12 A 300 500 20%5-20%5%5%
