20231205_海通证券_汽车行业：合纵连横迈向智能电动的明天_23页.pdf
SAC S0850522120003 SAC S0850522030001 SAC S0850523020001 SAC S0850517090004 2023 12 5 1.2.3.2 0YEVuNtOoNpOoQmPrMrOmNbRbP6MpNrRnPsRjMpOtRlOrRmR7NpPzQuOrQnPxNrMtQ3 Wind 2022 654 105%27.8%2023 1-10 695 38%32.4%2023 10 38.4%YOY 1.0%20%40%60%80%100%120%140%160%180%200%0100200300400500600700800 YOY 0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%0204060801001202020-012020-042020-072020-102021-012021-042021-072021-102022-012022-042022-072022-102023-012023-042023-072023-10 4 2023 2024 2024 2024 1018 17%40%1.2024 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%0501001502002503003504008 8-10 10-15 15-20 20-25 25-30 30-35 35-40 40-45 50 2023 2024 2023 2024 5 23M1-10 CR5 38%CR10 58%2023 11 25 23M1-10 343 17%23M1-10 23M1-10 1.,11%,7%,7%,7%,6%,5%,4%,4%,4%;4%,42%7.9%6.6%1.5%0.3%0.4%0%1%2%3%4%5%6%7%8%9%020406080100120140160180200 L2 2023 21%2022 4.92pct EMB EHB EMB 1 EMB 2 EMB 3 2019-2023H1 EMB 6 2.EMB 0%5%10%15%20%25%0501001502002503003502019 2020 2021 2022 2023H1%SbW Steer-by-Wire L3+EPS SbW 1 2 3 4 2022-2023 1 2022 1 2 2022 4 2025 2030 L3+L4+5%30%3 2023 6 7 2.SbW SbW 2022Q3 2022 OEM 2023 2023 OEM SbW 2.SbW 8 2022 2023 1-8 34.9 200%2022 28 142%2022-2023M1-8 9 2.28.01 34.94 0%50%100%150%200%250%05101520253035402022 2023M1-8%33%33%12%8%5%ECU 4%3%2%ECU 2022 1.1-1.6 33%2023 25%1 2023 1-5 88%2 30 2024 FREE 26.69 2024 G9570Pro 28.89%2023M1-5%10 39%29%20%77%16%6%51%31%8%0%20%40%60%80%100%AMK 2.30 XNGP 2023 3 XNGP G9 Max P7i Max 10 24 12 50 2024 200 ADS2.0 ADS2.0 M5 2023 45 NOP+2023 7 NOP+AD Max 2023 4 18 AD Max3.0 2023 100 6 NOA 2023 9 NOA 2024 1 AD MAX NOA AD Pro NOH 2024 2023 10 NOA 2023 10 24 NGP2024:200 50 NOA 2.NOA 11 NOA 2023Q3 2023 2022 2023 2023 A 3 220 2 25 170 2022 12 2023 9 9500 2023 3 2024 Q4 2.76 2023 175/75/12.33 30 60 2023 8.23 2.12 S7 2.13 2.14 15 800V OBC DC-DC 2023 MEGA 800V 9 30 400 X9 800V 5 200 S7 800V 5 200 007 800V 15 610 E8 800V 5 180 12 800V 10 400 LS6 800V 5 200 2.800V 2023 10-12 95 41%2023/24/25 18/29/38 19%/27%/31%2019 2020 2021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E 56 83 68 30 53 60 68 61 78 72 37 42 47 53 117 162 139 67 95 107 121 7.6 12.9 4.9 2.4 16.8 27.0 33.9 0.8 0.7 0.3 0.2 1.3 2.4 3.7 8.4 13.5 5.2 2.6 18.1 29.3 37.6 14%15%7%8%32%45%50%1%1%0%1%3%5%7%7%8%4%4%19%27%31%3.16 WIND TCO 40%45%50%55%60%65%70%75%80%85%90%95%100%105%110%115%120%2 2.9 3.4 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.1 6.6 7.1 7.6 8.2 8.7 9.2 9.7 10.3 10.8 11.3 4-3.0-2.0-0.9 0.1 1.2 2.2 3.3 4.4 5.4 6.5 7.5 8.6 9.6 10.7 11.7 12.8 13.8 6-8.9-7.3-5.8-4.2-2.6-1.0 0.5 2.1 3.7 5.3 6.8 8.4 10.0 11.6 13.1 14.7 16.3 8-14.8-12.7-10.6-8.5-6.4-4.3-2.2-0.1 2.0 4.1 6.2 8.3 10.4 12.5 14.6 16.7 18.8 10-20.7-18.1-15.5-12.9-10.2-7.6-5.0-2.4 0.3 2.9 5.5 8.1 10.8 13.4 16.0 18.7 21.3 12-26.7-23.5-20.3-17.2-14.0-10.9-7.7-4.6-1.4 1.7 4.9 8.0 11.2 14.3 17.5 20.6 23.8 14-32.6-28.9-25.2-21.5-17.9-14.2-10.5-6.8-3.2 0.5 4.2 7.9 11.6 15.2 18.9 22.6 26.3 16-38.5-34.3-30.1-25.9-21.7-17.5-13.3-9.1-4.9-0.7 3.5 7.7 11.9 16.1 20.3 24.6 28.8 18-44.4-39.7-34.9-30.2-25.5-20.8-16.0-11.3-6.6-1.8 2.9 7.6 12.3 17.1 21.8 26.5 31.2 20-50.3-45.0-39.8-34.5-29.3-24.0-18.8-13.5-8.3-3.0 2.2 7.5 12.7 18.0 23.2 28.5 33.7/TCO 3.TCO 17 2023 2023 38.4%8.3pct 66.9%6.5pct31.7%19.7pct 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%2022H1 2023H1 2023 3.18 01234562020 2021 2022 2023H1 2022H1销量（万台）商用车 发动机 变速箱 2020-2023 2023 4 18 2023 3.9+52%2.2+93%2.6+97%3.19 20 21 SAC S0850522120003 SAC S0850522030001 Email Email SAC S0850523020001 Email:Email SAC S0850517090004 Email:Email 22 1.6 6 2.A 500 10%-10%10%-10%6 10%-10%10%-10%23
