2024 SAC S14505200700012023 12 5-A 999729632 2024 2024 1ZDWzQmRnOqRtNtQnQqPoP8OdNaQsQpPoMnOeRpOoMkPqQsNbRpPzQxNpNrQuOoNrN 2017年服务中国制造20252018年服务高端制造 2018-2020 2019 年政策开始密集发 力6 7 MPA 2020年保实体经济1 7 10:2021 年重要性提升3 3 4 2022年量化政策密集出 台7 9 21 1-7 1.7 8-12 1-1.5 30%2023 2022 2023 2023年政策保持连贯性0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%0%5%10%15%20%25%2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023H/Wind 20H1 20H2 21H1 21H2 22H1 22H2 23H1 20H1 20H2 21H1 21H2 22H1 22H2 23H1 15.2%-3.1%14.0%8.4%6.8%31.7%23.2%15.3%4.0%5.9%12.3%11.3%2.4%20.4%-58.2%9.2%22.1%-31.0%10.0%11.4%9.6%25.7%23.5%14.2%13.1%9.0%5.8%11.2%13.4%7.9%5.5%8.8%14.0%-66.7%13.6%11.4%21.6%3.7%21.4%14.0%6.5%23.9%6.1%29.1%8.0%1.1%9.4%8.7%16.4%-24.4%10.0%-0.5%14.5%0.5%24.7%12.3%7.7%1.6%16.3%10.7%11.5%8.4%10.7%-10.4%12.2%-12.6%13.5%4.5%21.2%10.0%2.3%10.2%10.7%3.4%0.8%9.8%10.3%7.8%8.2%-0.8%2.2%1.5%11.0%10.9%14.1%7.8%12.8%7.4%-8.9%19.7%10.9%5.7%4.4%5.3%26.5%1.7%16.9%14.1%25.3%67.2%91.7%21.1%6.0%5.1%5.6%6.1%4.6%3.3%2.1%4.6%13.2%-44.8%10.8%210.1%46.2%40.4%24.3%19.1%-0.1%1.0%-15.2%12.9%32.4%-12.9%-0.4%2.5%5.9%22.9%28.5%22.5%20.9%31.9%11.2%18.8%8.9%-6.0%3.4%-5.9%4.9%6.7%4.6%2.2%4.4%2.1%10.2%17.9%26.0%27.6%35.1%17.7%5.5%75.2%19.7%1.5%20.7%-182.1%-28.7%1.8%19.8%10.2%7.4%8.1%14.0%29.4%25.1%15.8%-8.0%7.5%-26.3%10.4%25.1%-8.2%23.3%1.5%-0.2%12.5%3.2%20.8%13.6%69.6%27.7%15.5%10.5%0.3%15.9%6.8%37.1%18.3%35.1%18.8%18.9%4.2%4.0%12.2%19.9%11.8%24.5%14.6%29.9%-5.6%23.6%17.6%20.2%17.2%-9.8%31.2%-8.0%14.8%13.4%4.3%12.8%7.4%19.7%9.4%26.9%16.0%-1.6%5.6%-6.1%4.3%8.1%-45.8%21.6%7.3%19.7%9.8%19.8%11.7%20.4%3.3%20.7%15.8%27.3%4.7%20.7%5.0%24.6%14.8%23.4%20.8%-6.8%4.3%31.8%4.8%29.9%-13.2%28.1%15.7%9.2%-4.5%19.7%7.6%24.0%1.5%29.1%15.8%11.4%-36.5%10.9%-22.4%13.8%29.5%35.4%13.7%22.5%-1.3%15.1%25.2%20.8%2.6%12.0%15.2%18.5%-9.5%21.4%6.0%8.9%4.0%17.2%12.6%-10.8%31.5%8.8%12.3%5.9%23.5%10.2%10.5%8.8%7.0%3.6%-1.4%7.6%-0.2%7.9%7.5%22.0%0.2%10.3%13.4%11.6%12.4%4.0%10.1%2.1%13.3%4.2%-3.7%7.5%0.5%9.5%5.0%-0.2%-14.6%-2.5%-22.2%19.5%17.7%20.8%9.3%10.0%-8.8%2.2%-10.3%19.3%-24.3%13.1%3.3%2022 2021 2019 2023 6 Wind 3%5%7%9%11%13%15%17%19%21%23%04A 05A 06A 07A 08A 09A 10A 11A 12A 13A 14A 15A 16A 17A 18A 19A 20A 21A 22A 0%5%10%15%20%25%30%26%31%36%41%46%51%19601962196419661968197019721974197619781980198219841986198819901992199419961998200020022004200620082010201220142016201820202022 GDP(2005 2022 GDP 11.5pct 13.4pct 2018 1000 2019 1000 MPA 2020 40%2020 2019 MPA 2021 30%2021 2020 2021 2020 2022 2022 2021 MPA 2023 12.25%4%5%6%7%8%9%10%11%12%13%2016-122017-042017-082017-122018-042018-082018-122019-042019-082019-122020-042020-082020-122021-042021-082021-122022-042022-082022-122023-042023-08 4.47%7.59%21.35%17.88%20.71%21.46%23.97%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023Q3/Wind 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2020-2023 62019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2020-2023 6 15.52%19.95%21.60%35.39%19.88%24.46%5.52%18.67%19.89%43.17%31.38%25.98%28.44%27.83%20.81%20.02%26.45%23.45%21.44%28.23%25.71%15.39%20.44%18.03%17.28%26.53%20.36%91.77%24.28%25.50%25.16%15.68%22.48%12.03%14.69%17.32%17.73%23.99%18.49%15.46%18.10%17.24%20.22%17.61%8.95%17.30%18.09%18.93%18.92%18.42%19.11%18.87%11.68%12.40%17.79%10.96%15.96%17.35%15.21%18.79%20.86%13.78%18.08%11.68%16.09%12.47%23.04%25.03%54.95%44.87%33.50%13.37%9.22%20.62%19.50%14.63%17.42%20.67%16.82%26.66%27.23%21.97%7.40%11.98%13.60%12.94%15.86%13.49%18.55%19.41%22.11%23.10%20.41%21.31%11.01%11.83%12.80%16.07%11.97%13.42%13.25%27.14%46.34%17.81%20.96%9.59%11.09%15.87%9.09%11.90%19.33%49.68%30.54%19.49%14.49%14.61%9.24%12.76%11.84%11.98%6.71%14.73%20.64%19.00%23.52%18.77%10.60%11.07%7.83%17.65%2.66%10.07%9.36%15.42%12.00%25.78%24.18%18.55%6.75%6.92%10.79%14.36%13.02%16.05%27.89%16.61%7.51%-8.78%14.25%0.44%3.76%5.99%11.29%10.72%38.46%18.95%15.74%0.66%1.09%1.51%4.24%2.93%2.59%4.71%9.88%74.80%37.07%21.57%33.09%APR 24%36%18%24%18%15%17%19%21%23%25%27%29%31%10A 11A 12A 13A 14A 15A 16A 17A 18A 19A 20A 21A 22H+15%17%19%21%23%25%27%29%16A 17A 18A 19A 20A 21A 22A 223H32+Wind Wind 34%35%36%37%38%39%40%41%0%1%2%3%4%5%6%7%8%9%10%2004-122005-062005-122006-062006-122007-062007-122008-062008-122009-062009-122010-062010-122011-062011-122012-062012-122013-062013-122014-062014-122015-062015-122016-062016-122017-062017-122018-062018-122019-062019-122020-062020-122021-062021-122022-062022-122023-06 GDP 55%57%59%61%63%65%67%69%71%25%27%29%31%33%35%37%39%41%1992199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022 GDP 2010 2010-2019 GDP 4.45pct GDP 2010 2020 GDP GDP 2021 19.89%7%9%11%13%15%17%19%21%2004-122005-072006-022006-092007-042007-112008-062009-012009-082010-032010-102011-052011-122012-072013-022013-092014-042014-112015-062016-012016-082017-032017-102018-052018-122019-072020-022020-092021-042021-112022-062023-012023-08 2024 2023 10 24 1 3.88 4.88 2023 3%3.8%2024 1 2 3 4 2023Q3 2024 2023 1 Wind LPR bp 23Q4 24Q1 24Q2 24Q3 24Q4-5.81 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 LPR-4.45-9.50-3.51-3.51 0.00 2.07 0.76 0.27 0.27 0.00-8.18-8.74-3.23-3.23 0.00 30%Wind 30%pc pc 30%-38.42-1.12-2.14 30%-6.70-0.31-0.67 30%-5.22-0.38-1.50 30%-4.87-0.33-0.86 30%-12.33-0.71-1.87 30%-0.78-0.65-2.07 30%-0.56-0.20-0.43 0%1%2%3%4%5%6%2022 2023 Wind 2024 2022 501 2022 0.74%2022 2.18%,301,138,83,214,66 2022 65.9943.3726.7110.161.91%34.74%1.48%0.71%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%010203040506070 Wind 2022 100 3.66 45.7%11.9%40.9%1.5%44.3%1.2%0.2%45.7%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%9,566 32,771 1,165 35,502 974 121 36,597 05,00010,00015,00020,00025,00030,00035,00040,000 2023H1 48 Q1 Q2 2023 73%0%1%2%3%4%5%6%051015202530354045502022Q1 2022Q2 2022Q3 2022Q4 2023Q1 2023Q2 Wind 119320204060801001201402022 2023 Wind 2023 6 1.05 2022 4.67 2023 6.82%1.08%2.15%1.30%0.81%6.67%8.97%6.91%6.82%0%1%2%3%4%5%6%7%8%9%10%21Q4 22Q2 22Q4 23Q2 05,00010,00015,00020,00025,00030,00035,0002010-032010-092011-032011-092012-032012-092013-032013-092014-032014-092015-032015-092016-032016-092017-032017-092018-032018-092019-032019-092020-032020-092021-032021-092022-032022-092023-03 Wind 16 20Q4 21Q2 21Q4 22Q2 22Q4 23Q2 bp 0.31%0.29%1.45%1.71%2.51%6.77%426 3.35%3.11%3.63%2.89%3.08%5.29%221 0.00%6.18%0.00%0.00%7.28%9.10%182 0.30%1.07%1.41%2.82%4.08%5.52%144 3.88%6.28%4.71%6.15%5.88%7.14%126 0.01%0.17%0.66%0.62%2.82%3.77%95 0.69%1.04%2.66%2.99%4.28%5.13%85 0.09%0.61%0.62%0.90%1.66%2.31%65 1.35%1.69%1.25%1.90%2.80%3.39%59 2.32%4.29%4.79%5.47%6.14%6.68%54 0.00%0.72%3.67%2.95%4.81%5.22%41 1.31%1.56%1.85%2.98%4.36%4.76%40 1.50%1.24%1.32%1.39%1.78%39 0.73%0.61%1.23%2.56%3.89%4.22%33 1.81%1.54%3.39%3.97%5.48%5.79%31 0.04%0.22%1.47%1.70%1.87%2.08%21 0.49%0.10%0.24%14 1.25%1.89%3.47%3.36%4.06%4.19%13 0.00%0.00%0.08%1.01%0.96%1.06%10 2.79%2.63%3.78%3.46%3.45%3.45%0 0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0 13.69%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0 1.37%1.48%0.93%0.87%0.41%0.28%-13 2.07%3.03%2.75%3.83%3.06%2.88%-18 0.01%0.00%1.18%2.70%2.40%2.17%-23 6.33%4.57%3.77%2.59%2.55%2.20%-35 0.21%0.57%0.22%0.77%1.43%1.01%-42 0.02%0.01%0.02%1.01%1.45%1.01%-44 0.92%0.66%1.08%2.15%1.30%0.81%-49 2.39%2.73%3.05%2.89%2.56%2.06%-50 1.36%1.23%6.65%5.58%4.55%3.20%-135 4.68%4.91%5.05%5.67%7.23%5.11%-212 2.34%2.39%3.44%1.80%6.10%3.02%-308 0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%16%FDIC 40%20%=/0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%19851986198719881989199019911992199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%1987-2021 2008-2009 2008 1 7 2009 3 92 2010-2013 2010 6 19 2010 11 2881 2011 12 2012 8 2014-2017 2014 9 43 2014 9 2014 9 76 PPP 2015 1 2015 2017 11 92 PPP 2018-2020 2018 4 2018 8 27 2020 2021-2022 2021 1 2021 7 15 2022 10 126 20232023 9 35 2023 10 PPP 2010-2012 2020 GDP 0.0%0.5%1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%3.5%4.0%10A 11A 12A 13A 14A 15A 16A 17A 18A 19A 20A 21H 21A 22H 22A 23H 10383.09 10383.09 4885.12 4534.29 350.83 2614.95 2965.78 9822.44 9822.44 6812.97 6812.97 560.65 560.65 486.79 478.37 82.37 95.7 223.39 214.97 2.45%2.36%114.15 105.73 86.99 80.58 133.25%147.09%15.52%14.37%72.81%66.55%777.8 777.8 6353.86 6073.2 12.24%12.81%2014 2014 A Wind 0.5%2020-200204060801001201401601800.0%0.2%0.4%0.6%0.8%1.0%1.2%1.4%1.6%1.8%2.0%2.2%2020 bp 2023 6 Wind 2022 2020-150-50501502503504505500.5%1.5%2.5%3.5%4.5%5.5%6.5%2020 bp 2023 6 Wind-400-300-200-10001002003004005006000%1%2%3%4%5%6%2020 bp 2023 6 0.00.10.20.30.40.50.60.70.80.91.01.11.21.31.4 Wind 2011 1-2016 7 5 6 2016 7-2022 3 5 8 2022 3 PB 2010 0.28 2016 7 2022 3 2011 2016 7 2022 2012 10-2013 1 2014 10-2015 7 2023 Wind 0.40.60.81.01.21.41.61.82.02.22016-042016-072016-102017-012017-042017-072017-102018-012018-042018-072018-102019-012019-042019-072019-102020-012020-042020-072020-102021-012021-042021-072021-102022-012022-042022-072022-102023-012023-042023-072023-10不 同类型 银行PB_LF 估值 差异（加权 平均）+2021-2022 2023 2016 2017 2019 2020 5-2021 4 2021 4 2022 Wind 2010 2015 GDP 10.6%7.04%ROE 2016-2021 2020 6%GDP 2021 2023 GDP 5%2022-2023 GDP 3.99%GDP 3.0%4.0%5.0%6.0%7.0%8.0%9.0%10.0%11.0%12.0%GDP Wind 1.2016 2017 2.ROE 3.Wind 2011 2015 2016 2022 ROE 2004 2015 ROE ROE ROE 2015 ROE ROE ROE 2015 PB PB 2015 2021 PB PB 2015 2015 2021 2022 ROE 0.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.502A 03A 04A 05A 06A 07A 08A 09A 10A 11A 12A 13A 14A 15A 16A 17A 18A 19A 20A 21A 22A 23APB/PB PB/PB 0.00.20.40.60.81.01.21.41.61.82.004A 05A 06A 07A 08A 09A 10A 11A 12A 13A 14A 15A 16A 17A 18A 19A 20A 21A 22AROE/ROE ROE/ROE Wind GDP ROE 2024 GDP 2024 GDP IMF 4.6%OECD 7-9 4.7%4.6%2023 GDP 4%2024 2024 2024 1 2 2024 2024 Wind 1 2010 0.07561 2014 8 29 2023 12 1 0.1214 2014 2 7 2010 3.73%2 2014 2 7 2014 8 29 0.92 PB 0.91 PB 1.14 0.97 PB 0.69 0.71 2012 2014 2019 2020 5 2021 2016-2017 Wind 8-10%Wind-2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023H 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023H-0.62%-0.08%0.07%0.20%-0.06%0.17%0.01%0.11%-0.59%-0.22%-0.38%0.30%0.40%0.58%0.52%0.11%-0.47%-0.09%-0.23%-0.02%-0.35%0.08%-0.03%0.09%-1.58%-0.34%-1.12%-0.21%-1.03%-0.83%-0.33%0.05%-0.33%-0.21%-0.68%-0.40%-0.71%-0.14%-0.19%0.07%-0.20%-0.25%0.08%0.32%0.00%-0.57%-0.87%-0.11%-0.25%-0.01%0.17%0.19%0.05%0.12%-0.10%-0.02%-0.18%-0.23%-0.15%-0.54%-0.42%-0.41%-0.30%-0.13%-0.29%-0.04%0.09%0.01%-0.25%-0.06%-0.17%-0.09%-0.12%-0.13%-0.68%-0.03%-0.22%-0.19%-0.07%-0.15%-0.20%-0.32%-0.40%-0.31%-0.18%-0.10%-0.14%-0.22%-0.50%0.02%0.24%0.05%-0.10%0.05%-0.43%-0.29%-0.32%0.05%0.13%0.21%-0.04%0.13%0.24%0.14%-0.49%-0.16%-0.37%-0.51%-0.48%-0.20%-0.47%-0.34%-1.11%-1.35%-0.83%-1.02%-0.51%-0.73%-0.40%-0.18%-0.48%-0.37%-0.10%0.24%0.11%0.16%-0.12%-0.42%-0.47%0.38%0.34%0.13%-0.12%0.14%-0.20%-0.21%-0.53%-0.97%-1.71%-1.38%-1.24%-0.25%-0.31%-0.48%-0.84%-0.53%-1.42%-0.58%-0.87%-0.31%-0.55%-0.31%-0.87%-0.83%-0.39%-0.05%0.44%-0.02%-0.12%-0.55%-0.66%-0.37%-0.69%-0.45%-0.60%-0.26%-0.25%-0.34%-0.08%-0.10%-0.03%0.48%-0.60%-0.08%-0.35%-0.63%-0.40%-0.34%-0.27%-1.29%-0.47%-0.21%-0.33%-0.46%-0.54%0.01%-0.33%-0.71%-1.68%0.27%0.15%0.21%0.06%0.00%-0.15%-0.10%-0.11%-0.74%-0.66%-0.51%-0.40%-0.11%0.06%0.32%0.23%0.59%0.05%0.12%-1.03%-0.57%-0.62%-0.52%-0.31%0.05%-0.57%-0.58%-0.69%0.05%-0.32%-0.04%-0.11%0.02%0.05%0.06%-1.55%-1.31%-1.39%-0.74%-0.43%0.17%-0.59%-0.75%0.24%-0.11%0.15%0.08%-0.39%-0.04%0.14%0.03%0.13%-0.85%-1.44%0.10%-0.15%-0.94%-1.18%0.44%-0.47%0.11%0.41%0.16%-0.01%0.44%0.21%-0.04%-0.86%-1.16%-1.22%-0.95%-0.40%-0.35%0.03%0.30%-0.53%-0.59%-0.30%-0.68%-0.07%0.48%0.04%-0.08%-0.93%-0.64%-0.39%-0.08%0.63%0.67%0.42%0.21%-0.20%-0.20%-0.61%0.06%-1.44%-0.67%-0.62%-0.46%-1.11%-0.32%-0.42%-0.16%0.22%0.62%0.36%0.20%-0.35%-0.47%0.01%-0.64%-0.36%0.74%-0.12%-0.53%-0.18%-0.40%-0.58%-0.37%-0.06%0.19%-0.04%0.12%0.89%-0.19%-0.50%0.03%-0.68%-1.05%-1.09%-0.64%=2024 2024 6 300 10%6 300-10%10%6 300 10%A 6 300 B 6 300