20231205_国信证券_商贸零售行业2024年投资策略：紧扣性价比、并购、出海三条主线挖掘个股投资机遇_35页.pdf
2023 12 05 2024 证券分析师：张峻豪 证券分析师：柳旭 证券分析师：孙乔容若021-60933168 0755-81981311 S0980523090004S0980517070001 S0980522120001|2023 1-10 38.54+6.9%1-10 7.2%0.6%1-10 6.2%1-10 12.0%2024 1 2 3 1 2 3 4 ZXEVxOmRsRnMpRtQrMrOnM8O9R8OpNrRoMtQeRoPtReRmMoQ9PpPzQuOpOqMxNmQnQ EPS PE12-04 12-04 2023E 2024E 2023E 2024E603605.SH 98.49 390.83 2.91 3.69 33.85 26.69600223.SH 9.93 100.95 0.33 0.43 30.09 23.09600612.SH 68.50 267.76 4.53 5.33 15.12 12.85300866.SZ 85.60 347.90 4.16 4.89 20.58 17.51:Wind 2023 01 022024 03 04 1%2024 1-10 38.54+6.9%+7.0%10+7.6%9+2.1pct 1-10+5.6%+18.5%19.0%2023 10 87.9 1.2-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%020,00040,00060,00080,000100,000120,000140,00021Q1 21Q2 21Q3 21Q4 22Q1 22Q2 22Q3 22Q4 23Q1 23Q2 23Q3 yoy5060708090100110120130140:1-10+11.2%+8.4%26.7%+10.4%/+9.6%/+8.5%/1-10-0.6%/7.3%/4.7%/7.2%/3.6%/1-1./3%iFind 4%iFind-8%-6%-4%-2%0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%2023/1-2 2023 1-4 2023 1-6 2023 1-8 0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%2020/02 2020/08 2021/03 2021/09 2022/04 2022/10 2023/05 /1-10 5.20%/2.40%/10.30%1-10 12.00%1-10 6.20%1-10 0.30%1-2.5/%6%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%2020/02 2020/08 2021/03 2021/09 2022/04 2022/10 2023/05-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%2020/02 2020/08 2021/03 2021/09 2022/04 2022/10 2023/05 2.7 2023%Wind SW 11 29 2022 26.44%SW 11 29 2022 26.95%300 AI 8 Wind-35%-30%-25%-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%2023/01/04 2023/04/04 2023/07/04 2023/10/04 300 000300 SW SW-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%2023/01/04 2023/04/04 2023/07/04 2023/10/04 9 2023 17.61%+26.59%8 Costco 5 6 3-1.23 10 1221381016850317691124163204253271214148157169294050100150200250300350 m(20)0204060801002022Q1 2022Q2 2022Q3 2022Q4 2023Q1 2023Q2 2023Q3%11 3-2.23 12 0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%50%1.0:2.0:3.0 1-1.2023 1-10 12.0%1 2 3D 5G 13 2022%14%Wind-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%2022/1-2 2022/05 2022/08 2022/11 2023/03 2023/06 2023/09-70%-60%-50%-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%051015202522Q1 22Q2 22Q3 22Q4 23Q1 23Q2 23Q3 yoy 1-2.15 Wind 2022 CR5 28.1%2019 7.4pct 2%2015%2016%2017%2018%2019%2020%2021%2022%1 5.1%5.2%6.0%6.5%7.1%7.6%11.2%11.8%2 5.3%5.1%5.7%6.2%6.7%7.5%7.9%7.9%3 2.6%2.2%2.2%2.4%3.0%3.5%3.6%3.7%4 2.8%2.6%2.7%2.5%2.6%2.3%2.7%2.8%5 0.6%0.7%0.8%1.0%1.1%1.1%1.7%1.9%6 1.2%1.1%1.2%1.2%1.3%1.3%1.9%1.7%7 1.3%1.5%8 0.4%0.5%0.5%0.6%0.7%1.1%1.4%1.3%9 0.2%0.3%0.3%0.3%0.4%0.7%0.9%0.9%10 0.6%0.7%0.8%0.9%0.7%0.7%0.8%0.8%11 DR 0.2%0.2%0.2%0.3%0.3%0.4%0.7%0.7%12 0.4%0.4%0.4%0.4%0.4%0.4%0.5%0.6%2-1.16 2022%2023 2023 1-10 6.20%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%2022.1-2 2022.04 2022.06 2022.08 2022.10 2022.12 2023.3 2023.5 2023.7 2023.9 17 wind-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%051015202522Q1 22Q2 22Q3 22Q4 23Q1 23Q2 23Q3 yoy yoy yoy yoy 2-2.18 3/2023 4.14 78.65%150-300 Off&Relax 2023 0.97 2+150-200 2023 H1 1.32+64.80%50-150 2023 PL 3.07 211.42%TOP3 58.71%618 327%2 4 AOXMED 2023 1609 2023 7234 2023 TOP4 CP EviDenS de BeautSAS 2023 1.06 0.25 7 GMV 347%142%3-1.2023 2023 1.3 17.7%2022 10 20 690 19%20 A wind-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%0510152025303540455022Q3 22Q4 23Q1 23Q2 23Q3 yoy yoy yoy yoy yoy 3-2.2023 2013 25%2022 32.9%14.32 3.1%46.5%2022 GMV 1310 17%2025 2110 2022-2025 CAGR 17%21 E-commerce GMV%Google Temasek Bain&Company 22 wind 93949596979899100101OECD OECD OECD OECD 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%0501001502002502019 2020 2021 2022 2025E%2024 2024 2024 23 2024 24 1-1.-/+2019-2021 26.9%23 8.29pct 38.73%“”,1-2.25 26 33/100ml/90/100ml/1 2 3 SKU 1-3.27 4 1 2023Q3 15 2 2000 4 APP/7 13 10 350 Wind 0%1%2%3%4%5%6%7%8%12,50013,00013,50014,00014,50015,00015,50016,00016,5002017 2018 2019E 2020E 2021E%2-1.24 28 2023 5 2023-2025 28%/61.28%/100%2023-2025 28%/26%/24%2022 2023-2025 28.11/39.36/53.12 45%/40%/35%17.69/23.88/31.08 40%/35%/30%2023/2024 3.00/4.00 A 2022/2023 80/94 13.1/22.3 B2022/2023 75/86 11.1/19.2 2021/2022/2023 21.6/25.2/28.8 5.4/11.7/18.9 02004006008001000120014002019 2020 2021 2022 2023H1 2-2.1+12 30 CVC 29 2-3.31 0501001502002503003504001967 1971 1985 1988 1996 2000 2002 2008 2012 2018 2020/32 3-1.,Lazada 33 2022 B2C 34,11.10%,15%,15%,26%,26%,4%,4%3-2.0 1 35 36 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%2024 2023 2024 alpha 23 23 37 2024 23 2024+6 EPS PE12-04 12-04 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E600612.SH 68.50 267.76 3.25 4.53 5.33 6.07 13.17 15.12 12.85 11.29600223.SH 9.93 100.95 0.04 0.33 0.43 0.54 236.84 30.09 23.09 18.39300957.SZ 69.15 292.92 2.48 3.03 3.85 4.89 60.14 22.82 17.96 14.14603605.SH 98.49 390.83 2.88 2.91 3.69 4.51 58.09 33.85 26.69 21.84002867.SZ 15.73 172.39 1.01 1.30 1.58 1.83 14.10 12.10 9.96 8.60600827.SH 10.15 169.63 0.38 0.39 0.51 0.64 31.60 26.03 19.90 15.86300896.SZ 290.00 627.44 5.84 8.84 12.54 16.76 96.98 32.81 23.13 17.30300866.SZ 85.60 347.90 2.81 4.16 4.89 5.86 21.08 20.58 17.51 14.61600415.SH 8.02 439.84 0.20 0.47 0.51 0.59 26.02 17.06 15.73 13.59603708.SH 13.87 89.79 0.09 0.46 0.59 0.66 141.71 30.15 23.51 21.02600729.SH 27.58 112.12 2.17 3.29 3.72 4.15 10.88 8.38 7.41 6.65002345.SZ 32.72 130.91 0.51 0.93 1.25 1.66 0.00 35.18 26.18 19.71301381.SZ 27.60 79.81 0.76 1.35 1.93 2.41 20.26 20.44 14.30 11.45300592.SZ 6.66 59.17 0.22 0.46 0.56 0.68 23.47 14.48 11.89 9.791929.HK 11.14 1,114.00 0.54 0.75 0.88 0.98 23.72 14.85 12.66 11.37:Wind wind 6 20%6 10%-20%6 10%6 10%6 10%6 10%6 10%125 36 518046 0755-82130833 1199 1 12 200135 6 9 100032
