2009 1210 2023 12 6 2024 24 25 22 96 24-25%23 1 9 35 37%120 100 PE-TTM 10 20%2024 2012 2022 CAGR 23.16%2023 waggin train S0360522060001 S0360523020003 021-20572579 S0360521080002%()97 0.01()12,986.54 1.47()9,417.36 1.37%1M 6M 12M 5.1%-0.5%-7.6%6.6%8.3%-0.6%20231120-20231126 2023-11-26 10 2023-11-22 2023 3 2023-11-20-17%-7%3%13%22/11 23/02 23/04 23/07 23/09 23/112022-11-282023-11-27 300 2024 2009 1210 2023 2024 24 ROE 100 2 PE-TTM 10 20%2024 waggin train YWEVyRtOmPpOrPoNqNqPoPaQbPbRoMnNsQsRkPoPpNjMnNoR8OrRuNMYnPoOxNmMqN 2024 2009 1210 3.7 24H2 25.7 1.7 2 24.8.9 1“”.9 2.10.13 24.13 1.13 2.14 3.15.15 1.15 2.17.19.19 1.19 2.20 3.20 4.22.26.27.27 1.27 2.29.31.33“”.33.34.36 2024 2009 1210 4 1.7 2.7 3%.7 4.8 5 2021.8 6/kg.9 7/.11 8.11 9.13 10.13 11.13 12.13 13 2023 1-9.14 14 2023 1-9.14 15/.14 16 9.14 17.15 18/kg.16 19.16 20.16 21/.16 22/.17 23.17 24.18 25.18 26 3%pct.19 27 3%pct.19 28.20 29.20 30 3.20 31%.20 32.21 33/kg.21 2024 2009 1210 5 34/kg.21 35/kg.21 36 2022.22 37 2022.22 38.22 39 2019.23 40.23 41 2012-2022.23 42.24 43.24 44.25 45.25 46.25 47.25 48 5.25 49 2022Q1-2023Q3.26 50 PE-TTM.26 51/.27 52/.27 53/.27 54/.27 55.27 56.28 57.28 58.28 59.29 60.29 61.29 62.29 63.29 64.29 65.30 66.30 67.30 68.30 2024 2009 1210 6 69.30 70.31 71.31 72.31 73.31 74.32 75 10 50%.32 76 10.33 77.33 78 2020-2023 618 11.33 79 2021.34 80 2022%.34 81%.34 82.35 83.35 84 2018-2023H1.35 85 2018-2023H1.35 2024 2009 1210 7 24H2 25 1 10-0.85%-0.44%9 2023 10 21 6 7.76%21 5 15.39%1 2 1 2023 7 100 2020 47.59%2023 69.61%3%2020Q4 2021Q1 2021Q2 2021Q3 2021Q4 2022Q1 2022Q2 2022Q3 2022Q4 2023Q1 2023Q2 2023Q3 46.09 48.07 53.09 57.77 61.30 65.18 66.48 61.47 54.36 56.37 60.06 59.65 40.88 46.65 56.47 61.67 64.10 66.48 65.70 60.72 56.25 59.22 61.32 60.31 53.06 60.56 62.93 64.83 64.98 68.43 71.49 69.86 68.02 70.40 71.79 72.76 53.40 52.32 52.25 61.22 55.08 45.22*ST 58.56 64.09 68.57 75.23 92.60 97.03 102.88 113.82 148.41 156.99 160.10 162.61 43.25 52.79 66.21 74.54 79.93 83.67 78.68 76.45 79.61 83.15 85.78 87.03 45.77 47.59 46.98 49.64 52.76 55.65 58.53 60.06 58.28 59.01 60.71 63.00-12%-10%-8%-6%-4%-2%0%2%4%6%01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0002009-012009-122010-112011-102012-092013-082014-072015-062016-052017-042018-032019-022020-012020-122021-112022-102023-09能繁 母猪（万 头）环比增减-10.0%-8.0%-6.0%-4.0%-2.0%0.0%2.0%4.0%6.0%0200,000400,000600,000800,0001,000,0001,200,0001,400,0002020 年2 月2020 年5 月2020 年8 月2020 年11 月2021 年2 月2021 年5 月2021 年8 月2021 年11 月2022 年2 月2022 年5 月2022 年8 月2022 年11 月2023 年2 月2023 年5 月2023 年8 月能繁母猪 存栏（头）环比增减 2024 2009 1210 8 42.99 42.11 48.20 54.38 57.88 61.15 62.95 63.38 59.69 60.83 62.07 64.75 67.52 71.96 76.36 79.96 87.18 89.92 84.30 79.16 81.61 83.12 86.72 89.41 36.96 39.90 39.26 41.98 44.68 49.15 53.15 52.00 48.85 54.13 55.17 56.59 32.64 54.21 57.68 66.57 58.74 63.39 66.45 66.77 71.18 75.37 69.82 70.15 56.34 54.75 52.67 54.78 54.71 55.51 52.96 49.08 50.08 52.05 51.84 47.06 55.41 60.08 61.46 64.38 70.37 70.47 71.02 61.43 62.29 68.78 71.59 72.11 21.42 17.15 10.90 11.54 13.03 11.12 12.20 11.41 14.46 13.48 18.35 22.27 31.05 12.99 14.33 15.62 21.40 28.40 31.35 34.14 40.75 46.97 47.82 50.33 55.10 55.77 58.36 65.75 68.76 74.03 61.08 68.74 69.23 70.36 70.53 71.92 64.95 70.64 79.17 82.75 84.03 88.86 88.83 84.82 71.56 73.42 73.78 49.09 49.44 49.84 57.19 61.34 61.84 60.49 60.94 61.94 60.02 62.06 63.57 47.59 51.84 52.35 56.84 60.00 63.13 64.43 62.81 64.32 66.73 67.41 69.61 Wind 2 23/4 5 2021 Wind Wind 2 24 23 Q4 23 9 6.3%2.4%11 24 H1 23 4-9 5.9%24 0102030405060708090平均价:二元母猪（元/kg)02040608010012014016022:(/kg 2024 2009 1210 9 24 H2 2023-2.8%24 25 6/kg Wind 1 1+2 ROE 30%350 051015202530354022省 市 生猪均价 预测猪价 2024 2009 1210 10 400-600 200-300 3 1-2 2014 2015-2016 20 4 5 2 2024 2009 1210 11/2024 3511/8185/21303/7/18143 21303 42119 10215 45299 16327 14760 22922 2937 2734 626 610 720 710 145 22 7008 8185 9234 3311 7075 5750 5598 7537 6142 6805 6629 2745 4576 4789 4798 6758 3966 3511 786 1126 2132 6214 1884 4469/57%43%9%34%30%108%34%59%/22%16%2%11%5%38%13%19%2023 3966 3511 786 1126 2132 6214 1884 4469 2024 3437 3172 637 1658 4117 1681 3128 Wind 2023.12.06 1 300 300 30 60 200 30 10 30 20 30 10 40 2 8 yoy Q3 Q3/kg 2022 2023E 2024E 2022 2023E 2024E 23(24(6,120 6,325 7,000 52%3%11%2,221 3,511 3,172 300.9 14.5 1,791 2,600 3,000 29%45%15%1,331 3,966 4,437 160 16.2 1,461 1,700 2,100 41%16%24%434 786 2,065 85 16.3 410 470 600 19%15%28%88 1,233 1,466 25-26 16+203 280 330 26%38%18%115 1,884 3,474 14 16.4 9 183 350 500 311%91%43%156 4,469 3,128 19.8 6 17+244 289 350 3%18%21%287 3,029 8,041 23 17+216 350 450 40%62%29%105 2,132 2,325 16 17.2 126 135 200 18%7%48%56 3,383 2,784 6+7 16.9 442 650-3%47%-73 1,126 32 17+2024 2009 1210 12 52 65 100 42%25%54%56 6,240 5,616 4+17.8*ST 845-43%95 1,120 22 6 337 369 488 7%6%32%71 1,124 1,465 24+6 153 265 400 76%73%51%185 6,214 4,617 12.2 8 15.7 10 100 219 419 633%118%91%125 4,359 2,993 13 16.9 126 185 280 856%46%51%106 5,175 3,777 9.8 15.3 9 93 150 250 43%61%67%152 7,456 6,074 6.5 6 16.0 9 Wind 2023.12.06 2024 2009 1210 13 24 1 2022 96 36%20%2023 1 9 35 37%6 0 120 9 10 WOAH 2023 10 3+140%2023 10 11 25 53 2 11 1 1-10 3 11 20 3 145 11 12 USDA 2023.11.30 2023.11.20-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%0204060801001201401601802005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023E祖代 更新 量（万 套）yoy0%40%80%024681012141618祖代更新 量（万 套）进口引种 占比 2024 2009 1210 14 2 2022 36%AA+/60%20/13 2023 1-9 14 2023 1-9 11 9 44 40%15/16 9 AA+/罗斯308,20%利丰,13.67%科宝,24.72%圣泽901,20.09%沃德188,12.70%广明2 号,8.94%AA+/罗斯308,35.35%利丰,24.45%科宝,19.13%圣泽901,15.02%沃德188,3.11%广明2 号,2.94%01020304050607080050010001500200025002021存栏 2022存栏 2023存栏2021价格 2022价格 2023价格012345671 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 53周元/羽2022 2023 成本 2024 2009 1210 15 3 2023 2023 10+11%2022 14/1980 2022 20-30 1%3%100 17 1 2019 2020 100 2018-2019 2 0204060801001202015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023E 2030E亿羽 2024 2009 1210 16 18/kg Wind 19 20 2 45%AA+/20/0.1 1 1-2 21/AA+/308 901 188/2023 1 70-80 60-70 70 52-55 40-65 40-50 50 30-35 25 20-22 2023 2 70-75 55-70 70 52-55 40-60 35-45 40 30 25 20-22 2023 3 70-75 65-75 70 60 40-55 35-45 35 25-30 30 23-25 2023 4 80 75-80 80 65-68 50-65 45-55 45 35-38 30 27 53.61 01020304050607080901 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 53周元/套2019 2020 2021 2022 20230246810121 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 53周元/羽2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2009 1210 17 2023 5 80 75-78 80 63-68 65 55-60 40 35 35 25 2023 6 75-80 70-78 80 63-68 40-65 40-60 35 35 28 22 2023 7 75-80 65-78 80 50-65 40-65 35-60 35 30 28 25 2023 8 75-80 65-80 80 50-65 40-65 45-55 35 28 22/Wind 2 54%23 2012.2-2013.4 38.36%-15.58%25.23%-30.39%2013.4-2015.10 377.07%-205.68%200.61%540.91%53.54%2015.10-2017.2 111.06%100.36%81.47%162.42%170.51%49.62%2017.2-2020.2 496.59%117.51%179.83%394.79%191.11%126.99%2020.2-40.45%16.46%16.53%12.83%18.65%54.00%Wind 2023.11.20 0.002.004.006.008.0010.0012.0014.002019-102019-122020-022020-042020-062020-082020-102020-122021-022021-042021-062021-082021-102021-122022-022022-042022-062022-082022-102022-122023-022023-042023-062023-082023-10主产区平均价 益生鸡苗价格 2024 2009 1210 18 24 2023/24 8/9 70%2023/24 6.2/6.5 70%25-100%-50%0%50%100%益生股份父母代、商品代鸡苗毛利率 民和股份商品代鸡苗毛利率仙坛股份商品代肉鸡毛利率 禾丰牧业屠宰加工毛利率圣农发展肉鸡毛利率 仙坛股份鸡肉产品毛利率民和股份鸡肉制品毛利率0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%0100002000030000400005000060000700008000090000100000 2019 2024E 2024 2009 1210 19 1 3 1-9 6 94.13 5.8%15.10 17.4%7-9 36.3 5.4%6.1%5.56 3.3%26.7%3 M5-90 26 3%pct yoy yoy yoy yoy 8.27 20.5%3.57 26.1%73.8%0.9 43.2%1.9 6.91 3.0%0.15-43.7%21.2%0.8 2.2%-1.8 9.29 12.5%1.79 34.8%61.7%-1.3 19.3%3.2 41.59 0.8%3.97-0.9%20.7%-1.0 8.7%-1.2 12.19 10.0%2.88 37.2%60.1%6.6 23.4%5.0 15.87 7.5%2.74 17.5%50.9%3.2 18.6%1.2 94.13 5.8%15.10 17.4%48.1%1.5 19.2%1.4 27 3%pct yoy yoy yoy yoy 2.96 0.9%1.18-4.9%74.1%1.0 40.0%-2.4 2.42-11.7%-0.01-105.1%19.1%-3.1-0.4%-7.7 3.14 0.3%0.62 17.2%61.5%-2.6 19.6%2.8 16.51 8.0%1.28-10.7%20.2%0.0 7.0%-1.4 5.34 14.5%1.54 46.4%63.2%7.1 28.7%6.8 5.93 4.3%0.95 2.4%49.2%2.6 17.1%-0.9 36.30 5.4%5.56 3.3%47.9%0.8 18.7%-0.5 2024 2009 1210 20 2 3 129/3-0.99%2019Q4 3 2000 28 29 30 3 31%3 21 20%30%40%50%60%70%2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 20%30%40%50%60%70%80%2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2024 2009 1210 21 2 2023.11.15 VPI 65.07 20.4%21 10 36%50%30%32 33/kg 34/kg 35/kg 2022 40%30%GMP 2023.11.30 1675 GMP 60657075808590952022.1.52022.1.312022.2.232022.3.232022.4.132022.5.42022.5.252022.6.222022.7.132022.8.32022.8.312022.9.212022.10.192022.11.92022.11.302022.12.212023.1.112023.2.152023.3.82023.4.52023.4.262023.5.242023.6.142023.7.52023.7.262023.8.232023.9.132023.10.112023.10.31VPI 3504004505005506006507002022.1.52022.2.92022.3.92022.4.132022.5.112022.6.152022.7.132022.8.102022.9.142022.10.192022.11.162022.12.142023.1.112023.2.222023.3.292023.4.262023.5.312023.6.282023.7.262023.8.302023.9.272023.10.31 2003004005006002022.1.52022.2.92022.3.92022.4.132022.5.112022.6.152022.7.132022.8.102022.9.142022.10.192022.11.162022.12.142023.1.112023.2.222023.3.292023.4.262023.5.312023.6.282023.7.262023.8.302023.9.272023.10.31 4505005506006507002022.1.52022.2.92022.3.92022.4.132022.5.112022.6.152022.7.132022.8.102022.9.142022.10.192022.11.162022.12.142023.1.112023.2.222023.3.292023.4.262023.5.312023.6.282023.7.262023.8.302023.9.272023.10.31 2024 2009 1210 22 36 2022 37 2022 38 4 5-8 100 4 0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%20%25%30%35%40%45%50%55%60%65%70%2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2024 2009 1210 23 39 2019 8+40 41 2012-2022 2018 2019 5 mRNA 6%7%8%9%10%11%12%2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 01020304050607080902012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2024 2009 1210 24 42 43 Ad2 mRNA RNA 2022 165 44%10%“”8 701 9 10 2024 2024 2009 1210 25 44 RPVF0304+RPVF0207+RPVF0110 WX+SH14+0918 HBX05+BJS01+BJH13 WH 2017+LZ 2016+CS 2016 2022 21 45 46 47 48 5 05101520252012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 051015202530354045 051015202530 024681012141618 5 2024 2009 1210 26 49 2022Q1-2023Q3 Wind PE-TTM 10 20%50 PE-TTM Wind 1525354555657585 2024 2009 1210 27 1 2023 11 21 2701/4162/2989/4895/8.09%12.76%7.02%9.73%51/52/Wind Wind 53/54/Wind Wind 23/24 USDA11 1 23/24/277/20.5/77.62/137 22/23-0.07%/+1.08%/+3.16%/-0.52%2 23/24/66.5%/28.0%/87.5%22/23-2.46pct/-1.05 pct/-6.27 pct 55 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 19/20 20/21 21/22 22/23 23/24 224.63 263.61 259.07 257.17 260.78 260.67 272.55 277.2 277 50.9%87.5%84.6%76.7%72.1%72.2%71.9%68.9%66.5%100015002000250030003500:200025003000350040004500500055006000:20002200240026002800300032003400:30003500400045005000550060006500:2024 2009 1210 28 11.79 13.64 15.28 15.97 18.09 19.6 16.4 20.28 20.5 17.8%20.0%21.7%19.1%24.5%27.6%27.0%29.0%28.0%71.28 67.32 72.47 73.66 69.62 75.24 77.62 130.19 133.27 134.33 131.43 133.6 134.25 136.95 138 137 86.6%96.6%108.4%111.8%119.1%96.1%95.8%93.8%87.5%USDA USDA 1 23/24/22/23+5.51%/+7.32%/+4.94%/-0.95%2 23/24/26.1%/30.2%/6.2%/32.6%22/23+0.52pct/+2.62pct/+0.62pct/-1.39pct 56 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 19/20 20/21 21/22 22/23 23/24 972.21 1123.41 1080.09 1124.92 1120.13 1129.29 1217.46 1157.08 1220.79 22.1%32.4%31.3%28.0%27.0%25.6%25.9%25.6%26.1%313.77 349.31 342.09 361.04 339.97 368.52 360.43 372.24 399.5 25.0%28.9%29.3%33.3%27.0%27.5%26.9%27.5%30.2%215.96 225.55 232.45 233.87 245.5 247.81 246.75 246.46 258.63 6.1%5.9%5.9%5.9%6.4%5.8%6.8%5.6%6.2%735.21 756.4 762.88 731 762.37 774.55 781.01 789.49 781.98 34.1%35.5%38.2%38.6%39.7%37.1%34.4%34.0%32.6%USDA 11 2024 57 58 Wind Wind 0100200300400500600700800900CBOT/0100200300400500600CBOT/2024 2009 1210 29 59 60 Wind Wind 2 2023 H1 15/kg 2023 10 8 9 30/50%61 62 Wind Wind 63 64 02004006008001,0001,2001,400CBOT/05001,0001,5002,000CBOT/-1000-50005001000150020002500300035002010-01-082010-12-102011-08-122012-05-182012-12-212013-08-092014-03-282014-10-312015-06-052016-01-152016-08-192017-04-072017-11-102018-06-222019-01-252019-09-132020-05-012020-12-042021-07-162022-02-182022-09-162023-05-05/-2000-10000100020003000:/010,00020,00030,00040,00050,00060,000 0.001,000.002,000.003,000.004,000.005,000.006,000.002009/1/12009/10/12010/7/12011/4/12012/1/12012/10/12013/7/12014/4/12015/1/12015/10/12016/7/12017/4/12018/1/12018/10/12019/7/12020/4/12021/1/12021/10/12022/7/12023/4/1:2024 2009 1210 30 2023 2024 23264 5.3%10660 10.3%2386 0.2%6882 4.9%1876 9.3%1203 3.0%65 Wind 66 67 68 69 05001000150020002500300035002010-012010-062010-112011-042011-092012-022012-072012-122013-052013-102014-032014-082015-012015-062015-112016-042016-092017-022017-072017-122018-052018-102019-032019-082020-012020-062020-112021-042021-092022-022022-072022-122023-052023-10饲料产量（万吨）2024 2009 1210 31 2023 1-9 3.74/kg 3.49/kg 3.92/kg 5.47/kg 1.8%3.4%2.8%4.7%70 71 72 73 2022 10 17381 57.5%10 10 10-100 7 2022 20 2021 6%2.002.503.003.504.002020-052020-082020-112021-022021-052021-082021-112022-022022-052022-082022-112023-022023-052023-08配 合 饲料(育肥 猪)：元/kg2.002.503.003.504.002020-052020-082020-112021-022021-052021-082021-112022-022022-052022-082022-112023-022023-052023-08配 合 饲料(蛋鸡 高峰)：元/kg2.002.503.003.504.004.502020-052020-082020-112021-022021-052021-082021-112022-022022-052022-082022-112023-022023-052023-08配 合 饲料(肉大 鸡)：元/kg4.004.505.005.506.002020-052020-082020-112021-022021-052021-082021-112022-022022-052022-082022-112023-022023-052023-08配 合 饲料(鲤鱼 成鱼)：元/kg 2024 2009 1210 32 74 75 10 50%Wind 05001,0001,5002,0002,5003,0002015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 40%45%50%55%60%65%40050060070080090010002017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 10 2024 2009 1210 33 2022 2022 2706 23.16%5119 6536 1372 50.7%69.63%76 10 77 50%+Euromonitor 2022 CR10 7 2021 78 2020-2023 618 11 11 618 05001,0001,5002,0002,5003,000中国城镇宠物消费规模（亿元）69.63%26.23%4.14%宠物主粮 宠物零食 宠物营养品 2024 2009 1210 34 79 2021 Euromonitor 80 2022%81%23 8 16 22 20.39 17.46+01234567891001234562013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022乖宝宠物 中宠股份上海依蕴 华兴宠物 2024 2009 1210 35 82 83 OEM/ODM 84 2018-2023H1 85 2018-2023H1 waggin train 0%5%10%15%20%25%-0.200.20.40.60.811.21.41.6归母净利润（亿元，左轴）汇兑损益（亿元，左轴）毛利率（右轴）0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%-0.7-0.20.30.81.31.8归母净利 润（亿 元，左 轴）汇兑损益（亿元，左轴）毛利率（右轴）2024 2009 1210 36 2024 2009 1210 37 2022 2019 2020 2019 2022 2019 2022 2022 2024 2009 1210 38 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-66500808 010-66500821 010-63214682 0755-82828570 0755-83715428 0755-82756804 0755-82871425 0755-82871425 021-20572536 021-20572555 021-20572257-2552 021-20572506 021-20572585 021-20572509 021-20572548 021-20572573 0755-82756805 021-20572559 021-20572559 0755-82756805 021-20572559 玙 021-25072549 2024 2009 1210 39 A 300 500/6 20%6 10%20%6-10%10%6 10%20%3-6 5%3-6-5%5%3-6 5%000876 26 C 3A 1061 A 19 33 12 100033 518034 200120 010-66500801 0755-82027731 021-20572500 010-66500900 0755-82828562 021-20572522