请 务必阅读 正文之 后的信 息披露 和重要声 明 industryId investSuggestion EPS 23E 24E 3.27 3.43 2.35 2.51 2.99 3.32 2.62 2.84 2.44 2.61 relatedReport 44 11.26-12.02 43 11.19-11.25 42 11.12-11.18 emailAuthor S0190521010002 assAuthor summary 2023 2023 2018 2021 2024 60%2023 1 2 ROE 3 title 2024 createTime1 2023 12 5 请 务必阅读 正文之 后的信 息披露 和重要声 明-2-1.-4-1.1 1.5.-4-1.2.-5-2.-8-2.1.-8-2.2.-12-2.3 CR3 90%.-14-2.4.-17-3.-18-3.1.-18-3.2.-19-3.3.-20-3.4.-23-4.-24-4.1 ROE.-24-4.2.-27-4.3 23Q3.-28-5.-30-5.1.-30-5.2.-31-6.-32-1 1.5pct.-4-2 14.-4-3 Q5500/.-4-4/.-4-5/.-5-6 2023 Q5500/.-5-7.-6-8.-6-9 2023/.-6-10.-6-11 247.-6-12.-7-13.-7-14 2023-2024.-8-15 2023.-9-16.-10-17.-10-18 2023 1-8.-11-19 2023.-11-20 2023.-12-21 GDP.-12-22.-12-23 2023Q1-Q3 5.8%.-13-XVDWxOqNpMmNpRnOmRrOpOaQ8QbRmOqQsQmPkPoPmOjMpPoQ9PqQwPMYrQmOMYmOoQ 请 务必阅读 正文之 后的信 息披露 和重要声 明-3-24 2023Q1-Q3 0.3pct.-13-25 2023Q1-Q3.-13-26 2023Q1-Q3.-13-27 2023 1-9.-14-28.-14-29/.-14-30.-15-31.-15-32 GDP 5%.-15-33.-15-34.-15-35.-16-36.-16-37.-16-38.-16-39 19%.-18-40.-19-41.-19-42.-19-43 247.-19-44 2018.-20-45 2023 1-9.-20-46.-21-47 9/.-21-48.-21-49.-21-50.-22-51.-22-52%.-22-53.-24-54.-24-55.-24-56.-24-57 2 Beta.-25-58.-25-59.-26-60 ROE.-26-61 2023.-27-62 2023.-27-63 2022.-27-64 2023Q3.-28-65.-28-66 2023Q3.-28-67 2023Q3.-28-68 2023Q3.-29-69 2023Q3.-29-70 2023Q3.-29-71.-32-请 务必阅读 正文之 后的信 息披露 和重要声 明-4-1 1.1 1.5 2023 1 1 11 1 1.5 2023 11 1 Q5500 953/18.9%2310/16.0%995/31.1%2023 1 1 11 1-3.6%-2.1%1.5 14 1 1.5pct 2 14 iFinD=-iFinD 2023/1/1-2023/11/01 3 Q5500/4/iFinD iFinD-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11-2.1%-3.6%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%728 713 5005506006507007508001 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2020 2021 2022 2023 4009001,4001,9002,4002,9003,4003,9004,4002022-01 2022-04 2022-07 2022-10 2023-01 2023-04 2023-07 2023-10 Q5500/请 务必阅读 正文之 后的信 息披露 和重要声 明-5-5/2023/01/01 2023/11/01 Q5500 1175 953-18.9%Q4500 920 705-23.4%2180 2010-7.8%2450 2140-12.7%2750 2310-16.0%2035 1675-17.7%:(2):2072 1384-33.2%1445 995-31.1%Wind iFinD 1.2 2023 1-2 1000/1200/3 770/6-7 8 1000/10 11 6 2023 Q5500/iFinD 20040060080010001200140016002023-01 2023-02 2023-03 2023-04 2023-05 2023-06 2023-07 2023-08 2023-09 2023-10 2023-11():5500:1 2 1000/2 2.22 1200/3 5 5 770/6 7 8 10 1000/11 10 请 务必阅读 正文之 后的信 息披露 和重要声 明-6-7 8 5 1800/6-7 2150/9 9 2023/iFinD 10 11 247 iFinD iFinD 3576.1 1500200025003000350040001 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2020 2021 2022 20239337.5 3,0004,0005,0006,0007,0008,0009,00010,0001 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2020 2021 2022 20238001200160020002400280032002023-01 2023-02 2023-03 2023-04 2023-05 2023-06 2023-07 2023-08 2023-09 2023-10 2023-11:():1 2500/2 3 4 5 5 6 7 7 9 11 12.0 81012141618201 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 247 2021 2022 2023 10.6810121416182022241 2 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 230 2020 2021 2022 2023 请 务必阅读 正文之 后的信 息披露 和重要声 明-7-2023 Q3 2023 1-9 11616-9.2%+0.6%/-15.0%/-12.4%+0.4%/-8.0%/-0.8%2023 1529-26.6%+5.1%/-48.3%/-27.3%+62.6%/-30.2%/-2.4%2023 12 13 iFinD iFinD 4077443942364044410137733,742.129.4%27.6%1.6%-11.2%0.6%-15.0%-12.4%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%320036004000440048002022Q1 2022Q2 2022Q3 2022Q4 2023Q1 2023Q2 2023Q3 59084858839163344943883.6%110.2%27.3%-4.8%5.1%-48.3%-27.3%-80%-40%0%40%80%120%020040060080010002022Q1 2022Q2 2022Q3 2022Q4 2023Q1 2023Q2 2023Q3 请 务必阅读 正文之 后的信 息披露 和重要声 明-8-2 2.1 1.4 2027 2021 2021 2023-2024 1.4 2000 2023 20 1.923 1.78 2023-2027 Mysteel 2022 50.5 20 2023-2027 3.5%0.7%20 2027 2023 5880 2021 3 80%14 2023-2024/1750 4555 4200 2500 330 180 150 120 90 90 13965 请 务必阅读 正文之 后的信 息披露 和重要声 明-9-15 2023/90 60 30 50 150 300 300 130 60 400 300 300 200 500 300 200 40 60 30 600 800 90 120 60 60 30 30 30 120 120 30 260 30-5880 2014 2023 6 10 请 务必阅读 正文之 后的信 息披露 和重要声 明-10-16 iFinD 2021 11 2023Q3 11.4 1.7%11.411.5 2021Q4 17 iFinD 1-8 2023 1-8 30.5+3.4%1-7 0.2 8 8.98 8.01 4.99 2.80 3785+4.4%1183+1.5%640+1.3%2545+10.0%123012081342-24.2%-1.7%8.6%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%040080012001600200024002800 11.4 10.8 11.1 11.2 11.8 11.5 11.5 11.4-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%024681012142016Q12016Q22016Q32016Q42017Q12017Q22017Q32017Q42018Q12018Q22018Q32018Q42019Q12019Q22019Q32019Q42020Q12020Q22020Q32020Q42021Q12021Q22021Q32021Q42022Q12022Q22022Q32022Q42023Q12023Q22023Q3 21Q4 请 务必阅读 正文之 后的信 息披露 和重要声 明-11-18 2023 1-8 19 2023 2023.1.27 4 3 6 2023.2.22 2 2 2023.4.24 32 30 2 2023.6.15 3 6 15 2023.9.24 16 89,802 80,079 49,870 27,992 4.4%-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%010,00020,00030,00040,00050,00060,00070,00080,00090,000100,000 1-8 请 务必阅读 正文之 后的信 息披露 和重要声 明-12-20 2023 7 11 8“”9 90/2023 12 2024 4 2.2 2023 GDP 4.9%8.64%21 GDP 22 iFinD iFinD 2023+8.8%+6.5%+5.2%2023 1-9 4.64 5.8%70.1%2022 0.3 3944+67.3%4.90-10-505101520GDP:%8.64-7.80-40-30-20-10010203040%请 务必阅读 正文之 后的信 息披露 和重要声 明-13-23 2023Q1-Q3 5.8%24 2023Q1-Q3 0.3pct iFinD iFinD 25 2023Q1-Q3 26 2023Q1-Q3 Wind iFinD 5.8%-10.1%13.4%6.0%11.3%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%01000020000300004000050000 2023 1-9 火电,70.1%水电,13.0%风电,8.8%核电,4.9%光伏,3.3%2023年1-9 月发电量结构8.8%4.5%-0.7%5.2%6.5%10.8%-2%0%2%4%6%8%10%12%04000080000120000160000200000240000 2023 1-9 3944 788 3348 119 12894 67.3%-50.4%74.0%-47.8%145.1%-100%-50%0%50%100%150%200%02000400060008000100001200014000 2023 1-9 请 务必阅读 正文之 后的信 息披露 和重要声 明-14-2.3 CR3 90%1-9 2.61 77.6%92.3%27 2023 1-9 2023Q1-Q3 2022Q1-Q3 YoY 16,209 62.1%11,348 42.8%42.6%4,607 17.7%2,477 86.0%18.7%3,266 12.5%69 4662.6%28.0%1,119 4.3%211 429.2%8.0%898 3.4%590 52.2%2.7%26,099 100.0%14,694 77.6%100.0%Mysteel=/28 29/Mysteel Wind=-1.8 GDP 5%10 29 220 8.4%2023 10 29 1883 3,091 3,334 3,020 01,0002,0003,0004,0001 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2021 2022 2023-100-50050100150200250300350400400800120016002000240028002022-09 2022-11 2023-01 2023-03 2023-05 2023-07 2023-09 2023-11-:(A10%,V41%,0.6%S,Q5500):(A20%,V28%,0.7%S,Q5500):():(A14%,V28%,0.6%S,Q5500)请 务必阅读 正文之 后的信 息披露 和重要声 明-15-30 31 4 3 4 3 32 GDP 5%iFinD 33 34 Bloomberg Bloomberg 2021 2022+8.9%+12.0%7788934288.7%14.8%12.1%-4%0%4%8%12%16%02004006008001000 51 57 56 21 164 152 182 67 050100150200250300 6.1%7.8%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%:GDP:1,883 01000200030004000500060001 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2020 2021 2022 2023 1201401601802002202402601 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2022 2023 请 务必阅读 正文之 后的信 息披露 和重要声 明-16-2011 2021-2022 2022 8 IEA 2025 35 36 EI EIA 1=0.90718474 IEA 2019 2021 2022-0.9%-3.7%2023 1-9 IEA 2025 37 38 iFinD 614.0687.4489.0-8.5%8.9%12.0%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%0200400600800 535.4 577.4 594.2 392.6-24.2%7.8%2.9%-1.1%-30%-25%-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%020040060080010001200 540 520 257-0.9%-3.7%-2.0%-12%-8%-4%0%4%8%0100200300400500600700 4344392808.6%1.1%1.2%-12%-8%-4%0%4%8%12%0100200300400500 请 务必阅读 正文之 后的信 息披露 和重要声 明-17-2.4 请 务必阅读 正文之 后的信 息披露 和重要声 明-18-3 3.1 395 2016 3073 19%395 13%3073 24%13%39 19%1/3 2018 2022 37.4%2018 3 13/1 1300/2.7%2021 2022 45.6 9.0%4.94 0.7%2023 1-9 3.72 1.9%13101 81%1414 46%738 24%399 13%,492 16%31 1%3073 19%请 务必阅读 正文之 后的信 息披露 和重要声 明-19-40 41 iFinD=/iFinD 3.2 1-9 7.95+1.7%247 6.56+5.7%11 3 247 241.4 42 43 247 iFinD iFinD 2023 11 10 952 2018 12.0%247 748 2018 7.0%+2146 2018 8.3%32.2%31.1%30.1%30.9%31.2%30.4%28.9%29.0%40.5%40.7%40.8%40.4%39.9%39.1%37.4%37.2%25%30%35%40%45%0.3%1.9%5.8%0.9%1.0%0.7%1.9%3.2%5.2%4.2%0.9%4.7%9.0%3.0%0%2%4%6%8%10%0100002000030000400005000060000 8,210.8 0200040006000800010000120003 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2023 2022 2021 2020 241.41902102302502701 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12(247)2021 2022 2023 请 务必阅读 正文之 后的信 息披露 和重要声 明-20-44 2018 Mysteel 3.3 2023 1-9 7314 61.0%79.3%171 2.3%2021 2 050010001500200025003000350040004500 247 45 2023 1-9 2023Q1-Q3 2022Q1-Q3 YoY 3771 51.6%1634 130.8%77.1%2029 27.7%1481 37.0%19.8%559 7.6%615-9.1%-2.0%411 5.6%394 4.5%0.6%290 4.0%165 75.8%4.5%171 2.3%217-21.2%-1.7%83 1.1%38 116.7%1.6%7314 100.0%4543 61.0%100.0%=/请 务必阅读 正文之 后的信 息披露 和重要声 明-21-1-9 3771 130.8%50%46 47 9/Wind=-48 49 2,377 1,404 2,561 3,771 673 1,074 2,100 2,029 3,536 617 217 171 0100020003000400050006000700080002020 2021 2022 2023 1-9-1,000-50005001,0001,5002,0002,5001,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,0004,5005,0002022-01 2022-04 2022-07 2022-10 2023-01 2023-04 2023-07 2023-10()3369373755538.6%-21.4%-23.2%10.9%172.90%-40%0%40%80%120%160%200%010002000300040005000600070008000 171.8 167.0 160.5 76.6-6.8%-2.8%-3.9%-5.0%-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%050100150200 请 务必阅读 正文之 后的信 息披露 和重要声 明-22-World Steel 2022 1.06 2020 18.91%2021 75.5 232.6 1081.2 1/14 World Steel 125 82 50 51 Mysteel World Steel 2021 2020-2022 7.7%2023 1-9 1.04 11.6%World Steel 2023 2024 7.3%6.2%1000 52%2022 2023E 2024E-3.5 2.0 0.0 8.2 7.3 6.2-2.6 1.3 2.5-4.2 4.0 1.2-8.6 2.9 2.0-5.0-5.0-7.0-2.6 9.0 6.0-11.0-2.2 10.0-5.6-0.9 3.5-2.8 2.5 2.6-3.2 2.3 1.7 World Steel 111.4 100.3 118.2 125.4 104.1 1.9%-10.0%17.9%6.1%11.6%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%04080120160200 13.86%-5.66%10.11%31.47%13.05%11.49%4.26%20.33%1.97%21.33%16.84%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%0200400600800100012002021 请 务必阅读 正文之 后的信 息披露 和重要声 明-23-3.4 2018 请 务必阅读 正文之 后的信 息披露 和重要声 明-24-4 4.1 ROE 2021 2016 53 54 iFinD 2023 11 16 iFinD 55 56 iFinD 2016 2980%iFinD 0%5%10%15%20%25%30%2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%020004000600080001000012000140001600018000-140%-100%-60%-20%20%60%100%050010001500200025003000-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%0500100015002000250030003500400045005000 请 务必阅读 正文之 后的信 息披露 和重要声 明-25-57 2 Beta iFinD 11 15 Beta 24 60%2023 Wind 2023 6%58/2022 2023 2023E 2023E 60%2023-2025 69.15%60%206.1 1,296.9 9.5%60%2023-2025 35.18%60%40.9 266.3 9.2%60%(2024-2026)63.89%60%55.3 362.0 9.2%60%(2022-2024 60.17%60%237.1 1,903.1 7.5%60%2022-2024 72.77%60%632.6 5,930.0 6.4%30%2022-2024 37.16%30%66.4 396.5 5.0%20%30.02%20%202.0 1,123.9 3.6%30%2021-2023 30.02%10%59.0 316.0 1.9%30%60.17%10%97.6 659.6 1.5%30%2021-2023 63.54%10%78.0 552.4 1.4%30%2021-2023 28.11%10%44.3 326.1 1.4%30%34.64%10%29.5 222.3 1.3%Wind iFinD 2023 Wind 12 5 2023E PB ROE 2023 11 10 PB 1.3 2023 0.40.60.81.01.21.41.615%25%35%45%55%Beta 请 务必阅读 正文之 后的信 息披露 和重要声 明-26-ROE 7.87%2009 ROE ROE 59 iFinD-2023 2023 11 10 60 ROE iFinD 01234567-2%0%2%4%6%8%10%PB-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%40050060070080090010001100 5500/ROE 请 务必阅读 正文之 后的信 息披露 和重要声 明-27-4.2 2023 2022 61 2023 2023.1.6 2023 1 4 3175.59 2.0%2023.8.31 2023 8 31 6 A 12/1-2 2023.10.17 12 A 5000 2023.10.20 12 A 5 6 33.10/2023.10.27 12 A 2 3 25/2023.11.3 6 1 2 9.81/62 2023 2023.7.17 2023 7 17 9046.3 4.28%2023.8.24 2023 8 24 6 26 39 2023.11.1 2023 11 1 2026.21 9.12%63 2022 2022.9.20 30 2022.12.2 30 20 10 2023.3.14 29 26 3 2023.10.18 100 2023.11.1 20 请 务必阅读 正文之 后的信 息披露 和重要声 明-28-4.3 23Q3 2023 243 24+11.1%2023Q3 31 21 64 2023Q3 65 iFinD 2023 9 30 iFinD 2023 9 30 2023Q3 2023 0.93%0.16 0.91 2023Q3 0.70%0.70 0.21%0.13 0.02%0.08 66 2023Q3 67 2023Q3 iFinD 2023 9 30 iFinD 2023 9 30 2430500100015002000250030003500400045005000 2023Q3243 15 13 15 29 58 52 93 217 11 115-1624 29-4-30-0-122-250-8 0100200300400500 1.85%0.93%0.0%0.4%0.8%1.2%1.6%2.0%2.4%A 1.40%0.70%0.0%0.4%0.8%1.2%1.6%2.0%A 请 务必阅读 正文之 后的信 息披露 和重要声 明-29-68 2023Q3 69 2023Q3 iFinD 2023 9 30 iFinD 2023 9 30 2023Q3 6740 3933 3293 2295 2061 0.7%0.2%1.7%0.3%1.2%2022 60.2%72.8%63.9%69.2%70 2023Q3 56.46 190 6740-32099 52.73 150 3933-1872 40.40 62 3293-1853 18.15 54 2295-332 14.98 45 2061-295 9.49 41 1852-225 9.22 30 1717-29 8.04 26 1228-2 6.84 25 1026-4.98 21 887-iFinD 0.35%0.21%0.0%0.1%0.2%0.3%0.4%0.5%A 0.10%0.02%0.00%0.05%0.10%0.15%0.20%A 请 务必阅读 正文之 后的信 息披露 和重要声 明-30-5 5.1 2023 2023 2018 2021 2024 60%2023 Wind 2023 12 5 请 务必阅读 正文之 后的信 息披露 和重要声 明-31-5.2 1 2 ROE 3 2023-2025 649.7/680.9/700.1-6.7%/+4.8%/+2.8%EPS 3.27/3.43/3.52 12 5 PE 9.6/9.1/8.9“”2023-2025 228.04/242.98/260.24-35.1%/+6.6%/+7.1%EPS 2.35/2.51/2.68 12 5 PE 8.4/7.8/7.3 ROE 60%2023-2025 59.33/65.75/73.25-15.0%/+10.8%/+11.4%EPS 2.99/3.32/3.69 12 5 PE 6.1/5.5/4.9 2023-2025 194.77/211.64/258.00-36.7%/+8.7%/+21.9%EPS 2.62/2.84/3.47 12 5 PE 7.7/7.1/5.8 2023-2025 60.57/64.64/74.10-13.6%/+6.7%/+14.6%EPS 2.44/2.61/2.99 12 5 PE 6.5/6.1/5.3 请 务必阅读 正文之 后的信 息披露 和重要声 明-32-71()EPS PE PB 2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E 2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E 601088.SH 5930 3.50 3.27 3.43 3.52 8.9 9.6 9.1 8.9 1.6 601225.SH 1903 3.62 2.35 2.51 2.68 5.4 8.4 7.8 7.3 2.2 600546.SH 362 3.52 2.99 3.32 3.69 5.2 6.1 5.5 4.9 2.3 600188.SH 1297 4.14 2.62 2.84 3.47 4.9 7.7 7.1 5.8 2.9 600985.SH 396 2.83 2.44 2.61 2.99 5.6 6.5 6.1 5.3 1.1 iFinD 2023/12/5 6 请 务必阅读 正文之 后的信 息披露 和重要声 明-33-12 300 50 500 15%5%15%-5%5%-5%/1934 15a-6/36 15 200135 6 SK 32 01-08 100020 5001 T2 52 518035