Table_IndNameRptType 行业研 究/深 度报 告 Table_IndRank 2023-12-02 Table_Chart 300 Table_Author S0010522080002 S0010121070002 S0010122060011 Table_Report 1.2023-11-19 2.2023-11-13 3.2023-11-05 主要观 点：Table_Summary 2023 11 30-10.77%31 21/+13.2%/+5.0%/-5.8%/-11.7%/-39%/14.2%/14%2023 177.2 2023 1-8 7408 26.1%USGS 2022 460 2023 10 CPI 24Q2 AI/42%/25%3C 3C/&AI-28%-18%-8%2%12%21%11/22 2/23 5/23 8/23 300Table_CompanyRptType 敬请参阅末页重要声明及评级说明 2/36 证券研究报告 24E/M+1&3C/0YFUxOmRpMmNtNpMqNtMrQ8OcM9PtRmMsQmPeRrQpNeRrRnR6MpOpOuOrQnMxNpOpPTable_CompanyRptType 敬请参阅末页重要声明及评级说明 3/36 证券研究报告 1.6 2.7 2.1.7 2.2.9 2.3.11 3.13 4:AI.16 4.1.16 4.2 3C.22 4.3&.26 5:.32 5.1.32 5.2.33.35 Table_CompanyRptType 敬请参阅末页重要声明及评级说明 4/36 证券研究报告 1.6 2%.6 3%.7 4%.7 5%.7 6%.7 7 2022 2023Q3/.8 8.8 9.8 10 KG.9 11%.9 12/.9 13 ICSG.10 14.11 15.11 16 2022/.11 17 2022.12 18 2022.12 19.12 20.12 21.13 22 2022.13 23/.13 24.14 25.14 26 CME.14 27 2022%.15 28 2022 CPI.15 29.15 30.16 31.17 32 2022.17 33 2022.17 34 2022.18 35 2022.18 36.18 37 5.19 38.19 39.19 40.19 41.20 Table_CompanyRptType 敬请参阅末页重要声明及评级说明 5/36 证券研究报告 42.20 43.20 44.21 45 2030E.21 46 2021-2026.22 47/.22 48.22 49.23 50.23 51.24 52 2019.24 53 2022.24 54.25 55.25 56 3C.25 57.26 58.26 59.27 60 2019-2025E.27 61 2019-2025E.27 62 2019-2025.28 63 2019-2025 LED.28 64 2019-2025.29 65 2019-2025 VCSEL.29 66.29 67 2022.30 68 2016-2021.30 69.30 70 2020.31 71 2019-2026.31 72 2019-2026.31 73 2019-2026.31 74.32 75.32 76.32 77.32 78.33 79.33 80.33 81.33 82 LCE.34 83.34 Table_CompanyRptType 敬请参阅末页重要声明及评级说明 6/36 证券研究报告 1-10.77%2023 11 30-10.77%31 21 300-10.04%3496.2-1.87%3029.67-11.76%9726.92 1 iFinD 2%iFinD-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%300-40.0-30.0-20.0-10.00.010.020.030.0 300 Table_CompanyRptType 敬请参阅末页重要声明及评级说明 7/36 证券研究报告 2023 11 30/+13.2%/+5.0%/-5.8%/-11.7%/-39%/14.2%/14%3%4%iFinD iFinD 2023 11 30+304.37%+120.3%+88.39%-68.2%-52.26%-50.17%5%6%iFinD iFinD 2 2.1 13.2%5.0%-5.8%-11.7%-39.0%-50.0%-40.0%-30.0%-20.0%-10.0%0.0%10.0%20.0%14.2%14.0%0.3%-2.6%-4.0%-11.9%-9.0%-27.0%-30.0%-20.0%-10.0%0.0%10.0%20.0%304.37120.3288.3948.9339.370.050.0100.0150.0200.0250.0300.0350.0-68.20-52.26-50.17-47.08-46.63-80.0-60.0-40.0-20.00.0 Table_CompanyRptType 敬请参阅末页重要声明及评级说明 8/36 证券研究报告 49.4 2023 9 4461.1 4500 2023 177.2 8 9 wind wind 0.45kg 1kg 2602803003203403603801 月2 月3 月4 月5 月6 月7 月8 月9 月10 月11 月12 月2019 年 2020 年 2021 年2022 年 2023 年3800390040004100420043004400450046002019-012019-052019-092020-012020-052020-092021-012021-052021-092022-012022-052022-092023-012023-05 7 2022 2023Q3/wind 15,00016,00017,00018,00019,00020,00021,00022,00023,00024,00025,00022 年1 月22 年2 月22 年3 月22 年4 月22 年5 月22 年6 月22 年7 月22 年8 月22 年9 月22 年10 月22 年11 月22 年12 月23 年1 月23 年2 月23 年3 月23 年4 月23 年5 月23 年6 月23 年7 月23 年8 月23 年9 月Table_CompanyRptType 敬请参阅末页重要声明及评级说明 9/36 证券研究报告 IAI 2030 283.5 地 产用 铝需 求逐 步 回升。2023 4.6%2023 9 19.8%10 kg 11%IAI wind 2.2 2023 2023 2023 0501001502002503002020 2021 2022 2023E 2030E燃油车 纯电动新能源 混动新能源-500501001502019-022019-062019-102020-022020-062020-102021-022021-062021-102022-022022-062022-102023-022023-06房屋竣工面积:累计同比（%）商品房销售额:累计同比（%）12/7,0007,5008,0008,5009,0009,500Table_CompanyRptType 敬请参阅末页重要声明及评级说明 10/36 证券研究报告 2023 30.2 2023 0.6%2023 1-8 7408 26.1%wind 13 ICSG wind 1,6001,7001,8001,9002,0002,1002,2002,3002,4001 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Table_CompanyRptType 敬请参阅末页重要声明及评级说明 11/36 证券研究报告 14 15 SMM 2.3 2023 2023 11 17 21.28/21.33/USGS 2022 460 60%USGS 2022 31.45 30.2%9.5-2002040608002004006008001,0001,2001,4001,6002021 2022 2023E 2024E 46.00%14.20%12.30%8.70%8.20%10.60%16 2022/wind Table_CompanyRptType 敬请参阅末页重要声明及评级说明 12/36 证券研究报告 17 2022 18 2022 USGS USGS ITA 2022 0.34 2023 0.9 19 20 iFinD ITA ITA 2022 48%,17.3%,15.6%,15.1%,12.3%,9.3%,9.1%,8.7%,2.8%,2.8%,0.2%,6.7%,30.2%,23.5%,9.9%,9.2%,6.4%,5.7%,5.7%,9.4%05101520253035 Table_CompanyRptType 敬请参阅末页重要声明及评级说明 13/36 证券研究报告 21 22 2022 ITRI ITA 3 1 2 3 2023 2-3 3 5 7-10 11,49%,12%,18%,7%,5%,9%,48%,23%,14%,14%,1%23/wind Table_CompanyRptType 敬请参阅末页重要声明及评级说明 14/36 证券研究报告 24 25 iFinD iFinD 2023 10 20 2023 10 CPI 24Q2 1.01.21.41.61.82.02.22.42.63.03.54.04.55.05.5%9910010110210310410510610710810121416182022242628 500(VIX):26 CME CME 2023 11 22 Table_CompanyRptType 敬请参阅末页重要声明及评级说明 15/36 证券研究报告 27 2022%28 2022 CPI iFinD iFinD 2022 3649.4 4779.2 2022 70.861 50.63%29 2023 11 17 84.56 20050123456:%:%0%1%2%3%4%5%6%7%8%9%10%270275280285290295300305310:CPI:%Table_CompanyRptType 敬请参阅末页重要声明及评级说明 16/36 证券研究报告 68.09 4:AI 4.1 15 30 wind=/70758085909510015001700190021002300250027002022-01-072022-02-072022-03-072022-04-072022-05-072022-06-072022-07-072022-08-072022-09-072022-10-072022-11-072022-12-072023-01-072023-02-072023-03-072023-04-072023-05-072023-06-072023-07-072023-08-072023-09-072023-10-072023-11-07:/Table_CompanyRptType 敬请参阅末页重要声明及评级说明 17/36 证券研究报告 31 USGS 2022 13000 4400 33.85%80%2022 30 21 70%32 2022 33 2022 USGS USGS 01,0002,0003,0004,0005,000 33.8%16.9%16.2%16.2%5.3%3.2%1.8%6.6%Table_CompanyRptType 敬请参阅末页重要声明及评级说明 18/36 证券研究报告 34 2022 35 2022 USGS USGS 80 90 1990-2005 1985 1994 48%2004 95%2006-2010 2005 2006 2005-2010 6.56 3.03 WTO 2011 2011 5+1 2015 2021 36 USGS 0510152025 70.0%14.3%6.0%4.0%2.4%1.4%1.9%Table_CompanyRptType 敬请参阅末页重要声明及评级说明 19/36 证券研究报告 2018 120000 2023 240000 2018 84%2023 92%2023 166650 67210 3440 2700 69.4%/28%/1.4%/1.1%95%37 5 38 2021 42%USGS/25%/22%18%2021 20.71 9380 2930+16%/+27.2%/+31.2%39 40 USGS 10.0%6.1%20.0%25.0%14.3%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%050,000100,000150,000200,000250,000300,0002018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023-yoy 84.0%85.5%86.3%88.6%90.9%92.0%16.0%14.5%13.7%11.4%9.1%8.0%0%20%40%60%80%100%2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 42%13%9%8%7%6%6%5%5%25%22%18%14%9%6%6%Table_CompanyRptType 20/36 41 20 60 50 42 43 Table_CompanyRptType 21/36 1 5-10kg 2-3kg SPIR 2022 1148 89.1%2030 5456 13.9%7.5kg 2030 41 44 SPIR 45 2030E SPIR 2 GWEC 2022 100.6GW 2026 128.8GW 3 1148545601000200030004000500060002021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E 2028E 2029E 2030ETable_CompanyRptType 22/36 2022 40.17+26.3%2016-2022 CAGR 35.4%46 2021-2026 47/GWEC&4.2 3C 0.61%48 1 72.591.9 89.9 92.294.9 97.421.18.7 12.513.524.531.40501001502021 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E GW GW 6.5111.3712.6814.7921.4931.8140.1722.96-20%0%20%40%60%80%0.0010.0020.0030.0040.0050.00/yoyTable_CompanyRptType 23/36 2 4.51g/cm3 60%50%1.8 3 49 50+70+Ti-Al-V Ti-6Al-4V TC4 Table_CompanyRptType 24/36 51 2019 42%38%2022 50%23%52 2019 53 2022 2022 26 15 57.69%2000 0.22 2022 15.27 CAGR 21.2%42%38%11%3%6%50%23%4%4%3%2%1%1%1%11%Table_CompanyRptType 25/36 54 55 3C 3C IPhone 15 pro AppleWatch Ultra 15 pro Watch 5 pro Magic V2 56 3C IPhone15 Pro 3C 80g 2027E 1 25-27E 2%2 80g TC4 TC4 20/2027E 1.4 28 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%051015202530199419961998200020022004200620082010201220142016201820202022-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%024681012141618 yoyTable_CompanyRptType 26/36 57 IDC 3C/3D 4.3&Si(Ge GaAs lnP GaN SiC 58 Table_CompanyRptType 27/36 1 LED 5G Mini LED Micro LED 59 2025E 3500 2 Yole 2019 2,000 2025 3,500 2019 2 2025 3.48 2019-2025 CAGR 9.67%60 2019-2025E 61 2019-2025E Yole Yole LED 23401934.12423.72814.33033.93285.93548.705001,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,0002019 2020 2021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E 2 20018924027929932234801002003004002019 2020 2021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025ETable_CompanyRptType 28/36 5G 5G 5G 5G 5G Yole 2025 965.70 2019-2025 6.32%2025 9,800 2019-2025 5.03%LED Yole 2019 LED 846.9 2025 LED 1,300 2019 LED 6,800 2025 LED 9,600 2019 3,000 62 2019-2025 63 2019-2025 LED Yole Yole Yole 2025 2019 106.2 330.3 CAGR 20.82%VCSEL Yole 3D VCSEL 2019 VCSEL 93.89 2025 299.32 21.32%0501001500500100015002019 2020 2021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E 2 0501001500500100015002019 2020 2021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E 2 Table_CompanyRptType 29/36 64 2019-2025 65 2019-2025 VCSEL Yole Yole 2 66 2013 60%02040608001002003004002019 2020 2021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E 2 020406001002003004002019 2020 2021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E 2 Table_CompanyRptType 30/36 67 2022 68 2016-2021 USGS Wind 95%3 69 Sumitomo JX Yole 2020 90%Sumitomo 42%36%Yole 2026 128.19 2019-2026 45%41%10%4%126106130 131140 140806094.985.795 950501001502016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Table_CompanyRptType 31/36 14.40%2026 2.02 2019-2026 12.42%70 2020 71 2019-2026 Yole Yole 5G Yole 2026 100 2019-2026 13.94%VR Yole 2026 20.54 2019-2026 35.14%72 2019-2026 73 2019-2026 Yole Yole/42%36%13%9%Sumitomi JX0501001502002500501001502019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2 0501001502000501001502019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2 01020304005101520252019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2 Table_CompanyRptType 32/36 A/D 100 GHz 6G 7G 5:5.1 EV-sales 2022 1052.2 55%13%+4.7pct 2023 2023 10 95.6+33.5%+5.75%23H2 74 75 EV-sales EV-sales 76 77 0%20%40%60%80%100%120%02004006008001000120020122013201420152016201720182019202020212022()YOY0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022全球新能源汽车渗透率0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%0204060801001202019/012019/042019/072019/102020/012020/042020/072020/102021/012021/042021/072021/102022/012022/042022/072022/102023/012023/042023/072023/10新能源汽 车销量 渗透率-50%0%50%100%150%200%2020/012020/032020/052020/072020/092020/112021/012021/032021/052021/072021/092021/112022/012022/032022/052022/072022/092022/112023/012023/032023/052023/072023/09 Table_CompanyRptType 33/36 12 1/3.04/1.99/2400/2580 78 79 80 81 5.2 Wood Mackenzie 2023 23-25 23-25 LCE 50%012345621-0121-0321-0521-0721-0921-1122-0122-0322-0522-0722-0922-1123-0123-0323-0523-0723-0923-11)0.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.521-0121-0321-0521-0721-0921-1122-0122-0322-0522-0722-0922-1123-0123-0323-0523-0723-0923-11 05001,0001,5002,0002,5003,00021-0121-0321-0521-0721-0921-1122-0122-0322-0522-0722-0922-1123-0123-0323-0523-0723-0923-11 05001,0001,5002,0002,5003,00021-0121-0321-0521-0721-0921-1122-0122-0322-0522-0722-0922-1123-0123-0323-0523-0723-0923-11Table_CompanyRptType 34/36 82 LCE Wood Mackenzie 5.3%-6.0%4-5%2%-2.5%2%83 Wood Mackenzie 05001,0001,5002,0002,5002023E 2024E 2025E Table_CompanyRptType 35/36 M+1 2024E/M+1 Table_CompanyRptType 36/36 Table_Reputation Table_RankIntroduction 6 A 300 500 6 5%;6-5%5%;6 5%;6-12 15%6-12 5%15%6-12-5%5%6-12 5%15%6-12 15%