20231204_银河证券_零售&化妆品行业：“双十一”推动四季度销售冲刺维持推荐优质国产化妆品品牌商_25页.pdf
table_research&2023 12 04&1 2 1-10 3291 6.20%10 317.40 1.10%10 3 54 2022 2023Q3 51.65 85.70%618 618(%)PE(TTM)()600315.SH-0.81%28 156.55 603605.SH-0.44%38 410.32 300740.SZ 11.42%34 63.83 300957.SZ-9.48%27 302.70 Wind zhenweixuan_ S0130520050002 2023.12.04 Wind 2023.12.04 table_reort Wind&_&_&_&_-20.00%-15.00%-10.00%-5.00%0.00%5.00%10.00%15.00%-25%-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%300 /&2.4.4.5.6.8.8.11 2023Q3.12.16.17.17.18.20.20.22.22 0YEVxOqNmPnMpRoNmRrOmNaQbPbRtRmMmOoNlOqRpNkPpPoRaQoOwPNZtRnPMYmNnQ/&3 GB/T4754-2017 A 30 5 2 13 10 33 4911.T OR.PA LVMH MC.PA 090430.KS 0.31%0.39%1 Wind 2 Wind 3 Wind 2023/11/30 2022FY 4 Wind 2023/11/30 2022FY 050000100000150000200000250000300000 0.00%0.10%0.20%0.30%0.40%0.50%0.60%0.70%0.80%7,624.73 2,573.06 325.64 116.99-1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000 2023.11.30 2022-20 40 60 80 100 120-500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500总市值（2023.11.30 水平）2022 年营收合计/&4 2022 5318.13 2023 5791.67 2014-2022 7.50%2022 6.38%/0.66%/8.14%/4.16%GDP 2008 2009 3.14%2010 2011 2016 2010-2011 2.57%2011-2016 2.53%-2.58%2016 2020 4.32%2021 4.05%2022 4.50%0.2%12 4 618 2023 10 385440 6.90%1-10 3291 6.20%10 317.40 1.10%4 5 24.30%/11.70%6 4.80%7 8 9.70%9 10 1.60%/1.10%/&5 GMV 2151 18.58%GMV 119%111%50%GMV 75%GMV 155%100-300 1000 1000 GMV 5 2001-2022 GDP Wind 6()Wind 7 Euromonitor 8 Euromonitor-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%GDP 153.7 175.5 206.9 261.6 335.1 386.6 488.3 596.5 740.0 889.4 1102.9 1340.1 1624.9 1824.7 2049.4 2221.9 2513.7 2619.0 2992.2 3400.2 4026.0 3936.0 2.69 2.96 3.14 2.57 2.58 0.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.54.04.55.00500100015002000250030003500400045002001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%/&6 9 2022 Euromonitor 10 2022 Euromonitor 11 2012-2022 Euromonitor 12 2012-2022 Euromonitor 2022 51.95%11.95%9.07%10.44%5.81%2023 10.58%6.13%2022 2022 15.42%7.60%6.19%2023 10.30%7.54%24.39%409.91464.63531.88.14%4.14%2.03%0%1%2%3%4%5%6%7%8%9%05001000150020002500300035004000 2023E 2014-2022E 53,908.12125429.1283329.34.08%2.88%3.65%0%1%1%2%2%3%3%4%4%5%0.0050,000.00100,000.00150,000.00200,000.00250,000.00300,000.00 2022 2014-2022 0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%16%18%2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 0%5%10%15%20%25%2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 LVMH LG /&7 13 2022 Euromonitor 14 2009-2023E Euromonitor 2022 2762.67 5.90%2015-2022 8.02%2023 2982.82 7.97%80 90 80 90 2022 555.30 15.42%2015-2022 11.88%2023 612.51 10.30%15 2022 Euromonitor 16 2022 Euromonitor,51.95%,10.44%,9.07%,4.69%,11.95%,5.81%,2.49%,3.62%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023E,81.62%,7.01%,2.09%,1.97%,14.17%,45.52%,29.41%,0.66%,1.94%/&8 17 2007-2023E Euromonitor 18 2007-2023E Euromonitor 1907 1996 1837 1988 13.4%9.3%1.9%1.8%1.5%1.4%1.1%0.9%0.8%0.5%0.4%19 2022 10 Euromonitor-10.00%-5.00%0.00%5.00%10.00%15.00%20.00%0.00500.001000.001500.002000.002500.003000.003500.002007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023E-20.00%-10.00%0.00%10.00%20.00%30.00%40.00%0.00100.00200.00300.00400.00500.00600.00700.002007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023E 13.49.35.33.22.92.32 1.9 1.81.5 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.31.1 1 1 1 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.40246810121416/&9 16.8%7.6%2.21 3.5%4.80 27.4%LVMH 10.2%2.69 4.2%6.52 5.7%5.6%5.8%5.7%6 2-2 9 5 5.8%5.7%3.6%3.3%1.7%5 20.1%1 20 2022%Euromonitor 21 2022%Euromonitor 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 LG LVMH 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 LG LVMH/&10 22 2022%Euromonitor 23 2022%Euromonitor 2013-2022-3.94.3pct+1.0pct+0.3%+0.7%-3.4pct+3.3pct/+2.6pct+1.7pct/+0.4pct/+1.2pct/+2.3pct+1.2pct,+2.3pct+0.35.7pct 4.3pct 20 1.1pct 0 1 2 3 4 5 6CPB SK-II Olay 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 CPB /&11 24 2013-2022 20 Euromonitor 25 2013-2022 20+Euromonitor 26 2013-2022 20 Euromonitor 1.2022 55.9 0.02.04.06.08.010.012.014.016.02013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 LVMH LG 0.01.02.03.04.05.06.07.02013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Olay SK-II CPB0.02.04.06.08.010.012.02013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 CPB /&12 27 2022 Euromonitor 28 2016-2023 Wind 2.3.30 2023Q3 1.2023 2023Q3 639.21 4.61%51.65 85.70%/0501001502002503003504004500.0050.00100.00150.00200.00250.00300.00350.00400.00450.00500.002016-012016-032016-052016-072016-092016-112017-012017-032017-052017-072017-092017-112018-012018-032018-052018-072018-092018-112019-012019-032019-052019-072019-092019-112020-012020-032020-052020-072020-092020-112021-012021-032021-052021-072021-092021-112022-012022-032022-052022-072022-092022-112023-012023-032023-052023-072023-09/&13 29 Wind 30 Wind Q3 2023 2023 639.21 4.60%85.70%20%1 34.31 18.51%5.08 12.53%2 52.49 32.47%7.46 50.60%7.26 52.18%30%媞 OR 50%媞 OR 9 3 15.36 34.34%PL 7.71%35%31.6%28.78%30%70.84%2.87 4 50.91 4.91%2.98 19.07%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%0100200300400500600700800900-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%01020304050607080 /&14 5 33.77 1.04%1.95 77.91%2+2+n 2024 2023 7-9 218.7 1600.69 6%45.21 330.9 6%3 1 6 5 3 2023 1-9 305.77 2367 12.6%100.03 774 11.1%/2023 34.2/114.6/107.8/49.1 5.1%/10.8%/2.9%/7.3%9633 5.7%288 12.7%7551 COSRX 28.8 COSRX 93.2%2024 2023 9 30 35.18 10%3100 92.65%3%347.33 5.3%9.87 29.4%7.3%2.2023 2022 1017.87 2023Q3 1074.58 2022 31.22%2023Q3 27.95%2007-2013 29.23%43.94%2013-2020 2020 30%2013 7-8 2013-2016 6-7 2017-2022 7-8 /&15 31%Wind 32%Wind 3.1.10 2014 2018 2022 1.11 1 2023 Q3 1.05 33%Wind 4.2023 ROE ROE 2007-2019 3.26%11.93%2020 ROE 5.37%6.29%100%1.50 0.85 0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%50%020040060080010001200 01234567890%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%16%2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023Q3 0.000.200.400.600.801.001.201.401.601.802.002007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023Q3/&16 7%ROE 2023 Q3 51.65 85.70%ROE 34 ROE Wind 35 ROE Wind 2022-2023 2022 2022 2023 1-10 2023 2023 1 1.1 2 2.-1%1%3%5%7%9%11%13%15%2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023Q3ROE0%2%4%6%8%10%12%0.00.20.40.60.81.01.21.41.61.82.0 /&17 3.3 4 30 4.2023 2023.11.30 9.18%-12.51%-2.79%2 2023 1 2 3 4 618 618 7 8 9 10 11 9 PS 2023 7 2023 11 30 PE 0.71%PS 15.9%PE TTMPS /&18 36 2023%Wind 37 Wind 2017 3 30 2023 11 30 0.56%0.32%38 Wind 39 Wind A 2020 0.12%2023Q3 30 639.21 4.61%0.12%0.13%2022 0.09%2023.11.30 0.50%1.96 1/PE 1/PE 10-0.16%-1.40%-0.94%2023 2007 2015-20.00%-15.00%-10.00%-5.00%0.00%5.00%10.00%15.00%3.003.504.004.505.005.506.006.507.007.500.0020.0040.0060.0080.00100.00120.00140.00160.00180.00PE PE PS PS 0.00%0.10%0.20%0.30%0.40%0.50%0.60%0.70%05101520253035化妆品行业上市公司数量 占比全行业数量00.20.40.60.811.20.00%0.10%0.20%0.30%0.40%0.50%0.60%+1 SD-1 SD/&19 Beta A beta 1 beta beta 1 0.94 2016 2023.11.30 beta 0.76 40 41 42%Wind 43%Wind 44%Wind 45 beta%Wind 0.00%0.02%0.04%0.06%0.08%0.10%0.12%0.14%0.00100.00200.00300.00400.00500.00600.00700.00800.00900.00 0.00%0.05%0.10%0.15%0.20%0.25%0.0010.0020.0030.0040.0050.0060.0070.0080.00 00.20.40.60.811.2-0.20%0.00%0.20%0.40%0.60%0.80%1.00%1.20%+1 SD-1 SD00.20.40.60.811.20.001.002.003.004.005.006.007.008.009.00+1 SD-1 SD-8.00%-7.00%-6.00%-5.00%-4.00%-3.00%-2.00%-1.00%0.00%1.00%2.00%+1 SD-1 SD Wind Wind /&20 A 600315.SH 603605.SH 300740.SZ 603983.SH 301371.SZ 688363.SH 300957.SZ 603193.SH 603630.SH 002919.SZ 603059.SH 600249.SH 001328.SZ 002094.SZ 300856.SZ 300132.SZ 002637.SZ 001218.SZ 600223.SH 300955.SZ 300792.SZ 605136.SH 003010.SZ 301001.SZ 301110.SZ 002315.SZ 300592.SZ 002127.SZ 02367.HK 2145.HK 0157.HK 6601.HK 6993.HK 2035(2020-2025)2025 2000 100 3 5 25%2025 10 16 11 10 2023 143 2023Q3 51.65 85.70%54 2022 /&21 618 618 GMV 119%111%1 n TOP1 3.0 55 TOP7 2023 10 31 20:00-24:00 7 11 TOP10 4 TOP1 2023 10 31 20:00-24:00 Top22023 10 31 100%2023 10 1-10 31 11 1745%26 TOP13 3 3 1+15 1 1 71,108.78 2 2.12 52.0006%2016+3 11 8/600315.SH 603605.SH 300740.SZ 300957.SZ /&22 2 2023%600315.SH 25%-26.28%-0.81%603605.SH 25%-12.72%-0.44%300740.SZ+25%-50.77%-9.48%300957.SZ 25%11.31%11.42%Wind 46 2023 Wind-25%-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%300 /&23 1.3 2.3 3.3 4.3 5 2001-2022 GDP.5 6().5 7.5 8.5 9 2022.6 10 2022.6 11 2012-2022.6 12 2012-2022.6 13 2022.7 14 2009-2023E.7 15 2022.7 16 2022.7 17 2007-2023E.8 18 2007-2023E.8 19 2022 10.8 20 2022%.9 21 2022%.9 22 2022%.10 23 2022%.10 24 2013-2022 20.11 25 2013-2022 20+.11 26 2013-2022 20.11 27 2022.12 28 2016-2023.12 29.13 30.13 31%.15 32%.15 33%.15 34 ROE.16 35 ROE.16 36 2023%.18 37.18 38.18 39.18 40.19 /&24 41.19 42%.19 43%.19 44%.19 45 beta%.19 46 2023.22 1.16 2.22 /&25 2018 5 6-12 300 20%6-12 300 20%嫚
