20231127_华创证券_白酒行业高端白酒提价系列报告之上篇：高端白酒提价成败分析_20页.pdf
2009 1210 2023 11 27 2000 13 15-17 22 9 03-04 10 18/23 18 08-13 23 1-2 15%-25%12 30%14 15-17 06/07/08 04-05 13 17-21 17-19 25 S0360521050001 S0360520070001 S0360522090005 S0360523080010 021-20572598 S0360518040001%()20 0.00()40,889.43 4.60()40,861.53 5.93%1M 6M 12M 6.7%-0.4%12.7%5.2%8.0%18.6%2023-11-01 2023-10-09 2023-09-27-7%6%19%32%22/11 23/02 23/04 23/07 23/09 23/112022-11-282023-11-24 300 2009 1210.4.4.7.7.8.8.9.10.11.12.13.14 YWBYwPqNtQqRpRoNrMsNmNaQdN7NsQmMmOmPfQrQpOfQmOzRbRqRmRuOpPoPxNnQsR 2009 1210 3 1.4 2.5 3.6 4.7 5 06-12/.9 6.9 7 06-12.9 8.10 9.10 10 19.11 11.12 12.14 13.15 14 21.15 15.16 16.16 17.16 18 SW PE band.17 19 SW PB band.17 2009 1210 4 20 2003 9 03 9 15%-35%03-07 03 04-05 06 15%07 30 08-12 08 1 439 1 12 9 200 12 12 15 6 18 23 20%1 2009 1210 5 18 03 18 1 03-07 03 1573 33%330 05-07 5 5%07 08-12 08 08 9 12%469 10 11 9%/29%13-14 12 13 11%729 14 5 10 16%/5%576 15-21 15-16 3 10%609 739 570 660 17 17 6 19 20%22 21 22 969 2 2006-2013 2014-2022 2009 1210 6 23 03 23 15 10%17 06-09 2001 06-09 4 5%-15%07 4 08 8 80-90 10-14 10-13 10 1 11%519 13 7 999 09 113%55%87%14 4 3 550 15-21 15 15-21 10 19/20 3 5%20-60/0.95 21 22 22 1 23 980 3 2009 1210 7 2000 20 1 2 2000 10 15%-30%03-04 10 20+03 08-12 3 1 2 3 4=-/&15-17 15-17 2009 1210 8 15-17 1-2 13&15-17 90 06 06 12 1 06 06 2 15%30%2 07 07 1 328 458 3 08 08 1 439 KOL 03 30%2009 1210 9 5 06-12/6 7 06-12 Wind 13-14 819 729 576 999 550 30-50 13-14 5/10pcts+2009 1210 10 13 576 7 550 200+8 9 3 17 4 19 20%889 3 19 CPI 15 19 17 2009 1210 11 2020/40%/30%/40%3/17 3 19 20%889 10 19 Wind/2009 1210 12 11/1 2 3 25 PE 2009 1210 13 2009 1210 14 12 1953 1.28-1971 2.5 4.07 1989 80 106 2007 358 500 1954 1.28 2.84 1972 2.5 4.07 1990 80 106 2008 439 650 1955 1.28 2.84 1973 2.5 4.07 1991 80 106 2009 439 650 1956 1.28 2.84 1974 6.2 8 1992 80 128 2010 499 1000 1957 1.79 2.97 1975-1993 80 128 2011 619 2000 1958 1.79 2.97 1976-1994 140 150 2012 819 1400 1959 1.79 2.97 1977-1995 140 150 2013 819 1000 1960 1.79 2.97 1978-1996 140 168 2014 819 900 1961 2.5 4.07 1979-1997 140 200 2015 819 900 1962 2.5 4.07 1980-1998 140 200 2016 819 1200 1963 2.5 4.07 1981 8.4-1999 140 200 2017 819 1400 1964 2.5 4.07 1982 8.4-2000 185 200 2018 969 1800 1965 2.5 4.07 1983 8.4-2001 218 220 2019 969 2300 1966 2.5 4.07 1984 8.4-2002 218 280 2020 969 2850 1967 2.5 4.07 1985 8.4-2003 268 320 2021 969 2960 1968 2.5 4.07 1986 9.5 18 2004 268 350 2022 969 2970 1969 2.5 4.07 1987 9.5 18 2005 268 350 2023 1169 2980 1970 2.5 4.07 1988 14 30 2006 308 400 2009 1210 15 13 1=-2=/14 21 2021 1-3 1 10/2021/2 6+30/2021/3 30/2021/3 10/2021/3 20 38 42 20 40/52 20 60/2021/4 10 2021/9 20/2021/10 20/2021/11 20/2021/12 1988 50/2021/12 100/2022/1 1089 889 2022/1 890/960/2022/6 10/2022/9 20/2023/1 20/2023/3 30/2023/3 20/2023/4 20/2009 1210 16 2023/4 909/1009/2023/6 20 20/2023/6 30/2023/6/1/2023/8 960 980 2023/11 20%2023/11 60 52/43/38 478/438/428 元 XN 15 16 17)EPS/P/E 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E 22323 1777.0 49.93 59.83 70.82 82.63 36 30 25 22 5948 153.2 6.88 7.60 8.70 9.90 22 20 18 15 3096 210.4 7.04 8.90 11.01 13.26 30 24 19 16 2934 240.5 6.64 8.95 11.39 14.41 36 27 21 17 1782 118.3 6.23 7.26 8.59 10.09 19 16 14 12 1382 260.5 5.95 8.20 10.70 13.92 44 32 24 19 681 54.3 2.00 2.48 3.11 3.90 27 22 17 14 356 106.9 5.06 5.82 7.06 8.63 21 18 15 12 288 59.0 2.49 2.67 3.39 4.24 24 22 17 14 342 10.5 0.37 0.49 0.62 0.77 29 21 17 14 291 48.5 2.58 3.00 3.45 4.00 19 16 14 12 145 22.0-0.31 0.04 0.38 0.93-71 529 58 24 Wind 2023 11 24 0500100015002000250030003500400045002016/10 2018/10 2020/10 2022/10-100400900 1988 15 2018 20 M6+/52 20 2009 1210 17 18 SW PE band 19 SW PB band Wind Wind 020,00040,00060,00080,000100,000120,000 51.1X 43.3X35.5X 27.8X 20.0X020,00040,00060,00080,000100,000120,000 13.4X 11.3X9.1X 7.0X 4.9X 2009 1210 18 6 2020 2021-2022 4 2019 2020 2021 4 2020 2020 2022 2022 3 2020 2023 14 2013 2022 2009 1210 19 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-66500808 010-66500821 010-63214682 0755-82828570 0755-83715428 0755-82756804 0755-82871425 0755-82871425 021-20572536 021-20572555 021-20572257-2552 021-20572506 021-20572585 021-20572509 021-20572548 021-20572573 0755-82756805 021-20572559 021-20572559 0755-82756805 021-20572559 玙 021-25072549 2009 1210 20 A 300 500/6 20%6 10%20%6-10%10%6 10%20%3-6 5%3-6-5%5%3-6 5%600519 3.97%26 C 3A 1061 A 19 33 12 100033 518034 200120 010-66500801 0755-82027731 021-20572500 010-66500900 0755-82828562 021-20572522
