|2023 128.9GW 145%61.79GW 67.14.GW 60GW 189GW CPIA 2023 350GW 380GW 2023 3 1 0 1 2 2020 2021 2022 2023 1-9 33.84GW 74.47%(601865)(002623)(600586)(600438)BC HJT(600732)(601012)(688516)(300776)(300751)(300128)0 1(300274)(688390)(300763)(002518)(603105)(601778)(003035)(300982)(002857)(300438)(688063)(688032)(605117)(688348)(688390)(300763)+(002487)(301155)(002531)(300129)(300569)(603606)(605222)(603507)(603985)(603218)(300443)(300850)/2023 11 24 021-63325888*6118 S0860515100003 021-63325888*6119 S0860520080004 S0860523050001 TCL 7.24%2023/08/14 2023-08-22 7 178%127%2023/08/21 2023-08-22 2023-08-14 2024 2 23.5.5.5.10.16 24.18.18 0 1.24.26.28.29.31 WUBYyRtOoNnMrPoNnQpQoP8OcM9PmOoOsQoNeRqRoPfQnPrNbRnMtPNZoMoNwMmOxP 3 1 2023 11 17.5 2 2014-2023 GW.5 3 2014-2023 GW.6 4 2023 GW%.6 5 2023 GW%.6 6 GW.7 7 N.7 8 TOPCON GW 2023 7 15.7 9 2023 GW.8 10/.8 11/.8 12/W.8 13/W.8 14 3.2mm/m2.9 15.10 16.10 17.10 18.10 19 GW%.10 20 2023 GW%.11 21 GW%.11 22 GW.13 23/kW.14 24 DCE/.15 25 SHFE/.15 26 2000-2022%.16 27 GW.16 28 2000-2022%.16 29 GW.16 30 Wind 866088.WI 2023/11/17.17 31 2023.17 32 2023 MWh.17 33 2023.18 34.19 4 35 2023 11 IPO.20 36 2023Q3.20 37 BSF PERC TOPCon HJT IBC.21 38.22 39 11 2.23 40 IRR.24 41/.24 42/wh.24 43.26 44 GW.27 45.27 46.27 47 MWh.28 48.29 49.29 50.29 51.29 1.12 2%.14 3 GW.18 4 N.21 5.25 6.25 7.26 8.27 5 23 2023 2023 11 17 22.32%42.29%35.27%24.71%19-22 23 1 2023 11 17 Wind 2023 128.9GW 145%61.79GW 48%67.14.GW 52%2023 520GW 295GW 56.7%225 43.3%60GW 189GW 2022 230GW 177%2023 1-9 156.7GW CPIA 2023 350GW 380GW 2 2014-2023 GW 6 CPIA 3 2014-2023 GW CPIA 4 2023 GW%5 2023 GW%7 2023 IPO+2023 867GW/959GW/809GW 2023 1113GW/1125GW/1124.7GW N TOPCON 1000GW BC HJT 2023 N P 55%10 2024 6 GW 7 N Solarzoom Solarzoom 8 TOPCON GW 2023 7 15 Solarzoom 8 9 2023 GW Solarzoom PERC 182mm 1.7-1.8/W 11 1.1/W PERC 182mm 1/W 11 0.45/W 182-150 m 4-5/11 2.4/W 15-20/11 7/23 10/11/PV Infolink 12/W 13/W 9 PV Infolink PV Infolink 14 3.2mm/m2 PV Infolink 2023 23 68 3484 8%2.6%315 32%19%2 TOPCON 10 15 16 Wind Wind 17 18 Wind Wind 2020 2021 2022 2023 1-9 33.84GW 74.47%19 GW%11 20 2023 GW%2020 2021 12 31 2022 4.17GW 23 2023 1.43GW 15%21 GW%12 1(MW)1 2021 265 100 1000 85 850 80 800 2 300MW 300 800MW 200 150 250 200 3 250MW V 250 4 1GW 70()700 30()300 A A 450 B B 45 450 30 300 13 5 2.7GW 180 1800 90 900 6 500(CZ8)500(CZ2)1200 CZ7 1500 CZ9 1500 120 1200(CZ-1)600()1000 7 196 16596 2023 5 10 2023 9 61.7GW 19.1%55.6GW 6.1GW 2023 14.4GW 42.86%2023 9 1553/22 GW 14 23/kW 2%Wind 2022Q2 2022Q3 2022Q4 2023Q1 2023Q2 2023Q3002202.SZ 24.3 18.4 11.2 25.2 14.0 18.2300772.SZ 19.7 16.8 17.1 16.7 17.1 13.7601615.SH 24.8 18.5 12.3 13.4 20.1 13.2688349.SH 28.1 24.5 20.8 29.0 20.7 14.9688660.SH 电气风电 26.5 19.6 8.9 14.0 9.8 6.6603218.SH 10.2 11.9 18.1 20.4 22.5 15.1300443.SZ 27.4 29.9 33.0 34.5 36.7 35.5300850.SZ 28.1 25.0 23.1 27.0 25.2 27.6603985.SH 11.9 7.4 13.2 14.2 14.2 10.2002080.SZ 27.3 24.9 22.0 28.1 23.9 22.4301456.SZ 51.8 48.5 50.4 48.9 47.1 39.4603507.SH 11.5 16.2 12.3 19.0 22.6 22.4300690.SZ 18.5 18.3 25.3 24.1 32.3 26.5603063.SH 24.9 29.8 31.7 32.7 33.7 35.9002487.SZ 12.0 23.2 16.8 19.0 27.5 24.6300129.SZ 17.1 20.7 19.2 22.1 16.1 20.2002531.SZ 24.2 18.4 15.9 26.2 21.4 20.3300569.SZ 28.1 15.0 16.0 30.2 27.6 17.7301155.SZ 13.5 16.9 16.3 15.5 15.2 6.6603606.SH 20.6 23.5 17.2 31.0 27.1 20.9605222.SH 9.4 6.2 5.8 8.8 4.7 6.1600973.SH 3.9 5.4 5.9 5.3 5.5 5.2600522.SH 15.9 18.2 16.8 18.4 16.4 16.9风电整机中游零部件塔筒管桩海缆 15 24 DCE/Wind,25 SHFE/Wind,16 CNESA 2022 237.2GW+15%79.3%45.8GW+80%94.4%26 2000-2022%27 GW CNESA CNESA CNESA 2022 59.8GW+38%77.1%13.1GW+142%94.0%28 2000-2022%29 GW CNESA CNESA 2021 2021 7 23 2025 30GW 2030 2021 0501001502002502016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 20220102030405060702016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 17 2022 1 2 3 Repower EU 2 2022 2023 1 3 30 Wind 866088.WI 2023/11/17 Wind 2020 11 19 2023 1-10 28.29GW/70.77GWh 31 2023 32 2023 MWh 18 2h 4h 2h 1.47/Wh 0.94/Wh 9 10.6%2023 1 10 36.05%33 2023 MWh 24 2024 20%462GW 2024/2025 462GW 569GW 3 GW 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E 2023 2024 2025 87 189 217 261 117%15%20%21 36 54 73 71%50%35%46 64 74 81 39%15%10%10 18 32 51 77%80%60%15 16 20 25 7%25%25%19 10.6 12 15 18 13%25%20%40.4 45.0 50 60 11%11%20%230 380 462 569 65%22%23%Trendforce 5%2022 62%1500 5500 3 15%34 2021/2022/2023 2024 2023 3 2021-2023 11 A 30 ipo 845 21 900 2020 1579 961.6 IPO+3380 2023 11 10 933.5 285.4 1200 24 2022 8 27 IPO 11 13 2024 20 35 2023 11 IPO Wind 36 2023Q3 Wind BC HJT IBC HJT TOPCON 182 72 IBC 620W TOPCON 595W PERC 565W HJT 210 210 66 HJT 710W TOPCON 705W TOPCON TOPCON 2023 TOPCON BC HJT TOPCON 2023 N 30%2024 HJT BC BC HPBC 1.5GW 23 30GW HPBC 52GWABC 24 ABC 20-30GW TOPCON BC HJT HJT HJT 24 BC HJT P 21 37 BSF PERC TOPCon HJT IBC N TOPCon IBC 4 N%/cm2 W TOPCON TOPCon M10/182 72 1.00%0.40%-0.29 25,833 22.84%590 PERC PERC M10/182 72 0.55%-0.35 25,833 21.68%560 TOPCON TOPCon M10/182 72 1.00%0.40%-0.28 25,833 22.80%590 HPBC HPBC M10/182 72 1.50%0.40%-0.29 25,867 23.20%600 PERC PERC M10/182 72 2.00%0.55%-0.34 25,833 21.70%560 TOPCON TOPCon G12 66 1.00%0.40%-0.30 31,064 22.90%710 TOPCON TOPCon M10/182 72 1.00%0.40%-0.30 25,833 22.80%590 PERC PERC M10/182 72 2.00%0.55%-0.34 25,833 21.90%565 TOPCON TOPCon M10/182 72 1.00%0.40%-0.30 26,456 22.70%600 PERC PERC M10/182 72 2.00%0.45%-0.35 25,833 21.90%565 HJT HJT G12/210 66 0.30%-0.24 31,064 22.70%705 TOPCON TOPCon G12/210 66 1.00%0.40%-0.29 31,064 22.50%700 HJT HJT G12 66-0.26 31,064 23.18%720-ABC ABC 72 1.00%0.35%-0.29 25,833 24.00%620-HJT HJT G12 66-0.26 31,064 22.53%700 HJT HJT G12/210 66 1.00%0.25%-0.24 31,064 22.54%700 24 Q3 174 31%24%16.78 33%34%22 38 23 75%7.4/6-7/BC HJT 60.0%65.0%70.0%75.0%80.0%85.0%90.0%95.0%100.0%012345678910在产日熔量（万吨）开工率 产能利用率 23 39 11 2 Wind 23Q1 23Q2 23Q3 同比 环比 2 3 年E 2 4 年E 2 5 年E 23年 24年 25年通威股份 1,185 257.3 86.01 46.69 30.31-68%-35%182.93 147.94 183.07 6.5 8.0 6.5-26.37%大全股份 751 191.2 29.11 15.15 6.89-88%-55%58.43 36.80 50.00 12.9 20.4 15.0-21.48%合盛硅业 675 51.5 10.03 7.80 4.02-60%-48%33.04 47.61 59.98 20.4 14.2 11.3-30.49%T C L 中环 726 68.2 22.53 22.83 16.52-21%-28%89.83 109.81 128.52 8.1 6.6 5.6-40.85%双良节能 175 9.6 5.02 1.16 7.85 65%575%20.51 29.97 36.44 8.6 5.9 4.8-24.29%弘元绿能 214 30.3 6.77 3.40 3.01-76%-12%31.68 44.73 54.50 6.8 4.8 3.9-48.73%爱旭股份 324 23.3 7.02 6.07 5.79-27%-5%31.99 44.52 60.79 10.1 7.3 5.3-33.00%钧达股份 194 7.2 3.54 6.02 6.83 396%13%25.57 34.30 39.36 7.6 5.6 4.9-36.02%仕净科技 51 1.0 0.36 0.68 0.63 260%-7%2.68 9.73 13.38 19.1 5.3 3.8-14.98%隆基绿能 1,733 148.1 36.37 55.41 25.15-44%-55%174.17 206.55 237.53 10.0 8.4 7.3-44.84%天合光能 632 36.8 17.68 17.72 15.37 36%-13%72.39 91.76 114.43 8.7 6.9 5.5-55.74%晶澳科技 736 55.3 25.82 22.31 19.51 23%-13%94.53 118.45 144.20 7.8 6.2 5.1-49.37%晶科能源 902 29.4 16.58 21.85 25.11 226%15%76.02 93.59 114.76 11.9 9.6 7.9-39.00%阿特斯 489 21.6 9.18 10.05 9.17 15%-9%43.56 57.79 74.02 11.2 8.5 6.6 1.61%东方日升 200 9.4 3.11 5.50 4.18 72%-24%18.36 24.76 31.13 10.9 8.1 6.4-30.46%协鑫集成 160 0.6 0.27 0.84 0.31-122%-63%2.99 5.90 9.18 53.6 27.2 17.5-8.67%爱康科技 100-8.3 0.33 0.14-0.26-77%-291%0.00 0.00 0.00-23.37%亿晶光电 62 1.3 1.27 1.58 0.17-31%-89%7.02 10.72 13.56 8.8 5.8 4.6-8.29%横店东磁 237 16.7 5.83 6.29 4.38 7%-30%21.70 25.78 30.76 10.9 9.2 7.7-22.35%中来股份 121 4.0 1.03 1.34 2.47 120%85%8.58 12.70 18.19 14.1 9.5 6.6-26.42%能辉科技 40 0.3 0.04 0.02 0.27-2018%1561%1.35 1.91 2.59 29.6 21.1 15.5-27.52%太阳能 225 13.9 3.89 5.10 5.51 43%8%22.17 28.40 33.84 10.1 7.9 6.6-21.75%晶科科技 130 2.1 0.24 1.13 2.52 27%122%4.76 7.22 9.41 27.4 18.1 13.8-37.27%正泰电器 499 40.2 12.02 7.02 10.88-28%55%48.28 56.90 65.91 10.3 8.8 7.6-14.47%南网能源 208 5.5 0.82 1.12 1.53-11%36%5.79 8.34 10.91 35.9 24.9 19.1-4.38%林洋能源 136 8.6 1.97 3.84 2.70-17%-30%11.61 15.70 19.48 11.7 8.6 7.0-23.97%芯能科技 62 1.9 0.30 0.79 0.77-5%-3%2.42 3.26 4.13 25.4 18.9 14.9-19.13%2 3 年至今涨幅w i n d 估值板块 上市公司最新市值22年运营商EPC w i n d 一致预期硅料硅片电池片组件及一体化最新季度同环比 2 3 年季度业绩23Q1 23Q2 23Q3 同比 环比 2 3 年E 2 4 年E 2 5 年E 23年 24年 25年福莱特 566 21.2 5.11 5.73 8.84 76%54%29.19 39.49 48.65 19.4 14.3 11.6-20.75%凯盛新能 63 4.1 0.12 1.16 0.69 428%-41%4.30 7.31 10.35 14.8 8.7 6.1-31.75%亚玛顿 54 0.8 0.16 0.23 0.44 171%87%1.20 1.93 2.84 45.2 28.2 19.2-10.79%安彩高科 52 0.8 0.10 0.23 0.03-93%-86%1.91 2.66 3.43 27.2 19.5 15.1-25.59%耀皮玻璃 40 0.2-0.66-0.33 0.08 140%-125%0.00 0.00 0.00 4.71%金晶科技 98 3.6 0.88 1.73 1.62 224%-7%5.87 7.65 9.95 16.7 12.8 9.9-24.55%清源股份 33 1.1 0.51 0.57 0.37-6%-35%2.05 2.78 3.63 15.9 11.7 9.0-25.23%中信博 104 0.4 0.39 0.59 0.59-622%0%2.85 4.97 6.69 36.5 21.0 15.6-23.59%意华股份 62 2.4 0.16 0.51 0.34-32%-33%2.85 4.04 5.20 21.6 15.2 11.8-40.14%帝科股份 67-0.2 0.86 1.16 0.90-761%-23%4.17 6.29 8.19 16.0 10.6 8.1 27.20%苏州固锝 97 3.7 0.23 0.33 0.27-52%-16%2.11 3.13 4.57 46.0 31.1 21.3-12.80%赛伍技术 70 1.7 0.33 0.17 0.35-35%103%1.51 3.05 4.27 46.4 23.0 16.4-49.61%中来股份 121 4.0 1.03 1.34 2.47 120%85%8.58 12.70 18.19 14.1 9.5 6.6-26.42%明冠新材 37 1.0 0.19 0.33-0.07-119%-122%0.00 0.00 0.00-62.43%回天新材 57 2.9 1.20 1.03 0.72-7%-30%3.71 4.76 5.78 15.3 11.9 9.8-22.62%焊带 宇邦新材 47 1.0 0.36 0.37 0.45 67%22%2.16 3.21 4.29 21.7 14.6 10.9-39.95%阳光电源 1,242 35.9 15.08 28.46 28.69 147%1%89.83 113.02 140.06 13.8 11.0 8.9-27.53%上能电气 101 0.8 0.37 0.99 0.73 227%-26%4.21 6.72 9.73 24.1 15.1 10.4-37.07%固德威 197 6.5 3.36 4.04 1.52-31%-62%14.73 21.52 29.16 13.4 9.1 6.8-51.53%锦浪科技 260 10.6 3.24 3.03 1.24-59%-59%14.74 22.16 30.34 17.7 11.7 8.6-64.12%德业股份 304 15.2 5.89 6.75 3.05-36%-55%23.40 34.23 45.63 13.0 8.9 6.7-60.68%禾迈股份 184 5.3 1.76 1.72 0.67-58%-61%8.16 13.41 19.56 22.5 13.7 9.4-64.69%昱能科技 134 3.6 1.18 0.17 0.46-63%179%4.52 7.67 11.51 29.7 17.5 11.7-69.50%坩埚 欧晶科技 80 2.4 1.72 2.36 1.81 189%-23%10.85 14.20 16.97 7.4 5.6 4.7-41.58%单晶炉 晶盛机电 561 29.2 8.87 13.19 13.08 63%-1%47.57 59.67 70.84 11.8 9.4 7.9-32.61%福斯特 468 15.8 3.64 5.20 5.46 15%5%23.72 32.66 40.72 19.7 14.3 11.5-48.22%海优新材 58 0.5 0.23-0.57-0.41-45%-28%1.10 3.93 5.12 52.8 14.8 11.3-63.86%板块 上市公司最新市值22年2 3 年季度业绩 最新季度同环比 w i n d 一致预期 w i n d 估值 2 3 年至今涨幅胶膜玻璃支架背板逆变器 24 0 1 9 18 40 IRR EESA(DoD)90%94%5%;5%3.5%EESA 2023 2022 11 57.0/2023 11 16.3/70%1.0/wh 0.49/wh 50%2022 1.6-1.8/wh 2023 11 1.1-1.3/W 41/42/wh Wind 25+2021 7 1 2021 7 26 20%2 2021 10 31 2021 12 1 1.5 5 40%4:1 3:1 20%2023 5 2023 6 1-0.00810.07731/kWh+5 22 6=(+)=(+)+()()100 100 315 315 26 43 EESA 23 IRR 24=2022+1 2 7-Easter Package 100%2050 2035 2030 80%215GW 600TWh 450-600/kW 2030 33%2021 305 27 57/23H1 23Q4-24H1 7-8 12 24H1 44 GW Rystad Energy 45 46 energypriceindex energypriceindex 8 2022 2022 4 1 VAT 5%0 5 2020 Ecobonus 50-65%110%28 2020 4600 4750 3.76 2019 CEP Clean Energy Package 2019/943 2019/944 2019 10kW 30kW 2019 AGROENERGIA 10-50kw/+2 2016 60%5400$47 MWh ISEA 2 3 H1-5.8GW-A 13.4GW-”2024 2024 10GW 50%2025 2024-100%-50%0%50%100%150%200%250%0501001502002503003504002020 1 2020 2 2020 3 2020 4 2020 5 2020 6 2020 7 2020 8 2020 9 2020 10 2020 11 2020 12 2021 1 2021 2 2021 3 2021 4 2021 5 2021 6 2021 7 2021 8 2021 9 2021 10 2021 11 2021 12 2022 1 2022 2 2022 3 2022 4 2022 5 2022 6 2022 7 2022 8 2022 9 2022 10 2022 11 2022 12 2023 1 2023 2 2023 3 2023 4 2023 5 MWh 29 2021 48%44%SIF EEW Bladt Steelwind 600 50%11m 48 49 2021 50 51 National Renewable Energy Laboratory(NREL)Offshore Wind Market Report:2021 Edition(601865)(002623)(600586)(600438)BC HJT(600732)(601012)(688516)(300776 30)(300751)(300128)0 1(300274)(688390)(300763)(002518)(603105)(601778)(003035)(300982)(002857)(300438)(688063)(688032)(605117)(688348)(688390)(300763)+(002487)(301155)(002531)(300129)(300569)(603606)(605222)(603507)(603985)(603218)(300443)(300850)31 32 1%(603218)1%(300982)1%33 Tabl e_Disclai mer 12 A 300 500 15%5%15%-5%+5%-5%5%-5%+5%-5%HeadertTabl e_Discl ai mer HeadertTabl e_Address 318 26 021-63325888 021-63326786 Tabl e_Disclai mer