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20231127_海通证券_建材行业2024年度投资策略报告会：峰回路转柳暗花明_43页.pdf

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20231127_海通证券_建材行业2024年度投资策略报告会：峰回路转柳暗花明_43页.pdf

SAC S0850516060004 SAC S0850519060001 2023 11 27 2 1.2.3.4.ROE 5.0YBYvMmRmPmNtNsRsPsNoPaQaO7NnPpPoMsRjMmNmNfQoMuM6MmNrMuOrRnNvPoNpN1.3 05000010000015000020000025000030000035000040000045000050000002/01 04/04 06/07 08/10 11/01 13/04 15/07 17/10 20/01 22/04:():1 050001000015000200002500030000350004000015/05 16/05 17/05 18/05 19/05 20/05 21/05 22/05 23/05:(PSL):2 2015 20022015 15%20152023 4%2023 10 2015 20152019 PSL 3.5 Wind 1.1 2015 4 2023 10 24 2023 1 2023 38800 48800 31600 41600 3%3.8%GDP GDP%:%2008 53272 319245 2009 60238 348518 6966 2.2%2010 67548 412119 7310 2.1%3.0 2011 72045 487940 4496 1.1%2.0 2012 77566 538580 5521 1.1%1.6 2013 86747 592963 9181 1.7%2.0 2014 95655 643563 8909 1.5%2.1 2015 106600 688858 10944 1.7%2.3 2016 120067 746395 13467 2.0%3.0 2017 134770 832036 14703 2.0%3.0 2018 149607 919281 14837 1.8%2.6 2019 168038 986515 18431 2.0%2.8 2020 208906 1013567 40868 4.1%3.6 2021 232697 1149237 23791 2.3%3.2 2022 255889 1210207 23192 2.0%2.8 2023 3.8 1 GDP Wind 2023 3%1.1 23Q4 1 5 2015 12 3/23Q3 2015 23Q4 3/2015 Wind 20152023H1 23H1 1.1 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 23H1 24 31 50 99 100 105 103 50 41 3 9 27 71 79 67 59 31 26-42-5 2 33 42 38 33 12-8 8 11 33 74 79 67 70 17 13 22 27 42 87 74 79 76 14 43-31-3 11 59 80 11 33 11-1 5 8 48 95 119 93 86 41 30 11 14 26 56 58 60 61 12 25-76-39-34 42 43 28 33-49 47 65 92 113 101 87 7-90-71-128-101-30-4-44 46 38 60-18 1 39 65 91 68 78 52 57 3 7 27 62 76 65 51 24 25-21 24 23 37 24 40 52 26 16 2/1502002503003504004505002013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 20226 2021 4 1.2 7 5 2022 6 23H1 2022 2023 2022 2023 Holcim Heidelberg Holcim 2022 2021 1.2 00.511.522.533.5 Holcim Heidelberg 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%8 1.2 7 8 Wind 2023E 384%181%417%165%112%116%156%356%200%81%120%0%50%100%150%200%250%300%350%400%450%23Q3/2018 010203040506070 9 2023 5-3 1.3 Wind 2022 2023 2020 20212022 2022 2022 2022 2022 2022 0 37 37 0%99%11-85 13%16%2023H1 350 200 150 130 25%2023H1 638/1519/875/321/42 87 305 14%29%2023H1 1677/14%2023H1 1.22 0 17 71 0%23%2*5000t/d 310 2022 1526 1 4500t/d 0 269 1326 0%20%40 166 1320 3%13%0 41 345 0%12%0 0 60 0%0%0 0 113 0%0%0 0 26 0%0%10 1.3 10 2023H1 9 2022 2 11 1.4+12 2.13 Wind 4 11 2.1:%:%:%2022-02(9.6)(12.2)(9.8)2022-03(17.7)(22.2)(15.5)2022-04(39.0)(44.2)(14.2)2022-05(31.8)(41.8)(31.3)2022-06(18.3)(45.1)(40.7)2022-07(28.9)(45.4)(36.0)2022-08(26.8)(45.7)(2.5)2022-09(12.2)(44.4)(6.0)2022-10(23.2)(35.1)(9.4)2022-11(33.3)(50.8)(20.2)2022-12(31.5)(44.3)(6.6)2023-02(3.6)(9.4)8.0 2023-03(3.5)(29.0)32.0 2023-04(11.8)(28.3)37.2 2023-05(19.7)(28.5)24.5 2023-06(28.1)(31.3)15.2 2023-07(24.1)(26.5)32.7 2023-08(23.7)(23.0)10.1 2023-09(19.8)(15.2)23.9 2023-10(20.3)(21.2)13.4 010002000300040005000600070008000Q1 Q1 Q2 Q2 Q3 Q3 Q4 Q42013 2014 2015 2016 2017 20182019 2020 2021 2022 202314 22H2 2023 Wind 12 13 2.1(50)050100150200/-/152022 175057 160080 172700 140000145000150000155000160000165000170000175000180000202005202007202009202011202101202103202105202107202109202111202201202203202205202207202209202211202301202303202305202307202309 t/d 15 Wind 2.2 14 2020H2 2023 10 9.5/+35%15 2.0mm 22000320004200052000620007200082000920001020002019 6 2019 10 2020 2 2020 6 2020 10 2021 2 2021 6 2021 10 2022 2 2022 6 2022 10 2023 2 2023 6 2023 10 t/d 05101520253021-1 21-5 21-9 22-1 22-5 22-9 23-1 23-5 23-9-/16 2019 90%A 49%2.2 Wind 5/%20Q1 20Q2 20Q3 20Q4 21Q1 21Q2 21Q3 21Q4 22Q1 22Q2 22Q3 22Q4 23Q1 23Q2 23Q3 4%4%7%14%8%10%10%17%19%27%25%28%35%41%54%37%32%46%58%72%55%45%49%48%23%30%17%14%6%8%1%2%3%4%5%12%13%18%23%21%42%48%53%36%34%6%7%9%7%9%10%9%12%18%23%22%5%8%7%11%24%29%7%2%4%15%22%38%49%58%65%29%26%23%28%28%25%28%14%17%18%18%14%14%18%24%19%25%32%30%4%12%16%16%18%2%1%0%0%1%0%1%1%0%1%2%2%2%2%3%3%13%119%107%33%35%48%83%97%139%11%16%22%23%15%22%26%19%26%13%7%9%10%12%8%A 28%37%33%21%22%26%25%29%26%30%27%22%13%22%20%10%11%13%12%7%9%9%8%10%12%15%4%5%6%7%2%2%4%6%8%7%7%3%4%4%5%20%24%29%29%17 2.3 A“3+1”“”18 3.19 16 2021 2022 17 3.1-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%010020030040050060070016-0116-0516-0917-0117-0517-0918-0118-0518-0919-0119-0519-0920-0120-0520-0921-0121-0521-0922-0122-0522-0923-0123-0523-09-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%02040608010012016-0116-0516-0917-0117-0517-0918-0118-0518-0919-0119-0519-0920-0120-0520-0921-0121-0521-0922-0122-0522-0923-0123-0523-09 20 18 2400tex/19 G75/3.1 3000350040004500500055006000650012-0712-1113-0313-0713-1114-0314-0714-1115-0315-0715-1116-0316-0716-1117-0317-0717-1118-0318-0718-1119-0319-0719-1120-0320-0720-1121-0321-0721-1122-0322-0722-1123-0323-0723-1170009000110001300015000170001900012-0913-0113-0513-0914-0114-0514-0915-0115-0515-0916-0116-0516-0917-0117-0517-0918-0118-0518-0919-0119-0519-0920-0120-0520-0921-0121-0521-0922-0122-0522-0923-0123-0523-0921 3.2 4 12 20232025 EPS 0.79 0.89 1.14 2023 PE 1517 11.8513.43/2023H1 16 45 2023-2025 EPS 2.00 2.48 3.31 2023 PE 1517 30.0034.00 20232025 5.68 6.37 7.02 EPS 1.12 1.26 1.39/2023 PE 2025 22.4028.00 22 4.ROE 23 4.1 B 40 6%40 6%-PB 0.5,8%A 40 18%PB 5 13%A B 40 1.0 1.0 A%18%1 1.2 1.1 B%6%2 1.4 1.1 3 1.6 1.2 PB A A 4 1.9 1.3 1 18%74938%5 2.3 1.3 5 13%14908%6 2.7 1.4 7 3.2 1.5 PB B B 8 3.8 1.6 1 6%929%9 4.4 1.7 0.5 8%1957%10 5.2 1.8 11 6.2 1.9 12 7.3 2.0 13 8.6 2.1 14 10.1 2.3 15 12.0 2.4 40 750.4 10.3 6 A B 24 8 50%10/7/%Wind 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2013 年2023 2021 2023 5%8%4%6%8%8%6%3%10%5%7%7%7%8%72%86%71%74%55%72%45%7%5%26%4%7%9%5%61%50%114%39%24%56%25%153%109%98%49%87%98%67%88%90%183%117%96%95%103%28%15%19%26%26%23%23%15%19%22%26%25%20%25%102%107%120%62%59%70%56%24%18%19%20%17%25%21%132%72%49%116%234%100%125%61%89%49%48%50%59%42%62%179%215%361%-154%205%893%148%193%201%-402%422%396%4007%74%52%38%49%1188%65%103%16%27%30%48%177%53%94%97%58%67%35%351%143%143%253%275%79%71%127%136%93%4.1 25 Wind 8 4.1（次）2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 20142022 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 1.1 1.0 0.9 1.0 0.9 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.3 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.8 1.4 1.4 1.1 1.1 0.9 1.4 1.0 1.2 1.2 1.1 0.7 1.1 0.9 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.3（%）2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 20142022 46.1 46.6 48.0 48.0 49.2 46.7 23.1 33.5 34.7 34.9 35.2 36.0 33.5 17.1 4.0 4.8 6.5 7.3 10.0 4.8 3.9 23.6 23.7 24.4 30.0 28.5 24.4 16.7 7.0 7.0 7.9 8.3 9.1 7.7 5.6 13.0 12.4 13.1 12.3 11.5 12.3 13.6 8.9 7.7 4.7 7.8 8.6 8.9 10.1 7.7 8.1 8.6 7.6 8.3 7.8 8.0 12.8 12.1 11.9 11.5 12.6 12.2 7.8 3.6 2.9 3.1 5.2 5.7 3.6 4.1 20.5 20.0 22.5 18.5 18.2 19.6 19.7 9.4 10.3 14.2 12.1 5.8 11.1 9.6 20.3 17.8 16.5 16.2 13.1 16.2 11.7 10.2 10.7 11.5 4.3-6.8 9.2 7.5 5.3 6.0 5.2-4.9 2.0 5.3 7.3 4.1 8.2 11.9 10.0 0.5 8.9 9.6 23.2 20.8 18.8 18.7 11.4 18.7 12.1 13.0 13.5 17.8 28.5 9.0 13.0 7.9 23.9 17.7 16.6 26.1 21.7 19.6 6.526 20142022*19.7%10%9.6%11.7%9.6%12.1%/*20132022 75%23Q3 21%2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 20132022 52%52%52%52%96%58%49%49%50%50%55%50%46%40%46%48%48%42%32%36%32%30%31%32%31%106%36%32%31%41%20%25%35%40%40%33%43%60%60%50%50%52%42%46%41%41%58%46%48%29%102%72%46%53%30%30%39%33%36%33%80%80%67%78%74%75%29%23%22%18%12%18%32%31%32%32%35%31%23%33%34%33%-16%38%31%30%31%0%0%36%18%11%22%13%49%17%30%32%32%38%50%34%65%59%51%51%51%53%33%32%32%32%32%33%9/%Wind 10%2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 前三季度 26.5 22.5 21.4 22.8 19.4 14.1 24.4 28.5 22.9 25.2 23.6 17.9 45.2 46.6 48.5 48.9 47.8 41.9 20.3 20.9 19.1 18.9 19.0 15.8 29.0 29.9 28.8 33.5 31.8 32.5 32.0 35.5 36.7 38.4 42.3 47.3 52.3 48.6 45.5 47.3 43.7 45.9 64.9 64.4 65.5 65.2 64.0 63.8 63.1 60.4 58.1 66.2 71.3 69.7 66.9 65.3 66.5 62.7 59.8 58.7 20.7 19.0 23.2 23.3 21.5 20.6 58.8 55.6 46.7 46.3 46.2 41.0 19.4 32.2 23.8 26.5 25.0 23.9 41.6 43.6 52.6 62.0 65.2 60.9 57.8 67.6 70.8 82.5 82.0 80.0 29.4 36.2 39.2 49.6 52.4 48.6 22.2 20.4 16.3 16.8 19.7 20.4 41.0 36.9 33.5 35.5 47.1 53.4 52.0 52.1 50.1 46.3 40.8 43.74.1 27 LPR CRIC 4.2 20 2022 1-2023 9 28 12 21 12 Wind 4.2-50%-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%2011-092011-112012-022012-042012-062012-082012-112013-012013-032013-062013-082013-102014-012014-032014-052014-072014-102014-122015-022015-052015-072015-092015-122016-022016-042016-062016-092016-112017-012017-042017-062017-082017-112018-012018-032018-052018-082018-102018-122019-032019-052019-072019-102019-122020-022020-042020-072020-092020-112021-022021-042021-062021-092021-112022-012022-032022-062022-082022-102023-012023-032023-052023-082023-102023-122024-022024-052024-0729 12 22 12 Wind 4.2-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%2011-092011-112012-022012-042012-062012-082012-112013-012013-032013-062013-082013-102014-012014-032014-052014-072014-102014-122015-022015-052015-072015-092015-122016-022016-042016-062016-092016-112017-012017-042017-062017-082017-112018-012018-032018-052018-082018-102018-122019-032019-052019-072019-102019-122020-022020-042020-072020-092020-112021-022021-042021-062021-092021-112022-012022-032022-062022-082022-102023-012023-032023-052023-082023-102023-122024-022024-052024-0730 4.3 23 5 PE TTM PE TTM 5 0102030405060 Wind 31 4.3 24 5 PE TTM PE TTM 5 0510152025303540 Wind 32 4.3 25 5 PE TTM PE TTM 5 price in 0510152025303540 Wind 33 23H1 50.51 32.21%29.98%23H1 19 43%2023-2025 362 460 552 32 47 61 EPS 1.27 1.86 2.44/2023 23-28 PE 29.21-35.56/4.4 34 2023 26 2019-2023Q3 Wind 27 4.4 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%-50000-30000-10000100003000050000700009000011000013000015000035 4.4 B B 2023-2025 141.34 177.07 222.79 EPS 2.07 3.37 4.95 2023 PS3.5-4.0 93.86107.27 36 4.4+beta+alpha 2 3 18/0.70%1.05%20232025 EPS 0.85 0.86 0.96 2023 PE 2226 18.7022.10/37 4.4 2023 4000 60%+20232025 35.24 39.21 45.70 EPS 2.09 2.32 2.70/2023 14-17 PE 29.2635.53 38 270+2023-2025 EPS 1.30 1.64 1.94/2023 PE 24.0 2023 18-23 PE 23.40-29.90/4.4 39 +23 50-55 PE 59.00-64.90/23 PB 3.7-4.1 4.4 0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%28 4 40 5 41 SAC S0850516060004 021-23183846 SAC S0850519060001 021-23185636 42 1.6 6 2.A 500 10%-10%10%-10%6 10%-10%10%-10%

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