20231124_开源证券_充电桩行业2024年度投资策略：板块量利齐升根基市场在国内锦上添花看出海_37页.pdf
2024 S0790522080001 S0790123070003 2023 11 24 1.2023 9 764.2+70%+6%246.2+50%+8%106.1+51%+10%2022-2025 CAGR 71.1%2023-2025 89 148 235 2.+2025 96.6 94 3.V2G V2G 4.1 2 3 4 5 5.0YBYvMnQtQmNtNsRmRqPoPaQdN8OmOpPnPmPkPnMnMfQtRmQ9PoPqMwMtRtQNZmNvM123目 录CONTENTS 4567800V V2G 1.1 IEA EAFO 2023 8 1 2 2023 1 2020 2021 2022 2020 2021 2022 6.1 6.8 7.3 38%41%42%17.6 19.5 23.1 17%19%22%EU27 12.4 12.8 13.5 10%8%10%1.2 1 1.2.1 2012 2015-2018 2015 1 2015 2 2018 12 2019 2015-2018 3 2021 1000V 2 2019 050001000015000200002014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 1.2.2 1 2 3 400 600 2018 2017 2022 2020 2022 1 2023 2 2022 2023 3 2023 1.2.2 2 2017/6/23 2017 1 600 900 2 2017 20 2017 200 300+2020/2/26 2020 2017 4 12 2019 1 1(BOT)500+2022/9/29 A B+2022/10/1 20222023 200/;500/;10%15%50:0.1/+2023/5/30 30%50%0.05 0.8/+2023/6/1 2023 80 90 350KW 150 200 300 350/30%500 1.2.3 2016 74 2017-2020 2021-2022 60%2021 2022 111.5 213.2 kWh 58%91%3 2021-2022 4 2021-2022 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%0501001502002502019 2020 2021 2022 kWh YOY0%20%40%60%80%100%120%140%02004006008001,0001,2002015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022:1.3 2020-2022 46.22 93.54 259.26 4%102%177%29.12 33.94 65.05 34%17%92%17.10 59.60 194.21-24%249%226%2020-2022 9.4 16.1 29.1-11%71%81%5 2022 65.05 92%1.3 2023 9 764.2+70%+6%246.2+50%+8%106.1+51%+10%518.0+82%+5%5 2023 9 3.24+68%+31%5 2023 90%1 1-9 6.3+53%9 9666+24%+47%2 1-9 3.4+21%9 5687+70%+27%3 1-9 5.8+101%9 6591+42%+7%4 2022 9-2023 8 3500 9 7700 12 120%8+38%5 2023 1-8 1580 9 2760 8 75%8+39%1.4 2022-2025 CAGR 71.1%2023 355 2022-2025 CAGR 71.1%1 2023-2025 30%2 2023-2025 2.3 2.1 1.9 3 2023-2025 35%35%35%4 2023-2025 45%50%55%3 2022-2025 CAGR 71.1%2021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E 352 687 893 1,161 1,510 YOY 157.6%95.2%30.0%30.0%30.0%784 1,310 1,941 2,714 3,681 YOY 59.3%67.1%48.2%39.8%35.6%3.00 2.51 2.30 2.10 1.90 2,617,000 5,209,631 8,440,696 12,925,981 19,375,491 44%35%35%35%35%1,146,956 1,797,488 2,954,243 4,524,093 6,781,422 YOY 42.0%56.7%64.4%53.1%49.9%41%42%45.0%50.0%55.0%470,000 761,000 1,329,410 2,262,047 3,729,782 161,000 291,000 568,410 932,637 1,467,735 KW 140 150 160 170/W 3.8 3.7 3.6 3.5 154.81 315.47 537.20 873.30 YOY 103.8%70.3%62.6%676,956.0 1,036,488.0 1,624,833.9 2,262,046.7 3,051,639.8 359,532 588,346 637,213 789,593 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.15 5.4 8.8 9.6 11.8 160.2 324.3 546.8 885.1 YOY 102.4%68.6%61.9%56%65%65%65%65%1,470,044 3,412,143 5,486,452 8,401,888 12,594,069 1,942,099 2,074,309 2,915,435 4,192,181 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.15 29.1 31.1 43.7 62.9 189.3 355.4 590.5 948.0 YOY 87.7%66.1%60.5%Wind 1.5 2023-2024 89 148 Wind 2023-2025 1 2023-2025 30%30%30%2 2023-2025 2.3 2.1 1.9 3 2023-2025 35%35%35%4 2023-2025 45%50%55%2023-2025 8526 14922 24951 89 148 235 4 2023 2024 89 148 2021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E 352 687 893 1,161 1,510 YOY 157.6%95.2%30.0%30.0%30.0%784 1,310 1,941 2,714 3,681 3.00 2.51 2.30 2.10 1.90 2,617,000 5,209,631 8,440,696 12,925,981 19,375,491 44%35%35%35%35%1,146,956 1,797,488 2,954,243 4,524,093 6,781,422 YOY 42.0%56.7%64.4%53.1%49.9%41%42%45%50%55%470,000 761,000 1,329,410 2,262,047 3,729,782 161,000 291,000 568,410 932,637 1,467,735 KW 140 150 160 170 KW 4,074 8,526 14,922 24,951/W 1.10 1.05 0.99 0.94 YOY-5.0%-5.0%-5.0%45 89 148 235 123目 录CONTENTS 4567800V V2G 2.1 METI OECD 6 7 ADL2.2.1 0.0%5.0%10.0%15.0%20.0%25.0%8 EAFO ACEA 2.2.2 IT 2021 11 75 2030 50 2025 TEN-T 60 150kW 5 6/2022/6/9 AFCs 50 1 DCFC 4 4 DCFC 150kW 7 24 2022/9/14 9 35 8.5 2022/9/27 50 7.5 12.07 2025 TEN-T 60 150kW 2030 30 2022 63 2030 14 7 100 40%2500 25-100KW 50%1.2 100KW 3 5000 5 40%900 900/75%350 75%350 40 6500/MIA 36%V AMIL,75%2.2.3 EAFO Wind BIL SWEDEN OFV 2022 89.4%56.1%28.33 18.55 77%52.5%9 2.3 CE UL;,2.4 Wind IEA 7 2025 2021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E 63.0 98.3 157.3 243.8 365.7 YOY 114.3%56.0%60.0%55.0%50.0%222.0 296.0 394.1 559.0 812.9 YOY 16.1%29.5%45.0%47.2%39.4%19.47 23.13 23.00 23.00 23.00 11.4 12.8 17.1 24.3 35.3 YOY 15.2%12.3%33.9%41.9%45.4%1.5 1.4 4.3 7.2 11.0 YOY-31.8%-6.7%209.6%65.5%53.9%66.7%57.1%55.0%50.0%45.0%1.0 0.8 2.4 3.6 5.0 0.40 0.40 0.40 0.38 0.36 0.40 0.32 0.95 1.36 1.79 33.3%42.9%45.0%50.0%55.0%0.5 0.6 2.0 3.6 6.1 15.00 15.00 14.00 14.00 13.00 7.50 9.00 27.30 50.21 78.92 7.90 9.32 28.26 51.57 80.71 80.0%80.0%80.0%80.0%80.0%45.60 51.20 68.54 97.23 141.38 6.00 5.60 17.34 28.69 44.15 0.40 0.40 0.40 0.38 0.36 2.40 2.24 6.93 10.90 15.89 10.3 11.6 35.2 62.5 96.6 YOY 12.2%204.4%77.5%54.6%2025 1 2023-2025 60%/55%/50%2 2023-2025 80%3 2023-2025 23 1 4 2023-2025 45%50%55%2.5 8 2025 EAFO Wind EU27 2021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E 226 245 319 414 497 YOY 65.7%8.4%30.0%30.0%20.0%387 604 830 1,120 1,455 YOY 78.2%56.0%37.5%34.9%29.9%12.76 13.50 12.00 11.00 10.00 30 45 69 102 145 YOY 73.2%47.5%54.7%47.2%42.9%92.3%89.7%88.0%86.0%84.0%28 40 61 88 122 12 12 21 27 35 0.40 0.40 0.40 0.38 0.36 4.92 4.84 8.31 10.13 12.48 7.7%10.3%12.0%14.0%16.0%2 5 8 14 23 1 2 4 6 9 11.00 11.00 10.00 10.00 9.00 5.58 25.13 36.80 59.50 81.25 11 30 45 70 94 YOY 185.4%50.5%54.4%34.6%2025 1 2023-2025 30%/30%/20%2 2023-2025 12 11 10 3 2023-2025 12%14%16%123目 录CONTENTS 4567800V V2G 3.1 2023 1-8 47.4 20.2 2023 1-8 CR3 57.4%CR5 72.3%2023 1-8 CR3 67.5%CR587.7%2023 1-8 10 2023 1-8 CR3 57.4%11 2023 1-8 CR3 67.5%3.2 SaaS 1 2 3 12 SAAS 3.3 B B 9 2023 6 42.80 39.16 34.36 11.61 9.71 7.28 1 25.65 12.84 14.70 10.94 3.90 2.85 1 17.15 26.32 19.66 0.67 5.81 4.43 3 59.93%32.79%42.78%94.23%40.16%39.15%2 19.93 29.80 31.44 11.61 8.60 5.80 3 22.87 9.36 2.92 0.00 1.11 1.48 1 53.43%23.90%8.50%0.00%11.43%20.33%1 214.90 90.80 19.92%18.22%15.99%5.40%4.52%3.39%1 28.25%14.14%16.19%12.05%4.30%3.14%1 KW 1,414 953 1,020 748 216 324 1 KWH 77,820 59,648 31,539 59,606 11,121 9,290 1 7.64%8.69%4.29%11.07%7.15%3.98%3123目 录CONTENTS 4567800V V2G 4800V 800V/1 2 60KW 120KW 13 14 123目 录CONTENTS 4567800V V2G 5V2G V2G vehicle-to-grid V2G V2G V2G 15 V2G 123目 录CONTENTS 4567800V V2G 6.1 1 2 3 4 5 6.2 Wind Wind 10 EPS/PE 2023/11/23 2023E 2024E 2025E 2023E 2024E 2025E300001.SZ 18.95 0.39 0.68 1.02 48 28 18 600212.SH 7.60 0.09 0.29 0.55 81 26 14 300491.SZ 25.06 0.75 1.28 2.04 33 19 12 300693.SZ 28.58 1.25 1.78 2.43 23 16 12 002851.SZ 25.97 1.42 1.89 2.51 18 14 10 300510.SZ 6.22 0.21 0.34 0.52 30 18 12 688208.SH 27.47 0.83 1.22 1.68 32 22 16 300360.SZ 14.30 1.12 1.41 1.75 13 10 8 300648.SZ 28.16 0.26 1.08 1.75 108 26 16 002870.SZ 35.49 1.35 1.82 2.22 25 19 15 300351.SZ 18.40 0.55 0.71 0.91 32 25 19 301310.SZ 52.95 2.39 3.51 4.65 21 15 11 002276.SZ 10.70 0.59 0.77 1.00 18 14 11 300682.SZ 18.15 0.76 1.02 1.31 24 18 14 688612.SH 40.50 1.18 1.56 1.96 33 25 20 123目 录CONTENTS 4567800V V2G 7 612 A 300 500 buy 20%outperform 5%20%Neutral 5%5%underperform 5%overweight Neutral underperform 2017 7 1 R4 C4 C5 C4 C5 1788 1 10 18 C2 9 2030 1 45 1 B 5
