20231219_东海证券_石油石化行业年度策略：复盘油价周期暨2024年油气展望_42页.pdf
2024 S0630521110001 S0630522020001 S0630517120001 021-2023336342023 12 192 2020 2023 2020 2023 40 2017 2017-2022 CAGR 17.7%2022 1870 LNG 56%LNG 38.6%LNG LNG LNG 2020 2022 LNG 2012 41.4%56%60-90/2024 65/YWDWyRnQsRqRqOnOsPrOrQ9PcMbRpNnNnPnOiNmNoMfQsQnN7NrQmMxNmOsOvPnMoN HTTP:/WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 4 2020-4 OPEC+5 2021 OPEC+2022 OPEC+2023 OPEC+Wind 20202023/5 OPEC+2020 1 4 OPEC+4 12 OPEC+2021 1 2022 4 580/2022 OPEC+2022 5.6%2023 1-8 7.2%1276.5/OPEC 2022 OPEC EIA/6 2022 357.6/2021 22%64/2023 1-9 401/16%56/2021 2020 OPEC/EIA SPR 7 2021 39.6 13%19 13%21 10 11%11 2022 12 5 2 5 G7 Brugel 2021%Bloomberg Brugel 29%14%9%19%11%4%6%2%2%4%8 2021 2020 2021 80%90%2022 OECD Brent IEA OECD/IEA OECD%0510152025303501000200030004000500060002018-012018-062018-112019-042019-092020-022020-072020-122021-052021-102022-032022-082023-012023-06/-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%0500001000001500002000002500002018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 1-8%9 2020 40%3 2022 OECD OPEC 20202022 1394 1510 1495/2023 6000 OPEC/EIA%0246810121416020040060080010001200140016001800/-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%0500010000150002000025000300003500020042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023 1-10%HTTP:/WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 11 2020 EIA OPEC Wind 20202023 EIA OPEC Wind 20202023 0123456789102019-022019-052019-082019-112020-022020-052020-082020-112021-022021-052021-082021-112022-022022-052022-082022-112023-022023-052023-08()()0.00.51.01.52.02.52019Q22019Q32019Q42020Q12020Q22020Q32020Q42021Q12021Q22021Q32021Q42022Q12022Q22022Q32022Q42023Q12023Q22023Q3()()12 1.2.2020 4 2022 3.2022 2022 2022 9 2022 13 40 Wind 40/14 1973 1973 10 20 70 455 1978 EIA 1972 BP/BP/020040060080010001200140016001800197019731976197919821985198819911994199720002003200620092012201520182021 010002000300040005000600070008000900010000197019731976197919821985198819911994199720002003200620092012201520182021 OECD OECD OPEC OPEC 15 1990 7 8 2 20%2007 2005 2007 2007 2005 87/BP/EIA/EIA/050010001500200025001988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 16 1998 4.18%2.5%0.5%61%2001 911 1%2000 OPEC 4.32%2001 9 11 40%Wind WTI%-150-100-50050100150-8-6-4-202468产出缺口（%）实际的潜在GDP 增速（%）实际WTI 原油价格同比 增速（%，右 轴）HTTP:/WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 18 OPEC+2022 10 OPEC+366/7 100/9 5 100/7 8 9 2023 30/11 30 OPEC+3 OPEC 11 30 2024 1 OPEC+320/OPEC OPEC/EIA S&P/05001000150020002500300035002019-012019-042019-072019-102020-012020-042020-072020-102021-012021-042021-072021-102022-012022-042022-072022-102023-012023-042023-072023-10 808590951001057.07.58.08.59.09.510.010.511.011.512.02019-012019-042019-072019-102020-012020-042020-072020-102021-012021-042021-072021-102022-012022-042022-072022-102023-012023-042023-072023-10 CREA 14/0102030405060708090100 LNG LPG 19 12 24 1310/10/90/12 1 1620.1/90.5%12 8 626 1 154 503 2 122 2023 1 DUC DUC 2021 1 EIA 10 48 859 951 4524 2023 2014 EIA/EIA EIA/01002003004005006007008009001000020040060080010001200140018/Jan18/Mar18/Jun18/Aug18/Nov19/Jan19/Apr19/Jun19/Sep19/Nov20/Feb20/May20/Jul20/Oct20/Dec21/Mar21/May21/Aug21/Oct22/Jan22/Mar22/Jun22/Sep22/Nov23/Feb23/Apr23/Jul23/Sep/2.02.53.03.54.04.55.05.56.06.57.02018/012018/032018/052018/082018/102018/122019/032019/052019/072019/092019/122020/022020/042020/072020/092020/112021/012021/042021/062021/082021/112022/012022/042022/062022/082022/102023/012023/032023/052023/082023/10-SPR SPR01020304050607080901008001,0001,2001,4001,6001,80021/Jan21/Feb21/Mar21/May21/Jun21/Jul21/Sep21/Oct21/Dec22/Jan22/Feb22/Apr22/May22/Jul22/Aug22/Sep22/Nov22/Dec23/Jan23/Mar23/Apr23/Jun23/Jul23/Aug23/Oct23/Nov/%20 10 6393 9%206 10 4897 14%1-10 11%134%12%17%1-10 15672 55484 42426 2850.4 2.09 Wind/Wind%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%050100150200250200320042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023-032023-042023-052023-062023-072023-082023-092023-10/-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%140%160%21 GDP GDP GDP GDP OECD GDP 20002022 GDP OECD GDP 0.87 0.47 0.86 0.88 GDP OECD GDP 2000 WTO 2010 0.74 22 GDP IMF EIA OECD GDP%IMF EIA OECD GDP%IMF EIA OECD GDP%IMF EIA OECD GDP%IMF EIA OECD GDP%IMF EIA OECD GDP%-12-8-4048-3-1 1 3 5 7-10-8-6-4-20246820002001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022GDP(%)(%)-10-5051015200 3 6 9 12 15-10-50510152020002001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022GDP(%)(%)-15-10-5051015-4-1 2 5 8-12-8-40481220002001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022GDP(%)(%)23 OPEC IEA EIA OIES 2023 184249/160216/-20182/2024 93225/57160/-1695/IEA 180/240/75%IEA OPEC EIA OIES/IEA OPEC EIA OIES/IEA OPEC EIA OIES/96979899100101102103104105IEA OPEC EIA OIES2022 2023E 2024E979899100101102103104105106IEA OPEC EIA OIES2022 2023E 2024E-0.50.00.51.01.52.02.5IEA OPEC EIA OIES2022 2023E 2024E EIA EIA/HTTP:/WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 25 2022 40438 0.2%2012-2022 CAGR 2%2022 9786 2022 6184 2594 2218 bp-4%-3%-2%-1%0%1%2%3%4%5%6%0500100015002000250030003500400045002012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022-26 2012-2022 CAGR 4.2%2021 23.1%2022 24.2%2023 1-11 4.5%2021 17.4%2022 15.3%2017 2017-2022 CAGR 17.7%bp bp-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%5005506006507007502012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022-60-40-200204060801001200204060801001201401601802002012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022-27 2022 1870 LNG 56%38.6%12.9%44%EIA LNG 2024 3.77/133/bp 2022 EIA LNG 02468101214162016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024Normal CapacitySabine PassCove PointCorpus ChristiPipeline,44%LNG,56%,14.0%,30.2%,0.1%,3.5%,38.6%,0.8%,12.9%28 2022 LNG 402 1.8%1253 37.8%2022 4 1 9 1 Nord stream Yamal 0 2023 Nord Stream Yamel 2021 Q3 3.72/2022 2023 1.01/0.78/bp bruegel 2015-2020 EU27 0501001502002502012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022Pipeline LNG 0510152025303540451 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51 53 2021 2022 202329 LNG LNG LNG LNG LNG 2020 2022 LNG 5424 2012 41.4%56%2012-2022 LNG CAGR 5.3%CAGR-1%2022 LNG 2022 1276.52 212.77%35.05%2023 43 27 LNG 1084.03 41.61%bp LNG bruegel 2015-2020 EU27 LNG 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%01002003004005006002012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 LNG LNG-051015202530351 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51 53 2021 2022 202330 2010 2022 2.5/5.8/7%2019 2022 0.17/0.23/LNG 20152018 2022 41%2022 58%LNG 2021 7 EIA/%012345672016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%50%050010001500200025003000350040004500()()%54%56%58%60%62%64%66%68%0200400600800100012001400160018002019 2020 2021 2022 2023Q3 LNG HTTP:/WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 32 2024 60-90/2024 65/33 S&P Global 7500ft 2023 5 8 11%7500ft 2022 8 40 361-400IC 10 2022 90%IEA OPEC EIA OIES 7500ft IEA OPEC EIA OIES 361-400IC IEA OPEC EIA OIES 361-400IC EIA 7500ft 4050607080901000510152025303540452020-092020-112021-012021-032021-052021-072021-092021-112022-012022-032022-052022-072022-092022-112023-012023-032023-052023-07%-405060708090100051015202530354045502020-092020-112021-012021-032021-052021-072021-092021-112022-012022-032022-052022-072022-092022-112023-012023-032023-052023-07%-405060708090100024681012142020-092020-112021-012021-032021-052021-072021-092021-112022-012022-032022-052022-072022-092022-112023-012023-032023-052023-07%-405060708090100024681012142020-092020-112021-012021-032021-052021-072021-092021-112022-012022-032022-052022-072022-092022-112023-012023-032023-052023-07%-34 2022 140 2023 47 2023 262.85 51%2023 146 32.80 IEA OPEC EIA OIES IEA OPEC EIA OIES IEA OPEC EIA OIES EIA 01020304050602018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023H1 0%20%40%60%80%100%0200040006000800010000120001400016000-050100150200250300 050100150200250300350400450 35 2023 11 415.8 1-11 4322.5 86.6%11 508.3 20.4%1-11 5817.6 26.5%2023 EIA 2024 2.27/EIA/%EIA/Bloomberg/0%5%10%15%20%020406080100120198019821984198619881990199219941996199820002002200420062008201020122014201620182020 0.51.01.52.02.53.03.54.04.55.0Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec2018-2022 2022 2023 2024-0.50.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.5Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec2018-2022 2022 202336 ICIS IPEX 2021/ICIS IPEX 2004006008001000120014000 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 16000 18000/55/65/75/601101602102603103602000-012000-112001-092002-072003-052004-032005-012005-112006-092007-072008-052009-032010-012010-112011-092012-072013-052014-032015-012015-112016-092017-072018-052019-032020-012020-112021-092022-07US Gulf Index NW Europe Index NE Asia Index NE Asia Index 37 Wind 12 18 HTTP:/WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 39 6 300 20%6 300-20%20%6 300 20%6 300 10%6 300-10%10%6 300 10%6 300 15%6 300 5%15%6 300-5%5%6 300 5%15%6 300 15%1928 87 D 15F Http:/Http:/8621 20333275 18221959689 8610 59707105 18221959689 8621 50585608 8610 59707100 200125 100089
