AI 成 长 可期，需 求 复苏 可 望 相关研究：1.+2023.01.30 2.2023.06.26%1 3 12 1.19 10.9 4.1-5.6 1.8-8.8 300 S0500523010001 Tel(8621)50293694 Email 88 10 2024 ChatGPT AI 70 9 2024 Bloomberg Intelligence 2022 400 2032 1.3 2023 2030 AI 500 AI 200G/400G/800G AI 2025 171.4 5 13.8%2021 2025 25%AI APP FTTR WI-FI6 WI-FI7 AI AI HBM CXL TrendForce 2023 HBM 31.6 2025 100 Yole 2022 CXL 1700 2026 CXL 21 2028 CXL 158 2024 WSTS 2024 13.12%AI AI AI GPU 2024 IC 证 券研 究报告 2023 年 12 月24 日 湘 财证 券研究 所 行 业研 究 半 导体 行业 2024 年 度策 略 2 1ZEVyRrMsRqRoQtQrMsNrQ8OcMbRsQmMtRsRkPrQpNfQnPtO8OmMvNuOmQmOxNmQrM 3 正文目录 1 2023.6 1.1.6 1.2 A.8 2 2024.10 3 AI.11 3.1.14 3.2 AI.19 3.3 FTTR.22 4.24 5.28 6.28 4 图表目录 1.6 2 PC.6 3.7 4.7 5.7 6 12.15.9 7 5 SW-PE TTM 12.15.9 8.10 9.11 10 AI PC.13 11 AI 2020-2032.13 12 2022-2026 AI.14 13.14 14 AI.15 15.15 16.15 17.16 18.16 19.16 20.17 21 VS.17 22.18 23.18 24.18 25 Phy.19 26.19 27 HBM GB.20 28 CXL.20 29 9 1-.21 30 9 2-.22 31.22 32 FTTR.23 33.24 34 2024.24 35.25 36 20.25 37.25 38 PC.25 39.26 40 DXI 2023.12.21.26 41 DDR5.26 5 42 DDR4.27 43 DDR3-4GB.27 46 DRAM ASP.27 1.8 2.12 3.17 4.26 5 2023 2024.27 6 NAND FLASH.27 6 1 2023 1.1 2023 2023 2023YQ3 2023YQ4 PC Counterpoint Research 2023 10 27 10 5%PC Q4 Techinsighs 2023 Q4 PC 7%1 2 PC Counterpoint IDC 2023 2022 11 GPT3.5 API 2023 2023 7 268 130 AI AI TrendForce 2023 AI GPU FPGA ASIC 120 37.7%9%2023 Cleantechnica 2023 1-9 945.9 38.8%9 23%7 3 4 Trendforce Cleantechnica 2023 WSTS 2023 5201.3 9.4%2023 5.8%-3%30%IC 9%IC AI-0.9%5 WSTS 8 1 2022Y$2023Y$2022 2023 33993 35951 12.0%5.8%43908 42583 1.2%-3.0%21782 19417 13.7%-10.9%474402 422174 2.5%-11.0%*IC 88983 81051 20.1%-8.9%*79073 76579-1.4%-3.2%*IC 126578 174944 14.0%-0.9%*129767 89601-15.6%-31.0%WSTS 1.2 A SW 300 12 2023 12 15 SW 2023.01.01 12-10.1%s 300 5.4pcts PE 2023 12 15 67.8 TTM 300 5 128%,5 112.23%2023 AI 1 2023 ChatGPT 2 CPU GPU 3 4 AI Q2 5 7 8 Q3 9 9 Mate60 9000S 10 Q3 10 Mate60 11 6 12.15 wind 7 5 SW-PE TTM 12.15 wind 10 6 2 2024 2023 2023 2024 1 ChatGPT AI 70 Bloomberg Intelligence 2022 2032 42%2 2024 WSTS 2024 13.12%8 wind 11 3 AI 2023 ChatGPT-3.5 70 ChatGPT 9 To B 12 AI 2024 AI PC IDC AI PC AI IDC AI PC PC 2027 85%2/2023 5(2023-2025),2023 5 2023 5.2023 11(2023-2025)2023 11,2023 11 2023 13 10 AI PC IDC 2021 7%2026 30%2030 50%Bloomberg Intelligence 2022 400 2032 1.3 42%11 AI 2020-2032 Bloomberg Intelligence TrendForce 2023 AI GPU FPGA ASIC 120 38.4%9%AI 2023 46%2026 15%2022 2026 AI 22%14 12 2022-2026 AI Trendforce 3.1 AI AI AI AI 2023 2030 AI 500 13 iResearch AI AI IDC 1 GDP 3.5 1.8 2021-2025 IDC AI 2025 2000 15 14 AI IDC 400G/800G AI AI 0.1%50%100%NIC HPC TOP500 HPC TOP500 45.5%AI 200G/400G 400G/800G 15 16 Ethernet Alliance IDC 2022 365 18.7%2023 335 27.7%2023 400 IDC 16 IDC 2020 2025 3.2%2023 16.8%36.5%2023 200/400 Gbe 44.0%63.9%Mordor intelligence 2023 2028 5.36%17 18 IDC Mordor intelligence 2022 449.3 12.97%2025 574.2 2020-2025 10.8%19 CPU PHY PCB/CPU 30%CAGR:5.36%17 4%3/2020Y 763.54 12485.54 6.12%2021Y 354.2 10436.07 3.39%2022Y 386.63 9873.54 3.92%2016 318.5 2020 368.0 3.6%2025 434.0 3.4%20 21 VS AI 5G WiFi 6 2016 54.1 2020 90.0 13.6%2025 171.4 5 13.8%2020 2025 18%9.8%18 22 23 62%20%16%1.6%80%24/Phy MAC MAC PHY PHY&2021 120 2025 300 25%19 25 Phy 26 3.2 AI AI AI AI AI AI AI AI AMD GPU Transformer Pytorch TensorFlow MindSpore AI AI AI AI 2023 HBM TrendForce AI GPU HBM 2023 HBM 2.9 GB 60%TrendForce 2023 HBM 31.6 2025 100 TrendForce 2024 HBM 105%20 27 HBM GB Trendforce CXL CXL 2019 3 GPU CXL GPU CPU CXL MemVerge XConn H3 AI 2TB CXL Panmnesia 6TB CXL Yole 2022 CXL 1700 2026 CXL 21 2028 CXL 158 CXL DRAM 2028 125 79.1%2021 2028 228.21%28 CXL Yole 9 21 1998.1-2002.10 1990 31 2000 4323 10 130 60%2011.09-2015.08 2010/2011 2013 4G 4G 5G+2017 2022 ChatGPT AI 70 AI 29 9 1-wind 22 3.3 FTTR AI APP 6 68%APP 74 30%Wi-Fi FTTR Fiber to the room 31 FTTR 30 9 2-wind 23 FTTR FTTR ONT 1 WiFi 2023 FTTR 2025 FTTR 8%2030 31%15 20%FTTR 1300 FTTR 5000+WIfi6 WI-FI6 WI-FI6 9.6Gbps 10ms AP WI-FI5 4 30%VR/AR WI-FI6 IDC 2023 WiFi 39 WiFi 6 WiFi 6E 2023 WiFi 2024 6.4%41 he Brainy Insights 2022 Wifi-6 116.1 2032 Wifi-6 608.2 18%32 FTTR 24 Wifi-7 2023 7 Draft4.0 MTK Wifi-7 Wifi-7 10Gbps 320MHz Wifi-6 160MHz 4K/8K VR/AR 2024 Wifi-7 Gartner 2027 Wi-Fi 7 AP 1240 AP 27%wifi-7 30%4 2023 10 466 2023 9 449 3.9%8 0.7%WSTS 2023 5201.25 2024 13.12%5883.64 WSTS 2024 45%33 34 2024 2023Y$2024Y$2024 35951 37459 4.19%42583 43324 1.74%19417 20127 3.66%422174 487454 15.46%*IC 81051 84056 3.71%*76579 81937 7.00%*IC 174944 191693 9.57%*89601 129766 44.83%520125 588364 13.12%Wind WSTS 10 11 12 20 2022 8 11 20 2.4%12 20 19.2%25 35 36 20 Wind wind 2024 Counterpoint 2023 4 3.12 3%2023 12 5%Counterpoint 2024 3%Canalys 2023 6,560 7%8%Canalys 2024 PC 8%2.67 Trendforce 2024 AI TrendForce 2023 AI GPU FPGA ASIC 120 37.7%9%2024 38%AI 12%IEA 2023 1400 37%2024 1750 25%37 38 PC Counterpoint Canalys IDC Canalys 26 39 4 2020Y 297 137 137 31 2021Y 650 352 226 61 2022Y 1020 689 259 92 2023E 1400 940 300 140 2023E/2022 37%36%16%53%2024E 1750 1150 360 210 2024E/2023E 25%22%20%50%Trendforce IEA analysis based on EV Volumes ACEA Argonne DXI 9 DXI 12 21 DXI 23976.22 9 32.09%11.87%DDR DDR5 DDR4 DDR4 DDR3 Trendforce Q4 DRAM ASP 10%2024 ASP 40 DXI 2023.12.21 41 DDR5 DDR5 2023-10-31 17 11.11%2023-09-28 15.3 0 2023-08-31 15.3 0 2023-07-31 15.30 3.1%2023-06-30 14.84-2.3%2023-05-31 15.18-2.9%2023-04-28 15.64-17.6%2023-03-31 18.98 3.1%Wind wind 27 42 DDR4 43 DDR3-4GB Wind wind 5 2023 2024 44 DRAM ASP SK DRAM 2022Q4 100%100%93%85%98%2023Q1 97%92%84%75%92%2023Q2 77%81%72%82%79%2023Q3 73%81%69%76%76%2023Q4E 68%82%74%73%75%2024FQ1 79%82%74%75%80%2024FQ2 86%85%78%75%85%2024FQ3 93%91%83%76%91%2024FQ4 102%98%85%77%97%Trendforce Trendforce NAND NAND 8 Trendforce 2023Q4 NANDFlash 5%6 NAND FLASH 2022Q3 2022Q4 2023Q1 2023Q2 2023Q3 2023Q4E NAND Flash 5%-10%20%-25%10%-15%10-15%5-10%0-5%Trendforce 28 5 AI AI AI GPU 2024 IC 6 敬请阅读末页之重要声明 300 6-12 15%6-12 5%15%6-12-5%5%6-12 5%6-12 15%重要声明