20231219_民生证券_食品饮料行业2024年度策略(酒饮篇):取势优选高势能_50页.pdf
*01*2024 2023 12 19*C O N T E N T S 03 04 02 05 2023 0110YEVzQqNtQmNsMnOrMpQnM8OdN7NoMrRtRnOiNnMtRlOmOmM7NrQrRxNtRtRvPnOoQ*2023+2024 2024-20 500 KOL 20/25 2*6/9/16/20/V 300+100-300/M6+15 30+3*T68 2023 4*2023 2024 8 23-25 44.1/52.8/61.7 YoY 18.89%/19.67%/16.86%PE 22/19/16 U8 8 23-25 6.76/9.48/12.63 YoY 92.02.89%/40.14%/33.24%PE 39/28/21 23-25 13.67/15.59/17.24 YoY 8.17%/14.09%/10.58%PE 24/21/19 23-25 7.08/8.72/10.03 YoY 18.34%/23.21%/14.97%PE 26/21/18 5*2023,01.6*2023 iFind 2023.12.15 2023(18.27%12 15 18.27%0.51%-33.87%-33.12%-29.44%-30.36%15.65%2023 0.51%2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 20231+7.43%+53.85%+72.87%2 3-21.95%+84.97%4 5/-6.01%-15.12%-18.27%2023(24-18.27%106.52%-56.42%94.10%-55.26%69.15%-51.29%63.20%-51.00%58.85%-50.49%46.21%-50.39%17.94%-50.22%16.88%-50.22%15.38%-48.40%11.45%-43.94%2023 1.07-40%-20%0%20%40%-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%*2023 2023 iFind 2023 PE TTM 35X 27X PE TTM PE TTM 1.18-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%051015202530354045 PE TTM PE*wind 1.29-35.00%-30.00%-25.00%-20.00%-15.00%-10.00%-5.00%0.00%5.00%10.00%15.00%*/Wind 1.310-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%*wind 1.311-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%2023Q1-3 YoY YoY 1877.47 17.00%862.75 18.83%1032.68 18.48%528.76 19.09%625.36 12.11%228.33 14.24%219.43 25.21%105.66 28.58%377.21 10.89%122.28 18.31%267.44 20.78%94.31 32.68%52.45 13.62%12.95 7.93%35.88-4.84%10.22-3.08%21.42-38.54%4.79-50.75%638.49 19.53%196.55 21.47%302.83 14.35%102.03 12.47%159.53 24.98%38.13 45.37%83.63 28.35%26.36 26.63%48.04 23.42%16.55 37.57%44.46 18.18%13.48 12.22%184.42 7.61%7.02-20.42%38.46 11.30%4.18-21.60%16.43 25.77%2.29 63.88%88.07-3.28%-2.92-1159.20%20.19 29.32%2.73 27.55%10.73 31.73%-0.35 74.30%9.41 19.06%1.06 6.32%1.13 8.55%0.04-4.68%*2023 2023 74%14.4%74%1.2 wind 2023 Q3%1.41214.40%13.14%11.33%9.75%5.29%5.04%5.03%4.40%31.62%1734806766351269219168148275 74%7%5%3%3%2%1%1%1%1%1%1%*02.13*2023 WIND,1998-2022 2022 6626,9.8%2202 29.4%2022 963 2 2022 53%82%2023 100+1998-2022 2022 12 963 14-50%0%50%100%0500010000 yoy%-40%-20%0%20%40%0500100015001998200020022004200620082010201220142016201820202022 yoy%-202401000200030001998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 yoy%-40%-20%0%20%0100020002012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022%1998-2022 2.1*2022 9.66%29.72%284.51 22.60%16.70%168.87 44.39%24.17%59.62 0.64%65.98%52.65-20.21%63.96%42.95 103.02%31.93%25.26 226.85%-24.35%13.67 23.45%31.39%20.14-0.25%9.85%14.78 79.77%37.44%16.65 5.00%27.90%15.10 26.99%25.26%14.10-14.19%42.71%14.12 71.49%-21.90%6.71 12.07%32.31%9.85-23.35%50.91%8.74-31.94%135.58%12.95-30.94%14.12%1.64 2019 2.2 2022*2023 16 2022 CR5 74%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%20032004200520062007200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022 19%11%4%4%4%58%40%17%6%5%6%26%2022 CR5 42%2.3 iFind*2024 17 2023 20242.42022/22022/32022/42022/52022/62022/72022/82022/92022/102022/112022/122023/12023/22023/32023/42023/52023/62023/72023/82023/92023/10-25%-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%1601651701751801851901,2001,2201,2401,2601,2801,3002021/012021/032021/052021/072021/092021/112022/012022/032022/052022/072022/092022/112023/012023/032023/052023/072023/0936:)36:)Wind*&2023 2024 14 2022 683.5 10.6%0.6 18-14%-12%-10%-8%-6%-4%-2%0%2%4%6%02004006008001000120014001600%2.5*19 2023 1 10 61154.2 7.8%1 9 1.2 11142.5 19.7%44147.1 8.5%5864.6 40.0%10 2.7%2.6-2.2%-7.4%1.7%1.5%21.3%1.4%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%0200,000400,000600,000800,0001,000,0001,200,0001,400,0002016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022(4.2%-11.4%-0.8%4.1%35.7%-9.4%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%010,00020,00030,00040,00050,00060,00070,00080,00090,000100,0002016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022(*2018-202220 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 5785.9 5817.1 5483.9 5932.3 5714.4 2106.2 2410.4 1923.1 2141.1 1846.7 3513.9 3739.0 3826.5 4167.6 4056.3 2292.7 2347.8 2296.6 2834.5 3454.0 1857.7 2059.7 2051.2 2350.0 2824.4 2616.1 2652.4 2655.8 2765.6 2525.1 1240.9 1117.0 1085.0 1144.0 851.0 1282.6 1262.8 1152.5 1300.5 1290.7 7108.2 7165.1 7046.3 7771.8 7608.0 8630.2 8802.4 9059.0 10015.2 9258.9 6598.2 7048.6 7248.2 8262.6 8039.9 3048.7 3182.7 3216.0 3498.2 3589.1 3007.4 3052.9 3079.0 3383.4 3339.2 2373.0 2487.4 2507.5 2812.2 2948.3 6485.4 6526.7 6559.9 7284.5 7104.1 3766.0 4041.9 4168.8 4353.9 4250.4 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 3307.1 3388.6 2511.5 3283.3 3281.1 2860.8 3007.2 3008.7 3250.7 3101.8 12105.3 12654.5 12923.9 14105.0 13260.9 1681.5 1811.9 1716.9 1800.2 1687.7 752.7 814.1 816.1 921.2 832.4 2265.5 2134.9 2094.9 2285.5 2103.4 3911.0 4070.8 4260.9 4773.2 4880.6 1726.9 1767.5 1786.8 1969.4 1886.4 1994.4 2073.6 2116.7 2278.3 1949.5 230.4 222.0 221.0 215.6 179.6 2243.1 2287.9 2257.3 2775.4 3311.6 871.1 850.5 874.6 1001.9 907.7 272.9 282.3 298.0 328.8 329.1 436.5 423.6 419.4 460.0 460.2 1531.4 1577.6 1477.2 1618.6 1889.8 2.6*2018-202221 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 4988.8 4823.0 4643.9 5164.6 4867.1 1624.9 1634.4 1500.1 1621.9 1346.9 2555.8 2630.7 2527.3 2735.7 2242.9 1645.7 1783.7 1626.0 2094.7 2696.6 1399.9 1539.7 1457.8 1671.1 2134.4 1976.1 1929.5 1879.1 1970.9 1664.4 891.8 798.0 772.0 809.4 570.6 980.8 924.4 811.9 870.2 793.4 6285.0 6216.3 5841.9 6606.7 6349.2 7263.7 7339.6 7413.9 8171.3 6803.2 5586.6 5898.8 6261.8 7172.0 6620.3 2180.7 2209.7 2199.5 2389.9 2246.7 2237.4 2209.0 2184.7 2493.1 2092.4 1663.2 1747.6 1701.9 1929.3 1788.9 4897.9 4849.3 4757.6 5476.0 4795.5 2656.7 2841.3 2764.7 2842.6 2590.5 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2463.5 2530.8 1923.5 2559.7 2411.6 1959.7 2062.0 2058.0 2246.0 2004.5 9737.5 10064.0 9882.0 10785.2 9286.1 1122.1 1146.8 1113.2 1191.1 930.4 628.7 653.3 559.8 742.9 609.3 1603.0 1541.2 1430.7 1543.4 1270.9 2819.8 2888.7 2967.2 3334.9 3151.4 1266.0 1204.0 1086.0 1177.2 1021.8 1423.3 1450.6 1453.1 1514.2 1197.3 155.9 157.5 143.2 142.2 106.1 1774.3 1846.1 1752.1 2237.0 2682.9 610.5 577.9 567.9 667.4 582.8 205.5 198.7 213.3 234.7 255.8 298.3 267.5 263.9 300.7 306.8 1051.8 1016.1 910.2 1093.2 1222.3 2.6*2018-2022 2022 4000 22 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 880.3 923.3 1055.7 1016.3 1585.2 507.2 482.5 613.5 452.1 655.3 2770.1 2963.0 3940.6 3481.0 4402.5 1591.9 1727.8 2231.3 1962.5 2553.6 2352.8 2450.8 2758.7 2465.8 3287.6 2229.8 2350.1 2914.0 2595.5 3352.7 1949.9 2133.4 2461.4 2145.2 2915.3 2839.4 3121.7 3874.0 3012.9 4226.5 572.5 526.0 830.0 709.2 1148.2 1423.3 1433.2 1808.7 1573.4 2514.9 892.0 816.1 873.8 823.4 1610.4 2742.4 2985.8 3639.1 3141.9 4090.8 1114.4 1210.8 1476.3 1343.0 1747.8 2236.0 2478.7 2966.9 2585.1 3314.3 2447.4 2415.3 3030.4 2664.1 3705.9 3904.5 4163.2 5067.3 4381.3 5637.8 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2759.7 3064.6 4784.5 3364.0 4406.0 3126.6 3343.7 4111.2 3582.0 4695.5 1429.9 1334.6 1684.5 1264.3 2626.8 2603.3 2803.9 3381.9 3038.2 3914.2 758.9 736.5 1019.7 1085.1 1087.9 1581.2 1685.2 2081.1 1815.5 2297.0 4252.8 4597.7 5707.6 4933.0 6486.1 2554.3 2656.6 3166.2 3012.9 3650.3 2832.3 3305.1 4167.6 3373.3 4435.1 1547.5 1692.8 1977.9 1724.8 2505.2 2177.6 2337.4 2871.3 2543.8 3253.8 2210.8 2422.5 2938.5 2533.5 3209.1 1058.9 1157.1 1442.3 1349.2 1607.5 779.7 830.8 970.9 887.7 1191.7 2413.0 2699.4 3468.7 3089.2 3934.5 2.6*23()()()2019 2020 2021 2022 668 1,169 1,056 1,143 71.11%1,150 1,156 1,159 1,145-0.43%824 877 879 924 12.14%1,337 1,636 2,066 2,310 72.77%1,138 1,327 1,548 1,961 72.32%499 491 511 442-11.42%304 283 506 593 95.07%5,632 5,644 6,087 6,614 17.44%996 1,074 1,070 1,214 21.89%2,378 2,619 2,911 3,082 29.60%1,511 1,617 1,632 1,786 18.20%270 283 299 294 8.89%496 404 386 370-25.40%1,942 1,977 2,166 2,364 21.73%573 667 738 865 50.96%57 60 81 87 52.63%2.7*2012-2014 24 2012 2013 2014;2014;1573;1573 1573 2.8*2012-2014 25 2012 2013 2014,2014 O2O+3C 2012-2015 2.8*2019-2023 26 2019 60%2019 2023 252.85 409.90 62.1%45.3%136.80 156.27 14.2%47.6%36.41 110.09 202.3%58.8%52.58 102.76 95.4%120.7%24.18 41.93 73.4%128.5%9.33 14.51 55.5%167.9%15.20 24.29 59.8%32.1%144.33 164.91 14.3%30.2%21.51 40.93 90.3%61.9%30.15 64.44 113.7%60.4%26.98 43.03 59.5%45.8%23.33 47.96 105.6%9.9%8.38 13.86 65.4%29.7%15.77 31.63 100.5%15.5%8.48 15.59 83.9%23.1%7.52 17.22 129.1%45.3%2.8 Wind 30.0%17.0%16.6%11.4%9.3%8.6%11.8%11.8%10.8%18.9%16.8%14.1%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%02004006008001,0001,2001,400*2019-2023 27 2021 13-15 16 20%2.8 Wind 29.6%9.8%22.5%14.2%9.4%9.5%8.8%10.6%9.8%16.9%18.2%14.4%0%10%20%30%40%0200400600800 14.8%8.6%2.2%0.1%2.5%11.5%21.9%31.7%16.6%22.3%18.3%20.0%0%10%20%30%40%050100150200 38.5%32.4%13.6%10.7%11.0%6.7%13.7%8.0%10.1%20.6%14.3%11.4%0%10%20%30%40%50%0100200300400500*28 2.90501001502002503003504002011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 20220%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%Wind*29 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 7.20 12.25 18.58 16.75 14.85 16.81 29.86 25.72 32.79 25.48 27.37 32.98 20.70 22.59 33.82 43.09 35.68 46.95 36.25 37.78 49.86 55.79 65.04 68.44 3.90 6.65 6.80 5.79 8.74 15.39 24.12 33.93 41.86 30.91 35.99 34.49 9.21 13.78 16.67 11.14 9.15 7.75 10.80 16.27 25.81 22.76 31.60 34.04 1.29 2.83 4.44 3.52 2.38 3.18 4.80 6.10 5.74 5.37 8.76 10.16 2.70 3.23 2.70 1.90 1.24 1.65 2.05 3.46 3.84 4.24 8.60 10.24 4.18 4.69 3.66 2.59 1.88 2.50 5.51 8.54 10.64 8.41 12.27 12.79 12.09 17.75 13.88 16.80 18.82 18.69 23.87 25.61 26.92 26.04 35.44 41.79 5.21 5.59 4.82 4.53 4.40 4.67 4.28 5.86 8.53 8.75 9.68 13.90 7.98 10.76 12.80 13.04 15.58 19.80 21.70 26.83 31.85 31.21 40.08 46.68 5.01 5.62 6.12 3.60 3.82 3.82 4.07 4.51 4.63 4.20 4.45 5.05 3.09 3.61 4.16 4.05 3.58 3.61 3.19 3.36 3.96 5.46 6.39 7.00 2.9 Wind*30 1 2 52 2 15 20 1 42 20 2 52/38 30 20 3 3 20 1952 20/31 38 1573 30/8 52 1573 980 11 60 478/43 438,38 428 3 1 8 5 20 10 4 1 20 4 14 53 100 6 20 20 20 1 7 3/8 18 15/11 40.8 30 11 20%2023 2023 400 Q3 2.9*31 2018 789 820 850-860 2018 10 12 2019 2 21 60 2019 3 2019 4 500 2019 5 20 2019 5 21 2019 6-8 55%10%35%2019 15000 2018 2.9*32 2.9 1 2016 6 B2B B2C O2O P2P 2 2017 30%3 2022 3 i S2B2C 4 2023 1 APP 1 i+2023 3 31 3721 202.5 C 2 55 2023 1 2 23 100 1 2 3+1 2 3 SFA 1 2013 7000 8000 70%2013 3500 6000 2 3 BC SAP-ERP CRM CRM SAP-ERP 200 B*33 2019 2020 2021 2022 3146 3794 3741 3399 8.0%1965 2247 2391 2223 13.1%901 930 1109 1307 45.0%323 349 420 558 72.9%129 133 203 262 103.4%223 164 189 182-18.5%312 307 392 447 43.5%173 182 252 308 77.5%1376 1192 1430 1857 34.9%344 297 318 368 6.7%373 321 425 499 33.6%915 723 871 872-4.7%2019-2022 2019 2020 2021 2022 2482 2150 2193 2189-11.8%1968 1961 2054 2489 26.5%2303 2047 1783 1703-26.1%642 645 728 768 19.6%1847 2251 2796 2869 55.3%317 491 467 323 1.9%1459 1270 1785 1835 25.8%528 763 1256 1586 200.4%3302 3116 2950 2977-9.8%6846 5935 5192 5261-23.2%330 400 415 395 19.7%2951 3391 4007 4399 49.1%569 623 643 689 21.1%419 439 468 478 14.1%2019-2022 2.9 Wind*03.34*Wind 2023.11.29 3.035 Q1 12%11.1pct 4 29%10 8 1 2 2022 2023 3-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%2023-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%*2023 Wind 23H1 Q3 2023 1-10 3180.4 2.2%Q1 Q2 Q3 Q3-11.25%23 23M9 0.21%4.96%5.69%4.97%6.03%19M9+1.38%-3.28%-0.84%-4.9%3.13623Q1 23Q2 23Q3 236 11.02%266 2.66%227-11.25%82 3.70%90.32 5.74%92 5.33%96 12.80%132.69 2.23%114 4.25%26 11.50%42.7 5.17%46 1.43%221 9.11%273.81 9.55%276 0.56%23H1 19H1 23M9 19M9 502 6.42%6.09%729 0.21%1.38%173 4.76%/265 4.96%/229 6.42%-11.19%343 5.69%-3.28%69 7.49%12.31%115 4.97%/657 4.38%3.07%/495 9.35%-0.68%771 6.03%-0.84%2023 2023 i 19 19Q3*2023 23 23M9 6.20%1.94%3.76%5.47%5.16%19M9 22.74%23.78%12.85%22 1 8 2 Q3 3 23 1 2 3 1664 U8 97 3.137/23Q1 23Q2 23Q3 4531 4.76%4092 5.35%4133 7.52%4759 0.51%4880 3.97%4794 1.25%3661 0.83%3089 5.30%4199 4.11%3955 6.51%4069 5.88%3854 4.45%835 3.47%764 4.87%721 6.50%/23H1 19H123M9 19M9 4299 5.28%22.97%4247 6.20%22.74%4822 2.31%/4812 1.94%/3330 3.72%32.86%3619 3.76%23.78%4026 6.06%17.07%3957 5.47%/3484 4.38%17.99%/795 4.19%12.38%768 5.16%12.85%2023 2023*2024 3.238 2023.10 2023 2022 8-10 10 6 2024 26%31%36%36%34%59%56%51%51%53%15%14%13%12%13%0%50%100%2019 2020 2021 2022 2023M9 35%36%40%19%19%16%45%45%44%0%50%100%2021 2022 23M9 11%13%17%19%22%0%50%100%2019 2020 2021 2022 2023H1*3.339 10 8 6 2022/2022/02000400060008000100001200014000020000400006000080000100000120000 0%20%40%60%80%100%CR3CR5*2023 22H1/22H2 23 23H1 3%23Q2 Q1 Q1 23Q3 3.440(/)23Q1 23Q2 23Q3 2795 3.96%2452 2.35%2442 2.45%38.32%0.47pct 40.08%1.76pct 40.93%2.9pct 2525 5.65%2418-0.10%2420 3.40%45.16%-2.52pct 51.45%1.85pct 50.53%-1.09pct 2315-2.61%1678 2.61%2186 3.71%36.78%2.24pct 45.66%1.41pct 47.96%0.22pct 2342 5.80%2106-0.87%2091 2.93%40.79%0.40pct 48.24%3.52pct 45.74%0.80pct 416 5.21%369 2.32%336 6.70%50.22%-0.8pct 51.67%1.21pct 51.20%-0.09pct(/)23H1 23M9 2613 3.39%2560 3.35%39.21%1.11pct 39.73%1.66pct 2537 2.68%2496 2.92%48.48%-0.19pct 49.19%-0.51pct 1946 0.86%2026 1.81%41.56%1.66pct 44.03%1.07pct 2196 1.78%2154 2.31%45.46%2.29pct 45.57%1.68pct 1909-0.99%/45.22%2.97pct/390 3.65%376 4.88%50.99%0.25pct 51.06%0.13%2023 2023*2024 Wind 65%20%15%45%2022 2023 2 23Q1 Q2 Q3+2%-10%-12%2023 8 5 22H1 22H2 23H1+1%-8%-17%23Q1 23Q1 Q2 Q3+4%+19%-2%3.441,14%,5%,1%,2%,48%,30%-20%0%20%40%60%0.000.501.001.502.002019/102020/22020/62020/102021/22021/62021/102022/22022/62022/102023/22023/62023/10 yoy 0%3%5%-5%-0.7%0.3%1.0%-8%-1.2%-0.2%0.5%-10%-1.5%-0.5%0.2%-15%-2.3%-1.2%-0.5%i*2024 Wind 3.44201002003004005002020/12020/52020/92021/12021/52021/92022/12022/52022/92023/12023/52023/901,0002,0003,0004,0002020/12020/52020/92021/12021/52021/92022/12022/52022/92023/12023/52023/905,00010,00015,00020,00025,0002020/12020/52020/92021/12021/52021/92022/12022/52022/92023/12023/52023/901,0002,0003,0004,0005,0002020/12020/52020/92021/12021/52021/92022/12022/52022/92023/12023/52023/9/*Wind Wind 2023 12 8 PE TTM 26X 2010 12 8 PE 2024 20 x/H PE 18/12X 19X 22X 30X 15X 22 2.7%20X 3 CAGR 3.5430204060801002010/12011/12012/12013/12014/12015/12016/12017/12018/12019/12020/12021/12022/12023/105101520253035051015202530 PE TTM PE 2024 PE 2024*04.44*wind,2023 12 15 454.1 EPS PE 2023/12/15 2022A 2023E 2024E 2022A 2023E 2024E 600519.SH 1645.00 49.93 59.24 69.67 33 28 24 000858.SZ 133.70 6.88 8.06 9.30 19 17 14 000568.SZ 172.05 7.04 9.08 11.20 24 19 15 600809.SH 217.5 6.64 8.51 10.64 33 26 20 600702.SH 89.24 3.78 5.02 6.48 24 18 14 002304.SZ 107.35 6.22 7.40 9.03 17 15 12 000596.SZ 225.91 5.95 8.20 10.30 38 28 22 603369.SH 46.94 1.62 2.03 2.50 29 23 19 603198.SH 64.66 1.73 2.27 2.75 37 28 24 603589.SH 44.09 2.88 2.98 3.40 15 15 13 600599.SH 25.51 0.77 0.82 0.99 33 31 26 600600.SH 69.81 2.72 3.41 4.15 26 20 17 600132.SH 62.41 2.61 3.02 3.66 24 21 17 002461.SZ 7.95 0.27 0.31 0.35 29 26 23*05.46*1.2.3.47*THANKS 8 1 5F 200120 28 A 18 100005 6001 32 05 518026 S0100521090002 S0100521100002 S0100122070002 48 S0100523060004*12 A 300 500 15%5%15%-5%5%5%5%-5%5%5%*49