20231212_西南证券_公用事业行业2024年投资策略： 水核稳健投资火电盈利趋稳_56页.pdf
水核 稳健投资，火 电盈利趋稳 西 南证 券研 究发 展中 心 公 用 事 业&环 保研 究团 队 2023 年12 月 公用 事业行 业2024 年投资 策 略 1 2023 11 2024 2024 2024 2014 10+11 30 300 9.7%/20.6%/16.4%30.3%/26.1%+2022 1.7%21 1.9%1 2 3 4 5 ZXDWwPqNsRpOpRnOsPoRnMbR9R9PsQnNnPpMkPnMmOlOnMoN9PrQtQuOnQxOMYoPrQ 2 2023 2024 2024 3 2023 数据来源：Wind，西南证券整理 300 300 3 300 2023 11 29 7.55%12/32 2023 11 29+4.2%+7.9%-2.2%+5.0%-11.6%-19.2%-20.5%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%()300 7.55%6.94%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%()()()()()()()()()()()()()()()()4.2%7.9%-2.2%5.0%-11.6%-19.2%-20.5%-25%-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%2023 14724+3.6%1467+51.8%2022 2023 2023 2023 4 数据来源：Wind，西南证券整理 2023 10.8%6.7%-0.3%18.7%13.5%3.6%-5%0%5%10%15%20%05000100001500020000 16.1%7.3%28.6%-68.0%80.7%5178.0%-1000%0%1000%2000%3000%4000%5000%6000%02004006008001000120014001600 2023Q1 2023Q3 3365+0.7%267+789%+2023Q3 576+33.6%215+46%2023Q3 255+8.0%34.1+5.4%2023Q3 138-2.5%18.1-2.8%2023 2023Q3 404+1.0%60.3+10.0%5 数据来源：Wind，西南证券整理 2023-10%0%10%20%30%40%0100020003000400050002023Q1 2023Q2 2023Q3-200%0%200%400%600%800%1000%02004006008002023Q1 2023Q2 2023Q3 6 2023 2024 2024 7 数据来源：Wind，西南证券整理 2.1 2023 6 1-10 11 1 1-2 2 2-2 3 3-6 4 7-10 5 10 8 数据来源：Wind，西南证券整理 2.1 2023 10 3.1%2022 2023 3-5 4.3%7-9 9 10 3.8 67%9 10 3599 23.3%14.6%9 数据来源：国家统计局，西南证券整理 2.1 2023 2023 2023 70.8%150.7%72.7%92.7%110.1%67.2%50.8%27.8%23.3%0%50%100%150%200%010002000300040005000600070001-2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10%3.7 3.9 4.0 4.2 3.8 3.9 3.9 3.8 3.8 3.9 3.9 0%1%2%3%4%5%3.43.63.84.04.24.4(%)2023 11 24 CCTD/6997/3576 22 1577/893/433 11 16 26.2 22 8.1 22 18.1 10 数据来源：Wind，西南证券整理 2.1 2023 2022-2023 2022-2023 2022-2023 CCTD 010002000300040001/1 2/1 3/1 4/1 5/1 6/1 7/1 8/1 9/1 10/1 11/1 12/12022 202302000400060008000100001/1 2/1 3/1 4/1 5/1 6/1 7/1 8/1 9/1 10/1 11/112/12020 2021 2022 2023010203040 /2023 11 24 192.67 22 99.8%/2023 11 24 851.75 22 1.5%777.06 22 3.3%/2022 11 数据来源：Wind，西南证券整理 2.1 2023(230)(247)0500100015001 1 2 1 3 1 4 1 5 1 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 1 10 1 11 1 12 1 2022 2023 0500100015001 1 2 1 3 1 4 1 5 1 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 1 10 1 11 1 12 1 2022 2023 01002003004005001 1 2 1 3 1 4 1 5 1 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 1 10 1 11 1 12 1 2022 2023 2023 11 16 187 3 11 23 499 6.3 11 7.1%5.7%12 数据来源：Wind，国家统计局，西南证券整理 2.1 2023 01002003004005006007001/1 2/1 3/1 4/1 5/1 6/1 7/1 8/1 9/1 10/111/112/12022 2023 2022-2023 2022-2023 2022-2023 0501001502002503001/1 2/1 3/1 4/1 5/1 6/1 7/1 8/1 9/1 10/1 11/1 12/12022 2023-40%-20%0%20%40%60%05001000150020003 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2022 2023%2023 9 16%1-9 5.2%13 数据来源：Wind，国家统计局，西南证券整理 2.1 2023 2023(%)-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2021-2022 10 1.4%7 80%14 数据来源：Wind，国家统计局，西南证券整理 2.1 2023 2022-2023 2020-2023%)2.1%8.9%1.4%5.70%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%2020 2021 20222023 1-10 YOY YOY YOY YOY 138%136%125%84%62%55%54%59%62%0%50%100%150%020004000600080002 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2022 2023 0%50%100%1 1 2 1 3 1 4 1 5 1 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 1 10 1 11 1 12 1 2022 2023 2022-2023(%)2023 1-10 2022 2020-2022 3860/920/1090 2024 15 数据来源：国家统计局，西南证券整理 2.1 2024 2022-2023(%)2022(2020-2022 5.1%1.6%0.6%6.6%0%10%20%30%40%2023 1-10 2022 3860 920 1090 0100020003000400050002020 2021 2022 352 249 226 224 170 122 91 168 02004006008002015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 9 9 10 19%/13%2024 16 数据来源：海关总署，国家统计局，Mysteel，西南证券整理 2.1 2024 2020-2023 2023 1-10%62%18%4%13%0%100%200%300%400%500%05001000150020001 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2020 2021 2022 2023 2023 1-10 5.8%10 8.4%17 数据来源：国家统计局，西南证券整理 2.1 2024 2022-2023%2023-10%-5%0%5%10%15%02000400060008000100001 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2022 2023-40%-20%0%20%40%60%2023 1-10 5.8%10 8.4%4 2022 18 数据来源：国家统计局，西南证券整理 2.1 2024 2022-2023 2022-2023-10%0%10%20%30%050010001500200025001 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2022 2023-10%-5%0%5%10%15%010002000300040001 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2022 2023 19 数据来源：百川盈孚，西南证券整理 2.1 2024 70080090010001100120013001400150016001700 Q:5500)/850/0.47/kWh 850/20 数据来源：Wind，西南证券整理 2.1 5021 4379 360040004400480052002013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 870 1332 0%2%4%6%8%0500100015002013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2013-2022/kWh 0.46 0.47 0.48 0.49 0.50 0.51 0.52 750 130 173 215 257 299 341 383 800 66 106 148 190 232 274 317 850-3 39 81 123 165 208 250 900-70-28 14 56 99 141 183 950-137-95-53-11 32 74 116 1000-204-162-120-77-35 7 49 1050-271-229-186-144-102-60-18&ROE 2024 1 1 ROE 21 ROE 数据来源：Wind，西南证券整理 2.1-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%-150-100-50050100150200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022 ROE%50%330/30%1GW 1 22 数据来源：Wind，西南证券整理 2.1(/23H1-1GW 1 90%GW GW GW 23E(wind)600027.SH 511 9 57.3 46.2 57.3 100%81%59 46 79%600011.SH 1,162 9 130.0 94 107.3 83%72%146 94 64%601991.SH 461 6 72.3 47.2 53.8 74%65%/35 47 135%600642.SH 288 18 16.2-11.9 73%-31 11 34%600023.SH 611 18 33.1 28.9 32.9 99%87%69 29 42%000543.SZ 146 11 13.2-100%-14 12 84%600021.SH 248 12 21.1 8.4 9.9 47%40%21 8 40%000539.SZ A 277 9 29.8 20.6 26.9 91%69%26 21 79%000690.SZ 104 30 3.5 3.5 3.5 99%99%12 4 29%600795.SH 696 7 100.0 71.7 72.7 73%72%/73 72 99%600863.SH 241 19 12.8 11.4 11.4 89%89%27 11 42%600578.SH 199 11 18.71-18.46 99%-/11 17 155%000899.SZ 82 23 3.6-3.4 93%39%-3-000966.SZ 126 16 8.1-6.3 78%-8 7 88%000600.SZ 96 10 9.2-9.2 100%-3 8 248%000767.SZ 94 9 10.8-10.8 100%-10-600509.SH 84 26 3.2 2.6 0.6 18%82%6 2.6 43%2022/23 数据来源：北极星火电网，西南证券整理 2.1 7.2 4.6 4.2 0.1 3.3 7.3 2.1 12.4 20.2 18.7 11.5 13.3 6.3 9.3 4.0 7.0 4.6 5.3 9.8 13.9 5.4 4.0 6.0 0510152025-GW 7.2 4.6 4.2 0.1 3.3 7.3 2.1 12.4 20.2 18.7 11.5 13.3 6.3 9.3 4.0 7.0 4.6 5.3 9.8 13.9 5.4 4.0 6.0 0510152025-GW 24 数据来源：公司公告,国家能源局，西南证券整理 2.1 2023H1 91%2023H1 5/Kwh 12.6 8.5 7.04 8.2 0.006 0.008 0.006 0.009 0.0000.0020.0040.0060.0080.0100.02.04.06.08.010.012.014.0/Kwh 11 28 171.4/356 2022 25 数据来源：Wind，西南证券整理 2.2 801301801 1 3 1 5 1 7 1 9 1 11 1 2023 2022 2021 02004006001 1 3 1 5 1 7 1 9 1 11 1 2023 2022 2021 801301801 1 3 1 5 1 7 1 9 1 11 1 2023 2022 2021 01002003001 1 3 1 5 1 7 1 9 1 11 1 2023 2022 2021 26 数据来源：各公司公告，西南证券整理 26/26.2/5.5/2.0/1.4GW 2005/6.94/5.42/4.02 2022 3.68/26.2/5.5/2/1.4GW 2500 2500/8.3/7.8/3.5/3.7GW 2.2 140 2025 260 2035 72 2035 210 2035 150 2035 832-240 2030 102 2029 240-165-30-777-200 2023 86 2025 30 2025 36 2025 352-39 2025 224 2025 200 2026 75 2025 82.6 2029 620.6-2582-27 数据来源：国家能源局，西南证券整理 2023 2030 27 2.2 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E 2028E 2029E 2030E 70629 75753 83280 87852 91542 90673 94822 98832 102833 106949 111068 115279()19.00 19.77 21.60 23.26 26.00 23.74 25.40 27.07 28.75 30.43 32.12 33.80 35.48()3.53 3.58 3.70 3.90 4.14 2.71 2.83 2.95 3.02 3.10 3.17 3.24 3.31()0.45 0.49 0.50 0.53 0.57 0.60 0.64 0.68 0.75 0.83 0.90 0.98 1.06()1.84 2.10 2.82 3.28 3.65 3.47 3.90 4.32 4.77 5.22 5.67 6.12 6.58()1.74 2.05 2.53 3.07 3.93 3.54 4.16 4.79 5.70 6.61 7.52 8.43 9.35()10.06 10.41 10.80 11.09 11.20 11.69 11.99 12.30 12.36 12.42 12.48 12.54 12.60()0.83 0.90 0.98 1.09 2.12 1.30 1.40 1.51 1.59 1.67 1.75 1.84 1.92 0.18 0.24 0.27 0.30 0.41 0.42 0.48 0.54 0.56 0.59 0.62 0.64 0.67 3613 3697 3827 3622 3412 3800 3800 3800 3800 3800 3800 3800 3800 7184 7394 7453 7802 7616 7900 7900 7900 7900 7900 7900 7900 7900 2095 2082 2078 2232 2221 2200 2200 2200 2200 2200 2200 2200 2200 1212 1285 1281 1281 1337 1300 1300 1300 1300 1300 1300 1300 1300 4495 4416 4323 4586 4594 4677 4663 4626 4612 4632 4661 4690 4726 2767 2646 2610 2814 2429 2800 2800 2800 2800 2800 2800 2800 2800 7000 7000 7000 7000 7000 7000 7000 7000 7000 7000 7000 2017-2022 3.6%4.4%2017 2.7%3.3%2016-2020 0.65/2021-2025 70%2020-2022 2021-2023 50%28 2017-2022%2022%数据来源：Wind，西南证券整理 2.2+67.2%66.2%69.4%60.5%70.6%94.3%0%20%40%60%80%100%2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 4.4%4.3%3.7%3.7%3.6%4.1%0%2%4%6%8%10%12%2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 11 30 300 9.7%9.6%19.3%2014 10 29 10%2023 19.3%数据来源：Wind，西南证券整理 2.2 0%1%2%3%4%5%6%7%:10-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%300 2023 7 6 2025 70GW 2023 10 56.76GW 2023-2025 13-14GW 30 2023 6 2008-2023 数据来源：国家发改委，西南证券整理 2.3 14 6 6 3 8 6 4 5 10 6 02468101214162008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023 5 6 2*121 1 2 2*125 1 2 2*129 CAP1000 5 1-2 31 数据来源：各公司公告，西南证券整理 2.3 2024H1 4 2016 12 118 2025 1 2019 12 120 2026 2 2020 10 120 1 2020 12 100 2027 5 2022 9 120 2 2021 12 100 2028 6 2023 8 120-798 2024 1 2019 10 121 2025 2 2020 9 121 2026 7 WER-1200 2021 5 127 2021 7 13 2027 3 WER-1200 2021 7 127 8 WER-1200 2022 2 127 3 CAP1000 2022 6 125 4 WER-1200 2022 8 127 2028 4 CAP1000 2023 3 125 1 CAP1000 2023 11 129 2029 2 CAP1000-129-1271-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%300 2019-2022 40%11 30 300 9.7%/20.6%/16.4%30.3%/26.1%32 2023 30.3%2023 26.1%数据来源：Wind，西南证券整理 2.3-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%300%40.5%42.2%43.6%44.1%0%10%20%30%40%50%2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 ROE ROE 20%ROE 33 2022 ROE%2015-2022 数据来源：公司公告，西南证券整理 2.3 ROE+23%21%19%19%17%11%6%3%0%5%10%15%20%25%ROE 2015-2022%170 185 199 234 261 311 356 467 01002003004005002015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2.1%2.8%2.7%3.2%0%1%2%3%4%2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 34 数据来源：EI，国家统计局，西南证券整理 34 2012-2022 2022 21 5%22 12%2023 1-10 3188 7.4%2.4 2012-2023 2012-2022%2012-2023%2.1%1.2%2.1%2.1%1.0%3.6%5.0%2.9%-2.7%5.0%-0.2%-4%-2%0%2%4%6%01000020000300004000050000 050001000015000200002018 2019 2020 2021 2022-5%0%5%10%15%20%01000200030004000 35 数据来源：隆众资讯，西南证券整理 35 2022 11 27 TTF 44.19/12.6%2022 123.28/64.2%6 Q4 2024 2.4 2021/36 数据来源：各省市发改委，西南证券整理 36 20%2023 3 8%5%2 4 2.4+/2020 7 3 2022 9 3 2 2022 9 15%5%8%5%5%5%2023 3 1 2 1 4 10%20%37 数据来源：国家能源局，西南证券整理 37 2022 1.7%21 1.9%2.4+33%42%17%8%2022 2022%1203 1531 620 292 1.9%3.7%-6.7%-21.0%-25%-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%0500100015002000 2022 2021%38 数据来源：全国新能源消纳监测预警中心，国家能源局，西南证券整理 2021-2023 2021 5-2023 9%38 2023 100%2023 9/97.3%/98.2%-0.5/-0.6ppts 2.5 2021-2023 050010001500200025002 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2021 2022 2023 0500100015002 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2021 2022 2023 90%92%94%96%98%100%2021 5 2021 7 2021 9 2021 11 2022 1 2022 3 2022 5 2022 7 2022 9 2022 11 2023 1 2023 3 2023 5 2023 7 2023 9 IRR 30 IRR 0.05/W IRR 0.2%-0.3%IRR 1.45/W 1.60/W 39 数据来源：Wind，北极星太阳能光伏网，阳光巨匠光伏网等，西南证券整理&IRR/W 1.95 1.90 1.85 1.80 1.75 1.70 1.65 1.60 1.55 1.50 1.45 1.40 9.2%9.5%9.8%10.1%10.4%10.7%11.0%11.3%11.6%11.9%12.3%12.6%/Wh 2.2 5.6%5.9%6.2%6.4%6.7%6.9%7.2%7.5%7.8%8.0%8.3%8.6%2.1 5.8%6.1%6.3%6.6%6.8%7.1%7.4%7.6%7.9%8.2%8.5%8.8%2.0 5.9%6.2%6.5%6.7%7.0%7.3%7.5%7.8%8.1%8.4%8.6%8.9%1.9 6.1%6.4%6.6%6.9%7.2%7.4%7.7%8.0%8.3%8.5%8.8%9.1%1.8 6.3%6.5%6.8%7.1%7.3%7.6%7.9%8.1%8.4%8.7%9.0%9.3%1.7 6.4%6.7%6.9%7.2%7.5%7.8%8.0%8.3%8.6%8.9%9.2%9.4%1.6 6.6%6.8%7.1%7.4%7.6%7.9%8.2%8.5%8.8%9.0%9.3%9.6%/400 7.0%7.3%7.5%7.8%8.1%8.4%8.6%8.9%9.2%9.5%9.8%10.1%380 7.1%7.4%7.6%7.9%8.2%8.5%8.8%9.0%9.3%9.6%9.9%10.2%360 7.2%7.5%7.8%8.0%8.3%8.6%8.9%9.2%9.4%9.7%10.0%10.3%340 7.3%7.6%7.9%8.1%8.4%8.7%9.0%9.3%9.6%9.9%10.1%10.4%320 7.4%7.7%8.0%8.3%8.5%8.8%9.1%9.4%9.7%10.0%10.3%10.6%300 7.5%7.8%8.1%8.4%8.6%8.9%9.2%9.5%9.8%10.1%10.4%10.7%2.5 2022/5/4/5 2021 3/4/2 2023 11/4/5 24 14 40 数据来源：Wind，西南证券整理 2.5 2006-2025E/2006-2025E/01234567200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023E2024E2025E 0123456200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023E2024E2025E 41 数据来源：海关总署，国家电网，西南证券整理 41 5840 4000 1700 2.5%2022%-20%0%20%40%60%0100020003000400050006000,6%,4%,5%,4%,4%,3%,3%,71%42 2023 2024 2024 600011 2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E 246724.79 254926.51 263472.40 278943.05 20.59%3.32%3.35%5.87%-7387.12 13562.33 15583.77 17421.89 28.03%283.59%14.90%11.80%EPS-0.47 0.86 0.99 1.11 P/E-15.3 8.3 7.3 6.5 1 2 55GW 20-25 CAGR 39%3 2023-2025 135.6 155.8 174.2 PE 8.3 7.3 6.5 数据来源：Wind，西南证券 数据来源：Wind，西南证券整理 43-16%-6%3%13%22%31%22/12 23/2 23/4 23/6 23/8 23/10 23/12华能国际 沪深300 600027 2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E 107058.54 117527.41 125280.33 130167.23 2.52%9.78%6.60%3.90%99.81 6067.50 6633.89 7189.49 102.01%5978.99%9.33%8.38%EPS 0.01 0.59 0.65 0.70 P/E 523.6 8.6 7.9 7.3 1 23 45 2 3 31%400 2023-2025 60.7 66.3 71.9 PE 8.6 7.9 7.3 数据来源：Wind，西南证券 数据来源：Wind，西南证券整理 44-17%-9%-1%7%15%23%22/12 23/2 23/4 23/6 23/8 23/10 23/12华电国际 沪深300 600795 2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E 192680.64 202536.02 214099.56 226070.29 14.56%5.11%5.71%5.59%2824.66 7592.87 9258.26 10272.56 253.07%168.81%21.93%10.96%EPS 0.16 0.43 0.52 0.58 P/E 22.2 8.2 6.8 6.1 1 2 35GW 21-25 CAGR 55%3 2023-2025 75.9 92.6 102.7 PE 8.2 6.8 6.1 数据来源：Wind，西南证券 数据来源：Wind，西南证券整理 45-23%-17%-11%-5%1%6%22/12 23/2 23/4 23/6 23/8 23/10 23/12国电电力 沪深300 000543 2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E 24275.61 28233.06 29850.68 31204.32 15.42%16.30%5.73%4.53%425.14 1251.59 1522.39 1766.98 131.80%194.40%21.64%16.07%EPS 0.19 0.55 0.67 0.78 P/E 33.6 11.4 9.4 8.1 1 2 3 2023-2025 12.5 15.2 17.7 PE 11.4 9.4 8.1 数据来源：Wind，西南证券 数据来源：Wind，西南证券整理 46-16%-6%4%15%25%35%22/12 23/2 23/4 23/6 23/8 23/10 23/12皖能电力 沪深300 000537 2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E 3429.81 6979.33 11829.55 17718.71 78.88%103.49%69.49%49.78%632.70 1291.53 2217.75 3219.94 146.60%104.13%71.71%45.19%EPS 0.34 0.69 1.19 1.73 P/E 33.4 16.4 9.5 6.6 1 2 23H1 13.7GW 12.2GW+0.8GW+0.7GW 17.28GW 3 30GW 2023 10GW 2023-2025 12.9 22.2 32.2 PE 16.4 9.5 6.6 数据来源：Wind，西南证券 数据来源：Wind，西南证券整理 47-36%-28%-19%-11%-2%6%22/12 23/2 23/4 23/6 23/8 23/10 23/12广宇发展 沪深300 600900 2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E 52060.48 81216.36 86752.30 90639.39-6.44%56.00%6.82%4.48%21309.03 31234.00 35710.12 37209.36-18.89%46.58%14.33%4.20%EPS 0.87 1.28 1.46 1.52 P/E 25 17.3 15.1 14.5 1 71.8GW 1113 kwh 120 2 3 23Q3 38.0 2023-2025 312.3 357.1 372.1 PE 17.3 15.1 14.5 数据来源：Wind，西南证券 数据来源：Wind，西南证券整理 48-14%-4%7%17%27%37%22/12 23/2 23/4 23/6 23/8 23/10 23/12长江电力 沪深300 600674 2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E 1420.41 1542.61 1666.03 1951.75 12.43%8.60%8.00%17.15%3515.27 4270.33 4757.23 5268.99 13.86%21.48%11.40%10.76%EPS 0.79 0.96 1.07 1.18 P/E 17.6 14.5 13.0 11.7 1 2023Q1-Q3/10/38+16%/+32%2 22 222 21.2%2023-2025 42.7 47.6 52.7 PE 14.5 13.0 11.7 数据来源：Wind，西南证券 数据来源：Wind，西南证券整理 49-14%-8%-2%5%11%17%22/12 23/2 23/4 23/6 23/8 23/10 23/12川投能源 沪深300 605090+2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E 23953.64 26213.29 27064.20 28573.19 29.56%9.43%3.25%5.58%1089.93 1305.24 1632.28 1961.94 75.87%19.76%25.06%20.20%EPS 1.74 2.09 2.61 3.14 P/E 13.3 11.1 8.9 7.4 1 2 LNG LPG 3 2023-2025 13.1 16.3 19.6 PE 11.1 8.9 7.4 数据来源：Wind，西南证券 数据来源：Wind，西南证券整理 50-14%-5%5%14%24%33%22/12 23/2 23/4 23/6 23/8 23/10 23/12九丰能源 沪深300 601985 2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E 71285.60 77074.86 83128.21 91150.59 14.30%8.12%7.85%9.65%9009.83 10078.01 10933.16 12136.16 12.09%11.86%8.49%11.00%EPS 0.48 0.53 0.58 0.64 P/E 14.9 13.2 11.8 10.8 1 2 2025 26.1GW 3 CAGR42%2023-2025 100.8 109.3 121.4 PE 13.2 11.8 10.8 数据来源：Wind，西南证券 数据来源：Wind，西南证券整理 51-14%-7%-1%6%12%19%22/12 23/2 23/4 23/6 23/8 23/10 23/12中国核电 沪深300 数据来源：Wind（wind 一致预测截至12 月7日），西南证券 EPS PE PB 2022A 2023E 2024E 2022A 2023E 2024E LF 600011.SH 7.66-0.47 0.86 0.99-15.3 8.3 7.3 2.08 600027.SH 5.20 0.01 0.59 0.65 523.6 8.6 7.9 1.34 600795.SH 4.00 0.16 0.43 0.52 22.2 8.2 6.8 1.46 000543.SZ 6.72 0.19 0.55 0.67 33.6 11.4 9.4 1.08 000537.SZ 9.80 0.34 0.69 1.19 33.4 16.4 9.5 1.07 600900.SH 22.58 0.87 1.28 1.46 25 17.3 15.1 2.80 600674.SH 14.36 0.79 0.96 1.07 17.6 14.5 13.0 1.82 605090.SH 29.16 1.74 2.09 2.61 13.3 11.1 8.9 2.51 601985.SH 7.03 0.48 0.53 0.58 14.9 13.2 11.8 1.50 52 S1250522100001 13003109597 S1250523070005 18019200867 分 析 师 承诺 报告 署名 分析 师具
