20231212_中邮证券_锂行业深度报告：全球锂资源理论成本_49页.pdf
11 2023 12 12/2 2024 2024 5.5 13.6 10.9 10 2024 8-10/60/15/2024 8-10/XVCXyRqNnOpOoQoNmRoRpOaQ8Q9PnPrRtRpMiNmNsQjMmNtP8OrRwPvPoOpPwMsOvM3 3 4Greenbushes 369/5.4/LCE Q2 39.5+11%42.9+28%Unit COGS 304/+4%191/Unit COGS(+royalties)585/-15%369/FY23 149.1 148.8 FY24 140-150 Cash Cost 280-330/192/royalties 300/2.5 53733/2023 11 10 1=7.3 2 Greenbushes IGO 1 Greenbushes IGO 5PLS 386/6.7/LCE 2023Q2 16.3+10%17.6+22%FOB 628/CIF 976/23 62+64%60.8+68%4449/FOB 613/386/CIF 1091/687/FY24 413/66639/P680 10 FY24Q1 FY24Q2 P1000 FY25Q3 4 PLS PLS 3 PLS kdmt PLS 6Mt Marion 1225/11.3/LCE Mt Marion 2023 14.9 Q2 3.9 2%1200-1250/112600/MIN 5 MIN 2024 7Wodgina 950/9.8/LCE Wodgina 2023 14.3 Q2 3.4 26%925-975/98000/MIN 6 MIN 2024 7 2023 MIN MIN 8Kathleen Valley Liontown Resources 2006 Kathleen Valley 60 680 2021 1.56 Li2O 1.4%6850 Li2O 1.34%Liontown 8 Kathleen Valley 9Kathleen Valley 400/6.6/LCE Kathleen Valley 400/2024 65880/9 Kathleen Valley Liontown iFind 1010Core 756/8.67/LCE 23Q2Core 14685 5423 C1 Cost 902 A$/t FOB C1 cost plus royalties 1416 A$/t FOB 2024 8-9 9-10 C1 Cost 1165-1250 A$/t FOB 86670/12 Core Core 11 Core Core 11Mt Cattlin 909/9.6/LCE Mt Cattlin 23Q2(SC5.3)5.8+49%4.68+117%60%67%4297/-25%SC6 CIF 4800/909/95606/FY23 13.1 10.5 11.4-12.4 14 Mt Cattlin Akllem 13 Mt Cattlin Akllem 12 12 13AMG 434/4.6/LCE Mibra(AMG 100%)9/13/2023Q4 2023 6 434/57120/Mibra 16 Mibra Mibra 15 Mibra Mibra 14Sigma Grota do Cirilo Grota do Cirilo 27(3.7 LCE)2023 13 76.6(10.4 LCE)2024 100%18 Grota do Cirilo Sigma 17 Sigma Sigma 15Sigma 289/5.9/Grota do Cirilo C1 Cash Costs 289/523/()59398/20 Sigma Sigma 19 Sigma Sigma 16Cinovec Cinovec/100 Krusne hory/Erzgebirge 22 Cinovec EMH 21 Cinovec EMH 17Cinovec 5.58/LCE 1 Cinovec Krusne Hory 100 7.08 0.42%738 451 LCE Cinovec 2.9/2024 6727/LCE 7644/55801/24 Cinovec EMH 23 Cinovec EMH 18 Manono 371/6.4/LCE Manono PR13359 100%COMINIERE COMINIERE 371/SC 6 1 2662/64186/26 Manono AVZ 25 Manono AVZ 19 Arcadia 364/6.3/LCE 2021 10 Arcadia JORC 2012 7270 1.06%121ppm 77 190 8800 4230 1.19%121ppm 50.4 124 5126 Arcadia 364/62808/5 LCE 2022 6 Arcadia 2.75 1.5/23 29.7 28 Arcadia 27 Arcadia 20 Bikita 400 Bikita 6541.93 183.78(LCE)Bikita SQI6 Shaft 4031.83 Li2O 1.13%Li2O 45.62 112.69(LCE)Bikita 2510.10 Li2O 1.15%Li2O 28.78 71.09(LCE)2023 7 Bikita200/200/100%30 29 Bikita 21 20 5 668.3 123.1 253.4 291.8 Li2O 88,465 1.98%21.88 Li2O 5,191 0.24%90/20 2023 5 32 31 22 Goulamina 2024 Leo Lithium Goulamina Goulamina 50 100 35 Leo Lithium 15 Goulamina Leo Lithium 50%34 Goulamina Leo Lithium 33 Goulamina Leo Lithium 23 Goulamina 365/5.3/LCE C1 312/Goulamina 2024 365/63836/36 Goulamina Leo Lithium 35 Goulamina Leo Lithium 24 24 25SQM 2.2/2023Q2 20.52-21%-9%5.8-32%-23%EBITDA 8.77-34%-19%Q2 EPS 2.03 SQM 3000/LCE 21900/2023Q2 4.3+2%+34%3.4/-37%-33%2023 18-19 38 SQM SQM 37 SQM SQM 26Livent 1 2022 2023 Q1 2023 1 Livent 2021 1.5 2500 2023 Nemaska 32000 2025 2026 12 40 Livent Livent 39 Livent Livent 27Allkem Olaroz 4.3/Olaroz Q1 5059+23%+47%3430+18%3.81/-28%5882/+19%85%42939/FY23 1.67 1.32 5014/89%42 Allkem Allkem 41 Allkem Allkem 28Allkem Sal de Vida 2.45/Sal de Vida 1.5 2024 2021 Sal de Vida 3352/24470/44 Sal de Vida Allkem 43 Sal de Vida Allkem 29Eramet 2.55/2021 Centenario-Ratones 2.4 LCM 2022 2024Q2 2025 Eramet Centenario cash cost 3500/25550/46 Eramet Eramet 45 Eramet Eramet 30Sayona 8.3/Sayona Mining Limited(NAL)3 2024 NAL 8.5 11.5 North American Lithium C1 Cash Costs 691/740/()82874/48 Sayona Sayona 47 Sayona Sayona 31Piedmont Atlantic 2025 Piedmont Lithium(PLL)(TSLA)2023 2025 12.5 SC6 Atlantic 2025 50 Piedmont Piedmont 49 Piedmont Piedmont 323Q 2.4/Liex S.A.3.8 3Q 2 3Q 300 340kg 2/2023 3Q LCE 2952 23973/52 3Q 3Q 51 3Q 3Q 33 33 341 1 17 2 5 2022 10 5000/120/2024 10 2022 6%2069/2023 3 29 250/54:锂矿成本（万元）销量（吨）成 本（元/吨）融捷 11451 55347 2069 53 2022 6%352 55 362 2.6/1 8 6%2()2.8 2.2 3000KWh 6000/500/7.3 10000/2.66/57 Pro 2021 2022融捷股份 15.0%6.2%永兴材料 4.4%3.3%盛新锂能 7.3%2.5%天华新能 8.0%2.5%天齐锂业 29.0%2.7%赣锋锂业 9.4%4.7%中矿资源 15.2%6.5%平均 12.6%4.1%iFind 56 辅料 单耗 单位 单价 成本硫酸 2.8 吨 305 854纯碱 2 吨 3100 6200电 3000 KWh 0.5 1500动力煤 2.2 吨 700 1540折旧 6000人工 500期间费用 10000合计 26594373 Li+2022 5.5/17/6-7/4 20 8.65-0.27%3300 1000 1 4 0.4%12 15 0.4%0.6%8 10 0.6%8 13/58 2022锂矿成本（万元）销量（吨）成 本（元/吨）永兴材料 109140 19715 55359江特电机 213660 12526 170571384 80%1 2022 6 1.2 9600+2400 2023 4 LCE 2 2022 5 70.8 4/2 2 2024 3/60 59 2023H1 锂矿成本（万元）销量（吨）成 本（元/吨）盐湖股份 56922 15000 37948藏格矿业 20188 4865 4149539 39 401 2025 2200 2035 2030 700 1000 TrendForce 2 21 2022 1065 63.6%2022 1065 2025 2200 Marklines TrendForce 61 2020 2021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E323 623 1065 1300 1650 2200136.7 350 687 891 1128 142113.4%156.0%96.3%29.7%26.6%26.0%186 273 378 409 522 77983.8%46.5%38.5%8.2%27.6%49.2%电量(万度)6405 15450 34350 44550 56400 71050三元占比 64%48%45%50%55%55%三元电池(万度)4099 7416 15458 22275 31020 39078电量(万度)9320 13650 18900 20450 26100 38950三元占比 90%80%80%80%80%80%三元电池(万度)8388 10920 15120 16360 20880 31160全球新能源汽车销量(万辆)国内产量(万辆)yoy海外产量(万辆)yoy国内海外412 2025 530GWh InfoLink 2022 2022 142.7 GWh 2021 46.9 GWh 204.3%2025 530GWh LFP 2022-2025 62 GGII 2020 2021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E29 66 159 230 377 53080.0%80.0%90.0%90.0%80.0%80.0%0.14 0.14 0.14 0.14 0.14 0.140.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.112350 28108 76179 110196 160556 225716LFP占比三元含锂量（kg）LFP含锂量（kg）储能电池锂用量（吨）储能出货量(GWh)423 2023-2025 2023-2025 2023-2025 63（LCE万吨）2020 2021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E海外锂矿 20 27 35 44 63 82海外锂盐湖 13 15 22 29 40 50中国锂矿 1 1 2 3 6 6中国盐湖 4 7 10 12 15 17中国锂云母 3 5 7 16 20 23供应合计 41 56 76 104 144 178动力电池 15 27 46 52 67 903C电池 8 8 9 9 9 9储能电池 1 3 8 11 16 23传统工业 13 18 18 19 20 21需求合计 37 56 80 92 112 143缺口 5(0)(4)12 32 3543020,00040,00060,00080,000100,000120,000140,0001 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 55 58 61 64 67 70 73 76 79 82 85 88 91 94 97 100 103 106 109 112 115 118 121 124 127 130 133 136 139 1424 2024 8-10 2024 2024 8-10/64 2024/乐观：预 计2024 年新能 源 需求好转，产业 链备库 增 多至3个月，对 应增加10 万吨 碳 酸锂需求。中性：预 计2024 年新能 源 汽车需求 增长平 稳，产 业 链库存周 期1个月44 44 45 46 46THANK YOU SAC S1340522060001 SAC S1340122080037 47 2017 7 1 48 2002 9 50.6 17 100050 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