20231212_平安证券_保险行业2024年度策略报告：于变革中谋发展_20页.pdf
2024 2023 12 12-20231123-20231101 S1060520040001 BQC673 WANGWEIYI S1060520040002 LIBINGTING S1060122070023 WEIJIWEN NBV 2024 3.0%2024 NBV COR 2024 2024 COR 2.7%A 2024 2023 2024 NBV 2024 COR A 1 2 NBV 3 4 2/20.4 1.1 A.4 1.2 NBV.5 1.3 COR.6 1.4.7 NBV.8 2.1 2024.8 2.2.8 2.3 3.0%.13 COR.14 3.1 2024 COR.14 3.2 2024 COR.16.16.18 5.1.18 5.2.18 XVCXxOrMtQmNoQoNmRpQnM7NbPbRnPpPtRoNjMoPoMkPqRmP6MnMtQuOqNxPwMnRmP 3/20 1 2023 300 2023 11 30.4 2 2023 2023 11 30.5 3.5 4.6 5 NBV.6 6.6 7 COR.6 8.7 9 2023.7 10.7 11.7 12.8 13.8 14.9 15 NBV NBV.9 16 2023.10 17.11 18.11 19 2023.12 20.13 21.13 22 IRR.13 23 2024.14 24.15 25 COR.15 26.15 27.15 28.15 29 10.17 30 A.18 31.18 4/20 1.1 A NBV 2023()11 30()11.85%300 9.70%300 300 1 2023 1()2022 11 2023 NBV 2 2023 5-10()4()4 5-10 A()()4 11 724()8 NBV()9-10()3 2023 11()1 2023 300 2023 11 30 Wind 2023 3 11 30 29.72%13.84%2023 COR COR Wind 2017 40%2020 7%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%2023/1/32023/1/172023/1/312023/2/142023/2/282023/3/142023/3/282023/4/112023/4/252023/5/92023/5/232023/6/62023/6/202023/7/42023/7/182023/8/12023/8/152023/8/292023/9/122023/9/262023/10/102023/10/242023/11/72023/11/21 300 300()5/20 2 2023 2023 11 30 Wind 3Q23 0.76%QoQ+0.36pct 21Q2 3 Wind 3Q23 23Q1-Q3 3Q23 1.2 NBV NBV 2023 NBV NBV NBVM NBV NBVM 1 2023+44.8%+13.1%+9.5%+6.3%2 2023 NBV+40.9%+36.8%+18.0%+14.0%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%2023/1/32023/1/172023/1/312023/2/142023/2/282023/3/142023/3/282023/4/112023/4/252023/5/92023/5/232023/6/62023/6/202023/7/42023/7/182023/8/12023/8/152023/8/292023/9/122023/9/262023/10/102023/10/242023/11/72023/11/21-5.0%-4.0%-3.0%-2.0%-1.0%0.0%-1.5%-1.0%-0.5%0.0%0.5%1.0%1.5%2.0%1Q21 2Q21 3Q21 4Q21 1Q22 2Q22 3Q22 4Q22 1Q23 2Q23 3Q23 6/20 4 5 NBV Wind Wind 1 2021 2020 2023 2020=+=+2=+3 2023 4 23Q1 23Q1-Q3 NBV 1.3 COR 2023+11.8%+7.5%+1.8%COR 2023 7 9 2022 2021 2023 COR 2023 COR+1.7pct+1.6pct+1.0pct 6 7 COR Wind Wind 1 2021 2023 2 2023-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%-80%-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%93%94%95%96%97%98%99%100%101%7/20 1.4 4 2023 2023 11 30 300 1.93%9.70%13.84%2.67%0.17pct 2023 2023 2.8%2.4%2.3%2023 IFRS9 FVTPL FVTPL FVTPL FVOCI FVOCI IAS39 AFS IFRS9 FVTPL 2023-5.6%-15.5%-15.5%-24.4%-36.0%2023 8 9 2023 Wind Wind 10 11 0%1%2%3%4%5%6%7%8%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%23Q1 23H1 23Q1-Q3-2.0-1.00.01.02.03.0 PCT 23Q1 23H1 23Q1-Q3-2.0-1.00.01.02.0 PCT23Q1 23H1 23Q1-Q3 8/20 NBV 2.1 2024 2020 2022 9 2023 6 9 3 2023 9 2.04%2022 4 0.4pct Choice 1 2 3 5 2023 9 1.55%1.85%2.20%2.25%2022 9 0.1pct 0.3pct 0.4pct 0.4pct 2024 12 13 Wind Wind 2023 6 2.2 NBV NBVM 2023 2.2.1 2019 2019 21Q4 12%13%14%15%16%17%18%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%3:0%1%2%3%4%5%6%7%8%:6 7 9/20 1 2014 4Q21 1Q22 2 2018 2019+3 2017 4Q19 NBV NBV 2023 70.1%36.2%21.3%11.1%NBV NBV 28.3%18.8%11.2%10.9%14 15 NBV NBV Wind Wind 2023 10 20 2023 30%10 9 0%5%10%15%20%25%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%2019 2020 2021 2022 23H1 0%5%10%15%20%25%30%2019 2020 2021 2022 23H1 10/20 16 2023 7 31 2023 8 22 9 10 9 idataserch 2.2.2 NBV 2020 3 2023 6 2022 2021 2022 2023 NBV 2024 NBV 11/20 17 18 Wind Wind 1 10 2-3 1 1 NBV 2023 2024 2024 2-60%-50%-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%2020 2021 2022 23H10%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%2019 2020 2021 2022 23H1 12/20 19 2023 9 20/10 18 10 20 2023 11 idataserch 13/20 2.3 3.0%2023 8 1 3%2.5%2%6 7 3.5%6 7 2023 8 2023 NBV NBV 20 21 Wind Wind 8 3.0%2.5%1 3%3.5%2/160%140%120%40 3 10 85 3.0%IRR 3.5%IRR 0.40pct 0.42pct 0.50pct 3.5%3%NBVM 22 IRR 3.50%3.00%3.50%3.00%3.50%3.00%2.0)40 3 10 85 IRR 3.07%2.67%3.19%2.77%3.20%2.70%APP-10%-5%0%5%10%15%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%14/20 2024 NBV 2023 4Q23 2024 2023 2024 23 2024 3P8 3 8 10/15/20 2023 C 2%10 3.5%2%10 4.0%2%10 4.05%/2%10 4.3%/4.0%/3.8%5-7 8 40 3 10 8/IRR 1.1213%1.2533%/APP COR 3.1 2024 COR 2022 12 69.5%2021 2.4pct 2023 2022 2021 2023 6+1.0pct+0.6pct+1.1pct 68.7%6 9 69.0%15/20 24 25 COR Wind Wind 26 27 Wind Wind 6 2024 COR 28 6 65.5%66.0%66.5%67.0%67.5%68.0%68.5%69.0%69.5%70.0%2020 3 2020 6 2020 9 2020 12 2021 3 2021 6 2021 9 2021 12 2022 3 2022 6 2022 9 2022 12 2023 3 2023 6 2023 9 69.6%69.8%70.0%70.2%70.4%70.6%70.8%71.0%24.8%25.2%25.6%26.0%26.4%26.8%27.2%27.6%28.0%22H1 23H1 22H1 23H1 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%05,00010,00015,00020,00025,00030,00035,000-25%-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%020040060080010001200140016001800 YoY YoY 16/20 9 25%25%11 13 3.2 2024 COR COR 10 2023 GDP 724 8 GDP 4.9%4.5%17/20 GDP 2024 1 8 9 10 724 2 8 18 2 IPO 2.7%2024 10 21 29 10 Wind A 1 A 7 50%300 99%A 2 A 2023 2024 2.0%2.5%3.0%3.5%4.0%4.5%5.0%2019/1/2 2019/9/2 2020/5/2 2021/1/2 2021/9/2 2022/5/2 2023/1/2 2023/9/2(AAA)(AAA)18/20 30 A 31 1/300PE/10Y 1/300PE-10Y(%)2023-11-30 3.42 6.45 99.0%90.5%2014 98.1%89.2%2018 96.8%97.4%2.33 4.30 3.68 8.33 0.45-2.46 Wind Wind 5.1 3.0%NBV 2023 NBV 2023 2024 NBV 2.7%A COR 2024 5.2 1 2 NBV 3 12.621.628.211.09.725.6%20.3%0.9%14.7%36.0%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%051015202530 300 50PE_TTM 2023/11/30 19/20 2010-2019 4 COR :6 20%6 10%20%6 10%6 10%:6 5%6 5%6 5%2023 4008866338 5023 B 25 1333 26 4 1 B 25
