20231210_海通证券_公用事业行业2024年度策略：现货电辅助服务容量电费支撑电力盈利可期_20页.pdf-资源下载-

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20231210_海通证券_公用事业行业2024年度策略：现货电辅助服务容量电费支撑电力盈利可期_20页.pdf

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20231210_海通证券_公用事业行业2024年度策略：现货电辅助服务容量电费支撑电力盈利可期_20页.pdf

SAC S0850515120001 SAC S0850519100001 2023 12 10-2024 1-10 1.0.5 1.4 Wind 0.0%2.0%4.0%6.0%8.0%10.0%12.0%14.0%0100020003000400050006000700080009000100002 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 23YOY 2 XVFUyRnQsRoPtNnOtOqPpO8OaO9PsQoOtRsRlOmNoMfQoPoP9PnNuMuOqNuMuOmPpP Wind 1-9 15%1-9 45%1.1 1-9 4%1-9 8%0%1%2%3%4%-200020040060080010002 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2021 2022 2023 2023%0%2%4%6%8%10%-500501001502002502 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2021 2022 2023 2023%0%5%10%15%20%050010001500200025002 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2021 2022 2023 2023%0%10%20%30%40%50%050010001500200025002 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2021 2022 2023 2023%3 2023 1-10 0%1.2 2023 1 4 7 10 1-10 2022 1 4 7 10 1-10 2022 4.5%3.9%1.6%2.0%2.9%3.2%3.2%2.1%1.3%2.5%1.8%1.7%11.1%14.1%5.1%4.6%8.3%10.0%28.2%18.2%20.7%18.9%21.6%20.0%15.2%8.5%4.1%3.0%7.1%7.1%3.4%10.4%13.4%7.4%8.6%8.9%2.7%6.4%4.3%4.9%5.2%6.2%16.2%4.0%2.1%1.4%3.4%2.6%5.0%7.4%5.1%5.2%4.9%7.3%8.9%3.8%0.6%7.6%3.4%2.6%9.4%8.1%1.5%1.4%4.7%4.4%0.8%1.3%2.2%6.8%3.3%2.8%1.2%2.4%3.6%4.6%4.3%4.6%0.8%3.2%1.9%6.8%3.0%1.8%2.9%5.9%1.6%5.8%3.9%4.8%2.3%7.3%1.0%3.0%2.9%1.8%5.6%4.3%0.9%1.3%2.9%1.8%2.9%2.9%1.0%9.3%2.7%2.2%4.2%2.7%0.9%1.2%2.1%1.5%8.9%3.3%0.7%0.8%2.2%2.0%1.6%4.0%0.1%2.5%2.0%1.5%1.9%3.9%0.8%2.9%1.6%0.5%3.2%2.3%1.2%2.2%1.9%4.2%0.0%0.6%0.8%6.3%1.6%0.0%0.2%1.7%0.5%1.7%1.4%1.8%0.7%2.6%0.1%2.5%1.3%1.4%3.1%1.8%0.1%1.5%1.4%2.1%0.5%1.7%0.1%1.3%1.0%1.1%4.1%0.8%0.2%0.2%1.1%1.7%1.9%1.2%0.1%1.0%0.7%0.7%0.0%0.0%0.1%1.7%0.7%0.0%0.6%0.8%0.3%0.6%0.6%0.6%0.4%0.4%0.0%0.0%0.4%2.6%2.0%0.6%0.0%0.7%0.5%1.5%0.0%0.1%1.8%0.4%0.3%0.1%3.1%0.7%0.1%0.1%0.5%0.5%0.5%0.5%0.1%0.3%0.3%0.3%0.8%0.0%0.2%2.0%0.5%0.5%0.8%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.2%0.0%0.0%0.1%0.2%0.1%0.1%0.0%0.2%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.4%0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%0.0%0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.3%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.4%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%4 23-25 0.6-0.71.8-2&2020 107992 9802 33867 4989 28153 25343 6764 220058 9.4%2021 110962 10894 35455 5326 32848 30656 7997 237777 8.1%2022 112427 11485 36771 5553 36544 39261 9785 256405 7.9%2023E 116362 12634 37874 5677 42544 57261 11742 289130 12.8%2024E 120435 13897 38632 6216 49544 77261 12916 324944 12.4%2025E 125252 15287 39404 6457 56544 97261 14208 361665 11.3%2026E 126505 16509 40192 6888 63544 119261 14918 396521 9.6%2020 4340 2618 3977 7453 2073 1281 3756-2%2021 4586 2814 3753 7802 2232 1281 3817 6%2022 4516 2850 3616 7616 2221 1337 3369-2%2023E 4578 2880 3200 7750 2300 1287 3167 1%2024E 4406 2950 3500 7750 2207 1237 2987-4%2025E 4237 3000 3600 7750 2240 1187 2844-4%2026E 4213 3000 3600 7750 2242 1150 2724-1%1.3 5 +&2020 46296 2525 13218 3662 4665 2611 2237 75214 2021 50426 2871 13009 4075 6558 3270 3148 83357 2022 50770 2694 13057 4178 7624 4276 3773 86372 2023E 53273 3473 11943 4352 8750 5632 4131 91554 2024E 53058 3913 13389 4608 9773 7702 4604 97048 2025E 53073 4378 14046 4911 11489 9764 5210 102870 2026E 53301 4769 14327 5171 13069 11818 5559 108014 YOY(%)2020 2%9%4%5%15%17%-11%3.2%2021 9%14%-2%11%41%25%41%10.8%2022 1%-6%0%3%16%31%20%3.6%2023E 5%29%-9%4%15%32%9%6.0%2024E-0.4%13%12%6%12%37%11%6.0%2025E 0.0%12%5%7%18%27%13%6.0%2026E 0.4%9%2%5%14%21%7%5.0%1.3 6 1.2022.1 2025 2030 2.2.7 若/2.BP 8 Wind 2023 11 1 2 3 3.1 20-22 2020-22/%/%4348 0.37 4287 0.3682 100 0.023 6%2859 0.3358 165 0.058 17%4291 0.4161 100 0.023 6%3842 0.4012 165 0.043 11%4366 0.4207 165 0.038 9%3410 0.3779 165 0.048 13%4419 0.332 100 0.023 7%3430 0.3247 165 0.048 15%4440 0.391 100 0.023 6%3594 0.374 100 0.028 7%4448 0.3949 100 0.022 6%3663 0.4155 100 0.027 7%4456 0.4153 100 0.022 5%3699 0.3731 100 0.027 7%4531 0.3545 100 0.022 6%3713 0.3749 100 0.027 7%4619 0.3932 100 0.022 6%3875 0.3655 100 0.026 7%4619 0.2595 100 0.022 8%3996 0.3515 100 0.025 7%4737 0.3844 100 0.021 5%4073 0.4298 100 0.025 6%4867 0.2978 100 0.021 7%4094 0.3779 165 0.040 11%4972 0.2932 100 0.020 7%4203 0.3964 165 0.039 10%5049 0.4143 100 0.020 5%4252 0.453 100 0.024 5%5141 0.25 100 0.019 8%9 “”3.2/MWh/MWh-10001002003004005006007008009001/1 2/1 3/1 4/1 5/1 6/1 7/1 8/1 9/1 10/111/112/12022 2023 02004006008001000120014001/1 2/1 3/1 4/1 5/1 6/1 7/1 8/1 9/110/1 11/1 12/12022 202310 3.2 2019 6 2019 9 2020 4 2020 8 2018 12 2019 7 2019 9 2021 4 2018 9 2019 5 2019 5 2021 11 2019 6 2019 9 2019 9 2021 12 2018 12 2019 9 2019 9 2022 1 2019 6 2020 5 2019 9 2022 6 2019 5 2019 9 2019 9 2019 6 2019 9 2019 9 2021 12 2022 1 2022 7 2022 7 2022 6 2022 11 2022 11 2022 7 2022 11 2022 12 2022 6 2023 1 2023 1 2022 3 2023 3 2023 3 2022 7 2022 11 2023 3 2023 6 2022 6 2023 4 2022 11 2023 4 2023 12 2022 12 2023 5 2022 12 2023 5 2022 12 2023 1 2023 5 11 定义：根据国家能源局最新印发的电力辅助服务管理办法，电力辅助服务指由火电、水电、核电、风电、光伏发电、光热发电、抽水蓄能、自备电厂等发电侧并网主体，电化学、压缩空气、飞轮等新型储能，传统高载能工业负荷、工商业可中断负荷、电动汽车充电网络等能够响应电力调度指令的可调节负荷（含通过聚合商、虚拟电厂等形式聚合）提供的服务。分类：电力辅助服务主要分为有功平衡服务、无功平衡服务和事故应急及恢复服务三大类。有功平衡服务包括调频、调峰、备用、转动惯量、爬坡等电力辅助服务。23H1 27.1 20 2023 278 1.9%2019 1.5%3%204 73.4%74 26.6%167 60.0%54 19.4%45 16.2%254 91.4%3.3 VS 12 CBAM 2023.10.1-2025 2026 CBAM ETS CO2 N2O PFCs 5 31 CBAM CBAM/EU ETS/5 31 CBAM/2026 2034/5 31 CBAM CBAM CBAM CBAM CBAM/3.4 13 23Q3%23Q3/23Q3 63 570%0.05 1221 5 19 182%0.03 539 7 13 107%0.02 463 9 26-4%0.02 729 7 3 61%0.03 122 12 7 154%0.03 245 9 7 79%0.04 257 9 32 5307%0.07 649 5 7 97%0.04 296 11 5 76%0.02 202 11 4-18%0.07 190 12 1-59%93 17 7 339%155 5 3 118%0.06 79 7 0.04 9 4.2023/12/8 Wind 14 PE 25 ROE 9%2023 11 30()PE TTM PB(MRQ)ROE%2023H1 2022 2021 2020 2019 466 26 1.8 4.9 8.4 9.4 9.4 11.3(NEXTERA ENERGY)1181 16 2.5 11.6 10.9 9.7 7.9 10.6 10.1(DUKE ENERGY)699 64 1.5 1.2 5.2 8 2.9 8.3 5.1(SOUTHERN)766 25 2.2 5.2 12.1 8.6 11.3 18.2 11.1 417 19 1.6 3.8 9.9 11.6 10.9 9.9 9.2(EXELON)382 18 1.5 4.1 7.3 5.1 6.1 9.3 6.4(XCEL ENERGY)331 19 1.9 4.2 10.8 10.6 10.6 10.8 9.4(EVERSOURCE ENERGY)209 18 1.3 3.3 9.3 8.5 9 7.5 7.5(EDISON INTL)252 20 1.8 4.9 5.2 6.2 6.4 11.8 6.9(ENTERGY)213 14 1.6 5.4 8.9 9.9 13.3 13.2 10.1(FIRSTENERGY)212 42 2.0 5.1 4.3 16.1 15.2 13.2 10.8 26 1.8 4.9 8.4 9.4 9.4 11.3 8.7 4.Wind 15 2000 23/11/30 2010 23/11/30 4.Wind 16-50%50%150%250%350%450%550%650%750%850%950%2000-11-302001-11-302002-11-302003-11-302004-11-302005-11-302006-11-302007-11-302008-11-302009-11-302010-11-302011-11-302012-11-302013-11-302014-11-302015-11-302016-11-302017-11-302018-11-302019-11-302020-11-302021-11-302022-11-302023-11-30(DUKE ENERGY)(SOUTHERN)-70%0%70%140%210%280%350%(DUKE ENERGY)(SOUTHERN)+5.17 1 2 3 4 6.18 SAC S0850515120001 021-23154113 Email 021-23185741 Email SAC S0850519100001 021-23154398 Email Email 19 1.6 6 2.A 500 10%-10%10%-10%6 10%-10%10%-10%20

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