20240110_华安证券_减速器行业深度：机器人核心部件国产替代及应用拓宽空间广阔_42页.pdf
S00105220700032024 01 10 469103 2 RV 11%2023 1-11 38.76-2.8%2021 93.11 78.06%82.41 95.05%10.70 6.57%2021 82%35.5%2020 35.9%2021 41.1%RV 2020 61%55%2021 15%7.2%2.6%36 2030 182 0YCXxOsPmPqRqOnOnQpQpOaQdNbRpNpPsQsOeRqQqReRrQnN7NpOqNuOtOmMMYnRqQ 1 2 3 4 5 1.1 RV 4 Nabtesco RV RV RV A1-A3 RV A4-A6 RV 1 2 1.1 RV 5 Flexspline Circular Spline Wave Generator RV(rotate vector)RV RV RV RV 10 3 3 3 4 RV 5 1.2 6 3 000 h 7 000 h 6;7 S 1 70%100%S P P 20%30%30%30%1.3 7 RV 8 RV 1-6 4 RV(SCARA)2-3-(DELTA)3-1 3 RV 6-7-/-1 RV 9 1.4 RV RV 8 RV 1/3 1/2 31-171 85%-92%3C 30kg RV 1000-5000/5000-8000/200-2000/10 1 2 3 4 5 2.1 10 25%15%11%RV RV A1-A3 RV A4-A6 25%15%11%10%9%5%25%11 32%22%12%34%12 13 2.2 2025 11 14 2023 9 2023-2024 2023 8(2023 2035)2023 6 2022 7 2022 1 2021 12 2021 11 2021 3 2035 2020 7 2023 2.3 12 Ifind 2022 44.3 21%2023 1-11 38.76-2.8%GGII 2021 93.11 78.06%82.41 95.05%10.70 6.57%15 2015-2023/0111 16 2017-2022-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%0204060801001202017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022E GGII-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%140%050000100000150000200000250000300000350000400000450000500000 2.3 13 ReportLinker ReportLinker 2020 1331 2026 1766 4.9%2022 1321 2022-2027 2022 1321 5.01%2023 13870%1%2%3%4%5%6%020040060080010001200140016002018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023E 18 2018-2023 02004006008001000120014001600180020002020 2026E 17 CAGR=4.9%2.4 14 20 60 RV 50,000 RV ZKRV-E RV-E/N m/(r/min)/%/h HarmonicDriveCSG 50160 71236 20 6585 0.52 13 3 60 50000 LCS 100 7.4446 20-40 20/10 900015000LCD 100 5.1313 20-40 20 900010000LHS 100 7.4446 20-40 20/10 900015000LHD 100 5.1175 20-40 20 900010000RV Nabtesco RV-E 31192.4231 5 8595 23 1.5 60-412 15 8595 23 1.5 60-353 25 8595 23 1.5 60-ZKRV-E 25192.43 294410 1550 8085 5090 11.5-19 2.5 15 3C 2021 23 2022 29 2025 49 2022-2025 CAGR 19.1%2021 82%7%11%20 2017-2025-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%0102030405060%21 2021 82%7%11%2.5 2025 30 2021 12.1 2022 15.9 2025 30 2022-2025 CAGR 23.7%2020 35.9%2021 41.1%2020-2021 46%42.9%30 2020-2021 35.9%41.1%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%051015202530352017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E%22 2017-2025 37.0%35.5%9.0%7.4%21.0%24.7%6.1%7.7%4.7%4.2%4.1%4.5%18.1%16.0%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2020 2021 23 2020-2021 16 2.5 RV 2025 100 17 QYresearch RV 2020 8.57 RV QYResearch 2027 15.4 2021-2027 CAGR 7.74%RV 2020 83%SPINEA 61.41%SPINEA 17.49%4.12%-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%024681012141618%61.41%17.49%4.12%16.98%SPINEA QYresearch 24 2016-2027 RV 25 2020 RV 2.5 RV 2025 100 18 RV 2014-2021 CAGR 21.75%2021 RV 42.9 50.53%2025 RV 60 RV 2021 RV 51.8%15.1%RV 2021 2020 3pct 2.3pct 5.8pct 1pct 26 2014-2021 RV 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%2020 2021 27 2020-2021 RV-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%051015202530354045502014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2.5 19 QYResearch 2022 12.03 2018 2023 CAGR 6.78%2023 12.55 QYResearch 35.52%0%5%10%15%20%25%024681012142018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023E QYResearch 28 2018-2023 29 2022 QYResearch 12.18%11.73%11.61%10.23%6.99%47.26%2.5 20 20 60 20 70 NGW 20 80 2018 2022 2022 5 2023 5.2 2018-2023 11.93%2022 20.4%11.7%9.4%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%01234562018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023E QYResearch 30 2018-202320.40%11.70%9.40%7.10%5.30%46.10%QYResearch 31 2022 1 2 3 4 5 22 Atlas Atlas Atlas.Atlas Atlas 32 Atlas 33 Atlas 3.1 23 CyberOne AI 21 0.5 CyberOne 85 6 45 OLED CyberOne 2023 11 2 3 34 CyberOne 35 CyberOne 3.1 24 2023 11 17 KaihongOS 17 346mm*224mm*118mm 1.73Kg+PC/ABS STM32 RK3568 Aelos C/C+Js ArkTS 2023 11 17 K1 S1 D1 178cm 85kg 12 40 2-3 36 37 3.1 3.2 36 21 目前市场上主流的人形机器人 大多采用谐波减速器和行星减 速器：特斯拉Optimus 上配有3种共14 个旋转执行器，旋转执行器采用谐波减速器。特斯拉旋转执行器由角接触轴承、谐波减速器、交叉滚子轴承、编码器、无框电机、力矩传感器构成。其中力矩传感器、谐波减速器、无框电机和编码器为旋转执行器重要零部件。优必选WalkerX 机器人的 伺服 驱动器迭代多代，配置包括高密度无框力矩电机、双位置编码器、谐波减速器。追觅科技通用人形机器人的减速器的设计采用了 行星及其衍生的行星传动类型，其中，负 责传递载荷的传动件采用了具有优秀淬透性的高强度铬钢，结构部分采用了铝合金和镁合金。达闼Cloud Ginger 是基于智能柔性执行器构建的云端智能服务机器人，其智能柔性执行器 SCA2.0 采用优化行星减速器。智元远征A1 机器人的专用关节PowerFlow 关节电机采用了无刷电机方案，搭配了高力矩透明度的 行星减速器。Optimus CyberOne-A1 Walker X Cloud Ginger SCA2.0 38 A1 AIDAY 39 optimus 40 A1 41 AI day A1 26 以 特 斯 拉为 例，特 斯拉人 形机器 人Optimus 整体躯 干共有28 个关 节执行 器，其 中旋转 执行器（谐波 减速器）14 个，线性 执行器14 个。Optimus 3 14 20Nm 110Nm 180Nm 6 2 2 4 Optimus 28 Pitch X Yaw Z Roll Y AI Tesla AI Day 2022 42 28 Tesla AI Day 2022 43 Optimus 3 3.2 273.3 2030 182 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E 2028E 2029E 2030E 0.10 0.22 0.46 1.00 2.15 4.64 10.00 21.54 46.42 100.00 0.10 0.20 0.41 0.84 1.72 3.49 7.11 14.48 29.48 60.00 0.10 0.19 0.38 0.74 1.43 2.79 5.43 10.56 20.56 40.00 RV/4432 4211 4000 3800 3610 3430 3258 3095 2940 2793/2216 2105 2000 1900 1805 1715 1629 1548 1470 1397/1108 1053 1000 950 903 857 815 774 735 698 RV 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15RV 0.22 0.45 0.93 1.90 3.89 7.96 16.29 33.34 68.24 139.67 0.33 0.68 1.39 2.85 5.83 11.94 24.44 50.01 102.36 209.50 0.17 0.34 0.70 1.43 2.92 5.97 12.22 25.01 51.18 104.75 RV 0.22 0.43 0.83 1.60 3.10 5.99 11.59 22.41 43.34 83.80 0.33 0.64 1.24 2.40 4.65 8.99 17.38 33.61 65.00 125.70 0.17 0.32 0.62 1.20 2.32 4.49 8.69 16.81 32.50 62.85 RV 0.22 0.41 0.76 1.40 2.59 4.78 8.84 16.35 30.22 55.87 0.33 0.61 1.14 2.10 3.88 7.18 13.27 24.52 45.33 83.80 0.17 0.31 0.57 1.05 1.94 3.59 6.63 12.26 22.67 41.90 RV 5000-8000 1000-5000 200-2000 2023 RV/4000/2000/1000 5%Optimus 14 15 5 RV 15/2030 100/60/40/2030 454/272/182 44 1 2 3 4 5 4.1 RV Q1-Q3 2023 Q1-Q3 58.72 2017-2022 20.98%2023 H1 6.14 47.24%2022 2017 2019 2021 2023Q1-Q3 21.37%10.45%2017-2023Q3 13.03%5.12%29 45 46 47 48 iFinD iFinD iFinD iFinD 0%20%40%60%02000004000006000008000002017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023Q1-Q3(-100%0%100%200%300%400%0200004000060000800002017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023Q1-Q3-100%0%100%200%300%2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023Q1-Q3 0%10%20%2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023Q1-Q3 4.1 RV RV 2021 RV 15.1%2022 4.57 2023 H1 3.16 66.35%SHPR-C SHPR-E 40 2021 6-1000KG 30 50 RV 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%050001000015000200002500030000350004000045000500002017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023H1 49 4.2 2017-2022 12.50%2022 8.98 5.81%2023Q1-Q3 8.22 22.86%2017-2022 2.15%2022 6634.18 2023Q1-Q3 5727.88 34.47%2023 Q1-Q3 22.20%2022 1.9 pct 6.97%2017 17.19%2023Q1-Q3 8.59%31 51 52 53 54 iFinD iFinD iFinD iFinD-100102030400500001000001500002017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023Q1-Q3 yoy(%)-40-200204002000400060008000100002017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023Q1-Q3 yoy(%)051015202017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023Q1-Q3%0102030402017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023Q1-Q3(%)(%)4.2 RV+RV+2023 RV 2023 RV 17,500.00 11,500.00 32 1 19386.6 9886.62 3000 30003 4000 40004 RV 11500 26386.6 26386.6 35.5 0.5 RV 2.154 55 -50050100150020004000600080002018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023Q1-Q3 yoy(%)-40-20020406002000040000600002018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023Q1-Q3 yoy(%)4.3 IPO 2017-2022 10.71%2022 4.29 24.55%2023Q1-Q3 3.17 9.56%1.17 7.61%39.28%2017-2022 11.05%2022 4489.9 2023 Q1-Q3 19.81%9.35%2018 10.25%2023Q1-Q3 5.16%33 56 57 58 59 iFinD iFinD iFinD iFinD(5)0510152018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023Q1-Q3%0510152025302018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023Q1-Q3(%)(%)4.3 IPO 2022 12 15 205 3.5 34 14,590.78 14,000.00 11,177.33 11,000.00 6,266.64 6,000.00 7,000.00 7,000.00 39,034.75 38,000.00 60 IPO 4.4 2023 Q1-Q3 28.29 2017-2022 6.45%2023 0.98 56.28%18%2023 18.06%2020 2023Q1-Q3 3.47%2017-2023 Q3 18.82%11.28%35 61 62 63 64 iFinD iFinD iFinD iFinD-40.00%-20.00%0.00%20.00%40.00%02000004000006000002017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023Q1-Q3(-1000.00%-500.00%0.00%500.00%-40000-20000020000400002017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023Q1-Q3-20.00%-10.00%0.00%10.00%20.00%30.00%2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023Q1-Q3 0.00%10.00%20.00%2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023Q1-Q3 4.4 863 30%20-25%6-9 2023 30%3 N 2 4 2022 5 23 130 RV RV 36 65 RV 5Kg-800Kg RV 2021 RV 3 20-25%69 2023 30%2017 2 2020 6 6 2023 5 6-9 66 67 4.5 2017-2022 20.5%2022 4.46 0.54%3C 2023Q1-Q3 2.54 42.50%2017-2022 26.8%2022 1.56 2023 Q1-Q3 41.73%2022 6.96 pct 29.08%2017 7.51%2023Q1-Q3-2.24%9.75pct 37 68 69 70 71 iFinD iFinD iFinD iFinD-50050100150010000200003000040000500002017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023Q1-Q3(yoy(%)-100-50050100150050001000015000200002017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023Q1-Q3 yoy(%)(15)(10)(5)0510152017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023Q1-Q3销售费用（%）管理费用（%）财务费用（%）三费加总（%）01020304050602017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023Q1-Q3净利率(%)毛利率(%)4.5 P ISO9001 ISO14001 2023 3 14 20.27 100 20 100 20 20%60%100%38 2020 50 63105.07 48108.442023 203036.26 202653.38 72 4.6 39 23E 24E 25E PE 23E PE 24E PE 25E 002472.SZ 207.85 24.37 0.96 1.24 1.57 25.47 19.67 15.48 688017.SH 228.82 135.66 0.69 1.02 1.46 196.49 133.21 92.74 301368.SZ 51.43 42.82 0.64 0.84 1.04 66.79 50.92 41.14 002896.SZ 52.23 34.55 0.58 0.71 0.94 59.81 48.36 36.61 000837.SZ 97.86 9.69 0.25 0.35 0.45 38.91 27.58 21.60 Wind 2024 1 9 PE wind 73 1 2 3 4 5 1.2.3.4.5.41 42 6 A 300 500 6 5%;6-5%5%;6 5%;6-12 15%6-12 5%15%6-12-5%5%6-12 5%6-12 15%
