2009 1210 2023 12 11 2024 2023 24 1 wind 32x 24 35x 1x PEG 23x 27x+22x 2 22 4.3%59.7%22 4.5%77.8%22 3.4%44.9%37.5%22 7.9%123.8%3 ADR ASP 2023 ADR 20 23 ASP 24/B2C TEMU/23 PEG G 010-66500993 S0360517040002%()111 0.01()8,168.86 0.94()7,218.86 1.07%1M 6M 12M 0.6%-5.4%-12.6%6.4%5.6%1.5%2023-11-17 2023 10 2023-11-15 2023 2023-11-03-15%-8%-1%6%22/12 23/02 23/05 23/07 23/09 23/122022-12-122023-12-08 300 2024 2009 1210 2 2023.5 2024/.7.8.8 1.8 2.10 3 24 PE 20.11.12.13.14.14.17“”“”.17 24.20.22:/.23.24.24 1.24 2.25.26.27 XVEVzQqNnOnMsMsRsPoRnMaQ9RaQoMqQoMsRjMoPpNlOrQsPaQoOvNxNqMpMwMtRsQ 2024 2009 1210 3 1.5 2 300.6 3.6 4.6 5.6 6.6 7.6 8.7 9 TTM.7 10.7 11.7 12 22.8 13 TTM.8 14 RevPAR.9 15 23Q3.9 16 RevPAR.9 17 RevPAR 2019.9 18.10 19 2019 pct.10 20 ADR.10 21 ADR 2019.10 22.11 23.11 24 20172023E.11 25 20172023E.11 26 2023.12 27 2024 PE.12 28 2019.13 29 2019.13 30 2023 19.13 31 GDP.14 32.14 2024 2009 1210 4 33&%.15 34&19%.15 35.16 36.16 37.17 38/.17 39.18 40.18 41 GMV.18 42 GMV.18 43 MAU.18 44.18 45.20 46.20 47.20 48 2019.20 49/.21 50.21 51%.21 52.21 53 PE LTM.22 54.22 55 2023.23 56.23 57 2023.26 58 2023%.26 2024 2009 1210 5 2023 12 1 7.0%10.8%17.5%23/27/30 1 Wind 23 12 1 1 12 1+19.4%+9.2%-2.1%-16.7%-34.1%-42.6%-31.0%-28.2%-32.8%-12.7%+7.1%23Q3 RevPAR 19Q3 29%13%17%19Q3-1.8-6.8-8.4pct 19 2 12 1+1.6%-0.4%-4.8%-3.4%-59.0%-59.0%-31.4%+52.7%+16.1%-3.7%+10.2%+84.8%+51.6%2022 36%21 V AT Amazon 20+AI+3 12 1-12.7%-17.6%-20.3%-40.2%-52.6%-48.4%-47.4%2024 2009 1210 6 2 300 3 Wind Wind 23 12 1 4 5 Wind Wind 6 7 Wind Wind 2024 2009 1210 7 2024/=*ASP 22 956-0.6 23 24+ASP 24 3 1 wind 32x 24 35x 1x PEG 23x 27x+22x 8 9 TTM Wind 23 Wind 2 2022 51.8%22 4.3%59.7%21.4%77.4%22 4.5%77.8%5.6%43.2%22 3.4%44.9%7.4%37.5%22 7.9%123.8%7.2%10 11 Wind Wind 2024 2009 1210 8 12 22 13 TTM Wind Wind 3 1 Q3 RevPAR 2019 Q3 19-23Q3 RevPAR 19Q3 11.7%17.8%29.3%13%17%19Q3 11.0%11.2%32.2%23.3%29.6%19Q3+0.5+5.1-1.8-6.8-8.4pct 19 RevPAR Q3 2019 RevPAR STR 10 RevPAR 2019 7%11 2024 2009 1210 9 14 RevPAR 15 23Q3 STR 16 RevPAR 17 RevPAR 2019 2024 2009 1210 10 18 19 2019 pct 20 ADR 21 ADR 2019 2 23 9 10929 6242 9028 1112 19 51.4%40.3%60.7%164.8%23 898 863 1181 23 9 8.2%13.8%13.1%2022 23 189 23 9 17.0%2024 2009 1210 11 22 23 3 24 PE 20 RevPAR 2019 2023 20.5%16.4%9.0%11.7%2019 4.7 12.2 1.7 0.9pct 24 20172023E 25 20172023E wind wind wind wind EPS 1-3 40%4 8 EPS 10 RevPAR EPS 12 4 2024 20 PE 20.0 x 18.9x 19.4x 15.9x 2018 2024 2009 1210 12 ADR 2024 Blended RevPAR-S 26 2023 27 2024 PE wind 2023 1 3 wind 2023 1 3&2019+19%+13%+4%2019 2022+19 85%A 42%40%21%15%10 2023 400 2019 350+Q3 2019 2024 2009 1210 13 28 2019 29 2019 30 2023 19 wind 508.4 29.1%52.1 12.5%51.9 13.3%23Q3 149.8 27.9%13.4 94.2%13.4 103.9%23Q3 34.5%/+9.8pct 9.0%/+3.1pct 9 10 11%26%643%29%59%85%44%45%51%35%33%42%-6%12%40%16%16%21%15%0%15%23%0%4%12%-15%-2%-23%-41%-34%-27%-29%-38%13%7%-39%-29%-25%-62%-60%-37%-76%-78%-75%-88%1%-50%-206%-76%-83%-270%2024 2009 1210 14 1 2 3 4/Place&Search 10 BOSS BOSS 23Q3 36.3%31 GDP 32 SIA wind wind 1-10 19 1-10 19 13%19 15%-60%-50%-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%19961997199819992000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021Temporary Help yoy Place&Search yoy GDP 同比增速 2024 2009 1210 15/2023 Q1-Q3 SSSG 8%/15%/4%KFC SSSG 8%/15%/4%Q3 4%9%5%19.9 OK 15.9 2 2%12%9%Q3 19 90%9 10 33&%34&19%wind wind 24/23 ASP ASP/2020-2022 879/863/775-12.01%/-1.82%/-10.2%2023 3 788 2022 13 1-7 243.7 25.7%/2019-2023H1 75/79/80/77/75 105/110/105/105/103 10.6018.4012.703.10 2.504.605.507.6026.3043.8035.1016.10 15.8012.4013.8017.1001020304050社会消费品零售总额:当月同比社会消费品零售总额:餐饮业:当月同比19.32%14.14%14.71%17.93%11.15%11.91%15.45%13.72%9.26%14.35%12.08%17.39%16.93%9.20%13.70%9.89%0%5%10%15%20%25%社零当月值同比19 年 社零餐饮当月值同比19年 2024 2009 1210 16 35 36/LBS/22 22 2022 5/0204060801001201401602019 2020 2021 2022 2023H1太二 海底捞 呷哺呷哺 凑凑 九毛九4.943.53.13.52.62.3 2.322.42.92.5 2.51.92.14.83.83.42.63.12.31.71.91.61.70123456海底捞 呷哺呷哺 凑凑 太二 九毛九 2024 2009 1210 17 37 38/ifind ifind/23H1 23H1+8.8%-5.1pct 13.5%+4.3pct 23H1 672 341 331&2023 1-10 30%/33.8%0.93pct/1.05pct 23 1-3Q 97 19 132 cagr-7%23 1-3Q 131 19 166 cagr-6%300350400450500550百胜中国 9987.HK051015202530354045九毛九 9922.HK 海底捞 6862.HK 奈雪的茶 2150.HK海伦司 9869.HK 同庆楼 605108.SH 广州酒家 603043.SH 2024 2009 1210 18 39 40 wind 2023 1-10 GMV 9.6%-0.1%/+5.8%/+19.3%/+70.7%/32.3%41 GMV 42 GMV 43 MAU 44 29.9933.8205101520253035402021-102021-112021-122022-012022-022022-032022-042022-052022-062022-072022-082022-092022-102022-112022-122023-012023-022023-032023-042023-052023-062023-072023-082023-092023-10 040801201602002019-012019-032019-052019-072019-092019-112020-012020-032020-052020-072020-092020-112021-012021-032021-052021-072021-092021-112022-012022-032022-052022-072022-092022-112023-012023-032023-052023-072023-09/-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%yoy-40%10%60%110%160%(+yoy0200004000060000800001000001200002018-102019-012019-042019-072019-102020-012020-042020-072020-102021-012021-042021-072021-102022-012022-042022-072022-102023-012023-042023-072023-10 0501001502002502018-10-012019-01-012019-04-012019-07-012019-10-012020-01-012020-04-012020-07-012020-10-012021-01-012021-04-012021-07-012021-10-012022-01-012022-04-012022-07-012022-10-012023-01-012023-04-012023-07-012023-10-01 2024 2009 1210 19 23 6.2 3Q 70.6%+1.3pct+10.1pct temu 61%-3.2pct/31.6%8.0pct/1.96pct 4.14%-3.46pct/-1.09pct 1.1%-1.45pct/-0.04pct 24.2%-0.13pct 1 GMV take rate 23Q3 396.9 39%23 Q3 GMV yoy+22%5 12%GMV GMV 2 TEMU 23 Q3 291.5 315%42%22Q3 20%TEMU 40 CMR 1688 CMR LatePost 1688 11 FY24Q2 CMR 3%6%18%1+6+N 1688 1688 23CY3Q AIDC 53%AIDC 28%73%190 Choice Lazada 2024 2009 1210 20 45 46 24 B2C 22 41.9 yoy+8.1%2.1 yoy+7.1%23 20 yoy+1.9%1.1 16%8210 19.9%22 3 Temu/Temu 23 Temu GMV 160-170 22 Choice Lazada Shopee 47 48 2019 wind wind wind 12 19+4%/19+7%/-1%/0%/-6%23 Q1-Q2 24 1 23-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%CMR yoy yoy-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%yoy yoy0.80 1.12 1.39 1.53 0.82 0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%0.00.20.40.60.81.01.21.41.61.82019 2020 2021 2022 2023H1 yoy yoy-100%0%100%200%300%400%500%2020/1/3 2021/1/3 2022/1/3 2023/1/3:2024 2009 1210 21/3/6 19+47%/+15%/+9%21 22 22/23 2 19 23 2-3 3 49/50 Bloomberg wind 23Q1-23Q3 23 1-3 7.6%23 7.5%9.6%Temu Shein 51%52 wind Adobe sku 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%存货较高存货去化明显0%1%2%3%4%5%6%7%8%9%22Q1 22Q2 22Q3 22Q4 23Q1 23Q2 23Q3 7.80 3.50(20)(10)01020304050602019-082019-102019-122020-022020-042020-062020-082020-102020-122021-022021-042021-062021-082021-102021-122022-022022-042022-062022-082022-102022-122023-022023-042023-062023-082023-10:-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%01020304050607080901001101201301402018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023Black Friday Cyber Monday yoy yoy 2024 2009 1210 22 53 PE LTM wind LTM PE 24 Temu UE 54 2023 23 23 1-3Q 835 7.3%22 10.6%23 1-3Q 16%222 051015202530354045 SKU 25%APP+SheIn SKU 2000-3000 5-6%FBA SKU+Temu+1 2 3 SKU30-80+3C+2024 2009 1210 23 55 2023 56 wind wind 1 2/:/CAPEX/36%22 64.5 33.37%170.29%22 7.85%23 76.41 0.9%4.07 14.0%2023Q3 26.38 1.9%1.50 11.94%23Q3 0.71pct 5.70%0.01pct 3.99%170%115%/50.14%340.95%2020/2021/2022 12.77%/14.57%/2.88%23 147.78 1.86%11.28 36.94%Q3 46.23 0.36%2.22 9.78%0.75 47%1.47 32%12001300140015001600170018001900200021002200300320340360380400420440460480500:Au9999:/():COMEX/-100%-80%-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%300 2024 2009 1210 24 2023Q3 47.88+4.46%Q3 0.24+71.55%1900 820%15/2013 MINISO 2 2015 1000+MINISO TOP TOY MINISO TOP TOY 8 FY2019 93.95 FY2023 114.73 CAGR 5%FY2019 8.41 FY2023 18.45 CAGR 22%+19-23 63/78/78/69/68 FY2024Q1 GMV 25%80%160%1 2023 15.89 19.83%8447 58.92%1 7.63 28.81%52.52%+2.85pct 134.82 117.25%2 3.08 23.08%46.29%+6.37pct 785.86 707.72%3 1.35 28.71%53.51%+6.12pct 679.61 2024 2009 1210 25 369.22%4 2.52 18.17%56.18%+4.43pct 2378.84 107.78%5 1.65 9.93%56.38%+6.91pct 1371 357.17%23H1 10.37+41.2%21H1+23.9%46.1%22H1+3.3pct 21H1 0.4pct 1.12+6.4 21H1+15.4%1.31+159.1%21H1+21.5%12.7%2021 23H1 2.22+72.8%21H1-12.73%23 6 7.39 22H1+21.3%54.3%23H1 79.6%20.3%57.1 889 23H1 22H1 2.2pct 23.4%+38.0%5.9pct 12611 2 2023 2.77 140.25%92.73%+5.08pct III 105.4%5.17 173.7%1.92 6 87 1,500 2023 21.7 45.7%14.2 43.7%14.0 45.4%9.8%+0.8pct 5.2%+1.0pct 7.35%-0.38pct 8.74+35.90%139%5.66 95.10%97.38%1.03pct 1.33pct 408 31 28.57%2.5ml 冭 2024 2009 1210 26 11 Jeisys Density LinearZ 11 2C 2023 PEG G 57 2023 58 2023%wind wind 2023 52.49(+32.47%)50.6%7.46 7.26(+52.18%)Q3 9 C A Q3 3.0 7 2.0 Q3+16%+36%2023H1+63%16.06 52.5%6.67 6.76+46.1%84.1%85.1%41.5%(30)(20)(10)010203040502019-022019-042019-062019-082019-102019-122020-022020-042020-062020-082020-102020-122021-022021-042021-062021-082021-102021-122022-022022-042022-062022-082022-102022-122023-022023-042023-062023-082023-10:%:%38.1264.344.7729.64-2.30(20)020406080100 2020 2021 2022 2023H1 2024 2009 1210 27 44.4%74.5%24.8%0.7%12.28 101%76.4%3.21+6.4%20.0%2011 618 top1 618 3500 gmv 700%/170 2023H1 112%10.83 10.2%5.23 128.4%9.77+18.6%0.69 50.8%1400 2200 500 4000 cs/ka 2024 2009 1210 28 2016 2017 2017 2017 2020 2021 2021 2022 2024 2009 1210 29 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-66500808 010-66500821 010-63214682 0755-82828570 0755-83715428 0755-82756804 0755-82871425 0755-82871425 021-20572536 021-20572555 021-20572257-2552 021-20572506 021-20572585 021-20572509 021-20572548 021-20572573 0755-82756805 021-20572559 021-20572559 0755-82756805 021-20572559 021-25072549 2024 2009 1210 30 A 300 500/6 20%6 10%20%6-10%10%6 10%20%3-6 5%3-6-5%5%3-6 5%26 C 3A 1061 A 19 33 12 100033 518034 200120 010-66500801 0755-82027731 021-20572500 010-66500900 0755-82828562 021-20572522