Table_Industry/2023 12 10 有色金属 如 何 看 待碳 酸 锂市 场 的“两个 背 离”？Table_Main Table_Title S0740517080003 Email S0740522090002 Email Email Table_Profit 131()25034.29()23233.54-Table_Report Table_Summary 1.12 8 100 2401 12.67 2000 3.11 LC2401 01 18.80%10.80/SMM 12 LFP 20%5.2%24 3 1 LC2401 8.57/90 2019 2019 8 6-7/Bald Hill 2020 7 10 3 2 PB 12 8 PB 1.85X 4 2.11 84.1 39.8%8.9%11 1.99+8%-17%3.2 3+4.18.80%6.63%LC2401 1.33%6.04%2.39%LME 4.67%SHFE 5.93%5.2023 10 13.62GW 141.49%2 11 84.1 39.8%8.9%0500001000001500002000002500001 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2020 2021 2022 2023-2-3 10 77.3GWh 23.2%0.1%10 39.2GWh 28.3%7.6%4 2023 11 22.04-5.1%5.41-1.21%-5.98%16.63-6.26%+26.14%6.2.39%3.66%7.6.85/7.93/0.02%8.10 25298.93 124.2%248.35%SHFE 20.75/5.93%SHFE+LME 351 12662 9.WUEVyRqNmPpOtNpMqNoRoPaQcMbRtRnNtRsRlOnMnPfQpOrQaQpPyQvPtOsPwMpPnN-3-1.-4-1.1.-4-1.2.-5-1.3.-6-2.-7-2.1 10.-7-2.2.-8-2.3.-9-2.4.-10-3.-11-4.-16-5.-17-6.-18-7.-19-8.-20-9.-22-4-1.1.1:12 8 100 2401 12.67 2000 3.11 LC2401 01 18.80%10.80/SMM 12 LFP 20%5.2%24 3 1 2 12 8 仓库/分库 12 月 7 日仓单量 12 月 8 日仓单量 增减 象屿速传 上海 30 30 0 建发上海 0 60 60 中远海运 镇江 10 10 0 小计 40 100 60 合约 持仓量（万手）LC2401 12.70 LC2402 2.40 LC2403 1.70 LC2404 2.27 LC2405 1.40 LC2406 0.51 LC2407 15.83 LC2408 0.75 LC2409 1.26 LC2410 0.48 LC2411 0.74 1 LC2401 8.57/90 2019 2019 8 6-7/Bald Hill 2020 7 10 2 PB 12 8 PB 1.85X 3 2019&4 PB-Band -5-Wind Wind 1.2 0.34%300 2.06%6.88%0.25%0.90%2.70%3.96%0204060801001200.001.002.003.004.005.006.007.008.009.002019/1/12019/2/12019/3/12019/4/12019/5/12019/6/12019/7/12019/8/12019/9/12019/10/12019/11/12019/12/12020/1/12020/2/12020/3/12020/4/12020/5/12020/6/12020/7/12020/8/12020/9/12020/10/12020/11/12020/12/12021/1/1/5 Wind 6-6.00%-4.00%-2.00%0.00%2.00%4.00%6.00%8.00%300 -6-1.3 18.80%10.80/6.63%11.62/MB 5.41%14.00/MB 1.88%16.68/4.23%21.50/6.04%45.15/2.39%278.50/3.66%850.00/Wind 7 0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%16%18%20%-7-2.2.1 10 10 2023 10 13.62GW 141.49%1-10 142.56GW 144.78%8 GW 9 GW Wind 14.00-5.41%-13.8%-19.1%-58.6%16.68-1.88%-6.0%-11.9%-50.9%6.10-7.58%-14.1%-28.7%-76.8%21.50-4.23%-20.7%-25.1%-45.6%21.15-4.94%-11.7%-23.1%-48.4%3.20-5.88%-19.0%-23.8%-59.5%13.35-3.96%-17.8%-24.8%-52.7%8.7-6.95%-15.1%-26.9%-54.8%4.1-3.57%-20.6%-22.1%-57.6%13.5-3.91%-15.6%-22.6%-50.5%107.0-2.73%-10.8%-42.2%-64.1%10.1-18.55%-35.7%-60.7%-77.9%10.80-18.80%-35.3%-60.3%-77.6%10.25-9.69%-29.1%-57.6%-78.4%11.62-6.63%-26.7%-56.4%-76.3%7.0-3.2%-10.4%-16.3%-44.5%8.0-4.2%-11.6%-19.2%-42.1%19.4-4.0%-8.9%-30.7%-59.6%12.7-9.0%-18.4%-39.2%-62.6%14.9-7.7%-14.8%-34.8%-58.7%6.9 0.0%0.0%7.0%3.0%7.9 0.0%-2.5%4.6%-2.6%7.0 0.0%-1.4%4.5%-2.1%2.1 0.2%-2.4%-1.9%-18.0%2985.0-1.0%-4.8%-25.7%9.7%20.0-2.0%-5.9%-24.4%10.8%1.5 0.5%-0.9%10.9%-19.5%0.7-1.7%-4.9%-0.3%-22.6%5.2-5.5%-5.5%-7.1%-39.5%APT 18.1 0.6%1.1%2.0%8.4%12.2 0.4%1.7%2.5%12.4%16.7-0.6%-2.3%12.1%-17.6%31.6 0.0%-1.3%11.3%5.3%8.6 3.0%-1.7%-20.5%-29.0%9.7 3.2%-3.0%-17.5%-25.2%19.5-4.9%-4.9%-7.1%-18.8%1.6 0.0%-7.5%-6.1%-31.7%45.2-6.0%-12.1%-4.4%-51.7%278.5 2.4%4.7%20.6%11.6%2.4 0.0%4.3%4.3%-11.1%3.0 0.0%-11.8%7.1%-56.2%-8-2.2 11 11 84.1 39.8%8.9%680.9 35.2%10 11 11 11 6 15.85-16.45%+13.90%9 12 13%05101520251-2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2020年 2021年 2022 年 20230204060801001201 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 0204060801001201 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 0500001000001500002000002500003000003500001 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 0.00%10.00%20.00%30.00%40.00%50.00%60.00%70.00%80.00%90.00%100.00%7 月电动车渗透率 8 月电动车渗透率 9 月电动车渗透率10月电动车渗透率 11 月电动车渗透率0501001501-2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2020 年 2021年 2022年 2023-9-11 11.25-0.06%9.2%14 15%autosinnovate autosinnovate 2.3 2023 10 77.3GWh 23.2%0.1%23.6GWh 30.5%0.3%-6.7%53.6GWh 69.3%37.0%3.3%2023 10 39.2GWh 28.3%7.6%12.3GWh 31.4%14.0%0.8%26.8GWh 68.5%36.4%10.9%16 Gwh 17 GWh 11 2023 11 22.04-5.1%5.41-1.21%-5.98%16.63-6.26%+26.14%18 19 0200004000060000800001000001200001400002019-08-012019-11-012020-02-012020-05-012020-08-012020-11-012021-02-012021-05-012021-08-012021-11-012022-02-012022-05-012022-08-012022-11-012023-02-012023-05-012023-08-012023-11-01BEV+PHEV0.00%2.00%4.00%6.00%8.00%10.00%12.00%2019-05-012019-08-012019-11-012020-02-012020-05-012020-08-012020-11-012021-02-012021-05-012021-08-012021-11-012022-02-012022-05-012022-08-012022-11-012023-02-012023-05-012023-08-012023-11-01渗透率01020304050607080902019-062019-102020-022020-062020-102021-022021-062021-102022-022022-062022-102023-022023-062023-10-10010203040502019-072019-102020-012020-042020-072020-102021-012021-042021-072021-102022-012022-042022-072022-102023-012023-042023-072023-10LFP -10-20 Wind 21/Wind 2.4 0100002000030000400005000060000700001 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2020 2021 2022 20230500001000001500002000002500001 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2020 2021 2022 20230.000.501.001.502.002.50 0.000.501.001.502.002.503.00/-11-Canalys 23 Q3 2.82%2.93 PC 2023 Q3 11.65%6560 11 2023 11 7320+19%+3%22 23 Wind 24 25 PC 3.LC2401 10.31/1.33%18.80%10.80/6.63%11.62/1 7996 5.02%2 0100020003000400050001 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2019 2020 2021 2022 20230100020003000400050006000700080009000100001 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023-20.00%-10.00%0.00%10.00%20.00%30.00%0.000.501.001.502.002.503.003.504.004.50全球智能手机出货量（亿 台）同比（%）-40%-20%0%20%40%60%0.000.200.400.600.801.00全球PC 出货量（亿台）同比（%）-12-3 30410 31130 2.37%21455+7.98%4-2.20/5 11 19857+8%-17%20851/13592+35%-19%19993/26/27/28/29-/30 31 0102030405060702018/3/1 2019/3/1 2020/3/1 2021/3/1 2022/3/1 2023/3/1/0102030405060702018/3/1 2019/3/1 2020/3/1 2021/3/1 2022/3/1 2023/3/1/0100020003000400050006000-20-10010203040506070/-20020406080碳酸锂-氢氧化锂（万元/吨）电池级氢氧化锂（万元/吨）电池级碳酸锂（万元/吨）0200040006000800010000120001 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 522019 2020 2021 2022 2023010002000300040005000600070001 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 522019 2020 2021 2022 2023-13-32 33 34 35-Wind Mysteel 36 37 Greenbushes 23Q3 41.40+4.81%39.2-9%FOB 3740/Q4 2984/FY24H2 24 140-150 01000020000300004000050000600001 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 522019 2020 2021 2022 2023050001000015000200002500030000350001 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 522020 2021 2022 202301000020000300004000050000600007000080000900000500010000150002000025000300002018 1 2018 5 2018 9 2019 1 2019 5 2019 9 2020 1 2020 5 2020 9 2021 1 2021 5 2021 9 2022 1 2022 5 2022 9 2023 1 2023 5 2023 9/0510152025303540452020 1 2020 4 2020 7 2020 10 2021 1 2021 4 2021 7 2021 10 2022 1 2022 4 2022 7 2022 10 2023 1 2023 4 2023 7 2023 10 锂精矿进口量（实物万吨）-澳大利 亚0500010000150002000025000300001 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2021 2022 202305000100001500020000250001 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2021 2022 2023-14-Mt Cattlin 23 Q3 72549+24.96%76631 24 21-23 2625/SC6 3000/FOB 636/Marion 23Q3 12.8+6.67%12.8+5%1870/3.7%28%23 6 Pilbara 23Q3 14.71-11%14.64-17%SC6.0 2553/-33%P680 23 Wodgina 23Q3 11.25+9.76%6.25 32%24 1 Core 23Q3 20692+40.91%23424 SC5.2%1.31 1 24 23H2-24H1 8-9 38 产量（t）2022Q3 2022Q4 2023Q1 2023Q2 2023Q3 环比 同比 Greenbushes 361000 379000 356000 395000 414000 4.81%14.68%Marion 108000 121000 120000 120000 128000 6.67%18.52%Cattlin 17606 16404 38915 58059 72549 24.96%312.07%Pilbara 147105 162151 148100 162800 147100-9.64%0.00%Wodgina 64000 92000 110000 102500 112500 9.76%75.78%Finniss 3589 14685 20692 40.91%-合计 697711 770555 776604 853044 894841 4.90%28.3%资料来 源：公司 公告、中 泰证 券研 究 所 Sigma 23Q3 38823 5.7%3800 2488/9 2 13 39 Sigma 单位 23Q3 产量 吨 38823 品位%5.70%销量 吨 38000 均价 美元/吨 2488 现金成 本 FOB 美元/吨 577 Olaroz 2023Q3 Olaroz 4453+35%-12%4554+22%+33%25981/-36%Olaroz 2023 7 15 -15-40 Olaroz 2022Q1 2022Q2 2022Q3 2022Q4 2023Q1 2023Q2 2023Q3 同比 环比 产量（吨）2,972 3,445 3289 4253 4102 5059 4453 35%-12%销量（吨）3,157 3,440 3721 3131 2904 3430 4554 22%33%销售均 价（美元/吨）27,236 41,033 40317 46706 52738 38062 25981-36%-32%现金成 本（美元/吨）3,811 4,301 4563 4682 4924 5882 6008 32%2%毛利（美元/吨）23,425 36,732 35754 42024 47814 32180 19973 毛利率 86%90%89%90%91%85%77%Livent 2023 20%2021 Livent LCE 2.3 2022 LCE 2021 23 20%2023 4 2025 7 41 Livent 资料来 源：公司 公告、中 泰证 券研 究 所 SQM 2023Q3 4.3 Q4 3.0/12%42 SQM -16-资料来 源：公司 公告、中 泰证 券研 究 所 Alb 2023 30%-35%30-40%22-25CAGR 20-30%43 资料来 源：公司 公告、中 泰证 券研 究 所 4.6.04%45.15/-17-2.39%278.50/3.66%850.00/12 49.34/1 10 3215 REO 10.18%2 10 3284 60%REO 1970-33.70%-61.29%1 Lynas 23Q3 REO 3609-19%+3%1526-18%+46%2 Mt Pass 23 10766-0.89%+1.10%11 6228-1.5%5.MB 14.00/-5.41%MB 16.68/-1.88%4.23%21.50/5.88%3.20/1 2023 10 0.86+5%+28%2 44/45：N35/资料来 源：百川 资讯、中 泰证 券研 究 所 资料来 源：百川 资讯、中 泰证 券研 究 所 46：47：资料来 源：海关 总署、中 泰证 券研 究 所 资料来 源：海关 总署、中 泰证 券研 究 所 0204060801001202021/6/8 2021/12/8 2022/6/8 2022/12/8 2023/6/8 2023/12/8氧化镨钕市场价(万元/吨)北方稀土挂牌价（万元/吨）050100150200250300350 N35 01000200030004000500060002020/2/12020/5/12020/8/12020/11/12021/2/12021/5/12021/8/12021/11/12022/2/12022/5/12022/8/12022/11/12023/2/12023/5/12023/8/1混合碳酸稀土-缅甸 未列名氧化物稀土金属化合物020004000600080001000012000140001 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2020 2021 2022 2023-18-48 MB 49 50 51 Wind 6.SHFE 13.18/+1.87%LME 0.03%16855/SHFE+LME 1879 58535 1 2023 11&15.48 3.32%16.85%2 11 2.25 48.98%3.47%2023 11 43 298.4 3.7%1.2%200 97.9 1.6%3.0%300 149.2 2.7%8.9%400 51.4 10.3%18.6%05101520253035404550-1001020304050607080-/MB/0.002.004.006.008.0010.0012.0014.0016.00-20020406080价差（硫酸钴-金属钴）金属钴（万元/吨）硫酸钴（万元/吨）-20020406080价差（四氧化三钴-金属钴）金属钴（万元/吨）四氧化三钴（万元/吨）0200040006000800010000120002018-012018-052018-092019-012019-052019-092020-012020-052020-092021-012021-052021-092022-012022-052022-092023-012023-052023-09 52：SHFE/53：LME/-19-7.6.85/7.93/-0.02%1700-0.58%1140 资料来 源：Wind、中 泰证 券研 究所 资料来 源：Wind、中 泰证 券研 究所 54：55：SHFE&LME 资料来 源：Wind、中 泰证 券研 究所 资料来 源：Wind、中 泰证 券研 究所 56：57：资料来 源：Wind、中 泰证 券研 究所 资料来 源：Wind、中 泰证 券研 究所 800001000001200001400001600001800002000002200002400002600002800002018-06-302018-10-312019-02-282019-06-302019-10-312020-02-292020-06-302020-10-312021-02-282021-06-302021-10-312022-02-282022-06-302022-10-312023-02-282023-06-302023-10-31SHFE 800018000280003800048000580002018-04-262018-08-262018-12-262019-04-262019-08-262019-12-262020-04-262020-08-262020-12-262021-04-262021-08-262021-12-262022-04-262022-08-262022-12-262023-04-262023-08-26期货官方价:LME3 个月镍 美元/吨05001000150020002018-08-032018-12-032019-04-032019-08-032019-12-032020-04-032020-08-032020-12-032021-04-032021-08-032021-12-032022-04-032022-08-032022-12-032023-04-032023-08-032023-12-03镍矿:港口库存:总计 周 万吨0500001000001500002000002500003000003500004000004500002017-09-112018-01-112018-05-112018-09-112019-01-112019-05-112019-09-112020-01-112020-05-112020-09-112021-01-112021-05-112021-09-112022-01-112022-05-112022-09-112023-01-112023-05-112023-09-11:LME:1502002503003501 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2019 2020 2021 2022 20230501001502002503003501 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023-20-5.79%4440+0.68%8160+0.25%8.SHFE 20.75/5.93%LME 24650/4.67%SHFE+LME 351 12662 11 5100+6.25%11 15520+1.31%10 25298.93 5123.0 124.2%248.35%1500 265.0%14.4%58：/59：/资料来 源：Wind、中 泰证 券研 究所 资料来 源：Wind、中 泰证 券研 究所 60：61：资料来 源：百川 资讯、中 泰证 券研 究 所 资料来 源：百川 资讯、中 泰证 券研 究 所 62：SHFE/63：LME/0.001.002.003.004.005.006.007.008.002016-05-302016-10-302017-03-302017-08-302018-01-302018-06-302018-11-302019-04-302019-09-302020-02-292020-07-312020-12-312021-05-312021-10-312022-03-312022-08-312023-01-312023-06-302023-11-30锑精矿（万元/吨）0.001.002.003.004.005.006.007.008.009.0010.002016-05-232016-10-232017-03-232017-08-232018-01-232018-06-232018-11-232019-04-232019-09-232020-02-232020-07-232020-12-232021-05-232021-10-232022-03-232022-08-232023-01-232023-06-232023-11-23锑锭（万元/吨）01000200030004000500060007000800090002020-02-212020-05-212020-08-212020-11-212021-02-212021-05-212021-08-212021-11-212022-02-212022-05-212022-08-212022-11-212023-02-212023-05-212023-08-212023-11-21 0200040006000800010000120002020-02-212020-05-212020-08-212020-11-212021-02-212021-05-212021-08-212021-11-212022-02-212022-05-212022-08-212022-11-212023-02-212023-05-212023-08-212023-11-21三氧化二锑库存-21-资料来 源：Wind、中 泰证 券研 究所 资料来 源：Wind、中 泰证 券研 究所 64：Mysteel 65：SHFE&LME 资料来 源：Mysteel、中 泰证 券研 究 所 资料来 源：Wind、中 泰证 券研 究所 66：67：资料来 源：Wind、中 泰证 券研 究所 资料来 源：Wind、中 泰证 券研 究所 68：锡锭进口量（吨）69：0500001000001500002000002500003000003500004000002018-12-082019-06-082019-12-082020-06-082020-12-082021-06-082021-12-082022-06-082022-12-082023-06-082023-12-08SHFE 锡价格01000020000300004000050000600002008-12-082009-12-082010-12-082011-12-082012-12-082013-12-082014-12-082015-12-082016-12-082017-12-082018-12-082019-12-082020-12-082021-12-082022-12-082023-12-08LME 锡价格020004000600080001000012000140002021-12-082022-02-082022-04-082022-06-082022-08-082022-10-082022-12-082023-02-082023-04-082023-06-082023-08-082023-10-082023-12-08锡锭：库存：中国（周）02000400060008000100001200014000160002018-12-082019-06-082019-12-082020-06-082020-12-082021-06-082021-12-082022-06-082022-12-082023-06-082023-12-08LME 库存 SHFE 库存02000400060008000100001200012 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 2023 2022 2021 2020 201902000400060008000100001200014000160001800012 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019-22-70 Wind 9.-60.00%-40.00%-20.00%0.00%20.00%40.00%60.00%80.00%01020304050602002-022002-092003-042003-112004-062005-012005-082006-032006-102007-052007-122008-072009-022009-092010-042010-112011-062012-012012-082013-032013-102014-052014-122015-072016-022016-092017-042017-112018-062019-012019-082020-032020-102021-052021-122022-072023-022023-09半导体:销售额:合计:当月值 半导体:销售额:合计:当月同比 资料来 源：Wind、中 泰证 券研 究所 资料来 源：Wind、中 泰证 券研 究所 01000200030004000500060002018-012018-052018-092019-012019-052019-092020-012020-052020-092021-012021-052021-092022-012022-052022-092023-012023-052023-09锡锭进口量050001000015000200002500030000350004000045000500002018-012018-052018-092019-012019-052019-092020-012020-052020-092021-012021-052021-092022-012022-052022-092023-012023-052023-09锡精矿进口量-23-612 15%612 5%15%612-10%+5%612 10%612 10%612-10%+10%612 10%612 A 300 500