SAC S0850517120001 SAC S0850520090001 SAC S0850515120001 2023 12 10+050010001500200025000.400.500.600.700.800.901.001.101.201.301.402016/012016/042016/072016/102017/012017/042017/072017/102018/012018/042018/072018/102019/012019/042019/072019/102020/012020/042020/072020/102021/012021/042021/072021/102022/012022/042022/072022/102023/012023/042023/072023/10/5500/1.1 2016 6 7 22 3-6 30%25%22 10 23 8 800/1000/8 900/1 2023 11 17 wind 2 XVFUuNnQoNrQqOnOnQsNrQaQbPaQsQoOoMsRkPqRpNeRpOrQ9PqQuMwMnQuMxNmPmP1.2 22 3 11 wind 3 2 vs 3 vs 05001000150020002500300005101520253035402020/012020/042020/072020/102021/012021/042021/072021/102022/012022/042022/072022/102023/012023/042023/072023/10/5500/05001000150020002500300005101520252020/012020/042020/072020/102021/012021/042021/072021/102022/012022/042022/072022/102023/012023/042023/072023/10/5500/4 vs 10001500200025003000350040004500500005101520252020/012020/042020/072020/102021/012021/042021/072021/102022/012022/042022/072022/102023/012023/042023/072023/10/100015002000250030003500400045005000246810121416182020/012020/042020/072020/102021/012021/042021/072021/102022/012022/042022/072022/102023/012023/042023/072023/10/5 vs 3 2.1 22/+0.9%/-0.8%/-10.8%/+1.2%+5.7%/+2.3%/-1.1%/+4.2%6 Q2 Q3 22Q2 23Q3 21 6%wind 4 7%-20-100102030402017-022017-082018-022018-082019-022019-082020-022020-082021-022021-082022-022022-082023-022023-08-20-100102030402017-032017-092018-032018-092019-032019-092020-032020-092021-032021-092022-032022-092023-032023-09 4 2.2 23 22-10%4-20%-23.2%+19%+35.1%23 22 8%wind 5 9-60-40-200204060802017-022017-082018-022018-082019-022019-082020-022020-082021-022021-082022-022022-082023-022023-08 0%2%4%6%8%10%12%020004000600080001000012000140002015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 23.1-10 5 2.3 Q3 Q3 5 6 Q3 571/+12.6%/+2.8%561+4.3%10%wind sxcoal 6 11%55657585951 1 1 4 2 2 3 1 3 4 4 3 5 2 6 1 6 4 7 2 7 5 8 3 9 2 10 1 10 4 11 2 12 1 12 4 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023556065707580851 1 1 4 2 2 3 1 3 4 4 3 5 2 6 1 6 4 7 2 7 5 8 3 9 2 10 1 10 4 11 2 12 1 12 4 2019 2020 2021 2022 20234004505005506006502020 2021 2022 2023 12 6 2.4 Q3 Q3 9 2367-362 1721 27002900 8 7 8-10 2020 10 13 wind 7 14 0501001502002503003504004505002 月 3 月 4 月 5 月 6 月 7 月 8 月 9 月 10月 11 月 12月 2019 2020 2021 2022 202360%62%64%66%68%70%72%74%76%78%80%3 月 4 月 5 月 6 月 7 月 8 月 9 月 10 月 11 月 12月 2019 2020 2021 2022 20237 3.1 23 10+9%2022+24%22+27.5%1-10+3.1%4.38%1-10/+5.1%/+0.6%/+1.6%/+6.6%72%15 wind 16%-40-30-20-100102030405060-500501001502002503002011-022012-022013-022014-022015-022016-022017-022018-022019-022020-022021-022022-022023-02/%-20-100102030402018-122019-032019-062019-092019-122020-032020-062020-092020-122021-032021-062021-092021-122022-032022-062022-092022-122023-032023-062023-09 YOY YOY YOY YOY 8 3.2 22 23 22/+5.2%/0.7%13.2/4.9 37.4%-1.7pct 2016-2021 2.9pct 23 1-9/+1.9%/0.2%9.98/3.72 37.2%9 5.46 54.6%20182022 43.6%/47.6%/49.9%/52.6%/53.9%17 sxcoal 18 012345678 2019 2020 2021 2022 23.1-9024681012142016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 23.1-922.1-9 9 4.1+1-10 3.8+66.8%3836 23002700+CCI 3800 4700 11 20 124/79/CCI 4700 7-10 130/125/170/151/19 wind sxcoal 10 20/05001000150020002500300035004000450050001-2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2020 2021 2022 2023-600-400-20002004006008000500100015002000250030002015-092016-032016-092017-032017-092018-032018-092019-032019-092020-032020-092021-032021-092022-032022-092023-032023-09:-(CCI 3800):-(CCI 4700):(Q5500):10 4.2 4861 3206 2649 9 2.74 1.19 77%4861 43%22 73%59%2649 81%22 21%22%9 3206 3275 22 0 12%21 sxcoal 22 2023 1-9%0500010000150002000025000300002018 2019 2020 2021 2022 23.1-9 22.1-9 11,16209,59%,3275,12%,5927,22%,283,1%,96,0.3%,47,0.2%,1616,6%4.3 52%20162020 85%2021 37%22 44%/33%/12%/7%1-9 54%40%52%5%2%/28%/8%/6%9 7314+61%+2137 131%+549 37%-46 21%-56-9%23 sxcoal 24 2023 1-9%0100020003000400050006000700080002018 2019 2020 2021 2022 23.1-9 22.1-9 12,3771,51%,171,2%,2029,28%,559,8%,411,6%,290,4%,83,1%wind sxcoal 2016 10%23 1-9 16%1 25 0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%16%18%2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 23.1-9 4.4 13-2016 44438 5810 50248 53391-3143 2017 44571 6760 51331 51451-120 2018 45406 6424 51830 51952-122 2019 48060 7326 55385 55204 181 2020 48510 7169 55679 55771-92 2021 48991 5461 54451 54542-91 2022 49351 6358 55709 55618 91 23.1-9 37166 7294 44460 44182 278 22.1-9 37107 4518 41625 41726-101 4000500060007000800090001000001 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 122023 2022 2021 2020 201915002000250030003500400001 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 122023 2022 2021 2020 20194000500060007000800090001000001 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 122023 2022 2021 2020 20195.1 2023 11 16 3576+12.7%9338+12%2023 11 13 CCTD 7038+29.9%2023 11 17 633+31.9%271+2.2%26 cctd sxcoal 27 CCTD 28 29 14 30040050060070080001 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 122023 2022 2021 2020 20195.2 2023 11 17 829/+3.4%/-0.5%772/+3.2%/-3.6%2023 11 17 207.3/-4.2%/+101.9%30 sxcoal mysteel 31 0200400600800100001 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 122023 2022 2021 2020 2019600800100012001400160018002000220001 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 122023 2022 2021 2020 2019 32 33 010020030040050060070001 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 122023 2022 2021 2020 201915 700800900100011001200130001 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 122023 2022 2021 2020 20196.1 2 wind 2022 45.6+10.5%21/22 2426 8000 1.7%6000 1.2%45 16/2017 333615 352400 3.31%27000 101900 2018 352559 5.68%369800 4.94%43444 24500 103000 2019 361164 2.44%384600 4.00%19405 10800 100000 2020 378986 4.93%390200 1.46%26822 9000 96699 2021 405883 7.10%412600 5.74%29897 3000 84761 2022 433140 6.72%455900 10.49%30257 3000 74504 2023E 441570 1.95%469577 3.00%10431 2000 68074 2024E 449601 1.82%476621 1.50%9530 1500 61543 2025E 457217 1.69%482340 1.20%8616 1000 54927 2026E 463906 1.46%487164 1.00%7690 1000 48237 6.2/2021 56%/18%/7%/6%/4%90.2%23 4.9%46.2 22 2425 1.9%/1.1%34 2021 wind 35,55.8%,17.9%,7.1%,5.6%,3.9%17 30323436384042444648 wind 3 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E 2028E 2029E 2030E 7.33 7.63 8.40 8.69 9.24 9.72 10.18 10.65 11.13 11.62 12.12 12.63 YOY 4.7%4.1%10.1%3.6%6.3%5.2%4.8%4.6%4.5%4.4%4.3%4.2%11.90 12.46 12.97 13.32 13.94 14.62 15.05 15.44 15.15 15.09 15.07 14.93 5.05 5.18 5.67 5.73 6.07 6.14 6.17 6.25 6.35 6.43 6.49 6.52 YOY 2.5%2.6%9.4%1.2%5.9%1.2%0.5%1.3%1.5%1.2%0.9%0.6%3.58 3.70 3.91 4.14 4.25 4.40 4.60 4.68 4.80 4.96 5.16 5.40 1.30 1.36 1.34 1.36 1.26 1.38 1.49 1.53 1.56 1.61 1.67 1.74 YOY 5.7%4.1%-1.1%1.1%-7.2%10.0%7.3%3.1%2.2%3.0%3.7%4.3%0.49 0.50 0.53 0.56 0.58 0.64 0.70 0.74 0.80 0.88 0.98 1.10 0.35 0.37 0.41 0.42 0.44 0.48 0.52 0.56 0.60 0.66 0.73 0.81 YOY 18.2%5.0%11.3%2.5%6.0%7.5%9.8%7.5%6.9%9.1%10.7%11.8%2.09 2.82 3.29 3.65 4.33 5.05 5.79 6.54 7.29 8.04 8.79 9.54 0.41 0.47 0.66 0.76 0.90 1.01 1.17 1.33 1.49 1.65 1.81 1.97 YOY 10.8%15.1%40.6%16.3%17.9%12.3%15.6%13.7%12.2%10.8%9.8%8.9%2.04 2.54 3.07 3.93 5.60 6.70 7.90 9.20 10.50 11.80 13.10 14.40 0.22 0.26 0.33 0.43 0.57 0.71 0.84 0.98 1.13 1.28 1.43 1.58 YOY 26.6%16.6%25.2%30.8%33.7%23.7%18.7%17.1%15.2%13.2%11.7%10.4%6.3 23-25 5.4%2.5%26-30 4.4%1.1%18 GDP 2326 4.9%1%2326+0.5pct 5.4%1.8%+1 2pct 2326-0.5pct 4.4%0.2%-1-2pct 2426 CAGR 1.5%2.4%0.5%1%wind 4 6.4 19 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 5.9%1.2%0.5%1.3%5.9%2.0%1.3%2.2%5.9%0.5%-0.3%0.4%2.5%2.0%1.0%0.0%2.5%3.0%2.0%1.0%2.5%1.0%0.0%-1.0%2.0%2.0%1.0%0.0%2.0%3.0%2.0%1.0%2.0%1.0%0.0%-1.0%3.6%4.4%5.9%6.1%3.6%5.8%7.3%7.4%3.6%3.0%4.6%4.9%-1.2%2.0%1.0%0.0%-1.2%3.0%2.0%1.0%-1.2%1.0%0.0%-1.0%13.5%5.0%2.0%2.0%13.5%7.0%4.0%4.0%13.5%3.0%0.0%0.0%4.9%1.9%1.1%1.4%4.9%2.8%2.1%2.4%4.9%0.9%0.2%0.4%5 wind sxcoal 20 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 345959 347966 344424 375483 419071 442645 449236 454481 458637 YOY 8.9%0.6%-1.0%9.0%11.6%5.6%1.5%1.2%0.9%324326 325455 321287 348626 396138 407658 414729 420477 425161 YOY 9.0%0.3%-1.3%8.5%13.6%2.9%1.7%1.4%1.1%21633 22510 23137 26857 22933 34986 34507 34004 33476 YOY 7.3%4.1%2.8%16.1%-14.6%52.6%-1.4%-1.5%-1.6%345500 346711 349089 375034 384561 403560 411256 415996 422813 1.6%0.4%0.7%7.4%2.5%4.9%1.9%1.2%1.6%1 192239 201798 211123 239518 247611 262146 265379 266651 270080 YOY 5.0%5.0%4.6%13.4%3.4%5.9%1.2%0.5%1.3%2 21364 21056 21609 22259 21945 20958 21669 21886 21886 YOY 1.4%-1.4%2.6%3.0%-1.4%-4.5%3.4%1.0%0.0%3 28011 27706 29433 30395 32553 33721 35199 37286 39575 YOY 0.7%-1.1%6.2%3.3%7.1%3.6%4.4%5.9%6.1%4 24321 22608 24705 24014 21561 21313 21739 21957 21957 YOY-10.1%-7.0%9.3%-2.8%-10.2%-1.2%2.0%1.0%0.0%5 21888 20765 17138 16750 17754 20151 21158 21582 22013 YOY 30.6%-5.1%-17.5%-2.3%6.0%13.5%5.0%2.0%2.0%287823 293933 304008 332936 341424 358289 365145 369362 375511 83.3%84.8%87.1%88.8%88.8%88.8%88.8%88.8%88.8%345885 347174 349321 375285 384935 403928 411624 416364 423181 YOY 1.6%0.4%0.6%7.4%2.6%4.9%1.9%1.2%1.6%385 463 232 251 375 368 368 368 368 YOY-34.4%20.2%-50.0%8.3%49.3%-1.7%0.0%0.0%0.0%-73 792-4897 199 34135 38716 37612 38117 35456 5500/647 587 572 1012 1270 1000 900 850 800 6.5 20 6 wind sxcoal 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 51896 55516 55772 54385 55609 58865 59573 60053 60692 YOY 0.8%7.0%0.5%-2.5%2.3%5.9%1.2%0.8%1.1%111388 118826 121570 125409 131900 133878 134547 135220 135896 YOY 1.6%6.7%2.3%3.2%5.2%1.5%0.5%0.5%0.5%45406 48060 48510 48991 49351 49535 49513 49491 49602 YOY 1.9%5.8%0.9%1.0%0.7%0.4%0.0%0.0%0.2%6490 7457 7262 5465 6387 9580 10059 10562 11090 YOY-6.4%14.9%-2.6%-24.7%16.9%50.0%5.0%5.0%5.0%52060 55344 55858 54551 55643 58431 59307 59900 59900 YOY 0.7%6.3%0.9%-2.3%2.0%5.0%1.5%1.0%0.0%51952 55204 55771 54542 55618 58399 59275 59868 59868 YOY 1.0%6.3%1.0%-2.2%2.0%5.0%1.5%1.0%0.0%108 140 87 9 25 32 32 32 32 YOY-53.1%30.0%-37.6%-89.5%178.5%25.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%-164 172-86-166-34 435 266 153 793/1782 1695 1495 2528 2840 2250 2150 2200 2100 6.6 21 3 6 9 900/24 24 700/900/36 5500/wind 37/0500100015002000250030002015-012015-072016-012016-072017-012017-072018-012018-072019-012019-072020-012020-072021-012021-072022-012022-072023-012023-076.7 22 725 725 720 720 719 719 719 719 719 719 728 728 728 727 724 723 719 709 701 704 699 709 713 4505005506006507007508002018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2750/6 1800/4-5 24 23 23 24 38/wind 23 0500100015002000250030003500400045002018-01 2018-07 2019-01 2019-07 2020-01 2020-07 2021-01 2021-07 2022-01 2022-07 2023-01 2023-07:():(A8%,V25%,S0.9%,G85,):2#(A10%,V22%,0.8%S,G82.5):6.8 23 7.1 2024 Mccloskey 23/24E 6000 128/118/-56%/-7.3%4700 87/86/-32.3%/-1.3%24 5500 900/Mccloskey 24 2020 2021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E 217.6 255.3 210.9 322.0 289.6 282.8 277.9 270.5 159.9 146.0 163.3 176.3 183.0 187.0 190.0 193.2 139.0 126.6 117.8 137.1 145.2 151.6 159.6 165.1 122.6 124.4 126.5 111.6 116.5 116.2 116.2 115.7 89.4 90.7 91.6 84.6 87.7 87.4 86.4 86.4 75.4 86.7 110.7 89.0 90.4 86.9 81.0 76.6 144.6 151.7 138.1 127.7 131.0 131.7 132.5 134.0 948.5 981.4 959.0 1048.3 1043.4 1043.6 1043.6 1041.6 2020 2021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E 399.6 425.9 458.3 506.6 512.0 512.0 515.0 518.0 199.5 198.8 178.7 197.6 200.0 202.0 202.0 202.0 143.2 152.6 142.0 133.0 125.4 122.7 120.0 117.2 73.0 64.8 70.8 70.2 70.2 72.2 74.2 75.2 52.1 55.9 53.7 56.5 56.0 55.5 55.5 54.5 23.7 35.4 34.8 40.7 39.0 39.0 40.0 39.0 25.7 30.6 40.6 43.6 39.9 38.5 37.2 35.5 916.8 964.0 979.0 1048.2 1042.5 1042.0 1043.9 1041.4 7 7.2 Mccloskey 2%3%Mccloskey 24 FOB 256/23-15%2250/306/211/2650/1900/+1.6%/-29.9%Mccloskey 8 25 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E 2028E 2029E 2030E 74.2 81.7 80.3 63.9 74.9 104.2 103.6 97.2 102.9 104.8 103.3 103.9 103.6 61.8 65.3 57.0 73.9 70.7 76.2 83.5 89.0 91.4 93.4 95.8 98.3 101.4 62.4 61.7 51.2 58.3 56.5 54.5 55.0 55.7 54.9 54.1 53.3 52.6 51.8 35.8 35.8 34.1 34.9 33.5 32.2 32.2 31.6 30.9 30.3 29.7 29.4 28.8 11.0 10.7 9.9 11.2 9.8 8.8 8.8 8.7 8.5 8.4 8.3 8.2 8.2 28.9 24.4 19.8 21.3 22.7 20.1 21.5 23.4 23.0 22.7 22.5 22.1 22.1 14.3 12.5 11.6 12.0 2.9 2.1 6.3 9.0 10.5 11.6 11.8 11.7 11.6 76.5 79.2 67.1 78.6 73.2 75.5 77.3 78.2 79.9 80.0 81.2 80.8 80.6 365.0 371.3 331.1 354.1 344.2 373.6 388.3 392.6 402.0 405.4 406.0 407.1 408.1 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E 2028E 2029E 2030E 178.9 184.4 171.8 167.0 160.5 155.0 164.0 166.0 169.5 172.5 173.2 171.2 171.5 32.8 34.8 27.0 26.3 28.1 28.8 28.3 28.8 29.8 29.8 25.0 25.0 25.0 51.0 45.6 37.9 40.8 42.2 44.9 44.4 44.4 44.4 44.4 44.4 45.4 45.4 27.7 33.8 23.8 21.5 25.6 46.0 49.0 50.0 51.0 51.0 51.0 53.0 53.0 28.9 28.2 28.7 32.6 36.8 42.0 42.0 42.0 42.0 42.3 42.5 42.8 42.9 52.5 50.3 45.9 57.0 54.6 60.3 61.4 61.8 65.2 65.2 70.2 70.4 70.4 371.8 377.1 335.1 345.3 347.8 377.0 389.2 393.0 401.9 405.2 406.3 407.8 408.2 8.23+24+26 9.27 SAC S0850517120001 010-58067998 Email SAC S0850515120001 021-23154113 Email 021-23212208 Email SAC S0850520090001 021-23219760 Email 28 1.6 6 2.A 500 10%-10%10%-10%6 10%-10%10%-10%29